13 března 2009

13/3 Zvedne se cena zlata nad hranici 1000 dolarů?

Mnoho analytiku spatruje velka rizika v inflaci zalozena na velmi silnych monetarnich a zejmena fiskalnich opatrenich vlad velkych ekonomik v poslednim pul roce. To s velkou pravdepodobnosti muze zalozit silnou inflacni poptavku v horizontu zejmena pristiho roku. Jakmile si velka cast trhu zacne uvedomovat toto riziko, zlato by melo silne a dlouhodobe posilovat. Naproti tomu znacna cast dlouhych pozic ve zlate je v drzeni fondu ETF a hedge fondu.

13/3 Swiss Franc after yesterday's actions

The Swiss National Bank was out yesterday declaring all out war on the strengthening Swiss Franc, announcing strong new expansive monetary policy measures and getting right down to business with direct intervention in the currency market. The central bank timed the announcement and intervention with an already expected cut to its 3-month Libor target to 0.25% from 0.50%.

Lately, the Swiss Franc's strength was closely tracking equity weakness inversely, meaning the franc rallied as the mood soured in equities. The SNB had periodically tried to shoot across the market's bow with verbal intervention in the recent past, but traders seemed to be a bit complacent judging from yesterday's very sharp response to the SNB announcements.

The sharp equity rally of recent days coupled with this dramatic new policy response form the SNB sent EURCHF on a rocket ride toward key resistance in the 1.5300/1.5400 area - more than 5% up from recent lows and the sharpest move higher since the Euro's introduction. The move by the SNB to intervene was accompanied with announcements of new, so-called quantitative easing measures designed to avert the risk of deflation with the purchase of Swiss corporate debt.

The SNB has good reason to step in here: the country's heavy dependency on exports makes a strengthening currency particularly dangerous and deflationary as surplus nations are now bearing the brunt of the fallout from the global contraction in trade and consumption.

This has been mostly painfully evident in the Japanese experience. Second, Switzerland has enormous exposures to Eastern Europe, particularly in the form of mortgages, as more homebuyers financed in low yielding CHF loans rather than in their local currency during the boom times.
Any purposeful weakening of the franc, therefore, is a de facto bailout effort aimed toward Eastern Europe as it helps to ease some of the self-reinforcing process of capital flow pressures on the region. This latter reason allows the SNB to "get away with" weakening its currency to a certain extent without invoking hostility from other nations.
Looking ahead, we suspect that the SNB is not targeting any particular level in EURCHF, though 1.5000 is a likely line in the sand for support, both psychologically for market participants and for the SNB. To the upside, the next big level beyond the highs today at 1.5400 are 1.5850 and then 1.6000. In general, if the equity rally turns into a larger rally that extends beyond perhaps 800 in the S&P500, we could certainly see a test of the 1.6000 level, whereas if equities turn tail once again, the EURCHF cross is likely to simply stumble randomly in a range as the market is unwilling to fight a determined SNB and unwilling to sell francs due to the old pressures on CHF appreciation still very much in evidence.

The next key test for the CHF crosses could come at the April 2 G20 meeting, which could show larger efforts aimed at bailing out the struggling CEE economies. More broadly speaking, this announcement sees the SNB joining the US Fed and the BOE in competitive devaluation efforts: no nation wants an overly strong currency in this global economic environment - and the competitive devaluation theme becomes a dominant one.

13/3 Gold - still trading in the range $890-$940

Gold declined to $925 in Asia trading hours for a third weekly decline as rebound in equities reduced investor demand for a haven and deflation concerns persisted.

As we have seen clearly a “head and shoulders” pattern has formed, indicating a trading range between $890 to $940 and at the moment trading in-between.

13/3 Crude oil 4th week of gains ahead of the OPEC meeting

Crude oil increased to trade near $47 (fourth week of gains!!!!) as OPEC prepares to meet this weekend to seriously consider a fourth cut in output.

Despite four weeks of gains, the market is still oversupplied and the dynamic in the market is a supply and demand struggle. However as the equities have seen gains for a third day this has also had a positive effect on crude.

Right now the worst possible scenario (if you’re long) is that OPEC decides NOT to cut production (as they might see current $ level as sufficient at the moment) and equities will drop to new lows signaling further problems with future demand.

Support: 4545 4466 4367
Resistance: 4725 4880 5000

13/3 Emerging markets much stronger today

Emerging Markets opening up stronger this morning and continuing to firm in the first hours trading, buoyed by stocks and increased risk appetite. USDZAR trading definitively through 10.00 and opening up the possibility of a move to 9.80 , USDTRY and USDRUB all under pressure. CE3 region has done particularly well in light of the unprecedented CHF intervention in yesterday’s session, EUR/PLN trades through the 50day moving average at 4.4850 last trading 4.46 with all locals on the offer, and HUF and CZK also firming significantly.

12 března 2009

12/3 Swiss National Bank intervention - good for gold?

Besides the obvious negative implications for CHF, the Swiss National Bank's actions are potentially very bullish for gold. If other central banks respond by trying to weaken their currencies, then the obvious safe haven is gold. Beggar-thy-neighbor currency depreciation increases the spector of additional protectionist measures, which in turn is highly negative for legal-tender medium of exchange (i.e. paper currency).

12/3 "Head and shoulders" pattern is forming in gold

Gold advanced for a second day in Asia on the demand for the precious metal as a haven amid a decline in equities and the dollar.

A “head and shoulders” pattern is forming in gold, indicating possible further gains if prices hold above $890. Gold has to break the downside and clearly penetrate and close below it. Likewise if above $890 a good rebound to $940-950 will be the range in the coming days..

12/3 OPEC might cut output for the 4th time - speculation

Crude oil gained to trade around $43 over Asian session on speculation that OPEC might cut output for the fourth time. Traders purchased contracts to profit from short sales after crude dropped more than 7% yesterday as U.S. inventories showed a bigger-than-expected gain.

The OPEC meeting is this weekend in Vienna and the “oil-camp” is divided into 1) further cut reduction or 2) halt cuts and ensure a 100% compliance from the existing three previous cut’s.

As the market generally at this point have priced in a cut in production the market will be slightly bearish if no reductions will be made. As the inventories keep on rising, no signs of a economic recovery in U.S. (or rest of the world for that matter) and China declaring that their net crude-oil imports to the lowest in two years, we might see further reductions or at least a strong OPEC compliance to the existing cuts.

Support: 42.09 41.59 40.05

Resistance: 42.97 44.35 46.06

09 března 2009

9/3 Crude Oil climbs 1.80%

Crude oil climbed 1.80% trading at $46.40 in Asia trading hours on speculation that OPEC on the 15th March will decide to reduce their output. OPEC delivers about 40% of the world’s oil. Since September 2008 they have cut the production three times.

In Fridays late session Crude oil gained more than 4.4% after a worse-than-expected U.S. jobless report weakened the dollar and increased the appeal of commodities.

Support: 44.20 42.60 41.80
Resistance: 47.60 48.50 50.00