11 prosince 2009

11/12 Ekonomický komentár

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v ciernych cislach. Hlavnym faktorom bol pokles ziadosti o registraciu nezamestnanych a lepsie udaje o deficite zahranicneho obchodu USA. Tieto dva udaje investorom naznacili, ze ekonomicky rast sa zvysuje.

- Deficit zahranicneho obchodu sa znizil, co bolo zapricinene hlavne slabym USD. Podobne profitovali zo slabuceho USD aj spolocnosti FedEx Corp. a United Parcel Service Inc. vdaka vyraznemu rastu trzieb na zahranicnych trhoch.

- Spolocnost Coca-Cola zhodnotila o 1.3% potom ako oznamila, ze bude znovu predavat svoje vyrobky cez siet najvacsieho svetoveho velkoobchodoneho predajcu Costco, potom ako obe strany vyriesili nezhody ohladne cien.

- Dnesne obchodovanie bude pozitivne ovplyvnene relativne dost dobrymi udajmi o hospodarskom raste ako aj udajmi o priemyselnej produkcii v Cine, ktore boli zverejnene dnes v noci a udajmi o malobchodnych trzbach za mesiac november v USA (mozu urcit smerovanie trhu).

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Ahold, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, BASF, CRH, EDF, Electricidade De., Fortum, GDF Suez, Gropue Bruxelles.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatori): Abertis Infraest.; ACS, Adidas, Air Liquide, Banca Monte Dei., Banco de Sabadel., Banco Popolare, BBVA, Daimler.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup po prelomeni urovne 1105 s cielom na 1110. Stop pod 1101.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup pro prelomeni urovne 5735 s cielom pri 5770. Stop pod 5722.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup po prelomeni urovne 5257 s cielom na 5288. Stop pod 5241.

ROPA
- Obchodovanie s ropou bude pozitivne ovplyvnene relativne dost dobrymi udajmi o hospodarskom raste ako aj udajmi o priemyselnej produkcii v Cine, ktore boli zverejnene dnes v noci.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je pozitivny. Odporucame nakup okolo urovne 71 s cielom na 73.00 USD/barel. Stop pod 70.10.

ZLATO-
Nalada na trhu sa po vyraznom vypredaji zlata minuly piatok pravdepodobne zmeni a mozeme vidiet znovu otestovanie urovne 1170 USD/uncu.

- Hlavny faktor je narast zaujmu o rizikovejsie aktiva a s tym spojeny pokles hodnoty USD.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup okolo urovne 1135 s cielom na 1150 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1129.

ZLATO vyhlad ku koncu roka

- Na zaklade technickych indikatorov sa zlato stale nachadza ovela vyssie ako by malo byt, co vytvara tlak na korekciu. Ta bude zavisiet od zaujmu investorov zrealizovat zisky a uzavriet dlhe pozicie alebo ci budu otvarat nove dlhe pozicie aj nadalej.

- Tradicny koncorocny predaj zlata zo strany centralnych bank a tazobnych spolocnosti neexistuje a prevlada zaujem investorov o zlato ako ochranu pred inflaciou a slabnucim USD.

- Ku koncu roka nevidime vyrazny rast alebo pokles cien zlata, ale skor obchodovanie v pasme 1125-1175 USD/uncu ako pripravu na rast v buducom roku. Velky pohyb smerom dolu, by vsak mohlo sposobit posilnenie USD, kedze na trhu cakat vela kratkych pozici v EURUSD.

STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakukp po prelomeni urovne 17.50 s cielom na 17.70 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.40.

EUR/USD
- Je mozne, ze zaujem o rizikovjesie aktiva sa v najblizsich dnoch vrati na trhy. To by mohlo nastat ked sa bude EURUSD opat obchodovat nad 55 DMA (55-dnovy Denny Klzavy Priemer), momentalne okolo 1.4856.

- Odporucame sledovat dnesne udaje o malobchodnych trzbach za mesiac november v USA, ktore mozu urcit smerovanie trhu.

- Na EURUSD mame negativny vyhlad. Odporucame kratke pozicie pod 1.4760/80. Klucova podporna uroven je okolo 1.4670, po ktore nie je nic zaujimve az ku 1.4500 a nizsie.

11/12 Daily market commentary

Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advsisory, Saxo Bank

And indeed it is a good morning, it’s Friday, the sun is shining (even in Copenhagen, sort of) and the weekend beckons oh and of course there was a raft of fantastic Chinese data overnight.

If you’re anything like me you’ll be taking this with a bucket of salt (the Chinese data I mean), but nonetheless it has given the markets a little bit of a kick in the pants and the risk willingness of market participants has resumed if only a little bit. Asian bourses also lifted a little overnight in what was otherwise a relatively quiet session.

The Cable found somewhat of a bid on the back of Moody’s reassuring the market they weren’t going to downgrade the UK (at least not this week) while everything else pretty much languished in apathy with (for the tenth time this week) everyone slowly winding down to the end of the year.

On the day we are light on the European data front with only the UK PPI out, whereas the US session promises some more interest with Advanced retail sales, Import prices and of course the Uni. Of Michigan survey out. I don’t expect too much more topside in the equities today and think the S&P is likely to top out around the 1112 mark on the day. The DXY seems to have taken a pause on its corrective rally for the time being and this too will perhaps add some excitement to the mix, although don’t put your pillows away just yet.

With regard the crosses today and into early next week, from the top I see the following;

EURUSD: Looking tired and levels to watch are stops above the 1.4750 level with moves into 1.4830 not to be ruled out. Having said that though I firmly believe the risk lies in the downside on this pair and it would not surprise me to see it trade through 1.4620/30 and slowly take us down to the 1.4500’s. In short I am a cautious seller of rallies looking for at the very least more sideways consolidation rather than anything explosive.

GBPUSD: As you should all well know by now I am a Cable bear and nothing has changed. Rallies in this cross offer fresh shorting opportunities, but I warn ahead of time that squeezes higher are on the menu at the moment. I would expect 1.6350 and the associated stops to get taken out today and we could see a print into 1.6380 before the day is out, but again these are just more chances to sell or improve averages. 1.6430 and a close above in the very short term (intraday) to me marks a sit and wait to see where the upside settles.

USDCAD: The old chestnut holds true the trend is your friend and in this instance that trend just happens to be sideways range trading and/or consolidation. With that in mind look for 1.0430 on the downside to buy and the topside is 1.0700/50, but in intraday terms 1.0630/50 is just a good a place to sell as any other.

AUDNZD: I have taken back the bulk of my short in this cross and the trailing stop currently sits just above 1.2630, the downside still has 1.2530 and 1.2470 in sight. While we’re in this neck of the woods, it’s worth mentioning the AUDUSD, which I have been calling lower for some time, rallies are opportunities to fade the strength and moves into 0.9250/0.9300 allow fresh shorts to be established looking for 0.9050.

USDJPY: Remains in my view heavy and the price action of the last week is a dead giveaway. Rallies in this cross are capped into 90.30/80 and I am a firm seller at least for the next week or so. I’m hard pressed to be a buyer but would encourage punters to have a look at the range and make up their own minds.

EURGBP: This cross to me is interesting and in the very short term I feel that a break lower is quite likely. Stops below 0.9030 are primed to be taken out and today is likely to be the day for it, which then takes us into 0.9000 and a nice gap from there sees 0.8975/50 open up. It is here that I begin buying the cross or at the very least looking very closely at it. On the topside 0.9070 marks first resistance and thus far has been formidable, which to me says “hello stops” and the break of this level opens the door for a quick move to 0.9100/20.

That should wrap it up for today, to all a good weekend and as always safe helmet wearing.

10 prosince 2009

10/12 Ekonomický komentář

Připravil Luboš Spousta, Saxo Bank

ZLATO
Zlato dnes opět ztrácí, stále na něj působí posílení dolaru, které očekáváme i dnes. Proto i dnes máme negativní výhled na zlato, když naše stanovisko je prodávat při růstu k 1135 dolarům.

ROPA
Ropa klesla až k 70-ti dolarům. Cenu ropy dnes vedle vývoje dolaru budou ovlivňovat data z US trhů práce, především počáteční žádosti v nezaměstnanosti by mohly negativně překvapit proto je náš náhled na všechna riziková akiva včetně ropy negativní.

EURCZK
Koruna se aktuálně obchoduje za 25,75. Po včerejších datech o HDP a inflaci, které byly podle očekávávní, nedošlo k žádným výrazným posunům. Koruna tak momentálně stagnuje stejně jako ostatní měny v regionu.

10/12 Daily Comment

Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Slightly livelier night last night starting with the afternoon of the US session in which we saw (truthfully not entirely sure why) the greenback come in quite offered for all of 15 minutes and the majors had a small rally higher on the back of this. This was however, short-lived and subsequently the EUR and Cable settled back into familiar ranges.

More interest was held by the moves in the NZD and AUD which for their very own reasons had interesting nights. Starting with the RBNZ which despite leaving rates unchanged (as expected) did have a far more hawkish statement which made it fairly clear that they were going to be moving the tightening bias to sometime in Q2 of next year rather than the previously thought far end of the curve.

This immediately gave the Kiwi a bid tone and we shot strongly higher on the back of it, sending my AUDNZD trade into profit (more on that later). A few hours later we had the employment numbers out of Australia and these were indeed significantly better than expected adding over 100k of new full time jobs and sending the official rate to 5.7% (5.8% exp).

Clearly this also gave the AUD quite a bid tone, but at least in my eyes the cross really failed to make the most of it and right now I still feel that we are indeed in a range on the cross.

With regard my AUDNZD trade I remain short only a small portion of the original trade size and look for 1.2470/50 now for further profit taking.

On the day data wise we have the SNB with official rates, clearly no move but there is the risk that they discuss the notion of removing the extraordinary monetary policy they have been instigating and the CHF moves on the back it. However the immediate risk is that this move strengthens the currency and we see the USDCHF and EURCHF mainly take a short dive….

Otherwise BoE out today and after yesterdays PBR no surprise are left of the table really, they’re in the toilet and those that weren’t sure should be by now. If anything the risk is they raise the QE measures and the Cable sinks even further taking out intermediate support at 1.6170 and taking us lower into the 1.6050 zone.

No comment on the EURUSD today…. It still looks heavy and the market wants to see 1.4620 at least or at least close enough to it.

Good luck out there today…. It’s getting ugly as the festive season and all that goes with it starts to really gain momentum.

09 prosince 2009

9/12 Daily Comment

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Fairly quiet night again overnight, however worth noting is the underperformance in Asian equity markets and the slightly offered tone on US equity indices also. Not surprising in the scheme of things really as more bad news hit the wires over the last 18 hours all of which relating in most part to the down grading of sovereign credit ratings, notably Greece. Equally important in this recent bout of “risk off” were renewed fears on the health of Dubai and its mounting debt problems.

Subsequently we have seen the DXY push to fresh highs as the EUR and Cable were sold off heavily. The only real positive movers were the AUD and NZD dollars. Price action here is a little confusing given the second month in a row of worse than expected consumer sentiment in Australia, I do think though that all of this does need to be taken with a pinch of salt and as far as these currencies are concerned tonight marks crunch time for them as the RBNZ speaks and the Australians have their unemployment data out.

Elsewhere the USDJPY has given back all the gains it made post NFP last week and now continues to look heavy reaching in the interim for the 87.30 support and further out even lower into 86.50. Cable though has been the standout with the downside cleanout being helped along by renewed sovereign debt/rating fears as well as a multitude of stops from a retail market that has been stubbornly long the cross until now. I still think this thing pitches lower and while it may find some very short term support this will only serve as a small short term tech correction before we continue lower.

I target 1.5700 by the end of January. Today we have Darling speaking and giving the preliminary budget report with talk that he’ll be far more verbose today than usual and this could give more impetus for a sell on rallies in the Cable.

The EURUSD is bouncing at the time of print but similarly to the Cable I use this as an opportunity to sell the cross looking for a decisive move towards 1.4620 initial medium term support.

On the USDCAD the price action seems to be erratic at best but I hold off doing anything of real value until we exhaust this move higher into 1.0700/30 and then look to sell all the way back down to 1.0430/50.

All quiet on the western front otherwise at the moment and if nothing else liquidity issues as starting to play a role in the lead up to the year end.

www.saxobank.cz

9/10 Ekonomický komentář

Připravil Luboš Spousta, Saxo Bank

ZLATO
Na zlato stále působí vývoj dolaru, který posiloval a výprodeje investorů, kteří vybírají svoje zisky. Proto máme dnes výhled na zlato negativní, když bychom se mohli podívat až k hranici 1110 dolarů.

ROPA
Vedle vývoje dolaru na ropu působí to, že pod určitým tlakem jsou všechna riziková aktiva například akcie, ale i ropa, proto máme dnes na ropu výhled negativní, když bychom se mohli přiblížit k hranici 70,50.

EURCZK
Koruna se aktuálně obchoduje kolem 25,71, když včera byla pod tlakem jako všechny měny v regionu a dnešní data o HDP a inflaci dopadla podle očekávání.

www.saxobank.cz

08 prosince 2009

Daily comment

Slightly whippy night last night in large part thanks to comments from Bernanke. Although of interest is the fact that he didn’t actually say anything new, instead simply reiterating his low rates for an extended period comments that he’s been singing for the last 6 months or so. However in a market that is still doing its best to recover from the events on Friday it was enough to give the greenback an offered tone and squeeze out a market which is at best undecided on further direction. We saw the USD sold off across the board for about 20 minutes and the EURUSD squeezed about 80pips as a result. All in all the price action was short-lived and quickly settled back into the rhythm that we saw all day yesterday.

We had data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight that beat street expectations, but only by a small margin, which means that my short AUDNZD remains in no man’s land, but fingers crossed is on the verge of breaking lower.

On the day the only real data of note is the UK Industrial production data and the BOC decision. Neither of which is likely to prove to be market moving or earth shattering. Worth looking at though is the 1.6325 level in Cable which is broken opens the door to 1.6270/80 and lower, however this level has been well protected already this morning so…..

Kenneth Veksler

07 prosince 2009

Weekly Outlook

The world looks like a decisively different place this morning and I can assure you none of it has to do with the monster hangover I dealt with all day yesterday after the bank’s Christmas party on Saturday night. What I am referring to is the market’s reaction to the NFP data out of the US on Friday afternoon. Now I have never been one for conspiracy theories but something in my view is certainly rotten in the state of Denmark. I refer specifically to 3 independent factors that together make me think that there is more to this number than at first meets the eye, in chronological order they are:

1. A White House comment/statement made on the eve of the report purporting that the data will be staggeringly better than previous releases (bare in mind that no such statement had ever been made)
2. The data is released 30 seconds too early, taking the market a little by surprise.
3. And finally of course the number itself! How does that happen? How does such a major reversal of fortune occur, seemingly overnight?

Anyway you paint this thing there is clearly something wrong and of course the ensuing price action confirmed just this. Now I know I’ve spoken about the correlation matrix previously and the fact that risk and USD have been inversely correlated for nearly 18 months now, but we saw a massive decoupling of this relationship on Friday and to a smaller degree a continuation this morning. While I welcome this movement I am not entirely ready to ring in the changes as being permanent. If you look at the IMM positioning as of the close of last week you may just get a feel for why the market has moved the way it has, in fact simply cleaning out record short USD positions.

So the obvious question is where to from here, honestly I don’t really know. Year end is fast approaching and moves are going to become even more erratic as the obvious liquidity and holiday issues begin to play a bigger part. My conservative advice is to start saving your pennies for next year and limit yourself to fundamental moves should you be able to find them. For the record I favor the following for the week ahead:

AUDNZD: Still short, still waiting.
GBPUSD: Still short, counting my profit.
USDCAD: Waiting to sell on rallies into 1.07/0800
USDJPY: Seller into 90.30/80 with stops above 91.30.

On the data front it is central bank focus all the way with the likes of Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland and England all announcing official cash rates this week. Of these most interest and potential market movement will come on the back of the SNB and quite possibly Canada so as per the above comments look to sell the rally in the USDCAD.