Good morning,
Well my enthusiasm remains and for those that like me bought some USDCAD yesterday and/or sold some GBPJPY you should be indeed happy this morning. The GBPJPY in particular had quite the move overnight and some the daily trend line coming it at 146.12 tested and held, but even this should have been enough to secure a profit of around 1% (depending on entry).
Otherwise overnight it was a relatively quiet Asian session with few notable developments. The bulk of the interest came from better than forecast AUD building data and a 7% worse result of the NZD dairy auction which both in their respective ways had legitimate impact on both the southern antipodeans.
This morning we walked into early comments from the ECB’s Stark regarding their unwillingness to aid/bailout Greece from their current situation. Despite being old news (first heard around the 14th of Dec.) it took the EURUSD cross lower and took out some fairly weak stops around the 1.4330 level trading to a low this morning of 1.4285. On the day I still favor this thing lower and would suggest that 1.4450/80 holds the topside today and provides good selling on an intraday basis with stops going in above 1.4530 targeting a return move to 1.4280/50.
On the data front today we’ve got UK PMI as well as Euro zone PPI and of course later tonight the FPMC minutes. On the UK data I would expect (almost irrespective of result) a sell in the Cable and what we’re likely to see is a small squeeze lower before the release looking for around 1.5970/80 and then a move higher into 1.6060/80 at which point I would begin selling it (not ruling out a run higher on stops into 1.6100), the name of the game would be to start small and average in for intraday trades.
In my view the recent small correction of the USD being given back is now all but complete and I would anticipate starting with tonight’s minutes and finishing in Friday’s NFP a stronger showing for the greenback across the board.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the JPY in general and more importantly the JPY crosses, I personally (call it a gut feeling) feel that this currency is in the very near term about to capitulate and start taking back some of its recent losses. The AUDJPY maybe one way to express this view… stay tuned there may be an option strategy in the pipeline soon….
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
06 ledna 2010
05 ledna 2010
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
And welcome to a bright new year and decade. You may be able to tell that I’m feeling somewhat chirpier and indeed actually excited about what the year has to offer (amazing what a few days away from the screens can do for you). Markets seem to have taken to the new year equally excitedly and what I had initially expected to be a rather quiet start to the year seems to be far more rambunctious. Traders are currently trying to reconcile an increase in risk appetite with a still strong greenback. The DXY is now looking to test the 77.40 area as part of the consolidation from the clean out late in the last year. I remain wary of shorting the big dollar but equally so warn punters not to get too excited about entering fresh longs just yet. In my view we need to see a little more consolidation and with NFP out on Friday we’re likely to see some volatile positioning ahead of the data.
Worth noting is the recent movement in the USDJPY and the bulk of the rationale behind it has been the spread widening between the 10y UST and the Japanese equivalent which at the close of last year was trading at historically wide levels of 2.55 but has since come in to be trading at 2.46 at print. This is systemically the result of the US 10yrs being well bid this week and as such we’ve seen the USDJPY drop from resistance at 93.10 to be now trading 91.90. Keep an eye on this picture as I firmly believe the USDJPY has further downside to come over the next few weeks. 91.80 marks intermediate support with 91.50 congestion proving to be probably a little too much wood to chop on its first attempt lower.
Further afield we take a look at the EURUSD which has for the very short term a bid tone, but again please refer to the general USD comments above for my view here. I remain bearish the EURUSD and save for some small bids coming through the market taking us into 1.4530 (definite sell) I look for 1.4385 to be tested and finally broken. Look for stops under this level for those that left prop books unattended over the holiday break.
On the Cable I remain bearish and see this move only as the result of yet against the greenback moving a little. On the day 1.6020/30 proves important while the topside is likely to be limited into 1.6150/60.
And for the first piece of positive sentiment, I am a buyer of the USDCAD again holding the 1.0320/80 zone as good buying opportunities with 1.0365 likely to hold any downside attempts on the day.
Data wise little of any significance today with the only bump in the road being the US pending home sales number and what likely to be an interesting speech from the Fed’s Hoenig regarding the ending of US government bailouts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
And welcome to a bright new year and decade. You may be able to tell that I’m feeling somewhat chirpier and indeed actually excited about what the year has to offer (amazing what a few days away from the screens can do for you). Markets seem to have taken to the new year equally excitedly and what I had initially expected to be a rather quiet start to the year seems to be far more rambunctious. Traders are currently trying to reconcile an increase in risk appetite with a still strong greenback. The DXY is now looking to test the 77.40 area as part of the consolidation from the clean out late in the last year. I remain wary of shorting the big dollar but equally so warn punters not to get too excited about entering fresh longs just yet. In my view we need to see a little more consolidation and with NFP out on Friday we’re likely to see some volatile positioning ahead of the data.
Worth noting is the recent movement in the USDJPY and the bulk of the rationale behind it has been the spread widening between the 10y UST and the Japanese equivalent which at the close of last year was trading at historically wide levels of 2.55 but has since come in to be trading at 2.46 at print. This is systemically the result of the US 10yrs being well bid this week and as such we’ve seen the USDJPY drop from resistance at 93.10 to be now trading 91.90. Keep an eye on this picture as I firmly believe the USDJPY has further downside to come over the next few weeks. 91.80 marks intermediate support with 91.50 congestion proving to be probably a little too much wood to chop on its first attempt lower.
Further afield we take a look at the EURUSD which has for the very short term a bid tone, but again please refer to the general USD comments above for my view here. I remain bearish the EURUSD and save for some small bids coming through the market taking us into 1.4530 (definite sell) I look for 1.4385 to be tested and finally broken. Look for stops under this level for those that left prop books unattended over the holiday break.
On the Cable I remain bearish and see this move only as the result of yet against the greenback moving a little. On the day 1.6020/30 proves important while the topside is likely to be limited into 1.6150/60.
And for the first piece of positive sentiment, I am a buyer of the USDCAD again holding the 1.0320/80 zone as good buying opportunities with 1.0365 likely to hold any downside attempts on the day.
Data wise little of any significance today with the only bump in the road being the US pending home sales number and what likely to be an interesting speech from the Fed’s Hoenig regarding the ending of US government bailouts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
And welcome to a bright new year and decade. You may be able to tell that I’m feeling somewhat chirpier and indeed actually excited about what the year has to offer (amazing what a few days away from the screens can do for you). Markets seem to have taken to the new year equally excitedly and what I had initially expected to be a rather quiet start to the year seems to be far more rambunctious. Traders are currently trying to reconcile an increase in risk appetite with a still strong greenback. The DXY is now looking to test the 77.40 area as part of the consolidation from the clean out late in the last year. I remain wary of shorting the big dollar but equally so warn punters not to get too excited about entering fresh longs just yet. In my view we need to see a little more consolidation and with NFP out on Friday we’re likely to see some volatile positioning ahead of the data.
Worth noting is the recent movement in the USDJPY and the bulk of the rationale behind it has been the spread widening between the 10y UST and the Japanese equivalent which at the close of last year was trading at historically wide levels of 2.55 but has since come in to be trading at 2.46 at print. This is systemically the result of the US 10yrs being well bid this week and as such we’ve seen the USDJPY drop from resistance at 93.10 to be now trading 91.90. Keep an eye on this picture as I firmly believe the USDJPY has further downside to come over the next few weeks. 91.80 marks intermediate support with 91.50 congestion proving to be probably a little too much wood to chop on its first attempt lower.
Further afield we take a look at the EURUSD which has for the very short term a bid tone, but again please refer to the general USD comments above for my view here. I remain bearish the EURUSD and save for some small bids coming through the market taking us into 1.4530 (definite sell) I look for 1.4385 to be tested and finally broken. Look for stops under this level for those that left prop books unattended over the holiday break.
On the Cable I remain bearish and see this move only as the result of yet against the greenback moving a little. On the day 1.6020/30 proves important while the topside is likely to be limited into 1.6150/60.
And for the first piece of positive sentiment, I am a buyer of the USDCAD again holding the 1.0320/80 zone as good buying opportunities with 1.0365 likely to hold any downside attempts on the day.
Data wise little of any significance today with the only bump in the road being the US pending home sales number and what likely to be an interesting speech from the Fed’s Hoenig regarding the ending of US government bailouts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
And welcome to a bright new year and decade. You may be able to tell that I’m feeling somewhat chirpier and indeed actually excited about what the year has to offer (amazing what a few days away from the screens can do for you). Markets seem to have taken to the new year equally excitedly and what I had initially expected to be a rather quiet start to the year seems to be far more rambunctious. Traders are currently trying to reconcile an increase in risk appetite with a still strong greenback. The DXY is now looking to test the 77.40 area as part of the consolidation from the clean out late in the last year. I remain wary of shorting the big dollar but equally so warn punters not to get too excited about entering fresh longs just yet. In my view we need to see a little more consolidation and with NFP out on Friday we’re likely to see some volatile positioning ahead of the data.
Worth noting is the recent movement in the USDJPY and the bulk of the rationale behind it has been the spread widening between the 10y UST and the Japanese equivalent which at the close of last year was trading at historically wide levels of 2.55 but has since come in to be trading at 2.46 at print. This is systemically the result of the US 10yrs being well bid this week and as such we’ve seen the USDJPY drop from resistance at 93.10 to be now trading 91.90. Keep an eye on this picture as I firmly believe the USDJPY has further downside to come over the next few weeks. 91.80 marks intermediate support with 91.50 congestion proving to be probably a little too much wood to chop on its first attempt lower.
Further afield we take a look at the EURUSD which has for the very short term a bid tone, but again please refer to the general USD comments above for my view here. I remain bearish the EURUSD and save for some small bids coming through the market taking us into 1.4530 (definite sell) I look for 1.4385 to be tested and finally broken. Look for stops under this level for those that left prop books unattended over the holiday break.
On the Cable I remain bearish and see this move only as the result of yet against the greenback moving a little. On the day 1.6020/30 proves important while the topside is likely to be limited into 1.6150/60.
And for the first piece of positive sentiment, I am a buyer of the USDCAD again holding the 1.0320/80 zone as good buying opportunities with 1.0365 likely to hold any downside attempts on the day.
Data wise little of any significance today with the only bump in the road being the US pending home sales number and what likely to be an interesting speech from the Fed’s Hoenig regarding the ending of US government bailouts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
5/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Po zverejneni lepsich udajov o priemyselnej produkci v USA (a predtym aj v Cine) sa akciove trhy posunuli vyrazne vyssie. Lespie vysledky znamenaju postupne ozivovanie ekonomik po celom svete.
- Spolocnosti Exxon Mobil Corp. a Chevron Corp. zhodnotili po tom co USD oslabil a ceny ropy vzrastli. Z technologickeho sektora si velmi dobre viedol Intel Corp. (najvacsi svetovy vyrobca cipov) na zaklade spekulacii, ze dopyt po osobnych pocitacoch bude pokracovat v raste.
- Akcie spolocnosti Nestle SA vzrastli ako reakcia na vyuzitie opcie spolocnostou Novartis AG na nakup podielu v spolocnosti Alcon Inc. (najvacsia svetova spolocnost v oblasti starostlivosti o oci) v hodnote 39.9 mld. USD.
- Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), spolocnost ktora spravuje najvacsi dlhpisovy fond na svete znizuje svoje investicie do US a GB vladnych dlhopisov ako nasledok rastu zadlzenia tychto krajin a taktiez aj pozorne sleduje vyvoj v oblasti korporatnych dlhopisov.
- Akcie by mali zazit dalsi pozitivny den. Odporucame sledovat mieru nezamestnanosti v GE, podnikove obejdnavky a cakajuce predaje domov v USA.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni smerom ku 6030 s cielom na 6086. Stop pod 6005.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni smerom ku 5485 s cielom na 5530. Stop pod 5460.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1129 s cielom na 1139. Stop pod 1125.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertins Infraest., Accor, Adidas, Aegon, Ahold, Axa, Banco De Sabadel. Banco Popolare, Banco Popular Es., BMW.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): SES, Snam Rete Gas.
ZLATO-
Zlato zaznamenalo narast pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania ako reakcia na oslabujuci sa USD po vyhlaseni jedneho z guvernerov FED-u, ze urokove sadzby by mohli zostat na nizkych urovniach pocas dlhsieho obdobia, kedze ekonomika bude rast miernym tempom.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1122 s cielom na 1132 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1119.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po prelomeni urovne 17.80 s cielom na 18.00 USD/uncu. Stop pod 17.67.
ROPA-
Ropa sa posunula na vyssie urovne vdaka studenemu pocasiu v Severnej Amerike a pokracujucemu ekonomickemu oziveniu vo svete.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mienre pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 80.80 s cielom na 82.20 USD/barel. Stop pod 80.00.
EUR/USD -
Zvysujuci sa zaujem o riziko posunulo USD na nizsie urovne, co znamena zmenu predvianocneho trendu. Zda sa, ze EURUSD je ovplyvnovane hlavne zaujmom investorov o rizikove aktiva a menej makrodatami z USA. Ak by aj udaje z USA boli pozitivnejsie, stale neznamenaju vyrazny posun k lepsiemu.
- Zaujimave bude sledovat ako sa budu spravat investori, ci skor budu sledovat kroky FED-u ohladne zvysovania urokovych sadzieb alebo prejavia vyraznejsi zaujem o rizikovejsie aktiva.
- Dnesne data by nemali vyrazne ovplyvnit obchodovanie, skor bude dolezite sledovat udaje z US trhu prace v piatok, ktore zvyknu udavat ton vyvoju EURUSD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 1.4420 pre znovuotestovanie 1.4520 cestou ku 1.4600 a vyssie. Stop pod 1.4350.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Po zverejneni lepsich udajov o priemyselnej produkci v USA (a predtym aj v Cine) sa akciove trhy posunuli vyrazne vyssie. Lespie vysledky znamenaju postupne ozivovanie ekonomik po celom svete.
- Spolocnosti Exxon Mobil Corp. a Chevron Corp. zhodnotili po tom co USD oslabil a ceny ropy vzrastli. Z technologickeho sektora si velmi dobre viedol Intel Corp. (najvacsi svetovy vyrobca cipov) na zaklade spekulacii, ze dopyt po osobnych pocitacoch bude pokracovat v raste.
- Akcie spolocnosti Nestle SA vzrastli ako reakcia na vyuzitie opcie spolocnostou Novartis AG na nakup podielu v spolocnosti Alcon Inc. (najvacsia svetova spolocnost v oblasti starostlivosti o oci) v hodnote 39.9 mld. USD.
- Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), spolocnost ktora spravuje najvacsi dlhpisovy fond na svete znizuje svoje investicie do US a GB vladnych dlhopisov ako nasledok rastu zadlzenia tychto krajin a taktiez aj pozorne sleduje vyvoj v oblasti korporatnych dlhopisov.
- Akcie by mali zazit dalsi pozitivny den. Odporucame sledovat mieru nezamestnanosti v GE, podnikove obejdnavky a cakajuce predaje domov v USA.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni smerom ku 6030 s cielom na 6086. Stop pod 6005.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni smerom ku 5485 s cielom na 5530. Stop pod 5460.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1129 s cielom na 1139. Stop pod 1125.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertins Infraest., Accor, Adidas, Aegon, Ahold, Axa, Banco De Sabadel. Banco Popolare, Banco Popular Es., BMW.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): SES, Snam Rete Gas.
ZLATO-
Zlato zaznamenalo narast pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania ako reakcia na oslabujuci sa USD po vyhlaseni jedneho z guvernerov FED-u, ze urokove sadzby by mohli zostat na nizkych urovniach pocas dlhsieho obdobia, kedze ekonomika bude rast miernym tempom.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1122 s cielom na 1132 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1119.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po prelomeni urovne 17.80 s cielom na 18.00 USD/uncu. Stop pod 17.67.
ROPA-
Ropa sa posunula na vyssie urovne vdaka studenemu pocasiu v Severnej Amerike a pokracujucemu ekonomickemu oziveniu vo svete.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mienre pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 80.80 s cielom na 82.20 USD/barel. Stop pod 80.00.
EUR/USD -
Zvysujuci sa zaujem o riziko posunulo USD na nizsie urovne, co znamena zmenu predvianocneho trendu. Zda sa, ze EURUSD je ovplyvnovane hlavne zaujmom investorov o rizikove aktiva a menej makrodatami z USA. Ak by aj udaje z USA boli pozitivnejsie, stale neznamenaju vyrazny posun k lepsiemu.
- Zaujimave bude sledovat ako sa budu spravat investori, ci skor budu sledovat kroky FED-u ohladne zvysovania urokovych sadzieb alebo prejavia vyraznejsi zaujem o rizikovejsie aktiva.
- Dnesne data by nemali vyrazne ovplyvnit obchodovanie, skor bude dolezite sledovat udaje z US trhu prace v piatok, ktore zvyknu udavat ton vyvoju EURUSD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 1.4420 pre znovuotestovanie 1.4520 cestou ku 1.4600 a vyssie. Stop pod 1.4350.
22 prosince 2009
22/12 Trader's Diary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
As the days unfold and bring us ever closer to Christmas, fewer and fewer things seem to be happening across the market unsurprisingly. The upside of this of course is that you all have to endure less reading and rambling from yours truly.
So in short, little if anything to report and for those that read yesterday’s comment all the same rules apply.
I will be sending one more comment tomorrow and that should do it until January 5th when hopefully the market starts to pick up a little bit more.
In the meantime;
USDJPY: Stay away.
GBPUSD: Sell rallies.
AUDUSD: Sell rallies.
EURUSD: Capped at 1.4370, sell rallies.
As the days unfold and bring us ever closer to Christmas, fewer and fewer things seem to be happening across the market unsurprisingly. The upside of this of course is that you all have to endure less reading and rambling from yours truly.
So in short, little if anything to report and for those that read yesterday’s comment all the same rules apply.
I will be sending one more comment tomorrow and that should do it until January 5th when hopefully the market starts to pick up a little bit more.
In the meantime;
USDJPY: Stay away.
GBPUSD: Sell rallies.
AUDUSD: Sell rallies.
EURUSD: Capped at 1.4370, sell rallies.
21 prosince 2009
21/12 Trader's Diary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Fairly quiet overnight as almost everyone expected the only exception to the rule was the EURCHF which had an ugly move lower trading into 1.4815 but then quickly rebounding into 1.4925 at the time of print.
Hard to know what (if anything) is going through the minds of the SNB but needless to say the market is now anxiously awaiting their involvement. I am not even prepared to offer an opinion here other than to say that this move in my view was long overdue and I’m happy to see it happen.
Moving swiftly on looking at the broader market and I have nothing for you, it’s the week leading into Christmas and to all I suggest getting the last bit of your shopping in and staying warm with loved ones. The last thing any of you should be doing is looking at this market with a view to getting involved.
However, for those of you that can’t help yourselves, here’s a brief synopsis;
EURUSD: Lower, look for 1.4280 to break and 1.4250 to be touched within the next few days.
GBPUSD: Keep selling it, 1.6350 marks the overall peak for now.
USDJPY: Play the range, 90.80 down to 88.80
AUDUSD: Sell rallies.
There will be more comments this week, but as you can plainly tell they’re not going to be as inflammatory or as exciting as my previous attempts.
Fairly quiet overnight as almost everyone expected the only exception to the rule was the EURCHF which had an ugly move lower trading into 1.4815 but then quickly rebounding into 1.4925 at the time of print.
Hard to know what (if anything) is going through the minds of the SNB but needless to say the market is now anxiously awaiting their involvement. I am not even prepared to offer an opinion here other than to say that this move in my view was long overdue and I’m happy to see it happen.
Moving swiftly on looking at the broader market and I have nothing for you, it’s the week leading into Christmas and to all I suggest getting the last bit of your shopping in and staying warm with loved ones. The last thing any of you should be doing is looking at this market with a view to getting involved.
However, for those of you that can’t help yourselves, here’s a brief synopsis;
EURUSD: Lower, look for 1.4280 to break and 1.4250 to be touched within the next few days.
GBPUSD: Keep selling it, 1.6350 marks the overall peak for now.
USDJPY: Play the range, 90.80 down to 88.80
AUDUSD: Sell rallies.
There will be more comments this week, but as you can plainly tell they’re not going to be as inflammatory or as exciting as my previous attempts.
21/12 Ekonomický komentár "Kúp, predaj, podrž"
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy zaznamenali vyrazny prepad pocas minulotyzdnoveho obchodovania. Hlavnymi pricinami boli predaj akci Citigroup Inc. s diskontom a predpokladany pokles ziskovosti spolocnosti Best Buy Co. a Fedex Corp. Na druhej strane vyssie ako ocakavane prijmy spolocnosti Oracle Corp. and lepsia predpoved pre Research In Motion Ltd. pomohli tlmit tento prepad.
- Niektore banky zacali predcasne splacat vladnu pomoc, ktoru dostali v ramci programu TARP. Robia to prostrednictvom predaja novych akcii, co nema velku podporu u existujucich akcionarov a zapricinuje vyrazny pokles cien bankovych titulov.
- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA okrem Chicago Fed National Activity Index o 14:30 SEC. Akekolvek udaje mensie ako nula znamenaju, ze US ekonomika rastie pomalsie ako je historicky trend.
- Celkovo vidime predaj a realizovanie ziskov z obchodovania s akciami ku koncu ropa.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5825 s cielom pri 5804. Stop nad 5835.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny.Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5190 s cielom na 5163. Stop nad 5205.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 1094 s cielom na 1087. Stop nad 1097.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): ASML Holding, Deutsche Boerse, Merck KGaA, Reed Elsevier, Ryanair, Sanofi-Aventis.
- Dnesne odporucane na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Allianz, Anheuser-Busch I., Axa, Banca Monte Dei., BMW, BNP Paribas, Capgemini, Carrefour, Crédit Agricole.
ROPA -
Rope sa zacina darit, kedze investori ocakavaju v buducom roku ekonomicke ozivenie, vyssi dopyt zo strany rozvijajucich sa ekonomik ako aj vyssi dopyt z USA.
- Ako zaujimavy tip by sme videli predaj februaroveho kontraktu na ropu WTI a nakup februaroveho kontraktu na ropu Brent. WTI ropa je mierne drahsie v porovnani s ropou Brent, kedze jedna z kanadskych rafinerii vdaka poziaru musela zastavit dodavky ropy do USA. To posunulo ceny ropy WTI vysse urovne oproti rope Brent, z coho sa crta kratkodoba moznost pre arbitraz.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Geopoliticka rizika pomahaju rastu cien ropy. Dnesne obchodovanie by malo by v pasme 74.10-75.30 USD/barel.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Horna hranica cien je limitovana na urovni 1119. Odporucame predaje s cielom testovat uroven 1100 s cielom na 1000 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1123.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.45 s cielom znovu otestovat uroven 17.20 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.55.
EUR/USD -
Silny trend posilnovania USD sa zda, ze pomalicky straca na sile, aspon nateraz. USD je pozitivne ovplyvneny niektorymi lepsimi datami z USA, co vyvolava spekulacie, ze FED by mohol zacat aktivnejsie presadzovat svoju menovu politiku (stahovanie penazi z obehu a urokove sadzby). Otazne je, ci FED bude naozaj taky razantny a zacne zvysovat urokove sadzby, co by znamenalo vyssie naklady na splacanie US dlhu (co si zadlzene USA nie velmi mozu dovolit), alebo bude riskovat vyssiu inflaciu.
- Tohto tyzdnove ekonomicke ukazovatele z USA by mali byt podporit USD.
- Na EURUSD mame neutralny vyhlad. Vidime konsolidaciu v pasme 1.4285-1.4380 EURUSD. Riziko prelomenia urovne 1.4450 predtym ako sa posunie nizsie.
EUR/CZK-
Vyhlad na CZK: EURCZK: 26.00-27.00 a USDCZK: 18.00-19.25.
- Pri obchodovani s CZK bude prevladat velmi nizka likvidita. CZK bude preto ovplyvnena vyvojom EURUSD a dianim na akciovych trhoch.
- Rezistencia je na 26.65 a podporna uroven na 26.06-26.12 EURCZK.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy zaznamenali vyrazny prepad pocas minulotyzdnoveho obchodovania. Hlavnymi pricinami boli predaj akci Citigroup Inc. s diskontom a predpokladany pokles ziskovosti spolocnosti Best Buy Co. a Fedex Corp. Na druhej strane vyssie ako ocakavane prijmy spolocnosti Oracle Corp. and lepsia predpoved pre Research In Motion Ltd. pomohli tlmit tento prepad.
- Niektore banky zacali predcasne splacat vladnu pomoc, ktoru dostali v ramci programu TARP. Robia to prostrednictvom predaja novych akcii, co nema velku podporu u existujucich akcionarov a zapricinuje vyrazny pokles cien bankovych titulov.
- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA okrem Chicago Fed National Activity Index o 14:30 SEC. Akekolvek udaje mensie ako nula znamenaju, ze US ekonomika rastie pomalsie ako je historicky trend.
- Celkovo vidime predaj a realizovanie ziskov z obchodovania s akciami ku koncu ropa.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5825 s cielom pri 5804. Stop nad 5835.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny.Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5190 s cielom na 5163. Stop nad 5205.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 1094 s cielom na 1087. Stop nad 1097.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): ASML Holding, Deutsche Boerse, Merck KGaA, Reed Elsevier, Ryanair, Sanofi-Aventis.
- Dnesne odporucane na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Allianz, Anheuser-Busch I., Axa, Banca Monte Dei., BMW, BNP Paribas, Capgemini, Carrefour, Crédit Agricole.
ROPA -
Rope sa zacina darit, kedze investori ocakavaju v buducom roku ekonomicke ozivenie, vyssi dopyt zo strany rozvijajucich sa ekonomik ako aj vyssi dopyt z USA.
- Ako zaujimavy tip by sme videli predaj februaroveho kontraktu na ropu WTI a nakup februaroveho kontraktu na ropu Brent. WTI ropa je mierne drahsie v porovnani s ropou Brent, kedze jedna z kanadskych rafinerii vdaka poziaru musela zastavit dodavky ropy do USA. To posunulo ceny ropy WTI vysse urovne oproti rope Brent, z coho sa crta kratkodoba moznost pre arbitraz.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Geopoliticka rizika pomahaju rastu cien ropy. Dnesne obchodovanie by malo by v pasme 74.10-75.30 USD/barel.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Horna hranica cien je limitovana na urovni 1119. Odporucame predaje s cielom testovat uroven 1100 s cielom na 1000 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1123.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.45 s cielom znovu otestovat uroven 17.20 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.55.
EUR/USD -
Silny trend posilnovania USD sa zda, ze pomalicky straca na sile, aspon nateraz. USD je pozitivne ovplyvneny niektorymi lepsimi datami z USA, co vyvolava spekulacie, ze FED by mohol zacat aktivnejsie presadzovat svoju menovu politiku (stahovanie penazi z obehu a urokove sadzby). Otazne je, ci FED bude naozaj taky razantny a zacne zvysovat urokove sadzby, co by znamenalo vyssie naklady na splacanie US dlhu (co si zadlzene USA nie velmi mozu dovolit), alebo bude riskovat vyssiu inflaciu.
- Tohto tyzdnove ekonomicke ukazovatele z USA by mali byt podporit USD.
- Na EURUSD mame neutralny vyhlad. Vidime konsolidaciu v pasme 1.4285-1.4380 EURUSD. Riziko prelomenia urovne 1.4450 predtym ako sa posunie nizsie.
EUR/CZK-
Vyhlad na CZK: EURCZK: 26.00-27.00 a USDCZK: 18.00-19.25.
- Pri obchodovani s CZK bude prevladat velmi nizka likvidita. CZK bude preto ovplyvnena vyvojom EURUSD a dianim na akciovych trhoch.
- Rezistencia je na 26.65 a podporna uroven na 26.06-26.12 EURCZK.
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