21/5 Meď

Futures: Cena medi (HGM9) sa dnes po šiestich pozitívnych dňoch dostala na negatívne úrovne a prepadla sa od dnešného rána o 3,5%. Momentálne sa obchoduje okolo úrovne 203-204. Dôvodom sú obavy z recesie v USA, keď včera na zasadaní Fed-u vyšli správy, že stav americkej ekonomiky je horší ako sa čakalo.

21/5 Gold today

Gold continues to go up in last couple of days, mostly due to USD weakness and due to possible “inflation hedging”. We might see some small correction towards 935, but generally trend looks still bullish.

My idea: Buy around 938-940 (current level) and targeting 960. Stoploss at 931-932.

20/5 FX Market Wrap: bizarre day in FX land

Today we had a bizarre day for FX and all markets… US Treasury Secretary Geithner announced a that the PPID program would start up within the next six weeks and this triggered a bizarre and explosive rally in equities. And yet bonds remained rock solid and even rallied later in the session sharply as equities reversed course just as quickly as they rallied and closed lower on the day. In FX land, the moves were extremely divergent. It made sense that EURUSD burst through key resistance and to new highs with the rally in equities. These developments and heavy US energy inventory draws also bulled up oil, which ripped the bottom out of USDCAD. When equities reversed, however, the USD hardly managed to pull itself off the mat, challenging the idea that risk aversion is USD bullish.

The JPY had its eyes on bonds all day long and was stronger into the close – a very firm performance considering the burst of risk appetite earleier in the session, which it largely ignored. AUD is beginning to look a bit weak in the knees, especially at the hands of the JPY as its days of outperformance may fade quickly here – it had a daily Doji on the daily candles in AUDUSD. On a side note, GBP blasted to new highs versus EUR and USD despite not particularly supportive data – all the way through the 200-day moving average in GBPUSD, in fact – the last leg of that rally has been extremely steep. For the overall USD picture, we focus on the 1.3725 area in EURUSD as mentioned earlier today – a hold of this break requires a bullish stance while a reversal and close back through that level is needed for the bears to get their hopes up.

For my money, the interest trades may be tests of the JPY crosses lower considering the JPY’s strong performance today – not to mention whether this USD weak move can extend any farther if the equity reversal proves significant (the USD Index has tracked the VIX very closely of late, for example). It is odd to see EURJPY and EURUSD head in opposite directions for very long, at least.

John Hardy, Consulting FX Strategist, Saxo Bank

20.5 Euro moves up

Portugal finance minister sees no EU concern over stronger Euro. This sees EUR higher.

20.5 Dopyt po zlate

XAUUSD: Dopyt po zlate sa za posledný štvrťrok zvýšil o 38%, ťahaný najmä zvýšenými investíciami v klenotníctve. Celosvetový dopyt vzrástol podľa "World Gold Council" z 733,9 metrických ton v minulom roku na 1015,50 metrických ton. Cena zlata nadalej pokračuje v náraste a momentálne testuje hranicu 930.

20.5 Dopyt po zlate

XAUUSD: Dopyt po zlate sa za posledný štvrťrok zvýšil o 38%, ťahaný najmä zvýšenými investíciami v klenotníctve. Celosvetový dopyt vzrástol podľa "World Gold Council" z 733,9 metrických ton v minulom roku na 1015,50 metrických ton. Cena zlata nadalej pokračuje v náraste a momentálne testuje hranicu 930.