17 dubna 2009
17/4 Vývoj cien ropy
Do konce roku je nejpravděpodobnější obchodovat v pásmu 45-60 USD/barel. Nelze vyloučit pokles až na 32 USD/barel. Růst blízko k 100 USD/barel pokládáme za téměř vyloučený zejména v důsledku nadále nízké poptávky a vysokých zásob.
15 dubna 2009
15/4 Zlato sa drží nad hranicou 890 USD
XAUUSD: Zlato sa stále pomerne dobre drží nad hranicou 890 USD s potenciálom testovať úroveň 900 USD. Zlato bolo podporované aj napriek minulotýždňovému nárastu akciových trhov. Taktiež určité obavy z inflačných tlakov v budúcnosti by mohli podporiť opätovný nárast ceny zlata. Prelomenie 900ky by mohlo viesť k úrovniam 909 až 918. V opačnom smere pod 885 potenciál k 876.
15/4 Zlato sa drží nad hranicou 890 USD
XAUUSD: Zlato sa stále pomerne dobre drží nad hranicou 890 USD s potenciálom testovať úroveň 900 USD. Zlato bolo podporované aj napriek minulotýždňovému nárastu akciových trhov. Taktiež určité obavy z inflačných tlakov v budúcnosti by mohli podporiť opätovný nárast ceny zlata. Prelomenie 900ky by mohlo viesť k úrovniam 909 až 918. V opačnom smere pod 885 potenciál k 876.
15/4 Slabý dopyt tlačí cenu ropy smerom nadol
Futures: Cena ropy sa posledné dni pohybuje okolo hranice 50 USD, a rastúca zásoby tejto suroviny a zároveň stále slabý dopyt tlačia cenu smerom nadol. OPEC je ochotný tolerovať cenu ropy okolo hranice 50USD avšak výraznejší prepad bude pravdepodobne znamenať zníženie produkcie. Prelom hranice 47,05 (50% fibo) by mohol indikovať ďalšie predajné vlny smerom k 45. Pozor však:CLK9 expiruje 21.4.2009
06 dubna 2009
6/4 CEE currencies update
CEE currencies:
We have seen another big sell-off on EUR/CEE3 last week, but it seems like the region was once again victim of illiquidity and speculative players. Because not too many positive numbers came from this region last days. Mostly reaction on stock market rally, low liquidity and some speculation about moving CEE currencies faster to Eurozone.
IDEA: Buy EURPLN around current levels (4,44-4,43), where 4,40 looks like pretty good support again. Stoploss below this level @ 4,3850 offer. Initial target 4,50. If this broken, might see 4,60 again.
We have seen another big sell-off on EUR/CEE3 last week, but it seems like the region was once again victim of illiquidity and speculative players. Because not too many positive numbers came from this region last days. Mostly reaction on stock market rally, low liquidity and some speculation about moving CEE currencies faster to Eurozone.
IDEA: Buy EURPLN around current levels (4,44-4,43), where 4,40 looks like pretty good support again. Stoploss below this level @ 4,3850 offer. Initial target 4,50. If this broken, might see 4,60 again.
03 dubna 2009
3/4 Crude trading lower today
Crude Oil trading quietly lower today after yesterday's 9% rally after the G20 agreed to declare war on the global recession.
OPEC seems to have quietly accepted that to high oil prices will be counterproductive as it will prolong the current recession. On that basis Crude at $50 per barrel seems to have been accepted as a pragmatic price for now.
For now it will take its main direction from the value of the Dollar as the demand and supply situation is evenly poised. A dramatic rally higher from here however seems unlikely as we are heading into the seasonally weak demand months of April and May.
Technically May WTI Crude broke below the uptrend from the January lows but found support at the 20 day moving average before the Thursday rally took prices back into the fifties. A period of sideways trading between $55 and $47.5 is the most likely outcome.
Support: 5100 5000 4865 4760
Resistance: 5290 5465
OPEC seems to have quietly accepted that to high oil prices will be counterproductive as it will prolong the current recession. On that basis Crude at $50 per barrel seems to have been accepted as a pragmatic price for now.
For now it will take its main direction from the value of the Dollar as the demand and supply situation is evenly poised. A dramatic rally higher from here however seems unlikely as we are heading into the seasonally weak demand months of April and May.
Technically May WTI Crude broke below the uptrend from the January lows but found support at the 20 day moving average before the Thursday rally took prices back into the fifties. A period of sideways trading between $55 and $47.5 is the most likely outcome.
Support: 5100 5000 4865 4760
Resistance: 5290 5465
3/4 Pád zlata
XAUUSD: Zlato smeruje k pádu druhý týždeň po sebe, po tom čo sa investori odkláňajú od "bezpečných nástrojov" k akciám po zvyšujúcom sa apetíte investorov k riziku. Ďalším dôvodom pádu zlata je aj včera dohodnutý stimulačný balík, ktorý môže mať za následky že MMF bude odpredávať svoje zlaté rezervy aby zvýšil svoju hotovosť. Supporty 900 a 885. Rezistencie 932 a 947.
Přihlásit se k odběru:
Příspěvky (Atom)