05 února 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

For those that own a helmet, put in on now!
For those that don’t, run out now and buy two, you’ll no doubt need a spare before the day is through.
Upbeat, aren’t I? Well the harsh reality is that my timing may have been a little off as far as this equity correction was concerned (too early to pull the trigger) but here we are on the precipice of a massive pullback and in the words (somewhat bastardised) of my former Prime Minister Paul Keating “this is the correction we had to have”.

If we look at the picture objectively, we now see the obvious;

• A NFP number today that could swing at least +/-150k either way, and in all likelihood to the downside
• The PIIGS in some serious trouble that is not just rumor and hearsay any longer, but I mean “SERIOUS” trouble. Spanish equities lost over 6% last night/yesterday
• Gold is now the new/next risky asset, don’t believe me look at the $55 move lower overnight
• The bulls have lost control!
• And to prove the point the DXY hits 6 month highs

Prepare for pain and lots of it…..
Risk is now firmly off the menu (as it weren’t already obvious) and those positions that have as yet not been unwound will be today and over the coming days.
Overnight, outside of massive sell off’s on all global equity indices, we had the SNB intervene and prove useless, EURCHF 2% higher on the move and now given all of it back. The RBA monetary policy statement gave the market an understanding of how they were positioned and that being they see GDP forecasts for 2010/11 between 3.25 and 3.5% while their intermediate target for the OCR by year end is likely to be 4.5%. None of it really matters… buy dollars and just sit there for another little bit longer until this thing stabilizes.

I am not going to offer any insight into FX crosses today, simply because it’s all too messy and volatile. Your best bet is to stay out of the market today and watch the carnage from afar.
On my USDCAD position I was taken out on my lowered stop loss and took back the other half of my position for a small profit.

Good luck out there today and a good weekend to all.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

04 února 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Quiet session in Asia last night save for movement in the antipodeans, with rather poor data hitting both the AUD and NZD. On the Kiwi we had unemployment hit 10yr highs, while the AUD was faced with rather disappointing building approvals data. Both currencies showed some serious downside and the AUDUSD in particular not only gave back yesterday’s gains, but now this morning continues to trade heavy with a move to test support at 0.8750 firmly on the cards.

On the other majors, we had a rumor of potential Spanish sovereign downgrading hitting the wires late in the European session adding further pressure to the EURUSD alongside the Portuguese drama’s unfolding. Needless to say this morning we had Spanish officials denying everything while Portuguese CDS spreads hit fresh record highs. On that note, we also had the 1.3850 barrier taken out this morning in the EURUSD with fresh stops below taking us to a low this morning of 1.3830. It’s going to be heavy going from here for the pair before the ECB announcement and Trichet’s press conference. Needless to say I like this thing lower and save for some argy bargy to the upside (capped at 1.3900/30) we should see this thing unravel to further downside into 1.3750.

The Cable trades equally heavily now pushing into support at the 1.5850 level and likely to take out the stops sitting below. 1.5830 if taken opens a vacuum into 1.5750. But all eyes today will be on the BOE and whether or not there is an official end to the QE program. All signs point to further Cable weakness.

Outside of the above CB meetings, today brings the weekly jobless claims data from the US which will work as a precursor to tomorrows NFP data. I don’t have a clean view on pairs today and would prefer to stay out of the market looking for the dust to settle around tomorrow’s data.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

03 února 2010

3/2 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil: Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY
- Americke akcie ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie v pozitivnom teritoriu. Niekolko pozitivnych sprav z celeho sveta pomohlo vniest dobru naladu na trhy, co sa ihned odrazilo na ich vzraste.

- Oslabenie USD, rast brazilskeho realu sposobeny rastom priemyselnej produkcie v Brazilii (co je dalsi znak ozivenia globalnej ekonomiky a potvrdenie, ze dopyt po komoditach sa zvysi) ako aj rast predaja existujucich domov v USA a lepsie hospodarske vysledky firiem boli spravy dna, ktore hybali trhmi.

- Na zaklade rastu predaja existujucich domov si polepsili stavebne firmy.

- Akcie spolocnosti Lexmark International vzrastli potom co spolocnost ohlasila, ze ocakava lepsie vysledky ako su ocakavania analytikov v Q1 2010. Je to vdaka novym produktom a znizovaniu nakladov.

- Whirlpool Corp. vzrastla potom ako najvacsi vyrobca spotrebnej elektroniky oznamil, ze prijmy spolocnosti sa viac ako zdvojnasobili v Q4 2009.

- News Corp. (majitel filmovych studii Twentieth Century Fox) taktiez vzrastla na zaklade rastu zisku z noveho filmu Avantar a rastucim trzbam z kablovej televizie.

- Dnes budu zverejnene udaje o ISM Non-manufacturing (16:00 SEC), ktore ocakavame ze budu negativne, kedze sektor sluzieb v USA ma stale velke problemy s ozivenim.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. odporucame nakup po poklesoch ku 5710 s cielom na 5755. Stop pod 5695.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po poklesoch ku 5285 s cielom na 5315. Stop pod 5272.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po poklesoch ku 1103 s cielom na 1111. Stop pod 1100.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Accor, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel – Lucent, ASML Holding, Banco Popular Es., BASF, Deutsche Boerse, DSM, Finmeccanica, Fortum, BHP Billiton, Cable & Wireless, Cairn Energy, Carnival, Diageo, Eurasian Natural, G4S Plc, International Po., Invensys, Kazakhmys Plc.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Aegon, Anheuser-Busch I., Snam Rete Gas, Unione de Banche., Anglo American, BP, Cobham, Severn Trent.

ZLATO-
Zlato vzrastlo najviac za posledne obdobie na zaklade spekulacii, ze posilovanie USD sa zastavi co podpori alternativne investicie do komodit.

- Dalsi stimulacny balicek vo vyske 100 mld. USD zahrnuty v navrhu US rozpoctu znamena dalsie zadlzovanie a tlacenie penazi, co mnohi investori chapu ako dovod pre investicie do ropy a zlata.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po poklesoch ku 1114 s cielom na 1120 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1111.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po poklesoch ku 16.75 s cielom na 16.84 USD/uncu. Stop pod 16.72.

ROPA- Komercne zasoby ropy v USA vzrastli. Tieto udaje by mohli byt potvrdene dnes aj informaciami o oficialnych zasobach ropy v USA (rast o 400k). Nadbytok zasob by mohol byt znamkou mierneho oslabenia, ale hlavny faktorom posunu cien ropy na vyssie urovne bude oslabovanie USD a zaujem investorov o rizikovejsie aktiva vratane komodit.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 77.40 s cielom na 78.00 USD/barel. Stop pod 77.15.
ZEMNY PLYN
- Ceny su ovplyvnovane hlavne dopytom zo strany priemyslu, ktory je najvacsi spotrebitelom plynu. Ceny pocas celeho minuleho roka klesali, co bolo zapricinene poklesom priemyselnej vyroby a ekonomickej aktivity.

- V tychto dnoch vidime zvyseny zaujem o komodity ako alternativnu investiciu ku oslabujucemu sa USD. Urcity vplyv ma stale aj chladne pocasie. Pri zemnom plyne vsak nemozeme ocakavat vyraznejsi narast cien, pokial sa vyrazne nezvysi ekonomicka aktivita.
EUR/USD
- Komentare greckeho premiera o povode krizy v tzv. spekulativnych hrach, ktorych cielom bolo oslabenie EUR je usmevne okrem toho, ze je dost nevhodne. Je velmi jednoduche klast vinu na investorov, ktori presuvaju kapital tam, kde ma najlepsie moznosti na zhodnotenie ako sa pozriet na zle politicke rozhodnutia a falsovanie statistik, ktore sa datuje k roku 1999, kedy sa EUR uviedlo do zivota.

- Grecky premier opat vysvetli program znizovania dlhov cez zmrazenie rastu platov vo verejnom sektore, zvysenim veku na odchod do dochodku, zvysenim dani a reformou danoveho systemu. Celkovo vsak plan kladie doraz na prijmovu cast a nie na razantne znizovanie vydavkov (len toto je momentalne spravny pristup). Zamyslenie sa nad prirovnanim postupu greckych politikov s tym co zazivame aj v nasich zemepisnych sirkach stoji za to.

- Kratkodobe posilenenie EUR je sposobene navratom chuti investorov investovat do rizikovejsich aktiv, co vsak bude posobit pozitivne na EUR len docasne.

- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni 1.3985 s posunom na 1.4050, pripadne na 1.4080 EURUSD. Stop pod 1.3935.

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

A painfully quiet Asian session last night has given the market little if any direction for the European open. Not so much as even a glimmer of headlines or jawboning, quiet I tell you, very quiet.
So where does that leave us for today? In simple terms the market is a little bit edgy and outside of waiting for the NFP data on Friday (and the relevant positioning/book squaring that entails) we are sideways at best. As I mentioned at our internal morning meeting today, I remain a USD bull, albeit a little more cautiously this week than last, especially with the DXY running into that 80 zone and subsequent intermediate resistance. However I can equally not rule out a return of some risk appetite which was clearly absent all week last week in the wake of the Obama debacle, the WEF etc… and this is being evidenced most in the commodity currencies on the back of both gold and oil looking a bit healthier.

The AUDUSD has staged some return to form filling the gap that it left on the way down after the RBA decision, with 0.8930 now marking the next resistance region. I remain overall (medium term) bearish this cross but equally concede that in the short term there is definitely ground it needs to make up after recent heavy trading. Equally the USDCAD remains heavy although true to form is grinding and will likely continue to do so in the coming days with the Canadian NFP also due Friday. I remain short and now look for 1.0520/30 as the next intermediate target lower before we head to 1.0480/50.

The EURUSD today is going to take out the stops that have been building into 1.4020 and we should see a print above the 1.4030 level. The key here will be as I said yesterday whether we close above there or not. A higher close to me signals 1.4150 as a retracement target and one that for now I’m not ruling out. On the Cable, I am faced with a tale of two cities, in that overall I remain a bear, but am equally bullish in the very short term as today we head to test 1.6080 and a break here opens 1.6130/50 at which point I sell again.

The USDJPY remains a pain in the a**** for me for now and I prefer not to go near it for now.

On the data front today we look to the Euro zone retail sales and US non – manufacturing ISM data to guide price action.
Good luck out there today.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

02 února 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

I was out sick yesterday and thus no comment.
I walk in this morning however full of jubilation (much like many other Australian mortgage holders) having witnessed the RBA take a break from their hiking cycle. This proved to be much to the surprise of the broader market, however, once again playing contrarian has proved (for me at least) profitable. The rhetoric that Governor Stephens delivered was surprisingly upbeat and thus created much doubt in the mind of punters out there. But he did touch on an important factor that will hold further Australian economic growth in the palm of its hand, and that of course is China. Mentioning what I have been screaming about for months now, and that is that not everything might be as rosy as we are led to believe over there. The recent macro shakeup that came in the form of seemingly tightening credit lines in China was enough to spook the RBA to hold off for now. Interestingly I’m inclined to believe that they will do likewise come the next meeting in March, again with mention of the local Australian banks having gone that extra mile on raising rates that has allowed the RBA to sit on the sidelines for the time being.

Unsurprisingly the AUDUSD tanked losing over 1.1% overnight and took an equally big hit on the AUDJPY taking it to multi month lows.

Elsewhere the overnight session seemed fairly quiet for the most part with the only movement of note being in Asian equities which also took a fairly large nosedive lower.

On the day, the data front presents us with little to work with so markets should be fairly tame. I remain short of the GBPCHF and now fresh shorts established in the USDCAD. On both I look for decisive breaks lower to unfold in the coming days and feel that the USDCAD, while it may rally at least once more presents more opportunities to fade the move looking for a return into 1.0500 and lower.

The EURUSD is still looking heavy and the key pivot now reverts lower into 1.4030/80, with a daily close above signaling short term retracements higher. However, conversely the ability to maintain daily closes below this level allow for further tests of purported barriers at 1.3850 and lower into key support at 1.3750.
On the Cable, while liking it lower the risk is now firmly on the day for a squeeze and cleanout higher. Look for 1.5980/1.6030 to hold the topside and offer fresh intraday selling opportunities.

That should cover it for today, while I take stock and have a closer look at the market in a week which is data heavy in the tail end.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

I was out sick yesterday and thus no comment.
I walk in this morning however full of jubilation (much like many other Australian mortgage holders) having witnessed the RBA take a break from their hiking cycle. This proved to be much to the surprise of the broader market, however, once again playing contrarian has proved (for me at least) profitable. The rhetoric that Governor Stephens delivered was surprisingly upbeat and thus created much doubt in the mind of punters out there. But he did touch on an important factor that will hold further Australian economic growth in the palm of its hand, and that of course is China. Mentioning what I have been screaming about for months now, and that is that not everything might be as rosy as we are led to believe over there. The recent macro shakeup that came in the form of seemingly tightening credit lines in China was enough to spook the RBA to hold off for now. Interestingly I’m inclined to believe that they will do likewise come the next meeting in March, again with mention of the local Australian banks having gone that extra mile on raising rates that has allowed the RBA to sit on the sidelines for the time being.

Unsurprisingly the AUDUSD tanked losing over 1.1% overnight and took an equally big hit on the AUDJPY taking it to multi month lows.

Elsewhere the overnight session seemed fairly quiet for the most part with the only movement of note being in Asian equities which also took a fairly large nosedive lower.

On the day, the data front presents us with little to work with so markets should be fairly tame. I remain short of the GBPCHF and now fresh shorts established in the USDCAD. On both I look for decisive breaks lower to unfold in the coming days and feel that the USDCAD, while it may rally at least once more presents more opportunities to fade the move looking for a return into 1.0500 and lower.

The EURUSD is still looking heavy and the key pivot now reverts lower into 1.4030/80, with a daily close above signaling short term retracements higher. However, conversely the ability to maintain daily closes below this level allow for further tests of purported barriers at 1.3850 and lower into key support at 1.3750.
On the Cable, while liking it lower the risk is now firmly on the day for a squeeze and cleanout higher. Look for 1.5980/1.6030 to hold the topside and offer fresh intraday selling opportunities.

That should cover it for today, while I take stock and have a closer look at the market in a week which is data heavy in the tail end.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

2/2 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil: Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY
- Americke akcie ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie pozitivne po velmi zmiesanom minulom tyzdni. Wall Street ozil na zaklade vyrazne lepsich udajov ISM Manufacturing a lepsim vysledkov spolocnosti Exxon Mobil Corp. ISM Manufacturing potvrdil, ze vyrobny sektor rastol najviac za poslednych sest rokov (rastli objednavky, produkcia ako aj zamestnanost v sektore). Pozitivne posobili aj dobre udaje z vyrobneho sektoru v Cine, Australii a Eurozone.

- Akciove trhy mozno ani nemali inu moznost ako rast, kedze boli vyrazne podporene pozitivnymi spravami a tym, ze boli minuly tyzden vypredane. Otazne je, ako sa tieto data premenia do realneho rastu ekonomiky?

- US prezident Barack Obama predstavil novy rozpocet s planom na znizenie obrovskeho deficitu USA. Plan je pozitivna sprava pre dlhopisy a zaroven negativna pre akcie a ekonomicky rast. V plane je zahrnute zvysenie dani z prijmu (pre najbohatsich) a korporatnych dani. Akcie prekvapivo vzrastli aj po tychto spravach.

- Rozpocet kladie doraz na tvorbu pracovnych miest a zahrna dalsich 100 mld. USD na podporu spotreby (co znamena dalsie zadlzovanie a tlacenie penazi).

- Exxon Mobil Corp. vzrastol po zverejneni lepsich vysledkov vdaka vyssim cenam ropy a rastu produkcie, co utlmilo prepad dopytu po nafte a benzine.

- Spolocnosti CME Group Inc. (najvacsi organizator trhu s futures) sa darilo, potom co prenikli na verejnost spravy, ze ma zaujem o kupu casti spolocnosti News Corp., ktora vlastni Dow Jones Industrial Average.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 5670 s cielom na 5707. Stop loss pod 5647.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 5252 s cielom na 5290. Stop loss pod 5231.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 1087 s cielom na 1096. Stop loss pod 1082.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, Crédit Agricole, Delhaize Group, Deutsche Bank, Essilor, France Telecom, Generali, Iberdrola, Inditex, Associated Briti., Autonomy Corp., BT Group, Home Retail, HSBC Holdings, Inmarsat, Kingfisher, London Stock exc., Pearson, Royal Dutch Shell,

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Axa, Banco Popolare, BBVA, Bouygues, Detsche Telekom, EDF, Fresenius Medica., Admiral Group Pl., Antofagasta, Aviva, BskyB, Burberry Group, Compass Group, Diageo, Glaxosmithkline, Morrison Superma., Petrofac Ltd.

ZLATO-
Zlato vzrastlo najviac za posledne obdobie na zaklade spekulacii, ze posilovanie USD sa zastavi co podpori alternativne investicie do komodit.

- Dalsi stimulacny balicek vo vyske 100 mld. USD zahrnuty v navrhu US rozpoctu znamena dalsie zadlzovanie a tlacenie penazi, co mnohi investori chapu ako dovod pre investicie do ropy a zlata.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 1108 s cielom na 1122 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1099.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 16.72 s cielom na 16.90 USD/uncu. Stop pod 16.54.

ROPA-
Ceny ropy vzrastli po zverejneni lepsich ekonomickych dat v USA, co by mohlo znamenat vyssi dopyt po tejto surovine vo svete. Lepsie data z vyrobneho sektora prisli aj z Ciny a Eurozony (okrem Grecka, Spanielska a Irska).

- Spolocnost Royal Dutch Shell Plc bola nutena zastavit niektore casti svojich prevadzok v Nigerii, potom co nasledne sabotazi sa vyskytli problemy s presakovanim ropy.

- Dalsie faktory: chladnejsie pocasie v USA, hedzove fondy a spekulanti znizili cast svojich dlhych pozici vo futures, OPEC znizil produkciu ropy v januari prvykrat za poslednych pat mesiacov, clenovia OPEC planuju 140 novych projektov v priebehu nasledujucich piatich rokov (dalsich 12 mil. barelov denne).

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po poklesoch smerom ku 74.00 s cielom na 75.40 USD/barel. Stop pod 73.50.

EUR/USD -
Prekvapivo lepsie udaje z vyrobneho sektora v USA (ISM Manufacturin Index) nemali vyrazny vplyv na EURUSD. Bolo to zapricinene hlavne tym, ze sucasne urovne EURUSD zodpovedaju situaci spojenej s Greckom ako lepsim ekonomickym udajom z USA.

- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je negativny. Vyhlad pre EURUSD je v najblizsich dnoch velmi neisty. Predpokladame otvorenie novych kratkych pozicii, ktore by nas mali potiahnut nizsie k urovni 1.3750 EURUSD. Rezistencia je na 1.3940.

EUR/CZK - CZK vcelku dobre profituje zo zaujmu investorov o riziko. Je mozny dalsi posun na nizsie urovne, ale zaroven je nutne si sledovat aj pripadnu zmenu nalady na trhoch.

- Rezistencia je na 26.06 a podporna uroven na 25.76 EURCZK.

01 února 2010

1/2 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY

- Americke akcie ukoncili piatkove obchodovanie v cervenych cislach a to aj napriek vybornym udajom o raste US HDP za Q4 2009 (+5.7% na rocnej baze), rastu spotrebitelskej dovery (Univ. Of Michigan Confidence Index) ako aj indexu nakupnych manazerov (Chicago PMI). Ani tato ‚smrst‘ pozitivnych cisel nepomohla US trhom posunut sa vyssie. Naladu na trhoch ovplyvnili horsie vysledky niektorych technologickych spolocnosti a rovnako aj situacia tykajuca sa Grecka. Mohla by tato situacia naznacovat, ze terajsie akciove trhy su vysoko a ceny akcii nezodpovedaju buducemu ekonomickemu rastu a rastu ziskovosti firiem? Saxo Bank predpoveda S&P 500 na urovni 1042 (marec), 1084 (jun) a 1062 (september).

- Akcie spolocnosti Microsoft poklesli aj napriek lepsim vysledkom po komentary jednoho z jej predstavitelov, ze podnikatelsky sektor este nezvysil vydavky na novy softver.

- Tento tyzden budu zverejnovat vysledky: Exxon Mobil Corp. (dnes pred otvorenim US trhu, ocakavanie 1.188 EPS, predosle 0.980), Cisco Systems Inc., Pfizer Inc.

- Spolocnosti Exxon Mobil Corp a TransCanada Corp. uviedli, ze planovany plynovod v dlzke 2700 km z Aljasky do Alberty (Kanada) bude stat o 23-58% viac ako sa planovalo. Naklady by sa mali vysplhat na 32-41 mld USD.

- Dnesne klucove makro udaje z USA: Osobny prijem a spotreba za mesiac december, ISM Manufacturing za mesiac januar a stavebne vydavky za mesiac december. ISM ocakavame lepsi, kedze piatkovy Chicago PMI vzrastol.

- Dnes sme celkovo negativne naladeni na rizikove aktiva a doporucujeme predaje po narastoch.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po narastoch ku 5600 s cielom na 5570. Stop loss nad 5610.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch ku 5180 s cielom na 5140. Stop loss nad 5200.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch ku 1079 s cielom na 1073. Stop loss nad 1082.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Banco Popular Es., Banco santander, Crédit Agricole, Delhaize Group, Deutsche Bank, Essilor, France Telecom, Generali, Iberdrola, Inditex, Associated Briti., Autonomy Corp., BT Group, Home Retail, HSBC Holdings, Inmarsat, Kingfisher, London Stock exc., Pearson, Royal Dutch Shell,

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Axa, Banco Popolare, BBVA, Bouygues, Detsche Telekom, EDF, Fresenius Medica., Admiral Group Pl., Antofagasta, Aviva, BskyB, Burberry Group, Compass Group, Diageo, Glaxosmithkline, Morrison Superma., Petrofac Ltd.


ZLATO-
Zlato zostava stale pod vplyvom vyvoja USD. Podporna uroven je na 1086, nasledne 1075 a rozhodujuca podporna uroven je na 1060 USD/uncu. Celkovo ma trh byciu naladu vdaka fundamentalnym faktorom.

- Celkovo vsak odporucame opatrnost pri otvarani dlhych pozicii, kedze USD je hlavnym faktorom ovplyvnujucim ceny zlata.

- Zaujimave obchody s relativnou hodnotou mozu byt zlato/striebro a zlato/platina.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny. Pravdepodobne obchodovanie zostane v pasme 1075-1088 USD/uncu. Odporucame sledovat vyvoj, kedze ocakavame prelomenie tohto pasma.


STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je neutralny. Ocakavame konsolidaciu v pasme 16-16.50 USD/uncu.


ROPA-
Ceny ropy negativne ovplyvnil rast hodnoty USD. Ropa ukoncila obchodovanie druhykrat pod 200-dnovym klzavym priemerom, co je vyznamny ukazovatel technickej analyzy pre klesajuce ceny.

- Ropa by sa mohla posuvat nizsie aj tento tydzen na zaklade klesajuceho dopytu po palivach v USA.

- Ceny ropy by mohli podporit spravy z Nigerie, kde skupiny rebelov odvolali primerie a chcu pokracovat v utokoch na ropne polia v delte rieky Niger. Dotknute spolocnosti su Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Total SA a ENI SpA, ktore tazia ropu v spolupraci s Nigerian National Petroleum Corp.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 72.50 s prepadom ku 71.80 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.15.


EUR/USD -
Menovy par EURUSD je ovplyvny velkym objemom kratkych obchodov, ktore sa dostali na najvyssiu uroven od septembra 2009. Situacia okolo Grecka a jeho zachrany na EUR posobi velmi negativne. V oboch pripadoch, Grecko sa samo dostane z problemov alebo bude musiet prijat zahranicnu pomoc, je scenar podobny, obmedzenie vydavkov, pokles realnych prijmov, dopytu...atd. Velke problemy su aj v dalsich krajinach Eurozony (Spanielsko, Portugalsko, Taliansko) a tie samozrejme nepridavaju k investicnej atraktivnosti Eurozony ci EUR.

- Recesia v niektorych krajinach Eurozony budu zvazovat ruky ECB pri dalsom rozhodovani o vyske urokovych sadzieb. Celkovo je vidiet, ze USA sa dari lepsie zvladat krizu najma vdaka homogennosti ekonomickeho prostredia a pravdepodobne sa z nej dostanu skor ako Europa, co bude viest k rastu USD.

- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch ku 1.3915-20 pred posunom ku 1.3850 s cielom na 1.3750.