Prepared by John Hardy, Consulting Forex Strategist, Saxo Bank
A quick overview at some of the issues with today’s nonfarm payrolls. There is more than enough fishy statistical manipulation going on over at the BLS – that should be the main point of this little article. Many of the big banks – like Goldman Sachs - are predicting a better than expected number today, and I’m sure they have more of a chance of being right than any guess that I can come up with, but the main point here is to show how the job market may be much worse than what the BLS is telling us over the last many months, regardless of the specific July number. This means that even a positive release today could be met with a wall of cynicism and actually serve as a catalyst for risk averse action in the market (powerful bond rally, steep equity sell-off and the greenback and yen taking the rest of the G-10 currencies behind the shed for a lashing.) This market is an accident waiting to happen…..
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