Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY
- Akciove trhy ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie v ciernych cislach podporene zverejnenymi lepsimi datami o predaji domov, spotrebitelskej dovere a ziadostiam o podporu v nezamestnanosti. Tu je dolezite uvedomit si, ake vyznamne su udaje o spotrebitelskej dovere v US ekonomike, kedze 70% US HDP je zalozeneho na spotrebe. Inymi slovami, cim vyssia spotreba v USA, vacsia sanca na ekonomicke ozivenie po celom svete.
- Rast bol limitovany informaciami o problemoch vladou vlastnenej spolocnosti Dubai World, ktora ma tazkosti splacat uvery vo vyske 59 mld. USD a snazi sa o dohodu o odlozeni splatok.
- Klucova rezistencia pre S&P500 je 1114 a 5843 pre DAX.
- Doporucujeme predaje po narastoch, kedze na trhoch je potrebna urcita konsolidacia a kvoli nizkej likvidite nebudu mat obchodnici zaujem o prelomenie dolezitych urovni.
- Na US trhoch sa neobchoduje kvoli sviatku Thanksgiving.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5784 s cielom na 5744. Stop nad 5826.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5349 s cielom na 5318. Stop nad 5346.
ROPA -
Ceny ropy vzrastli o takmer 2 USD po zverejneni udajov, ze dopyt po rope rastol uz druhy tyzden po sebe. Zasoby ropy boli zverejnene na urovni 1019k vs. 1500k ocakavanych.
- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 77.50 s cielom na 75.50 USD/barel. Stop nad 78.20.
ZLATO-
Zlato rastlo k novym maximam podporene dopytom po aktivach poskytujucich ochranu pred slabnucim USD.
- Zlatu pomohli taktiez informacie o tom, ze India by mohla kupit dalsie zlato od IMF. Po precitani si tychto informacii sa zda, ze centralne banky prestavaju verit USD a nakupuju zlato (tu s jedna o prirodzenu diverzifikaciu zo strany centralnych bank), ale treba si uvedomit, ze IMF je nuteny predavat svoje zlate rezervy aby mal dostatok hotovosti na poskytovanie uverov.
- Zlato je o 34% vyssie od zaciatku roku.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je negativny. Odporucame zrealizovat zisky na dlhych poziciach.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 18.48 s cielom na 18.20 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.70.
EUR/USD -
Vcerajsie oslabenie USD sa neda pripisat lepsim eknomickym udajom z USA. Jedine vysvetlenie bola nizka likvidita na trhu, na ktoru sme vcera upozornovali ako aj spekulacie, ze objem USD Carry trades moze este narast.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1.5100 s cielom na 1.5000 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.5150.
EUR/CZK -
Vyvoj zavisi od postoja investorov k riziku, obchodovania na akciovych trhoch a vyvoja EURUSD.
- Pokles EURCZK zostava stale limitovany.
- Podnikatelska dovera ako aj nalada spotrebitelov zaznamenali narast, ale este su stale vyznamne nizsie ako pred krizou.
- Podnitalsky sektor bude este celit problemom s postupnym pomalym ozivenim, zatial co spotrebitelia sa budu musiet vysporiadat s rastucou nezamestnanostou.
- Rezistencia je na 26.65 a podporna uroven na 25.75 EURCZK.
www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk
26 listopadu 2009
26/11 Daily commentary
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving central banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.
Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.
It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.
Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?
Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.
America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.
I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.
Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.
Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving central banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.
Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.
It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.
Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?
Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.
America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.
I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.
Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.
23 listopadu 2009
23/11 Ekonomický komentář
Připravil Radim DOhnal, Saxo Bank
Zlato
Zlato nadále láme rekordy, myšleno cena jedné trojské unce v dolarech. Právě to, že je cena vyjádřena v dolarech, znamená, že slabší dolar vykazuje dražší zlato. Poslední dny jsou ve ze znamení pokračujících obav o budoucnost dolaru znamená dražší zlato i stříbro. V pondělí dopoledne se dostalo až ba 1165, čímž velmi rychle překonalo náš cíl pro pondělí.
Ropa
Cena ropy je nadále tažená očekáváním zlepšující se ekonomické situace rozvíjejících se trhů Asie, kde nadále panuje vysoká energetická náročnost a také oslabujícím dolarem, což jde ruku v ruce. Pro pondělí jsme na ropu pozitivně naladěni, čekáme posilování k úrovni 80 USD/barel.
www.saxobank.cz
Zlato
Zlato nadále láme rekordy, myšleno cena jedné trojské unce v dolarech. Právě to, že je cena vyjádřena v dolarech, znamená, že slabší dolar vykazuje dražší zlato. Poslední dny jsou ve ze znamení pokračujících obav o budoucnost dolaru znamená dražší zlato i stříbro. V pondělí dopoledne se dostalo až ba 1165, čímž velmi rychle překonalo náš cíl pro pondělí.
Ropa
Cena ropy je nadále tažená očekáváním zlepšující se ekonomické situace rozvíjejících se trhů Asie, kde nadále panuje vysoká energetická náročnost a také oslabujícím dolarem, což jde ruku v ruce. Pro pondělí jsme na ropu pozitivně naladěni, čekáme posilování k úrovni 80 USD/barel.
www.saxobank.cz
20 listopadu 2009
20/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank
AKCIE
Americke akciove trhy boli negativne ovplyvnene obavami, ze ich rast predbehol vyhliadky na ozivenie ekonomiky.
- Kedze buduci tyzden vo stvrtok je v USA Thanksgiving Day a v piatok sa burzy uzavru o 13.00 NY casu, je mozne ze investori budu uzatvarat svoje pozicie a realizovat zisky. Nasledne by sme mohli vidiet narast pred Vianocnymi sviatkami.
- Dnes neocakavame ziadne vyznamne data zo ziadnej zo stran Atlantiku.
- Zostavame pozitivne naladeni na rizikovejsie aktiva a nas ciel je S&P500 na urovni 1121.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1090 s cielom na 1102. Stop pod 1085.
ROPA
- Pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania sme boli svedkami poklesu zaujmu o rizikovejsie aktiva co bolo vyvolane vlnou znizovania ratingov a odhadovanymi horsimi vysledkami niektorych spolocnosti. Pokles na akciovych trhoch nasledne vyvolal pokles aj cien ropy.
- Pocas azijskeho obchodovania sa trhy mierne korigovali, co by malo pokracovat aj pocas obchodovania v Europe. Kedze dnes neocakavame vyznamnejsie makrodata, obchodovanie by malo by pokojne.
- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Vidime priestor pre dalsi pokles. Rezistencna uroven sa nachadza na 78.65 USD/barel. Kratkodoby ciel pri obchodovani vidime na 76.00.
ZLATO-
Zlato sa posuva na vyssie urovne aj vdaka vyssiemu dopytu spotrebitelov v Cine. Cina bola jediny trh kde rastol dopyt po zlatych sperkoch v 3Q. Na druhej strane sa dopyt na tradicnych trhoch v Indii a na Strednom Vychode vyrazne prepadol.
- Na trhoch vidiet zaujimavu situaciu, ked akciove trhy ako aj ceny zlata rastu, co je velmi nezvycajne. Skor alebo neskor pride ku korekcii a my si myslime ze to budu akcie, ktore sa posunu na nizsie urovne.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny.Vidime konsolidaciu v pasme 1140 -1150 USD/uncu.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je neutralny. Kratkodoba rezistencia je na urovni 18.60. V pripade posunu vyssie, by sme smerovali ku 18.80. Ak nie, tak obchodovanie by mohlo zostat v pasme 18.20-18.60 USD/uncu.
EUR/USD -
Celkovo sa pasmo, v ktorom sa obchoduje EURUSD ztensuje. Vzhladom na chybajuce makrodata by obchodovanie malo byt ovplyvnene len zaujmom/nezaujmom o rizikovejsie aktiva.
- Ani vsak horsia nalada na akciovych trh, by nemala pomoct USD vyrazne zhodnotit.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavane, ze narast by mal zostat na urovni 1.4935, alebo maximalne na 1.4975, pred poklesom ku 1.4845-50 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.5015.
AKCIE
Americke akciove trhy boli negativne ovplyvnene obavami, ze ich rast predbehol vyhliadky na ozivenie ekonomiky.
- Kedze buduci tyzden vo stvrtok je v USA Thanksgiving Day a v piatok sa burzy uzavru o 13.00 NY casu, je mozne ze investori budu uzatvarat svoje pozicie a realizovat zisky. Nasledne by sme mohli vidiet narast pred Vianocnymi sviatkami.
- Dnes neocakavame ziadne vyznamne data zo ziadnej zo stran Atlantiku.
- Zostavame pozitivne naladeni na rizikovejsie aktiva a nas ciel je S&P500 na urovni 1121.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1090 s cielom na 1102. Stop pod 1085.
ROPA
- Pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania sme boli svedkami poklesu zaujmu o rizikovejsie aktiva co bolo vyvolane vlnou znizovania ratingov a odhadovanymi horsimi vysledkami niektorych spolocnosti. Pokles na akciovych trhoch nasledne vyvolal pokles aj cien ropy.
- Pocas azijskeho obchodovania sa trhy mierne korigovali, co by malo pokracovat aj pocas obchodovania v Europe. Kedze dnes neocakavame vyznamnejsie makrodata, obchodovanie by malo by pokojne.
- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Vidime priestor pre dalsi pokles. Rezistencna uroven sa nachadza na 78.65 USD/barel. Kratkodoby ciel pri obchodovani vidime na 76.00.
ZLATO-
Zlato sa posuva na vyssie urovne aj vdaka vyssiemu dopytu spotrebitelov v Cine. Cina bola jediny trh kde rastol dopyt po zlatych sperkoch v 3Q. Na druhej strane sa dopyt na tradicnych trhoch v Indii a na Strednom Vychode vyrazne prepadol.
- Na trhoch vidiet zaujimavu situaciu, ked akciove trhy ako aj ceny zlata rastu, co je velmi nezvycajne. Skor alebo neskor pride ku korekcii a my si myslime ze to budu akcie, ktore sa posunu na nizsie urovne.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny.Vidime konsolidaciu v pasme 1140 -1150 USD/uncu.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je neutralny. Kratkodoba rezistencia je na urovni 18.60. V pripade posunu vyssie, by sme smerovali ku 18.80. Ak nie, tak obchodovanie by mohlo zostat v pasme 18.20-18.60 USD/uncu.
EUR/USD -
Celkovo sa pasmo, v ktorom sa obchoduje EURUSD ztensuje. Vzhladom na chybajuce makrodata by obchodovanie malo byt ovplyvnene len zaujmom/nezaujmom o rizikovejsie aktiva.
- Ani vsak horsia nalada na akciovych trh, by nemala pomoct USD vyrazne zhodnotit.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavane, ze narast by mal zostat na urovni 1.4935, alebo maximalne na 1.4975, pred poklesom ku 1.4845-50 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.5015.
19 listopadu 2009
19/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie poklesm z 13-mesacnych maxim na zaklade predpovedi o horsich hospodarskych vysledkov technologickych firiem Autodesk Inc. a Salesforce.com Inc .
- Negativne posobia aj udaje z trhu nehnutelnosti v USA kde tzv. Housing starts (nove zacate stavby domov) poklesli o 11% na mesacnej baze. Tento jav sposobili spekulacie o nepredlzeni danovych ulav pre prvokupcov domov a len potvrdilo ako je trh nehnutelnosti zavisly od vladnej podpory ozivenia pri stale rastucej nezamestnanosti.
- Dnes budu zverejnene udaje o malobchodnych trzbach (ocakavame narast), Leading Indicators (ocakavame pokles)a Philadelphia Fed. Index (ocakavame narast). Vsetky z uvedenych budu mat vplyv na pohyby na trhoch.
- Zostavame pozitivne naladeni na rizikovejsie aktiva a nas ciel je S&P500 na urovni 1121.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1114. Stop pod 1100.
ROPA
- Po vcerajsom zverejneni nizsich zasob ropy a paliv ako aj nizsej produkcie rafinerii a dovozu ropy do USA sa ceny posunuli na vyssie urovne.
- Cena zemneho plynu poklesla o viac ako 6% kedze mierne pocasie znizuje dopyt po vykurovacich olejoch a palivach.
- Dnes mame na ropu neutralny vyhlad. Ceny sa dotykaju trendovej rezistencnej urovne 79.90. Dnesne obchodovanie vidime v pasme 79 - 80.00 USD/barel.
ZLATO
- Zlato sa pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania opat posunulo na nove maxima na urovni okolo 1152 USD/uncu. Ako hlavne faktory vidime spekulacie, oslabovanie USD a snaha niektorych centralnych bank diverzifikovat svoje rezervy nakupom zlata.
- Zaujimavost: Britska kralovska mincovna zostvornasobila produkciu zlatych minci, kedze investori hladaju sposob ako sa hedzovat proti oslabovaniu USD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Zatial co podporna uroven 1140 odolava, doporucujeme sa pozerat na znovuotestovanie urovni nad 1150 USD/uncu. Predtym vsak vidime moznost posunu ku 1132.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Ak by sme sa chceli posunut na uroven 18.75 bude dolezite aby podporna uroven 18.40 USD/uncu odolala. Vidime vsak aj riziko hlbsej korekcie smerom ku 18.10 USD/uncu.
EUR/USD -
Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Kratkodoba podporna uroven sa nachadza na 1.4880 a silna podporna uroven je na 1.4810 EURUSD pred navratom spat na 1.4980, mozno 1.5015.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie poklesm z 13-mesacnych maxim na zaklade predpovedi o horsich hospodarskych vysledkov technologickych firiem Autodesk Inc. a Salesforce.com Inc .
- Negativne posobia aj udaje z trhu nehnutelnosti v USA kde tzv. Housing starts (nove zacate stavby domov) poklesli o 11% na mesacnej baze. Tento jav sposobili spekulacie o nepredlzeni danovych ulav pre prvokupcov domov a len potvrdilo ako je trh nehnutelnosti zavisly od vladnej podpory ozivenia pri stale rastucej nezamestnanosti.
- Dnes budu zverejnene udaje o malobchodnych trzbach (ocakavame narast), Leading Indicators (ocakavame pokles)a Philadelphia Fed. Index (ocakavame narast). Vsetky z uvedenych budu mat vplyv na pohyby na trhoch.
- Zostavame pozitivne naladeni na rizikovejsie aktiva a nas ciel je S&P500 na urovni 1121.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1114. Stop pod 1100.
ROPA
- Po vcerajsom zverejneni nizsich zasob ropy a paliv ako aj nizsej produkcie rafinerii a dovozu ropy do USA sa ceny posunuli na vyssie urovne.
- Cena zemneho plynu poklesla o viac ako 6% kedze mierne pocasie znizuje dopyt po vykurovacich olejoch a palivach.
- Dnes mame na ropu neutralny vyhlad. Ceny sa dotykaju trendovej rezistencnej urovne 79.90. Dnesne obchodovanie vidime v pasme 79 - 80.00 USD/barel.
ZLATO
- Zlato sa pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania opat posunulo na nove maxima na urovni okolo 1152 USD/uncu. Ako hlavne faktory vidime spekulacie, oslabovanie USD a snaha niektorych centralnych bank diverzifikovat svoje rezervy nakupom zlata.
- Zaujimavost: Britska kralovska mincovna zostvornasobila produkciu zlatych minci, kedze investori hladaju sposob ako sa hedzovat proti oslabovaniu USD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Zatial co podporna uroven 1140 odolava, doporucujeme sa pozerat na znovuotestovanie urovni nad 1150 USD/uncu. Predtym vsak vidime moznost posunu ku 1132.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Ak by sme sa chceli posunut na uroven 18.75 bude dolezite aby podporna uroven 18.40 USD/uncu odolala. Vidime vsak aj riziko hlbsej korekcie smerom ku 18.10 USD/uncu.
EUR/USD -
Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Kratkodoba podporna uroven sa nachadza na 1.4880 a silna podporna uroven je na 1.4810 EURUSD pred navratom spat na 1.4980, mozno 1.5015.
18 listopadu 2009
18/11 Forex Market Commentary
John Hardy, Consulting FX Specialist, Saxo Bank
USD/risk divergence proves fleeting...
Yesterday's action saw a brief, if rather marked divergence in the USD direction relative to the direction of risk appetite, as the USD showed a rallying tendency (if still within the recent range) despite equities closing rather close to recent highs.
This drew considerable interest on our part, considering the degree to which the USD and risk have tended to move in complete negatively-correlated lockstep for months now. With the action in Asia and Europe so far today, however, it appears this was merely a fleeting development. Below we try to unravel the reasons behind the churning action in the USD.
Trying to make sense of the greenback
Technically speaking...or does the market speak that language at the moment?
Technically speaking, this market is a miserable mess as every attempt by the market to tip its hat in any direction proves fleeting and treacherous. The major USD crosses that had crossed to the strong USD side of their weekly pivots have now crossed back to the weak side of those pivots, eliminating what little upside momentum had developed for the greenback.
Since we seem to just be churning in a range here, the only thing we can do at present is glance over at coincident fundamental indicators: risk appetite and interest rate spreads. These two inputs reveal a conflicting story, perhaps a key reason why we're seeing an inability for the market to commit one way or another.
Risk appetite (high risk appetite supports USD carry trade): Risk appetite remains very high by some measures, with equities at highs for the cycle (both in the US and in emerging markets), junk bond spreads close to lows, and FX volatility also close to lows for the cycle.
Interesting to note, however, that the credit market is showing some signs of worry, with CDS prices (default insurance) having risen for a month now even as equities have rallied back from their recent sell-off. The credit market often led the broader market in risk in 2006-08.
Interest rate spreads: generally, the forward expectations for the major central banks have been falling over the last few weeks, and despite falling yields at the front end of the US yield curve, spreads have actually contracted slightly in favor of the USD for the likes of AUDUSD and USDCAD, while EUR vs. US spreads have remained relatively flat. This is acting as a brake for dramatic new lows for the USD, while risk appetite is trying to push the USD in the opposite direction.
Zooming out
So the only thing we can do here considering the above inputs is to zoom out a bit and look for the technical levels that indicate a bigger break of the range and try to identify any key event risk that could serve as a trigger for a bigger directional move. For EURUSD, the technical breakouts lie at 1.5063 and 1.4808 at the moment. On the event risk side of things, it's a bit of a tougher call. Nothing looks "big enough" for the remainder of this week and next week features the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday.
Just ahead of the holiday we have the first revision of the first estimate of US GDP and we have the monthly Conference Board confidence number, either of which could receive a lot of focus if the market continues to show signs of indecisiveness. We should also never forget the "Thanksgiving surprise" of 2006, when EURUSD rocketed above 1.3000 for the first time in 18 months on Thanksgiving Day. Still, if coincident indicators continue to show the type of confusion we are seeing at present, the market action could remain muddled and treacherous, with false breakouts, etc.
MPC Confusion
The Bank of England was out with an odd, split decision in which the two dissenters were on opposite sides of the majority. The dovish dissenter, Miles, voted for £40 billion in QE (vs. the £25 billion agreed upon) and the hawkish dissenter, Dale, voted for no QE. The MPC discussed changing the interest rate on excess reserves, which would be considered dovish and therefore pound-bearish. The market responded by strongly bidding up the 3-month short sterling STIRs, as less tightening was priced into the forward curve.
On the more pound-supportive side of the equation, the MPC raised its inflation forecasts to a 2.7% annualized rate in Q1 of next year. This is only 0.3% from the level requiring the bank to write a letter to parliament and makes current policy look extraordinarily accommodative if inflation does tick up to those levels. All in all, this may prove a relatively pound-supportive development despite the initial reaction, which perhaps focused on the dovish dissenter and the excess reserves debate.
US Data
The US data today not especially supportive of risk, with CPI coming in slightly above expected and more interesting, the housing starts and building permits numbers diving well below expectations and close to the lows for the cycle. The US housing story is not over with, as millions of sub-prime-like mortgages (Alt-A and Option ARMs) face a reset in the coming 18 months or so. A very high percentage of these will end in defaults/foreclosures and serve as a large potential supply for extra housing on the market.
Looking ahead
Again, we twiddle our thumbs and wait (not so) patiently for the market to show its hand. The US 10-year yield benchmark is worth of our attention as it is trading close to the trendline support and the 200-day moving average just below 3.30% today. It's perhaps interesting to watch the oil market today. Crude prices have banged on the 80-dollar per barrel door for a month now, never really managing to break above it. We're at that price level going into today's US inventory data. Also, look out for the SNB's Hildebrand out speaking later - EURCHF has done absolutely zilch of late and could be ripe for a surprise.
Chart: US 10-year note yields
Again, we note that 10-year yields are trading up against important support after having traded in a very constricted range for months. No even risk suggests a dramatic move here, but certainly an interesting level to watch as an indicator on overall risk appetite if yields are able to drop through this level (suggests more worry than we are seeing in other asset markets at present). This is especially important, as always, for JPY crosses.
USD/risk divergence proves fleeting...
Yesterday's action saw a brief, if rather marked divergence in the USD direction relative to the direction of risk appetite, as the USD showed a rallying tendency (if still within the recent range) despite equities closing rather close to recent highs.
This drew considerable interest on our part, considering the degree to which the USD and risk have tended to move in complete negatively-correlated lockstep for months now. With the action in Asia and Europe so far today, however, it appears this was merely a fleeting development. Below we try to unravel the reasons behind the churning action in the USD.
Trying to make sense of the greenback
Technically speaking...or does the market speak that language at the moment?
Technically speaking, this market is a miserable mess as every attempt by the market to tip its hat in any direction proves fleeting and treacherous. The major USD crosses that had crossed to the strong USD side of their weekly pivots have now crossed back to the weak side of those pivots, eliminating what little upside momentum had developed for the greenback.
Since we seem to just be churning in a range here, the only thing we can do at present is glance over at coincident fundamental indicators: risk appetite and interest rate spreads. These two inputs reveal a conflicting story, perhaps a key reason why we're seeing an inability for the market to commit one way or another.
Risk appetite (high risk appetite supports USD carry trade): Risk appetite remains very high by some measures, with equities at highs for the cycle (both in the US and in emerging markets), junk bond spreads close to lows, and FX volatility also close to lows for the cycle.
Interesting to note, however, that the credit market is showing some signs of worry, with CDS prices (default insurance) having risen for a month now even as equities have rallied back from their recent sell-off. The credit market often led the broader market in risk in 2006-08.
Interest rate spreads: generally, the forward expectations for the major central banks have been falling over the last few weeks, and despite falling yields at the front end of the US yield curve, spreads have actually contracted slightly in favor of the USD for the likes of AUDUSD and USDCAD, while EUR vs. US spreads have remained relatively flat. This is acting as a brake for dramatic new lows for the USD, while risk appetite is trying to push the USD in the opposite direction.
Zooming out
So the only thing we can do here considering the above inputs is to zoom out a bit and look for the technical levels that indicate a bigger break of the range and try to identify any key event risk that could serve as a trigger for a bigger directional move. For EURUSD, the technical breakouts lie at 1.5063 and 1.4808 at the moment. On the event risk side of things, it's a bit of a tougher call. Nothing looks "big enough" for the remainder of this week and next week features the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday.
Just ahead of the holiday we have the first revision of the first estimate of US GDP and we have the monthly Conference Board confidence number, either of which could receive a lot of focus if the market continues to show signs of indecisiveness. We should also never forget the "Thanksgiving surprise" of 2006, when EURUSD rocketed above 1.3000 for the first time in 18 months on Thanksgiving Day. Still, if coincident indicators continue to show the type of confusion we are seeing at present, the market action could remain muddled and treacherous, with false breakouts, etc.
MPC Confusion
The Bank of England was out with an odd, split decision in which the two dissenters were on opposite sides of the majority. The dovish dissenter, Miles, voted for £40 billion in QE (vs. the £25 billion agreed upon) and the hawkish dissenter, Dale, voted for no QE. The MPC discussed changing the interest rate on excess reserves, which would be considered dovish and therefore pound-bearish. The market responded by strongly bidding up the 3-month short sterling STIRs, as less tightening was priced into the forward curve.
On the more pound-supportive side of the equation, the MPC raised its inflation forecasts to a 2.7% annualized rate in Q1 of next year. This is only 0.3% from the level requiring the bank to write a letter to parliament and makes current policy look extraordinarily accommodative if inflation does tick up to those levels. All in all, this may prove a relatively pound-supportive development despite the initial reaction, which perhaps focused on the dovish dissenter and the excess reserves debate.
US Data
The US data today not especially supportive of risk, with CPI coming in slightly above expected and more interesting, the housing starts and building permits numbers diving well below expectations and close to the lows for the cycle. The US housing story is not over with, as millions of sub-prime-like mortgages (Alt-A and Option ARMs) face a reset in the coming 18 months or so. A very high percentage of these will end in defaults/foreclosures and serve as a large potential supply for extra housing on the market.
Looking ahead
Again, we twiddle our thumbs and wait (not so) patiently for the market to show its hand. The US 10-year yield benchmark is worth of our attention as it is trading close to the trendline support and the 200-day moving average just below 3.30% today. It's perhaps interesting to watch the oil market today. Crude prices have banged on the 80-dollar per barrel door for a month now, never really managing to break above it. We're at that price level going into today's US inventory data. Also, look out for the SNB's Hildebrand out speaking later - EURCHF has done absolutely zilch of late and could be ripe for a surprise.
Chart: US 10-year note yields
Again, we note that 10-year yields are trading up against important support after having traded in a very constricted range for months. No even risk suggests a dramatic move here, but certainly an interesting level to watch as an indicator on overall risk appetite if yields are able to drop through this level (suggests more worry than we are seeing in other asset markets at present). This is especially important, as always, for JPY crosses.
18/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Akciove trhy sa potacali v priebehu vcerajsieho obchodovania medzi medzi ziskami a stratami, co bolo zapricinene rastom akcii producentov komodit a horsimi udajmi o priemyselnej produkcii v USA. Celkovo produkcia vzrastla len 0.1%, co bolo zapricinene prvym poklesom vyroby za posledne 4 mesiace.
- Spolocnosti Wal-Mart Stores a Exxon Mobil rastli potom ako Warren Buffett zverejnil nakup ich akcii.
- Akcie Caterpillar a ITT poklesli po tom ako boli zverejnene udaje o nizsej priemyslenej produkcii.
- Akcie Sprint Nextel (treti najvacsi mobilny operator v USA) rastli 13%, po tom ako spolocnost vyhlasila, ze splatila 1 mld. USD zo svojich dlhov v ramci „cistenia“ suvahy a poklese prijmov.
- Home Depot a Lowe’s Cos poklesli vzhladom na nizsie zisky z predaja.
- Akcie SunPower Corp. poklesli 19% po tom co spolocnost ohlasila, ze niektore produkcne naklady boli podcenene a zle zauctovane.
- Dnes budu zverejnene udaje o inflacii CPI a Core CPI (ocistene o potraviny a energie, ktore by mali byt o nieco nizsie ako su ocakavania).
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po prelomene hranice 1111 s cielom pri 1117. Stop pod 1109.
ROPA -
Aj napriek zverejneniu horsich udajov o priemyselnej produkcii a dalsich makroekonomickych dat v USA, komodity pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania rastli. Ropa sa posunula na vyssie urovne, co bolo zapricinene predpovedami o poklese zasob ropy v USA. Tieto udaje budu zverejnene zajtra.
- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. V priebehu dnesneho dna je mozne, ze bude na dennych maximach pod urovnou 80.00 USD/barel. Obchodovanie s ropou sa podla nasho nazoru moze posunut spat na urovne 78.50.
ZLATO-
Zlato bolo v poslednom obdobi posuvane az na historicke maxima okolo urovne 1142 USD/uncu hlavne slabnucim USD a spekulaciami.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Je mozne, ze pre zlato bude tazke sa posunut cez uroven 1145 USD/uncu. Vidime riziko vacsej kratkodobej korekcie smerom k 1132 alebo az ku 1127.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 18.40 alebo po prelomeni hranice 18.30 s cielom na 18.20 USD/uncu.
EUR/USD -
Horsie zverejene vysledky a rastuca nezamestnanost ponukaju FED-u dost priestoru na ponechanie urokovych sadzieb na nizkych urovniach pocas dlhsieho obdobia.
- Zda sa, ze USD nedokaze najst dostatocnu podporu v negativnych spravach. Je to zapricinene spekulativnymi poziciami niektorych hracov. Trend jednoznacneho posunu EURUSD vyssie sa zda, ze vyprchava aspon nateraz. Na druhej strane nemozeme ocakavat vyrazny obrat vzhladom na stale zaujimavu poziciu USD ako Carry trade meny.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavame, ze EURUSD najde rezistenciu na urovni 1.4900-10 pred znovuotestovanim 1.4825 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.4950
EUR/CZK- Posun na nizsie urovne je pre EURCZK stale limitovany. Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne makroekonomicke data.
- CZK sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme.
- Rezistencia je na 26.10 a podporna uroven na 25.301 EURCZK.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Akciove trhy sa potacali v priebehu vcerajsieho obchodovania medzi medzi ziskami a stratami, co bolo zapricinene rastom akcii producentov komodit a horsimi udajmi o priemyselnej produkcii v USA. Celkovo produkcia vzrastla len 0.1%, co bolo zapricinene prvym poklesom vyroby za posledne 4 mesiace.
- Spolocnosti Wal-Mart Stores a Exxon Mobil rastli potom ako Warren Buffett zverejnil nakup ich akcii.
- Akcie Caterpillar a ITT poklesli po tom ako boli zverejnene udaje o nizsej priemyslenej produkcii.
- Akcie Sprint Nextel (treti najvacsi mobilny operator v USA) rastli 13%, po tom ako spolocnost vyhlasila, ze splatila 1 mld. USD zo svojich dlhov v ramci „cistenia“ suvahy a poklese prijmov.
- Home Depot a Lowe’s Cos poklesli vzhladom na nizsie zisky z predaja.
- Akcie SunPower Corp. poklesli 19% po tom co spolocnost ohlasila, ze niektore produkcne naklady boli podcenene a zle zauctovane.
- Dnes budu zverejnene udaje o inflacii CPI a Core CPI (ocistene o potraviny a energie, ktore by mali byt o nieco nizsie ako su ocakavania).
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po prelomene hranice 1111 s cielom pri 1117. Stop pod 1109.
ROPA -
Aj napriek zverejneniu horsich udajov o priemyselnej produkcii a dalsich makroekonomickych dat v USA, komodity pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania rastli. Ropa sa posunula na vyssie urovne, co bolo zapricinene predpovedami o poklese zasob ropy v USA. Tieto udaje budu zverejnene zajtra.
- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. V priebehu dnesneho dna je mozne, ze bude na dennych maximach pod urovnou 80.00 USD/barel. Obchodovanie s ropou sa podla nasho nazoru moze posunut spat na urovne 78.50.
ZLATO-
Zlato bolo v poslednom obdobi posuvane az na historicke maxima okolo urovne 1142 USD/uncu hlavne slabnucim USD a spekulaciami.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Je mozne, ze pre zlato bude tazke sa posunut cez uroven 1145 USD/uncu. Vidime riziko vacsej kratkodobej korekcie smerom k 1132 alebo az ku 1127.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 18.40 alebo po prelomeni hranice 18.30 s cielom na 18.20 USD/uncu.
EUR/USD -
Horsie zverejene vysledky a rastuca nezamestnanost ponukaju FED-u dost priestoru na ponechanie urokovych sadzieb na nizkych urovniach pocas dlhsieho obdobia.
- Zda sa, ze USD nedokaze najst dostatocnu podporu v negativnych spravach. Je to zapricinene spekulativnymi poziciami niektorych hracov. Trend jednoznacneho posunu EURUSD vyssie sa zda, ze vyprchava aspon nateraz. Na druhej strane nemozeme ocakavat vyrazny obrat vzhladom na stale zaujimavu poziciu USD ako Carry trade meny.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavame, ze EURUSD najde rezistenciu na urovni 1.4900-10 pred znovuotestovanim 1.4825 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.4950
EUR/CZK- Posun na nizsie urovne je pre EURCZK stale limitovany. Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne makroekonomicke data.
- CZK sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme.
- Rezistencia je na 26.10 a podporna uroven na 25.301 EURCZK.
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