03 dubna 2009

3/4 Crude trading lower today

Crude Oil trading quietly lower today after yesterday's 9% rally after the G20 agreed to declare war on the global recession.

OPEC seems to have quietly accepted that to high oil prices will be counterproductive as it will prolong the current recession. On that basis Crude at $50 per barrel seems to have been accepted as a pragmatic price for now.

For now it will take its main direction from the value of the Dollar as the demand and supply situation is evenly poised. A dramatic rally higher from here however seems unlikely as we are heading into the seasonally weak demand months of April and May.

Technically May WTI Crude broke below the uptrend from the January lows but found support at the 20 day moving average before the Thursday rally took prices back into the fifties. A period of sideways trading between $55 and $47.5 is the most likely outcome.

Support: 5100 5000 4865 4760
Resistance: 5290 5465

3/4 Pád zlata

XAUUSD: Zlato smeruje k pádu druhý týždeň po sebe, po tom čo sa investori odkláňajú od "bezpečných nástrojov" k akciám po zvyšujúcom sa apetíte investorov k riziku. Ďalším dôvodom pádu zlata je aj včera dohodnutý stimulačný balík, ktorý môže mať za následky že MMF bude odpredávať svoje zlaté rezervy aby zvýšil svoju hotovosť. Supporty 900 a 885. Rezistencie 932 a 947.

30 března 2009

30/3 Crude oil update

Crude oil fell below $50 a barrel as tumbling equity markets indicated that the recession in major energy-consuming countries may deepen, curbing fuel demand.

Oil fell as much as 4.6 percent after the Obama administration said that General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC must overhaul recovery plans and some banks may need additional assistance. The dollar strengthened to its highest against the euro in more than a week, limiting the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

30/3 Gold update

Considering the weakening global stock markets this morning, gold ought to qualify for a strong start into the new week. After all, troubled equity prices have been a popular reason for higher gold prices the past few weeks. Yet, obviously, this isn’t enough to stimulate sufficient buyers in Asia and Europe today. It may have something to do with gold’s weak session on Friday, or the generally subdued mood among the gold-bug community.
Just a month ago, optimistic reports came thick and fast, targeting prices from $1500 up to $2500. But instead the metal trades around $950, not even able to overcome last year’s all-time-high. Now some of those analysts are more circumspect, or perhaps more realistic. Medium-term targets recently being passed around are much more conservative, about $1250 per ounce. A surprisingly subdued tone was also in vogue at the City wire’s Fund Selectors Forum in Zurich last week.
During the conference fund managers were asked about their three year view for gold. Only 35 percent imagined that the metal would then be above $1000; 48 percent couldn’t foresee it. In other words, few expect the crisis will last as long, thus it is not necessary to hold gold over
the period. Most recent investment is probably a temporary hedge.

30/3 EURUSD po minulotýždňovom oslabovaní opäť vyššie

EURUSD: Dolár po minulotýždňovom oslabovaní sa opäť posúva vyššie. Momentálne voči EUR posilinil až na úroveň 1,3160. Dôvodom je opätovný nárast averzie voči riziku a s tým spojený prepad akciových trhov. Akcie sa prepadli najmä kvôli neschváleniu záchranného balíka pre americké automobilky GM a Chrysler.