18 února 2009

18/2 Gold increases for a second straight day

Gold increases for a second straight day on speculation the recession will deepen, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a haven asset. Silver also gained. Gold futures for April delivery climbed $2.10, or 0.2 percent, to $969.60 an ounce at 11:28 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold gained 5.5 percent last year.

Silver futures for March delivery rose 17 cents, or 1.2%, to $14.18 an ounce. Silver jumped 24% this year through yesterday after dropping 24% in 2008.

17 února 2009


Copper has now given back most of the China and Obama stimulus enduced rallly. A break below 148 (todays low) could open up for a move back towards the January low at 139.20. Only word of caution is that the LME Copper still has some way to go yet before support gets broken 3220 (currently 3280).

The reason behind the ongoing slump is continued build in stockpiles combined with the deepening global economic crisis. Copper is a good economic activity indicator and therefore worth keeping a close eye on.


Gold continues to rally as investors scramble to find a safe haven to protect their assets. This latest move comes as global stock markets once again has come under pressure with the S&P close to the important $800 support level. The move happened despite the stronger dollar overnight with the Euro breaking down through support at 1.2700.

Holdings of Gold in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD:arcx) has climbed to a new record of 985.86 metric tons which is the equivalent of 348,000 lots of Gold futures. Considering that total open interest in Gold futures on COMEX stands at 361,000 exchange we are looking at a monster.

Support: 954 945 931
Resistance: 980 990

17/2 Nobody wants to own EM currencies right now

EURPLN 4.88 last , EURHUF 308.50 last, EURCZK 29.37 last.

Increased risk aversion, deepening economic crisis and worries about eastern Europe’s financial stability continue to weigh on EM currencies. EUR/HUF is approaching critical levels, which will trigger at least verbal intervention and could derail the monetary easing cycle. Although the Polish central bank kept its distance with intervention so far, EUR/PLN approaching 5.00 could trigger stronger reaction from the authorities.

16 února 2009


A quiet day in progress as US pit sessions will be closed for President’s Day. Both markets will be trading normal hours electronically but with reduced activity.

CLH9 is trading unchanged despite news that Japan’s economy contracted by the most since 1974 and the Nikkei slumped to a 26 year low.

Sup: 3500 3328
Res: 3850 4055 4220

GCJ9 traded sideways Friday after the strong rally during the week. A stronger dollar should cap the upside for now. Any correction however should meet new demand as market is very focused on a $1,000 target. How EURUSD is going to cope with the important 1,2700 area could decide the direction for the day.