The UBS is currently being sued by the US Government to hand out names of 52,000 US citizens that according to the US Government are customers in UBS and have avoided paying tax of their interest rates. Prior to this the UBS and the US Government settled in another lawsuit where UBS agreed to pay 780 million USD in penalty and hand out 250-300 names of US clients.
UBS and the Swiss banking secrecy more generally is under severe pressure from Obama who during his campaign stated that he will make sure that accounts in tax heavens held by US citizens will be taxed. The EU leaders followed Obama’s stance during the weekend in a pre G20-meeting. The Swiss government opposes this and is very reluctant to let go of the Swiss banking secrecy. However with political pressure from EU and the US chances are very small that Switzerland will win this battle.
The balance sheets of UBS and Credit Suisse added together are 8 times the GDP of Switzerland and the earnings in the banking sector accounts for approximately 14% of Swiss GDP. This makes Switzerland and especially the CHF very vulnerable towards the current turmoil around the Swiss banking secrecy.
On this note we expect that will the CHF will be under pressure when the case against the Swiss banking secrecy evolves.
23 února 2009
23/2 CRUDE & GOLD TODAY
CRUDE
After all the market noise last week relating to the expiry of March the market can once again focus on a single contract for a while. At least until US Oil begin to roll their 95.000+ long position in April on the 6th March.
Looking at 1st month continuation contract the market has now been trading sideways since the middle of November while the demand has deteriorated. It indicates that OPEC has had some success in stabilizing prices. It remains to be seen if the recent narrowing of time spreads is a confirmation that a bottom has been made.
First major level of resistance can be found at $44,75/90 which is trend line resistance area on both CLJ9 and CLc1. Support is 37.00 followed by 33.10 and then 32.40 (the big one).
The EURUSD broke higher on Friday taking out resistance from the 1,4719 high. This could indicate some consolidation for the Euro near term which again should lend some support to Commodities.
Support: 37.00 33.10 32.40
Resistance: 41.35 43.45 44.75/90 46.34
GOLD
Gold has made a small pull back from $1007.7 despite a weaker dollar. The continued flow into futures and especially ETF’s should keep the market supported for now. A pull back should find buyers well ahead of main support at $951 with both 970 and 962 offering support on route.
Resistance located at 1008 with nothing above that before the 2008 high at 1034 (1032.70 on spot).
After all the market noise last week relating to the expiry of March the market can once again focus on a single contract for a while. At least until US Oil begin to roll their 95.000+ long position in April on the 6th March.
Looking at 1st month continuation contract the market has now been trading sideways since the middle of November while the demand has deteriorated. It indicates that OPEC has had some success in stabilizing prices. It remains to be seen if the recent narrowing of time spreads is a confirmation that a bottom has been made.
First major level of resistance can be found at $44,75/90 which is trend line resistance area on both CLJ9 and CLc1. Support is 37.00 followed by 33.10 and then 32.40 (the big one).
The EURUSD broke higher on Friday taking out resistance from the 1,4719 high. This could indicate some consolidation for the Euro near term which again should lend some support to Commodities.
Support: 37.00 33.10 32.40
Resistance: 41.35 43.45 44.75/90 46.34
GOLD
Gold has made a small pull back from $1007.7 despite a weaker dollar. The continued flow into futures and especially ETF’s should keep the market supported for now. A pull back should find buyers well ahead of main support at $951 with both 970 and 962 offering support on route.
Resistance located at 1008 with nothing above that before the 2008 high at 1034 (1032.70 on spot).
18 února 2009
18/2 Gold increases for a second straight day
Gold increases for a second straight day on speculation the recession will deepen, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a haven asset. Silver also gained. Gold futures for April delivery climbed $2.10, or 0.2 percent, to $969.60 an ounce at 11:28 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold gained 5.5 percent last year.
Silver futures for March delivery rose 17 cents, or 1.2%, to $14.18 an ounce. Silver jumped 24% this year through yesterday after dropping 24% in 2008.
Silver futures for March delivery rose 17 cents, or 1.2%, to $14.18 an ounce. Silver jumped 24% this year through yesterday after dropping 24% in 2008.
17 února 2009
17/2 GOLD UP, COPPER DOWN
Copper has now given back most of the China and Obama stimulus enduced rallly. A break below 148 (todays low) could open up for a move back towards the January low at 139.20. Only word of caution is that the LME Copper still has some way to go yet before support gets broken 3220 (currently 3280).
The reason behind the ongoing slump is continued build in stockpiles combined with the deepening global economic crisis. Copper is a good economic activity indicator and therefore worth keeping a close eye on.
The reason behind the ongoing slump is continued build in stockpiles combined with the deepening global economic crisis. Copper is a good economic activity indicator and therefore worth keeping a close eye on.
17/2 GOLD CONTINUES TO RALLY
Gold continues to rally as investors scramble to find a safe haven to protect their assets. This latest move comes as global stock markets once again has come under pressure with the S&P close to the important $800 support level. The move happened despite the stronger dollar overnight with the Euro breaking down through support at 1.2700.
Holdings of Gold in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD:arcx) has climbed to a new record of 985.86 metric tons which is the equivalent of 348,000 lots of Gold futures. Considering that total open interest in Gold futures on COMEX stands at 361,000 exchange we are looking at a monster.
Support: 954 945 931
Resistance: 980 990
Holdings of Gold in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD:arcx) has climbed to a new record of 985.86 metric tons which is the equivalent of 348,000 lots of Gold futures. Considering that total open interest in Gold futures on COMEX stands at 361,000 exchange we are looking at a monster.
Support: 954 945 931
Resistance: 980 990
17/2 Nobody wants to own EM currencies right now
EURPLN 4.88 last , EURHUF 308.50 last, EURCZK 29.37 last.
Increased risk aversion, deepening economic crisis and worries about eastern Europe’s financial stability continue to weigh on EM currencies. EUR/HUF is approaching critical levels, which will trigger at least verbal intervention and could derail the monetary easing cycle. Although the Polish central bank kept its distance with intervention so far, EUR/PLN approaching 5.00 could trigger stronger reaction from the authorities.
Increased risk aversion, deepening economic crisis and worries about eastern Europe’s financial stability continue to weigh on EM currencies. EUR/HUF is approaching critical levels, which will trigger at least verbal intervention and could derail the monetary easing cycle. Although the Polish central bank kept its distance with intervention so far, EUR/PLN approaching 5.00 could trigger stronger reaction from the authorities.
16 února 2009
16/2 CRUDE OIL & GOLD
A quiet day in progress as US pit sessions will be closed for President’s Day. Both markets will be trading normal hours electronically but with reduced activity.
CLH9 is trading unchanged despite news that Japan’s economy contracted by the most since 1974 and the Nikkei slumped to a 26 year low.
Sup: 3500 3328
Res: 3850 4055 4220
GCJ9 traded sideways Friday after the strong rally during the week. A stronger dollar should cap the upside for now. Any correction however should meet new demand as market is very focused on a $1,000 target. How EURUSD is going to cope with the important 1,2700 area could decide the direction for the day.
CLH9 is trading unchanged despite news that Japan’s economy contracted by the most since 1974 and the Nikkei slumped to a 26 year low.
Sup: 3500 3328
Res: 3850 4055 4220
GCJ9 traded sideways Friday after the strong rally during the week. A stronger dollar should cap the upside for now. Any correction however should meet new demand as market is very focused on a $1,000 target. How EURUSD is going to cope with the important 1,2700 area could decide the direction for the day.
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