22 prosince 2009

22/12 Trader's Diary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory

As the days unfold and bring us ever closer to Christmas, fewer and fewer things seem to be happening across the market unsurprisingly. The upside of this of course is that you all have to endure less reading and rambling from yours truly.

So in short, little if anything to report and for those that read yesterday’s comment all the same rules apply.

I will be sending one more comment tomorrow and that should do it until January 5th when hopefully the market starts to pick up a little bit more.

In the meantime;

USDJPY: Stay away.
GBPUSD: Sell rallies.
AUDUSD: Sell rallies.
EURUSD: Capped at 1.4370, sell rallies.

21 prosince 2009

21/12 Trader's Diary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Fairly quiet overnight as almost everyone expected the only exception to the rule was the EURCHF which had an ugly move lower trading into 1.4815 but then quickly rebounding into 1.4925 at the time of print.

Hard to know what (if anything) is going through the minds of the SNB but needless to say the market is now anxiously awaiting their involvement. I am not even prepared to offer an opinion here other than to say that this move in my view was long overdue and I’m happy to see it happen.

Moving swiftly on looking at the broader market and I have nothing for you, it’s the week leading into Christmas and to all I suggest getting the last bit of your shopping in and staying warm with loved ones. The last thing any of you should be doing is looking at this market with a view to getting involved.

However, for those of you that can’t help yourselves, here’s a brief synopsis;

EURUSD: Lower, look for 1.4280 to break and 1.4250 to be touched within the next few days.
GBPUSD: Keep selling it, 1.6350 marks the overall peak for now.
USDJPY: Play the range, 90.80 down to 88.80
AUDUSD: Sell rallies.

There will be more comments this week, but as you can plainly tell they’re not going to be as inflammatory or as exciting as my previous attempts.

21/12 Ekonomický komentár "Kúp, predaj, podrž"

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy zaznamenali vyrazny prepad pocas minulotyzdnoveho obchodovania. Hlavnymi pricinami boli predaj akci Citigroup Inc. s diskontom a predpokladany pokles ziskovosti spolocnosti Best Buy Co. a Fedex Corp. Na druhej strane vyssie ako ocakavane prijmy spolocnosti Oracle Corp. and lepsia predpoved pre Research In Motion Ltd. pomohli tlmit tento prepad.

- Niektore banky zacali predcasne splacat vladnu pomoc, ktoru dostali v ramci programu TARP. Robia to prostrednictvom predaja novych akcii, co nema velku podporu u existujucich akcionarov a zapricinuje vyrazny pokles cien bankovych titulov.

- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA okrem Chicago Fed National Activity Index o 14:30 SEC. Akekolvek udaje mensie ako nula znamenaju, ze US ekonomika rastie pomalsie ako je historicky trend.

- Celkovo vidime predaj a realizovanie ziskov z obchodovania s akciami ku koncu ropa.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5825 s cielom pri 5804. Stop nad 5835.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny.Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5190 s cielom na 5163. Stop nad 5205.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 1094 s cielom na 1087. Stop nad 1097.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): ASML Holding, Deutsche Boerse, Merck KGaA, Reed Elsevier, Ryanair, Sanofi-Aventis.

- Dnesne odporucane na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Allianz, Anheuser-Busch I., Axa, Banca Monte Dei., BMW, BNP Paribas, Capgemini, Carrefour, Crédit Agricole.

ROPA -
Rope sa zacina darit, kedze investori ocakavaju v buducom roku ekonomicke ozivenie, vyssi dopyt zo strany rozvijajucich sa ekonomik ako aj vyssi dopyt z USA.

- Ako zaujimavy tip by sme videli predaj februaroveho kontraktu na ropu WTI a nakup februaroveho kontraktu na ropu Brent. WTI ropa je mierne drahsie v porovnani s ropou Brent, kedze jedna z kanadskych rafinerii vdaka poziaru musela zastavit dodavky ropy do USA. To posunulo ceny ropy WTI vysse urovne oproti rope Brent, z coho sa crta kratkodoba moznost pre arbitraz.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Geopoliticka rizika pomahaju rastu cien ropy. Dnesne obchodovanie by malo by v pasme 74.10-75.30 USD/barel.

ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Horna hranica cien je limitovana na urovni 1119. Odporucame predaje s cielom testovat uroven 1100 s cielom na 1000 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1123.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.45 s cielom znovu otestovat uroven 17.20 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.55.

EUR/USD -
Silny trend posilnovania USD sa zda, ze pomalicky straca na sile, aspon nateraz. USD je pozitivne ovplyvneny niektorymi lepsimi datami z USA, co vyvolava spekulacie, ze FED by mohol zacat aktivnejsie presadzovat svoju menovu politiku (stahovanie penazi z obehu a urokove sadzby). Otazne je, ci FED bude naozaj taky razantny a zacne zvysovat urokove sadzby, co by znamenalo vyssie naklady na splacanie US dlhu (co si zadlzene USA nie velmi mozu dovolit), alebo bude riskovat vyssiu inflaciu.

- Tohto tyzdnove ekonomicke ukazovatele z USA by mali byt podporit USD.

- Na EURUSD mame neutralny vyhlad. Vidime konsolidaciu v pasme 1.4285-1.4380 EURUSD. Riziko prelomenia urovne 1.4450 predtym ako sa posunie nizsie.

EUR/CZK-
Vyhlad na CZK: EURCZK: 26.00-27.00 a USDCZK: 18.00-19.25.

- Pri obchodovani s CZK bude prevladat velmi nizka likvidita. CZK bude preto ovplyvnena vyvojom EURUSD a dianim na akciovych trhoch.

- Rezistencia je na 26.65 a podporna uroven na 26.06-26.12 EURCZK.