Připravil Luboš Spousta, Saxo Bank
Zlato se dnes drží již druhý den v mínusu. Čím si tuto situaci vysvětlujete?
Ano zlato od středy oslabilo z hodnot kolem 1140 dolarů na aktuálních 1125. Hlavní příčinou bylo posílení dolaru až k 1,430 vůči EUR, především po středečních spíše negativních makrodatech.
Jaký můžeme podle vás obecně čekat trend ve vývoji cen ostatních drahých kovů?
Co se týká vývoje drahých kovů jako je stříbro, máme spíše pozitivní náhled. Důvodem by mohly být dopolední makrodata jako HDP eurozony nebo PPI ve VB, kde by mohlo dojít ke zklamání. Například na stříbru bychom se mohli dnes podívat k hranici 18,22 dolarů.
Americká lehká ropa WTI dosáhla v posledních dnech 15ti-měsíčního maxima, kdy na chvíli překonala 83 dolarů za barel. Můžeme teď očekávat opět spíše pokles její ceny?
Pokud jde o aktální dnešní výhled, očekáváme spíše její růst, možná až k úrovni 83,40. Samozřejmě z dlouhodobého hlediska nelze vyloučit její korekci zvlášť pokud by došlo k naplnění obav z ekonomického oživení.
08 ledna 2010
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
Well as I’ve said many times before and will continue to say in the 16 or so years that I’ve been trading the one love that I have fostered most in all that time is for the Japanese. I hear all of you currently screaming why of all things the Japanese? Well let me tell you (and this extends not only to their fine sushi, but more importantly to all levels of government) it’s because they are all so blatantly confused that no one in their right minds now takes them seriously and anyone that dares to is likely to wear pain as a result.
Take the developments of the last 36 hours as the perfect example of what I like to refer to as bureaucratic inefficiency. First off we had (as noted yesterday) the newly appointed Japanese finance minister Kan espousing the virtues of a weaker JPY and citing the 95.00 level in the USDJPY as comfortable! Then a mere 24 hours later we had a raft of official comment from the likes of the fin services minister, the national strategy minister and finally the PM himself all saying things like the government should and will not be involved in directly influencing the currency market, the fact that they are closely monitoring the market but not prepared to comment about the state of the current rate of exchange and finally the fact that volatile moves in the rates should be monitored but are likely given the state of the global economy…..
Now folks if you can decipher the above into one united intelligent comment on what they are or aren’t prepared to do about the prevailing FX rate, then I would kindly ask that you do so and reply back to me so that we’re all on the same page. The long and short of it is that as I mentioned in all the years that I have been doing this I have only once seen the BOJ physically intervene and all the rest has been jawboning. At least back in the day it was unilateral, where as now it’s just simply confusing and ultimately ineffective. Net result the USDJPY looks like it is now going to struggle to get through 94.00 in any significant fashion and in all likelihood will in the coming week or so once again retrace and retreat into the 90-92 zone.
Ok enough venting and raging over the Japanese and onto more important matter like today’s NFP. The market is closely anticipating a positive print with the potential for a fall to the official unemployment rate or at the very least no change at all. Interesting. As usual I take the contrarian view and say that after the last print which was ridiculously good (almost out of nowhere I might add) we might be due to see some revisions on this number and this could indeed take the street by surprise.
So what are the likely outcomes? Well if the numbers are better we’ll see a good kick further in the prevailing risk appetite but equally so the USD is likely to catch a bid tone as the market embraces the possibility of an exit strategy even closer at hand than previously thought. However if there is a disappointment then we could very well see a drop in the US long end yields, narrowing the spread between them and Japan and thus putting further downward pressure on the USDJPY.
Otherwise overnight we had the Fed issue a statement (very cryptically) about the liquidity and capital requirements of deposit taking institutions in the US which to some signaled the increased likelihood of an exit….
On the majors today;
EURUSD: Still range bound and the risk certainly remains to the downside looking for another test of the 1.4250 level.
USDCAD: I remain bullish but don’t rule out dips into 1.0300/0280 at which point I add to my long positions.
GBPUSD: Sell it! Go on I dare you. Anything above 1.6050/6100 needs to be sold looking for another move into 1.5920/1.5850
AUDUSD: Still running out of steam and I would suggest for those prepared to spend a bit of money buying some downside in the form of 2 week puts.
USDJPY: I remain a seller preferring to scale into positions from 93.30/40 and above into 93.80/00.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Well as I’ve said many times before and will continue to say in the 16 or so years that I’ve been trading the one love that I have fostered most in all that time is for the Japanese. I hear all of you currently screaming why of all things the Japanese? Well let me tell you (and this extends not only to their fine sushi, but more importantly to all levels of government) it’s because they are all so blatantly confused that no one in their right minds now takes them seriously and anyone that dares to is likely to wear pain as a result.
Take the developments of the last 36 hours as the perfect example of what I like to refer to as bureaucratic inefficiency. First off we had (as noted yesterday) the newly appointed Japanese finance minister Kan espousing the virtues of a weaker JPY and citing the 95.00 level in the USDJPY as comfortable! Then a mere 24 hours later we had a raft of official comment from the likes of the fin services minister, the national strategy minister and finally the PM himself all saying things like the government should and will not be involved in directly influencing the currency market, the fact that they are closely monitoring the market but not prepared to comment about the state of the current rate of exchange and finally the fact that volatile moves in the rates should be monitored but are likely given the state of the global economy…..
Now folks if you can decipher the above into one united intelligent comment on what they are or aren’t prepared to do about the prevailing FX rate, then I would kindly ask that you do so and reply back to me so that we’re all on the same page. The long and short of it is that as I mentioned in all the years that I have been doing this I have only once seen the BOJ physically intervene and all the rest has been jawboning. At least back in the day it was unilateral, where as now it’s just simply confusing and ultimately ineffective. Net result the USDJPY looks like it is now going to struggle to get through 94.00 in any significant fashion and in all likelihood will in the coming week or so once again retrace and retreat into the 90-92 zone.
Ok enough venting and raging over the Japanese and onto more important matter like today’s NFP. The market is closely anticipating a positive print with the potential for a fall to the official unemployment rate or at the very least no change at all. Interesting. As usual I take the contrarian view and say that after the last print which was ridiculously good (almost out of nowhere I might add) we might be due to see some revisions on this number and this could indeed take the street by surprise.
So what are the likely outcomes? Well if the numbers are better we’ll see a good kick further in the prevailing risk appetite but equally so the USD is likely to catch a bid tone as the market embraces the possibility of an exit strategy even closer at hand than previously thought. However if there is a disappointment then we could very well see a drop in the US long end yields, narrowing the spread between them and Japan and thus putting further downward pressure on the USDJPY.
Otherwise overnight we had the Fed issue a statement (very cryptically) about the liquidity and capital requirements of deposit taking institutions in the US which to some signaled the increased likelihood of an exit….
On the majors today;
EURUSD: Still range bound and the risk certainly remains to the downside looking for another test of the 1.4250 level.
USDCAD: I remain bullish but don’t rule out dips into 1.0300/0280 at which point I add to my long positions.
GBPUSD: Sell it! Go on I dare you. Anything above 1.6050/6100 needs to be sold looking for another move into 1.5920/1.5850
AUDUSD: Still running out of steam and I would suggest for those prepared to spend a bit of money buying some downside in the form of 2 week puts.
USDJPY: I remain a seller preferring to scale into positions from 93.30/40 and above into 93.80/00.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
07 ledna 2010
7/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v cervenych cislach. Hlavnymi faktormi poklesu cien boli predaj akcii Citigroup Inc., horsie hospodarske vysledky spolocnosti FedEx Corp. a neocakavany narast ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti v USA.
- Citigroup predava nove akcie aby ziskala dostatocne prostriedky na splatenie financnej pomoci od vlady. Vcerajsi predaj prebehol za vyrazne nizku cenu. Kedze predaj bol realizovany za nizsiu cenu ako US vlada zaplatila za akcie (pocas preberania kontroly a poskytovania pomoci), planovany predaj podielu vlady v Citigroup bol odlozeny o 90 dni.
- Akcie spolocnosti FedEx poklesli, ked horsie vysledky boli v ramci ocakavani analytikov. Spolocnost Fedex je „indikatorom“ ekonomickej aktivity po celom svete, kedze prepravuje vsetko od drobnych zasielok az po stroje. Horsie vysledky svedcia a mensej ekonomickej aktivite vo svete.
- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA, ale doporucujeme sledovat udaje o IFO (Index podnikatelskej aktivity) z GE o 10:00 SEC.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Deutsche Boerse, Fiat, Fortum, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Saipem, Vallourec.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ASML Holding, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, ENI.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj okolo urovne 5834 s cielom pri 5775. Stop nad 5860.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame pedaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 5220 s cielom na 5176. Stop nad 5238.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1102 s cielom na 1093. Stop nad 1106.
ROPA
- V poslednych dnoch ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD, ktory vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Na druhej strane vcerajsi narast bol zapricineny lepsimi vyhliadkami US ekonomiky a vacsim poklesom oficialnych zasob ropy.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 73.00 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.70.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1116 s cielom na 1098 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1122.
ZLATO – vyhlad 2010-2014-
Ako hlavny faktor poklesu cien zlata vidime vyrazne posilnenie USD. Kedze zlato, podobne ako aj ostatne komodity sa ocenuje v USD, tak sa rast USD automaticky premietol do poklesu cien.
- Je to dane takisto aj dalsimi faktormi ako mensi zaujem investorov o zlato a komodity ako ochrany pred inflaciou.
- Rast cien zlata do roku 2014 na uroven 1500 USD/uncu moze byt realny, ak by USA zaznamenali vyssiu inflaciu, ktora by viedla k znehodnoteniu USD a vyraznemu rastu cien. Toto nemusi byt az take nepravdepodobne vzhladom na obrovsky objem USD, ktory bol „napumpovany“ do ekonomiky v podobe zachrannych balickov.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.50 s cielom na 17.10 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.70.
EUR/USD -
EURUSD je stale ovplyvnene posilnovanim USD. EUR nepomaha situacia spojena s rozpoctovymi problemami Grecka.
- Zaujimavy vyvoj je medzi EURCHF. V Eurozone je velky prebytok likvidity po nedavnom 12-mesacnom tendri ECB co tlaci urokove sadzby na nizsie urovne. Nasledne investori predavaju EUR a nakupuju CHF, co vyvolava tlak na zhodnotenie CHF. SNB zatial nezasiahla, ale je zaujimave sledovat tento vyvoj. Z kratkodobeho hladiska long EURCHF moze byt zaujimavy obchod, dlhodobo sme vsak naladeny na short EURCHF.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Mozeme vidiet posun na 1.4410, s moznostou dalsej korekcie ku 1.4480 pred dalsim prepadom nizsie. Cielovu uroven vidime na 1.4300 EURUSD.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v cervenych cislach. Hlavnymi faktormi poklesu cien boli predaj akcii Citigroup Inc., horsie hospodarske vysledky spolocnosti FedEx Corp. a neocakavany narast ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti v USA.
- Citigroup predava nove akcie aby ziskala dostatocne prostriedky na splatenie financnej pomoci od vlady. Vcerajsi predaj prebehol za vyrazne nizku cenu. Kedze predaj bol realizovany za nizsiu cenu ako US vlada zaplatila za akcie (pocas preberania kontroly a poskytovania pomoci), planovany predaj podielu vlady v Citigroup bol odlozeny o 90 dni.
- Akcie spolocnosti FedEx poklesli, ked horsie vysledky boli v ramci ocakavani analytikov. Spolocnost Fedex je „indikatorom“ ekonomickej aktivity po celom svete, kedze prepravuje vsetko od drobnych zasielok az po stroje. Horsie vysledky svedcia a mensej ekonomickej aktivite vo svete.
- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA, ale doporucujeme sledovat udaje o IFO (Index podnikatelskej aktivity) z GE o 10:00 SEC.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Deutsche Boerse, Fiat, Fortum, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Saipem, Vallourec.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ASML Holding, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, ENI.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj okolo urovne 5834 s cielom pri 5775. Stop nad 5860.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame pedaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 5220 s cielom na 5176. Stop nad 5238.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1102 s cielom na 1093. Stop nad 1106.
ROPA
- V poslednych dnoch ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD, ktory vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Na druhej strane vcerajsi narast bol zapricineny lepsimi vyhliadkami US ekonomiky a vacsim poklesom oficialnych zasob ropy.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 73.00 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.70.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1116 s cielom na 1098 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1122.
ZLATO – vyhlad 2010-2014-
Ako hlavny faktor poklesu cien zlata vidime vyrazne posilnenie USD. Kedze zlato, podobne ako aj ostatne komodity sa ocenuje v USD, tak sa rast USD automaticky premietol do poklesu cien.
- Je to dane takisto aj dalsimi faktormi ako mensi zaujem investorov o zlato a komodity ako ochrany pred inflaciou.
- Rast cien zlata do roku 2014 na uroven 1500 USD/uncu moze byt realny, ak by USA zaznamenali vyssiu inflaciu, ktora by viedla k znehodnoteniu USD a vyraznemu rastu cien. Toto nemusi byt az take nepravdepodobne vzhladom na obrovsky objem USD, ktory bol „napumpovany“ do ekonomiky v podobe zachrannych balickov.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.50 s cielom na 17.10 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.70.
EUR/USD -
EURUSD je stale ovplyvnene posilnovanim USD. EUR nepomaha situacia spojena s rozpoctovymi problemami Grecka.
- Zaujimavy vyvoj je medzi EURCHF. V Eurozone je velky prebytok likvidity po nedavnom 12-mesacnom tendri ECB co tlaci urokove sadzby na nizsie urovne. Nasledne investori predavaju EUR a nakupuju CHF, co vyvolava tlak na zhodnotenie CHF. SNB zatial nezasiahla, ale je zaujimave sledovat tento vyvoj. Z kratkodobeho hladiska long EURCHF moze byt zaujimavy obchod, dlhodobo sme vsak naladeny na short EURCHF.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Mozeme vidiet posun na 1.4410, s moznostou dalsej korekcie ku 1.4480 pred dalsim prepadom nizsie. Cielovu uroven vidime na 1.4300 EURUSD.
7/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v cervenych cislach. Hlavnymi faktormi poklesu cien boli predaj akcii Citigroup Inc., horsie hospodarske vysledky spolocnosti FedEx Corp. a neocakavany narast ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti v USA.
- Citigroup predava nove akcie aby ziskala dostatocne prostriedky na splatenie financnej pomoci od vlady. Vcerajsi predaj prebehol za vyrazne nizku cenu. Kedze predaj bol realizovany za nizsiu cenu ako US vlada zaplatila za akcie (pocas preberania kontroly a poskytovania pomoci), planovany predaj podielu vlady v Citigroup bol odlozeny o 90 dni.
- Akcie spolocnosti FedEx poklesli, ked horsie vysledky boli v ramci ocakavani analytikov. Spolocnost Fedex je „indikatorom“ ekonomickej aktivity po celom svete, kedze prepravuje vsetko od drobnych zasielok az po stroje. Horsie vysledky svedcia a mensej ekonomickej aktivite vo svete.
- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA, ale doporucujeme sledovat udaje o IFO (Index podnikatelskej aktivity) z GE o 10:00 SEC.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Deutsche Boerse, Fiat, Fortum, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Saipem, Vallourec.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ASML Holding, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, ENI.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj okolo urovne 5834 s cielom pri 5775. Stop nad 5860.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame pedaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 5220 s cielom na 5176. Stop nad 5238.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1102 s cielom na 1093. Stop nad 1106.
ROPA
- V poslednych dnoch ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD, ktory vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Na druhej strane vcerajsi narast bol zapricineny lepsimi vyhliadkami US ekonomiky a vacsim poklesom oficialnych zasob ropy.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 73.00 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.70.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1116 s cielom na 1098 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1122.
ZLATO – vyhlad 2010-2014-
Ako hlavny faktor poklesu cien zlata vidime vyrazne posilnenie USD. Kedze zlato, podobne ako aj ostatne komodity sa ocenuje v USD, tak sa rast USD automaticky premietol do poklesu cien.
- Je to dane takisto aj dalsimi faktormi ako mensi zaujem investorov o zlato a komodity ako ochrany pred inflaciou.
- Rast cien zlata do roku 2014 na uroven 1500 USD/uncu moze byt realny, ak by USA zaznamenali vyssiu inflaciu, ktora by viedla k znehodnoteniu USD a vyraznemu rastu cien. Toto nemusi byt az take nepravdepodobne vzhladom na obrovsky objem USD, ktory bol „napumpovany“ do ekonomiky v podobe zachrannych balickov.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.50 s cielom na 17.10 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.70.
EUR/USD -
EURUSD je stale ovplyvnene posilnovanim USD. EUR nepomaha situacia spojena s rozpoctovymi problemami Grecka.
- Zaujimavy vyvoj je medzi EURCHF. V Eurozone je velky prebytok likvidity po nedavnom 12-mesacnom tendri ECB co tlaci urokove sadzby na nizsie urovne. Nasledne investori predavaju EUR a nakupuju CHF, co vyvolava tlak na zhodnotenie CHF. SNB zatial nezasiahla, ale je zaujimave sledovat tento vyvoj. Z kratkodobeho hladiska long EURCHF moze byt zaujimavy obchod, dlhodobo sme vsak naladeny na short EURCHF.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Mozeme vidiet posun na 1.4410, s moznostou dalsej korekcie ku 1.4480 pred dalsim prepadom nizsie. Cielovu uroven vidime na 1.4300 EURUSD.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v cervenych cislach. Hlavnymi faktormi poklesu cien boli predaj akcii Citigroup Inc., horsie hospodarske vysledky spolocnosti FedEx Corp. a neocakavany narast ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti v USA.
- Citigroup predava nove akcie aby ziskala dostatocne prostriedky na splatenie financnej pomoci od vlady. Vcerajsi predaj prebehol za vyrazne nizku cenu. Kedze predaj bol realizovany za nizsiu cenu ako US vlada zaplatila za akcie (pocas preberania kontroly a poskytovania pomoci), planovany predaj podielu vlady v Citigroup bol odlozeny o 90 dni.
- Akcie spolocnosti FedEx poklesli, ked horsie vysledky boli v ramci ocakavani analytikov. Spolocnost Fedex je „indikatorom“ ekonomickej aktivity po celom svete, kedze prepravuje vsetko od drobnych zasielok az po stroje. Horsie vysledky svedcia a mensej ekonomickej aktivite vo svete.
- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA, ale doporucujeme sledovat udaje o IFO (Index podnikatelskej aktivity) z GE o 10:00 SEC.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Deutsche Boerse, Fiat, Fortum, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Saipem, Vallourec.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ASML Holding, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, ENI.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj okolo urovne 5834 s cielom pri 5775. Stop nad 5860.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame pedaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 5220 s cielom na 5176. Stop nad 5238.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1102 s cielom na 1093. Stop nad 1106.
ROPA
- V poslednych dnoch ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD, ktory vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Na druhej strane vcerajsi narast bol zapricineny lepsimi vyhliadkami US ekonomiky a vacsim poklesom oficialnych zasob ropy.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 73.00 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.70.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1116 s cielom na 1098 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1122.
ZLATO – vyhlad 2010-2014-
Ako hlavny faktor poklesu cien zlata vidime vyrazne posilnenie USD. Kedze zlato, podobne ako aj ostatne komodity sa ocenuje v USD, tak sa rast USD automaticky premietol do poklesu cien.
- Je to dane takisto aj dalsimi faktormi ako mensi zaujem investorov o zlato a komodity ako ochrany pred inflaciou.
- Rast cien zlata do roku 2014 na uroven 1500 USD/uncu moze byt realny, ak by USA zaznamenali vyssiu inflaciu, ktora by viedla k znehodnoteniu USD a vyraznemu rastu cien. Toto nemusi byt az take nepravdepodobne vzhladom na obrovsky objem USD, ktory bol „napumpovany“ do ekonomiky v podobe zachrannych balickov.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.50 s cielom na 17.10 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.70.
EUR/USD -
EURUSD je stale ovplyvnene posilnovanim USD. EUR nepomaha situacia spojena s rozpoctovymi problemami Grecka.
- Zaujimavy vyvoj je medzi EURCHF. V Eurozone je velky prebytok likvidity po nedavnom 12-mesacnom tendri ECB co tlaci urokove sadzby na nizsie urovne. Nasledne investori predavaju EUR a nakupuju CHF, co vyvolava tlak na zhodnotenie CHF. SNB zatial nezasiahla, ale je zaujimave sledovat tento vyvoj. Z kratkodobeho hladiska long EURCHF moze byt zaujimavy obchod, dlhodobo sme vsak naladeny na short EURCHF.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Mozeme vidiet posun na 1.4410, s moznostou dalsej korekcie ku 1.4480 pred dalsim prepadom nizsie. Cielovu uroven vidime na 1.4300 EURUSD.
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
Interesting night for the antipodeans in particular with the Australian economy continuing to show resilience in the face of global adversity with the proof in the pudding as they say with retail numbers released at 1.4% beating a consensus of 0.3%. Clearly this gave the little battler a significant boost and trading sprung from around 0.9180 pre release to a high of 0.9268. In my view a slightly exaggerated move but easily explained away by the triggering of mass stops sitting between 0.9235 and 0.9250. Since then things have calmed down a little and the pair is now trading around initial breakout levels of 0.9200. The NZD followed its richer cousin overnight understandably trading to a session high of 0.7430 its regularly visited resistance level, but in unison with the AUD this pair is now trading lower around the 0.7370 mark.
Otherwise we had the FOMC minutes released last night and little if anything can truly be garnered from the declaration. Ultimately I see no immediate change to rhetoric or policy stance and thus the greenback is left to its own devices for the interim. The only piece of interest (clutching at straws here) was the discrepancy in when and how to reign in the current MBS buyback program (told you I was clutching at straws).
This morning we had the newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Kan on the wires (press conference) telling the world that he would be comfortable in seeing the local currency trading around the 95 level in relation to the big dollar and that a weaker Yen was all in all a good thing for (not in so many words) an ailing economy. The reaction thus far has been muted and the cross still grunts its way to the 93.10/30 resistance levels currently trading 92.85. I remain a sell of the USDJPY but offer the advice to be wary of stops lining the above mentioned levels. As per yesterday’s comments I don’t necessarily feel great about a weaker Yen and truthfully don’t think the market is entirely convinced of the fact either.
On the day I look for the market to be a little muted in anticipation of tomorrow’s NFP and with yesterday ADP data showing a poorer result, I feel that in contrast to the bulk of the market we are likely to see worse than expected data tomorrow which could ultimately also give the greenback another boost if this recent bout of risk appetite all of a sudden loses some of its bite. Otherwise data today will center on the BOE decision (no change on either QE or OCR), Euro consumer confidence which is likely to see the EURUSD move into 1.4430 resistance before being sold off again and of course the initial and continuing claims data out of the US.
On the majors:
EURUSD: Read above but in summary grinds higher to resistance at 1.4430, only to then be sold off in smalls.
GBPUSD: 1.5830 is a definite target today, but don’t be surprised by a small squeeze higher ahead of the BOE announcement into 1.6050.
USDJPY: Steady as she goes and that path is currently towards 93.10/30.
USDCAD: Still a buy on dips, but my gut says that we are likely to see a downside cleanout today (Ivey PMI could be the trigger) with first target 1.0280.
AUDUSD: Fade the move and start scaling into conservative shorts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Interesting night for the antipodeans in particular with the Australian economy continuing to show resilience in the face of global adversity with the proof in the pudding as they say with retail numbers released at 1.4% beating a consensus of 0.3%. Clearly this gave the little battler a significant boost and trading sprung from around 0.9180 pre release to a high of 0.9268. In my view a slightly exaggerated move but easily explained away by the triggering of mass stops sitting between 0.9235 and 0.9250. Since then things have calmed down a little and the pair is now trading around initial breakout levels of 0.9200. The NZD followed its richer cousin overnight understandably trading to a session high of 0.7430 its regularly visited resistance level, but in unison with the AUD this pair is now trading lower around the 0.7370 mark.
Otherwise we had the FOMC minutes released last night and little if anything can truly be garnered from the declaration. Ultimately I see no immediate change to rhetoric or policy stance and thus the greenback is left to its own devices for the interim. The only piece of interest (clutching at straws here) was the discrepancy in when and how to reign in the current MBS buyback program (told you I was clutching at straws).
This morning we had the newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Kan on the wires (press conference) telling the world that he would be comfortable in seeing the local currency trading around the 95 level in relation to the big dollar and that a weaker Yen was all in all a good thing for (not in so many words) an ailing economy. The reaction thus far has been muted and the cross still grunts its way to the 93.10/30 resistance levels currently trading 92.85. I remain a sell of the USDJPY but offer the advice to be wary of stops lining the above mentioned levels. As per yesterday’s comments I don’t necessarily feel great about a weaker Yen and truthfully don’t think the market is entirely convinced of the fact either.
On the day I look for the market to be a little muted in anticipation of tomorrow’s NFP and with yesterday ADP data showing a poorer result, I feel that in contrast to the bulk of the market we are likely to see worse than expected data tomorrow which could ultimately also give the greenback another boost if this recent bout of risk appetite all of a sudden loses some of its bite. Otherwise data today will center on the BOE decision (no change on either QE or OCR), Euro consumer confidence which is likely to see the EURUSD move into 1.4430 resistance before being sold off again and of course the initial and continuing claims data out of the US.
On the majors:
EURUSD: Read above but in summary grinds higher to resistance at 1.4430, only to then be sold off in smalls.
GBPUSD: 1.5830 is a definite target today, but don’t be surprised by a small squeeze higher ahead of the BOE announcement into 1.6050.
USDJPY: Steady as she goes and that path is currently towards 93.10/30.
USDCAD: Still a buy on dips, but my gut says that we are likely to see a downside cleanout today (Ivey PMI could be the trigger) with first target 1.0280.
AUDUSD: Fade the move and start scaling into conservative shorts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
Interesting night for the antipodeans in particular with the Australian economy continuing to show resilience in the face of global adversity with the proof in the pudding as they say with retail numbers released at 1.4% beating a consensus of 0.3%. Clearly this gave the little battler a significant boost and trading sprung from around 0.9180 pre release to a high of 0.9268. In my view a slightly exaggerated move but easily explained away by the triggering of mass stops sitting between 0.9235 and 0.9250. Since then things have calmed down a little and the pair is now trading around initial breakout levels of 0.9200. The NZD followed its richer cousin overnight understandably trading to a session high of 0.7430 its regularly visited resistance level, but in unison with the AUD this pair is now trading lower around the 0.7370 mark.
Otherwise we had the FOMC minutes released last night and little if anything can truly be garnered from the declaration. Ultimately I see no immediate change to rhetoric or policy stance and thus the greenback is left to its own devices for the interim. The only piece of interest (clutching at straws here) was the discrepancy in when and how to reign in the current MBS buyback program (told you I was clutching at straws).
This morning we had the newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Kan on the wires (press conference) telling the world that he would be comfortable in seeing the local currency trading around the 95 level in relation to the big dollar and that a weaker Yen was all in all a good thing for (not in so many words) an ailing economy. The reaction thus far has been muted and the cross still grunts its way to the 93.10/30 resistance levels currently trading 92.85. I remain a sell of the USDJPY but offer the advice to be wary of stops lining the above mentioned levels. As per yesterday’s comments I don’t necessarily feel great about a weaker Yen and truthfully don’t think the market is entirely convinced of the fact either.
On the day I look for the market to be a little muted in anticipation of tomorrow’s NFP and with yesterday ADP data showing a poorer result, I feel that in contrast to the bulk of the market we are likely to see worse than expected data tomorrow which could ultimately also give the greenback another boost if this recent bout of risk appetite all of a sudden loses some of its bite. Otherwise data today will center on the BOE decision (no change on either QE or OCR), Euro consumer confidence which is likely to see the EURUSD move into 1.4430 resistance before being sold off again and of course the initial and continuing claims data out of the US.
On the majors:
EURUSD: Read above but in summary grinds higher to resistance at 1.4430, only to then be sold off in smalls.
GBPUSD: 1.5830 is a definite target today, but don’t be surprised by a small squeeze higher ahead of the BOE announcement into 1.6050.
USDJPY: Steady as she goes and that path is currently towards 93.10/30.
USDCAD: Still a buy on dips, but my gut says that we are likely to see a downside cleanout today (Ivey PMI could be the trigger) with first target 1.0280.
AUDUSD: Fade the move and start scaling into conservative shorts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Interesting night for the antipodeans in particular with the Australian economy continuing to show resilience in the face of global adversity with the proof in the pudding as they say with retail numbers released at 1.4% beating a consensus of 0.3%. Clearly this gave the little battler a significant boost and trading sprung from around 0.9180 pre release to a high of 0.9268. In my view a slightly exaggerated move but easily explained away by the triggering of mass stops sitting between 0.9235 and 0.9250. Since then things have calmed down a little and the pair is now trading around initial breakout levels of 0.9200. The NZD followed its richer cousin overnight understandably trading to a session high of 0.7430 its regularly visited resistance level, but in unison with the AUD this pair is now trading lower around the 0.7370 mark.
Otherwise we had the FOMC minutes released last night and little if anything can truly be garnered from the declaration. Ultimately I see no immediate change to rhetoric or policy stance and thus the greenback is left to its own devices for the interim. The only piece of interest (clutching at straws here) was the discrepancy in when and how to reign in the current MBS buyback program (told you I was clutching at straws).
This morning we had the newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Kan on the wires (press conference) telling the world that he would be comfortable in seeing the local currency trading around the 95 level in relation to the big dollar and that a weaker Yen was all in all a good thing for (not in so many words) an ailing economy. The reaction thus far has been muted and the cross still grunts its way to the 93.10/30 resistance levels currently trading 92.85. I remain a sell of the USDJPY but offer the advice to be wary of stops lining the above mentioned levels. As per yesterday’s comments I don’t necessarily feel great about a weaker Yen and truthfully don’t think the market is entirely convinced of the fact either.
On the day I look for the market to be a little muted in anticipation of tomorrow’s NFP and with yesterday ADP data showing a poorer result, I feel that in contrast to the bulk of the market we are likely to see worse than expected data tomorrow which could ultimately also give the greenback another boost if this recent bout of risk appetite all of a sudden loses some of its bite. Otherwise data today will center on the BOE decision (no change on either QE or OCR), Euro consumer confidence which is likely to see the EURUSD move into 1.4430 resistance before being sold off again and of course the initial and continuing claims data out of the US.
On the majors:
EURUSD: Read above but in summary grinds higher to resistance at 1.4430, only to then be sold off in smalls.
GBPUSD: 1.5830 is a definite target today, but don’t be surprised by a small squeeze higher ahead of the BOE announcement into 1.6050.
USDJPY: Steady as she goes and that path is currently towards 93.10/30.
USDCAD: Still a buy on dips, but my gut says that we are likely to see a downside cleanout today (Ivey PMI could be the trigger) with first target 1.0280.
AUDUSD: Fade the move and start scaling into conservative shorts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
Interesting night for the antipodeans in particular with the Australian economy continuing to show resilience in the face of global adversity with the proof in the pudding as they say with retail numbers released at 1.4% beating a consensus of 0.3%. Clearly this gave the little battler a significant boost and trading sprung from around 0.9180 pre release to a high of 0.9268. In my view a slightly exaggerated move but easily explained away by the triggering of mass stops sitting between 0.9235 and 0.9250. Since then things have calmed down a little and the pair is now trading around initial breakout levels of 0.9200. The NZD followed its richer cousin overnight understandably trading to a session high of 0.7430 its regularly visited resistance level, but in unison with the AUD this pair is now trading lower around the 0.7370 mark.
Otherwise we had the FOMC minutes released last night and little if anything can truly be garnered from the declaration. Ultimately I see no immediate change to rhetoric or policy stance and thus the greenback is left to its own devices for the interim. The only piece of interest (clutching at straws here) was the discrepancy in when and how to reign in the current MBS buyback program (told you I was clutching at straws).
This morning we had the newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Kan on the wires (press conference) telling the world that he would be comfortable in seeing the local currency trading around the 95 level in relation to the big dollar and that a weaker Yen was all in all a good thing for (not in so many words) an ailing economy. The reaction thus far has been muted and the cross still grunts its way to the 93.10/30 resistance levels currently trading 92.85. I remain a sell of the USDJPY but offer the advice to be wary of stops lining the above mentioned levels. As per yesterday’s comments I don’t necessarily feel great about a weaker Yen and truthfully don’t think the market is entirely convinced of the fact either.
On the day I look for the market to be a little muted in anticipation of tomorrow’s NFP and with yesterday ADP data showing a poorer result, I feel that in contrast to the bulk of the market we are likely to see worse than expected data tomorrow which could ultimately also give the greenback another boost if this recent bout of risk appetite all of a sudden loses some of its bite. Otherwise data today will center on the BOE decision (no change on either QE or OCR), Euro consumer confidence which is likely to see the EURUSD move into 1.4430 resistance before being sold off again and of course the initial and continuing claims data out of the US.
On the majors:
EURUSD: Read above but in summary grinds higher to resistance at 1.4430, only to then be sold off in smalls.
GBPUSD: 1.5830 is a definite target today, but don’t be surprised by a small squeeze higher ahead of the BOE announcement into 1.6050.
USDJPY: Steady as she goes and that path is currently towards 93.10/30.
USDCAD: Still a buy on dips, but my gut says that we are likely to see a downside cleanout today (Ivey PMI could be the trigger) with first target 1.0280.
AUDUSD: Fade the move and start scaling into conservative shorts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Interesting night for the antipodeans in particular with the Australian economy continuing to show resilience in the face of global adversity with the proof in the pudding as they say with retail numbers released at 1.4% beating a consensus of 0.3%. Clearly this gave the little battler a significant boost and trading sprung from around 0.9180 pre release to a high of 0.9268. In my view a slightly exaggerated move but easily explained away by the triggering of mass stops sitting between 0.9235 and 0.9250. Since then things have calmed down a little and the pair is now trading around initial breakout levels of 0.9200. The NZD followed its richer cousin overnight understandably trading to a session high of 0.7430 its regularly visited resistance level, but in unison with the AUD this pair is now trading lower around the 0.7370 mark.
Otherwise we had the FOMC minutes released last night and little if anything can truly be garnered from the declaration. Ultimately I see no immediate change to rhetoric or policy stance and thus the greenback is left to its own devices for the interim. The only piece of interest (clutching at straws here) was the discrepancy in when and how to reign in the current MBS buyback program (told you I was clutching at straws).
This morning we had the newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Kan on the wires (press conference) telling the world that he would be comfortable in seeing the local currency trading around the 95 level in relation to the big dollar and that a weaker Yen was all in all a good thing for (not in so many words) an ailing economy. The reaction thus far has been muted and the cross still grunts its way to the 93.10/30 resistance levels currently trading 92.85. I remain a sell of the USDJPY but offer the advice to be wary of stops lining the above mentioned levels. As per yesterday’s comments I don’t necessarily feel great about a weaker Yen and truthfully don’t think the market is entirely convinced of the fact either.
On the day I look for the market to be a little muted in anticipation of tomorrow’s NFP and with yesterday ADP data showing a poorer result, I feel that in contrast to the bulk of the market we are likely to see worse than expected data tomorrow which could ultimately also give the greenback another boost if this recent bout of risk appetite all of a sudden loses some of its bite. Otherwise data today will center on the BOE decision (no change on either QE or OCR), Euro consumer confidence which is likely to see the EURUSD move into 1.4430 resistance before being sold off again and of course the initial and continuing claims data out of the US.
On the majors:
EURUSD: Read above but in summary grinds higher to resistance at 1.4430, only to then be sold off in smalls.
GBPUSD: 1.5830 is a definite target today, but don’t be surprised by a small squeeze higher ahead of the BOE announcement into 1.6050.
USDJPY: Steady as she goes and that path is currently towards 93.10/30.
USDCAD: Still a buy on dips, but my gut says that we are likely to see a downside cleanout today (Ivey PMI could be the trigger) with first target 1.0280.
AUDUSD: Fade the move and start scaling into conservative shorts.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Přihlásit se k odběru:
Příspěvky (Atom)