Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY
- Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Obchodovanie prebiehalo pod taktovkou technologickeho sektora pred zverejenim hospodarskych vysledkov spolocnosti Intel Corp. Vysledky boli lepsie ako predpovede, ktore vsak boli upravene smerom dolu. Najvacsi vyrobca mikrocipov na svete (80% pocitacovych procesorov na vsetkych PC pochadza z dielne Intelu) profitoval z narastu predaja notebookov a ozivenia trhu so stolovymi pocitacmi.
Prijmy z predaja ako aj ciste prijmy vzrastli v Q4 2009. Intel by mal profitovat aj z novej technologie vyroby, ktora by mala umoznit vyrabat mikrocipy uspornejsie. Aj napriek pozitivnym prognozam o raste predajov PC spolocnost ocakava horsie vysledky za Q1.
- Vacsi narast zasob podnikatelskeho sektora ako ocakavanie pomohol prevazit spravy o necakanom prepade malobchodnych predajov v USA za mesiac december a naraste ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti.
- Akcie spolocnosti Oracle Corp. vzrastli potom co Morgan Stanley predpovedal narast cien akcii, spojeneho s akviziciou Sun Microsystems, ktora pomohla zvysit prijmy.
- Dnes bude zverejnovat vysledky JPMorgan Chase & Co. o 13:00 SEC. Odhad je 0.601 centov na akciu (EPS).
- Dnesok bude bohaty na zverejnenie dolezitych dat. CPI z Eurozony (11:00 SEC), USA (14:30 SEC) a udaje o priemyselnej produkcii a vyuziti kapacit z USA (15:15 SEC).
- Aj dnes zostavame nakloneni riziku a odporucame nakupy akcii po poklesoch.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5990 s cielom na 6018. Stop pod 5974.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5495 s cielom na 5520. Stop pod 5480.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1143 s cielom na 1149. Stop pod 1142.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Adida, Alcatel-Lucent, Capgemini, Daimler, Erste Bank, Fresenius Medica., Heineken, Hermes, KPN, Linde, Associated Briti., AstraZeneca, Autonomy Corp, Cadbury, Carnival, Compass Group, Diageo, Experian, Fresnillo, Glaxosmithkline.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Akzo Nobel, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Post, EDF, Groupe Bruxelles., LVMH, Snam Rete Gas, Sodexho, BAT, Burberry Group, G4S Plc, Intercontinental., Intertek Group, Kingfisher, Lnmin, Morrison Superma., Next, Resolution Plc.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj po prelomeni urovne 1135 pre znovuotestvanie urovne 1125 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1140.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj po prelomeni urovne 18.50 s cielom na 18.30 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.70.
ROPA- Ceny ropy sa posunuli nizsie potom co US malobchodne predaje neocakavane poklesli a narastli ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti, co znamena pomalsie ozivenie ekonomiky.
- Ropa sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme a trh si hlada novy smer.
- OPEC planuje zvysit tazbu na zaklade vyssej spotreby v Severnej Amerike kvoli studenemu pocasiu.
- V Commodity Futures Trading Commission sa objavil navrh na obmedzenie spekulacii na komoditnom trhu, ktory by obemedzil obchodovanie velkych bank a swapovych dilerov s ropou, zemnym plynom, vykorovacim olejom a benzinom.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch smerom ku 79.50, stale s cielom na 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.15.
EUR/USD -
ECB vcera nezmenila urokove sadzby a tak hlavna sadzba zostava na urovni 1%. Jean-Claude Trichet vyhlasil, ze Grecko nebude mat ziadne specialne zaobchadzanie a tym len potvrdil postoj ECB k pripadnej pomoci (bail-out) znamy uz od minuleho roka co posunulo EURUSD nizsie (co bolo vcelku zaujimave, pretoze nenasledoval vyraznejsi prepad).
- Pre EUR bude velmi dolezite sledovat dalsi vyvoj okolo pripadnej pomoci zo strany MMF. Akakolvek pomoc by pomohla EUR ale poprela by zmysel Pakt stability a rastu spojeny s moralnym hazardom ohladne zodpovednej rozpoctovej politiky.
- Horsie udaje o Empire State Sentiment Index (Index priemyselnej produkcie) by mohli vytvorit tlak na USD (15:30 SEC).
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne negativny. Narast smerom k urovni 1.4450-60 je limitovany. Doporucujeme tam predavat s cielom pri 1.4385 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.4515
OPCIE- EURGBP sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme s moznym rastom. Naskytava sa moznost vyhodne si kupit Call na EURGBP, strike 0.8950 s expiraciou 3. februara 2010 alebo predat Put na EUGBP, strike na 0.8750 s expiraciou 3. februara 2010.
15 ledna 2010
15/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY
- Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Obchodovanie prebiehalo pod taktovkou technologickeho sektora pred zverejenim hospodarskych vysledkov spolocnosti Intel Corp. Vysledky boli lepsie ako predpovede, ktore vsak boli upravene smerom dolu. Najvacsi vyrobca mikrocipov na svete (80% pocitacovych procesorov na vsetkych PC pochadza z dielne Intelu) profitoval z narastu predaja notebookov a ozivenia trhu so stolovymi pocitacmi.
Prijmy z predaja ako aj ciste prijmy vzrastli v Q4 2009. Intel by mal profitovat aj z novej technologie vyroby, ktora by mala umoznit vyrabat mikrocipy uspornejsie. Aj napriek pozitivnym prognozam o raste predajov PC spolocnost ocakava horsie vysledky za Q1.
- Vacsi narast zasob podnikatelskeho sektora ako ocakavanie pomohol prevazit spravy o necakanom prepade malobchodnych predajov v USA za mesiac december a naraste ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti.
- Akcie spolocnosti Oracle Corp. vzrastli potom co Morgan Stanley predpovedal narast cien akcii, spojeneho s akviziciou Sun Microsystems, ktora pomohla zvysit prijmy.
- Dnes bude zverejnovat vysledky JPMorgan Chase & Co. o 13:00 SEC. Odhad je 0.601 centov na akciu (EPS).
- Dnesok bude bohaty na zverejnenie dolezitych dat. CPI z Eurozony (11:00 SEC), USA (14:30 SEC) a udaje o priemyselnej produkcii a vyuziti kapacit z USA (15:15 SEC).
- Aj dnes zostavame nakloneni riziku a odporucame nakupy akcii po poklesoch.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5990 s cielom na 6018. Stop pod 5974.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5495 s cielom na 5520. Stop pod 5480.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1143 s cielom na 1149. Stop pod 1142.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Adida, Alcatel-Lucent, Capgemini, Daimler, Erste Bank, Fresenius Medica., Heineken, Hermes, KPN, Linde, Associated Briti., AstraZeneca, Autonomy Corp, Cadbury, Carnival, Compass Group, Diageo, Experian, Fresnillo, Glaxosmithkline.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Akzo Nobel, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Post, EDF, Groupe Bruxelles., LVMH, Snam Rete Gas, Sodexho, BAT, Burberry Group, G4S Plc, Intercontinental., Intertek Group, Kingfisher, Lnmin, Morrison Superma., Next, Resolution Plc.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj po prelomeni urovne 1135 pre znovuotestvanie urovne 1125 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1140.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj po prelomeni urovne 18.50 s cielom na 18.30 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.70.
ROPA- Ceny ropy sa posunuli nizsie potom co US malobchodne predaje neocakavane poklesli a narastli ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti, co znamena pomalsie ozivenie ekonomiky.
- Ropa sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme a trh si hlada novy smer.
- OPEC planuje zvysit tazbu na zaklade vyssej spotreby v Severnej Amerike kvoli studenemu pocasiu.
- V Commodity Futures Trading Commission sa objavil navrh na obmedzenie spekulacii na komoditnom trhu, ktory by obemedzil obchodovanie velkych bank a swapovych dilerov s ropou, zemnym plynom, vykorovacim olejom a benzinom.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch smerom ku 79.50, stale s cielom na 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.15.
EUR/USD -
ECB vcera nezmenila urokove sadzby a tak hlavna sadzba zostava na urovni 1%. Jean-Claude Trichet vyhlasil, ze Grecko nebude mat ziadne specialne zaobchadzanie a tym len potvrdil postoj ECB k pripadnej pomoci (bail-out) znamy uz od minuleho roka co posunulo EURUSD nizsie (co bolo vcelku zaujimave, pretoze nenasledoval vyraznejsi prepad).
- Pre EUR bude velmi dolezite sledovat dalsi vyvoj okolo pripadnej pomoci zo strany MMF. Akakolvek pomoc by pomohla EUR ale poprela by zmysel Pakt stability a rastu spojeny s moralnym hazardom ohladne zodpovednej rozpoctovej politiky.
- Horsie udaje o Empire State Sentiment Index (Index priemyselnej produkcie) by mohli vytvorit tlak na USD (15:30 SEC).
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne negativny. Narast smerom k urovni 1.4450-60 je limitovany. Doporucujeme tam predavat s cielom pri 1.4385 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.4515
OPCIE- EURGBP sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme s moznym rastom. Naskytava sa moznost vyhodne si kupit Call na EURGBP, strike 0.8950 s expiraciou 3. februara 2010 alebo predat Put na EUGBP, strike na 0.8750 s expiraciou 3. februara 2010.
AKCIOVE TRHY
- Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Obchodovanie prebiehalo pod taktovkou technologickeho sektora pred zverejenim hospodarskych vysledkov spolocnosti Intel Corp. Vysledky boli lepsie ako predpovede, ktore vsak boli upravene smerom dolu. Najvacsi vyrobca mikrocipov na svete (80% pocitacovych procesorov na vsetkych PC pochadza z dielne Intelu) profitoval z narastu predaja notebookov a ozivenia trhu so stolovymi pocitacmi.
Prijmy z predaja ako aj ciste prijmy vzrastli v Q4 2009. Intel by mal profitovat aj z novej technologie vyroby, ktora by mala umoznit vyrabat mikrocipy uspornejsie. Aj napriek pozitivnym prognozam o raste predajov PC spolocnost ocakava horsie vysledky za Q1.
- Vacsi narast zasob podnikatelskeho sektora ako ocakavanie pomohol prevazit spravy o necakanom prepade malobchodnych predajov v USA za mesiac december a naraste ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti.
- Akcie spolocnosti Oracle Corp. vzrastli potom co Morgan Stanley predpovedal narast cien akcii, spojeneho s akviziciou Sun Microsystems, ktora pomohla zvysit prijmy.
- Dnes bude zverejnovat vysledky JPMorgan Chase & Co. o 13:00 SEC. Odhad je 0.601 centov na akciu (EPS).
- Dnesok bude bohaty na zverejnenie dolezitych dat. CPI z Eurozony (11:00 SEC), USA (14:30 SEC) a udaje o priemyselnej produkcii a vyuziti kapacit z USA (15:15 SEC).
- Aj dnes zostavame nakloneni riziku a odporucame nakupy akcii po poklesoch.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5990 s cielom na 6018. Stop pod 5974.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5495 s cielom na 5520. Stop pod 5480.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1143 s cielom na 1149. Stop pod 1142.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Adida, Alcatel-Lucent, Capgemini, Daimler, Erste Bank, Fresenius Medica., Heineken, Hermes, KPN, Linde, Associated Briti., AstraZeneca, Autonomy Corp, Cadbury, Carnival, Compass Group, Diageo, Experian, Fresnillo, Glaxosmithkline.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Akzo Nobel, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Post, EDF, Groupe Bruxelles., LVMH, Snam Rete Gas, Sodexho, BAT, Burberry Group, G4S Plc, Intercontinental., Intertek Group, Kingfisher, Lnmin, Morrison Superma., Next, Resolution Plc.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj po prelomeni urovne 1135 pre znovuotestvanie urovne 1125 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1140.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj po prelomeni urovne 18.50 s cielom na 18.30 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.70.
ROPA- Ceny ropy sa posunuli nizsie potom co US malobchodne predaje neocakavane poklesli a narastli ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti, co znamena pomalsie ozivenie ekonomiky.
- Ropa sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme a trh si hlada novy smer.
- OPEC planuje zvysit tazbu na zaklade vyssej spotreby v Severnej Amerike kvoli studenemu pocasiu.
- V Commodity Futures Trading Commission sa objavil navrh na obmedzenie spekulacii na komoditnom trhu, ktory by obemedzil obchodovanie velkych bank a swapovych dilerov s ropou, zemnym plynom, vykorovacim olejom a benzinom.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch smerom ku 79.50, stale s cielom na 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.15.
EUR/USD -
ECB vcera nezmenila urokove sadzby a tak hlavna sadzba zostava na urovni 1%. Jean-Claude Trichet vyhlasil, ze Grecko nebude mat ziadne specialne zaobchadzanie a tym len potvrdil postoj ECB k pripadnej pomoci (bail-out) znamy uz od minuleho roka co posunulo EURUSD nizsie (co bolo vcelku zaujimave, pretoze nenasledoval vyraznejsi prepad).
- Pre EUR bude velmi dolezite sledovat dalsi vyvoj okolo pripadnej pomoci zo strany MMF. Akakolvek pomoc by pomohla EUR ale poprela by zmysel Pakt stability a rastu spojeny s moralnym hazardom ohladne zodpovednej rozpoctovej politiky.
- Horsie udaje o Empire State Sentiment Index (Index priemyselnej produkcie) by mohli vytvorit tlak na USD (15:30 SEC).
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne negativny. Narast smerom k urovni 1.4450-60 je limitovany. Doporucujeme tam predavat s cielom pri 1.4385 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.4515
OPCIE- EURGBP sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme s moznym rastom. Naskytava sa moznost vyhodne si kupit Call na EURGBP, strike 0.8950 s expiraciou 3. februara 2010 alebo predat Put na EUGBP, strike na 0.8750 s expiraciou 3. februara 2010.
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
Apologies for the lack of transmission yesterday, but the forces of nature all gathered together to conspire against me and create the morning from hell. But never mind I’m back this morning and with me I bring interesting developments in the market. Not least of which was last night’s move in the EURUSD which was triggered by unfounded rumors of Merkel’s resignation over her proposed tax changes. Unfounded is the word but in a market which is jittery at best some very weak EUR longs were easily cleaned out with stops sitting under 1.4450 getting done and pushing the cross to an overnight low of 1.4410. This morning we walk in to see more stops taken out under 1.4395, printing a low so far around the 1.4380 level, where as has been the case for quite some time, we saw an Asian CB sitting firmly on the bid keeping this thing well propped up. How long this continues and whether or not the same Asian CB is prepared to get the EUR in lower remains to be seen. For the record I remain bearish the cross and with each passing day of price action this week feel that 1.4570 has for now become the new 1.5170. The downside is primed for a firm test of 1.4250 early next week and I do think that we will be 1.3900 at the latest a week or so from today.
Also worth a mention (if only for the irony) is the Japanese manufacturing data we had overnight which was so incredibly bad I had to read it twice to confirm what I was seeing. The irony here of course is the fact that we have seen the JPY strengthen overnight and the USDJPY pushing intermediate support around the 90.50/60 area. Dips down to 90.30 will provide good speculative plays today but with a raft of US data out later this afternoon caution is recommended.
Speaking of data, today we have first up CPI and trade balance data from the Euro zone, which truthfully could go either way, but my pick would be a disappointment and we see this as the catalyst for another sharp move lower in the EURUSD. We also today have plenty on the slate from the US, including CPI, Industrial Production and Uni. Of Michigan survey. Today is not really the day to be getting caught up in USD trading and would advise taking a seat on the sidelines to see how the day and week settle. Also of note is the earnings report of both JP Morgan out this afternoon which could prove just as big a trump card for current risk sentiment.
With regard the majors there is plenty afoot with a lot of the crosses sitting either on or just near enough important breakout levels but interestingly none are too keen to push the button just yet.
Looking at them in no particular order:
AUDUSD: I sent out a strategy piece yesterday recommending selling this cross and clearly my view has not changed overnight. First entry was filled at 0.9290 and to me this thing is still heavy, running out of puff and eagerly awaiting the Feb 2nd RBA meeting for final confirmation of direction. Rallies into 0.9330/60 deserve to be faded and whether you regard this as contrarian or just plain stupid, price action at present is on my side.
GBPUSD: Seemingly firmly inhaling steroids at present, but as we have seen several times over the course of the last 12 months squeezes like the one we’ve been experiencing over the last few days are not out of the ordinary and in this case are more about moves in the EURGBP than the Cable direct and certainly not linked to fundamentals out of the UK. To me 1.6380 is now the important pivot point and I am comfortable selling into it looking for retracements back into 1.6100. Important levels (at least intraday) are now the 1.6280 and 1.6250 handles, breaks and closes below these on hourly or even 4 hourly basis confirm retracements. For those unsure, I am still bearish!
EURUSD: Earlier this week I thought we would have a final blowout above 1.4570 perhaps into 1.4630 at a stretch, clearly though not the case and as noted above for the very short term the 1.4570 level now becomes the 1.5170 zone we had toward the end of the third quarter last year. I do see this thing lower and feel that within the next 10 days we will be seeing a test and subsequent break of 1.4250 taking us into 1.3900 territory. Rallies are recommended to be sold while keeping one eye firmly fixed to the DXY (dollar index).
CHFJPY: Not one that I have mentioned much, but has proven this week to be a great trade with minimal exposure to volatility. I was a seller into 91.00 and above and managed to see target levels on the downside achieved in the 88.50 area. Interestingly that level (88.50) marks the lower end of the current range for this cross and I would feel equally comfortable in the coming week starting to scale in to strategic shorts anywhere above the 90.20/30 area all the way into 91.10/20. Further out it is not unfathomable to being see a test into 87.50 but this will take some time, for now play a safe range and avoid the whippiness of a new year market.
USDCAD: This cross is determined to revisit October lows around the 1.0210 area and it is there that I start to scale into fresh longs keeping firmly in mind that until we see a more structural change to the overall landscape 1.0410/30 will keep a lid on the upside. The BOC meeting next week is not going to yield a rate hike, but rhetoric from Carney could see the Loonie take a little hit in its recent confidence bringing us higher in the USDCAD.
EURGBP: This cross is pushing lower and has been for some time now mainly on the back of consistent M&A flows linked to Cadbury’s. Just like the AUD I fail to get taken with the rest of the crowd and look for 0.8800 to hold the downside producing a firm triple bottom with a lot of wood to chop below there for any further losses. The upside is the key here and a clearance on a daily close above 0.8880 opens the door for a larger move back to 0.9030, where in my mid we find the tops end of the recent declining range.
USDJPY: Still firmly in a range, but my bias is to the downside. It wouldn’t surprise me (and in part I’m almost betting on it)to see 90.30 tested and held and slowly from there we move higher back towards 92.70 over the course of the coming week. The first hurdle and confirmation for this move would a clearance and close above 91.30. Dips can be cautiously bought, but I don emphasize Cautiously!
EURJPY: Look for 130.60 to hold initially after what has been a solid move lower hitting a rising upward trend line. Some more downside is probable but likely to be very shallow and dips could provide good buying around the 129.00 area looking for moves back into 132.30. But again as above with the USDJPY be careful as the volatility on this pair is often very ugly.
As always on a Friday I say don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt!
Best regards,
Ken Veksler
Apologies for the lack of transmission yesterday, but the forces of nature all gathered together to conspire against me and create the morning from hell. But never mind I’m back this morning and with me I bring interesting developments in the market. Not least of which was last night’s move in the EURUSD which was triggered by unfounded rumors of Merkel’s resignation over her proposed tax changes. Unfounded is the word but in a market which is jittery at best some very weak EUR longs were easily cleaned out with stops sitting under 1.4450 getting done and pushing the cross to an overnight low of 1.4410. This morning we walk in to see more stops taken out under 1.4395, printing a low so far around the 1.4380 level, where as has been the case for quite some time, we saw an Asian CB sitting firmly on the bid keeping this thing well propped up. How long this continues and whether or not the same Asian CB is prepared to get the EUR in lower remains to be seen. For the record I remain bearish the cross and with each passing day of price action this week feel that 1.4570 has for now become the new 1.5170. The downside is primed for a firm test of 1.4250 early next week and I do think that we will be 1.3900 at the latest a week or so from today.
Also worth a mention (if only for the irony) is the Japanese manufacturing data we had overnight which was so incredibly bad I had to read it twice to confirm what I was seeing. The irony here of course is the fact that we have seen the JPY strengthen overnight and the USDJPY pushing intermediate support around the 90.50/60 area. Dips down to 90.30 will provide good speculative plays today but with a raft of US data out later this afternoon caution is recommended.
Speaking of data, today we have first up CPI and trade balance data from the Euro zone, which truthfully could go either way, but my pick would be a disappointment and we see this as the catalyst for another sharp move lower in the EURUSD. We also today have plenty on the slate from the US, including CPI, Industrial Production and Uni. Of Michigan survey. Today is not really the day to be getting caught up in USD trading and would advise taking a seat on the sidelines to see how the day and week settle. Also of note is the earnings report of both JP Morgan out this afternoon which could prove just as big a trump card for current risk sentiment.
With regard the majors there is plenty afoot with a lot of the crosses sitting either on or just near enough important breakout levels but interestingly none are too keen to push the button just yet.
Looking at them in no particular order:
AUDUSD: I sent out a strategy piece yesterday recommending selling this cross and clearly my view has not changed overnight. First entry was filled at 0.9290 and to me this thing is still heavy, running out of puff and eagerly awaiting the Feb 2nd RBA meeting for final confirmation of direction. Rallies into 0.9330/60 deserve to be faded and whether you regard this as contrarian or just plain stupid, price action at present is on my side.
GBPUSD: Seemingly firmly inhaling steroids at present, but as we have seen several times over the course of the last 12 months squeezes like the one we’ve been experiencing over the last few days are not out of the ordinary and in this case are more about moves in the EURGBP than the Cable direct and certainly not linked to fundamentals out of the UK. To me 1.6380 is now the important pivot point and I am comfortable selling into it looking for retracements back into 1.6100. Important levels (at least intraday) are now the 1.6280 and 1.6250 handles, breaks and closes below these on hourly or even 4 hourly basis confirm retracements. For those unsure, I am still bearish!
EURUSD: Earlier this week I thought we would have a final blowout above 1.4570 perhaps into 1.4630 at a stretch, clearly though not the case and as noted above for the very short term the 1.4570 level now becomes the 1.5170 zone we had toward the end of the third quarter last year. I do see this thing lower and feel that within the next 10 days we will be seeing a test and subsequent break of 1.4250 taking us into 1.3900 territory. Rallies are recommended to be sold while keeping one eye firmly fixed to the DXY (dollar index).
CHFJPY: Not one that I have mentioned much, but has proven this week to be a great trade with minimal exposure to volatility. I was a seller into 91.00 and above and managed to see target levels on the downside achieved in the 88.50 area. Interestingly that level (88.50) marks the lower end of the current range for this cross and I would feel equally comfortable in the coming week starting to scale in to strategic shorts anywhere above the 90.20/30 area all the way into 91.10/20. Further out it is not unfathomable to being see a test into 87.50 but this will take some time, for now play a safe range and avoid the whippiness of a new year market.
USDCAD: This cross is determined to revisit October lows around the 1.0210 area and it is there that I start to scale into fresh longs keeping firmly in mind that until we see a more structural change to the overall landscape 1.0410/30 will keep a lid on the upside. The BOC meeting next week is not going to yield a rate hike, but rhetoric from Carney could see the Loonie take a little hit in its recent confidence bringing us higher in the USDCAD.
EURGBP: This cross is pushing lower and has been for some time now mainly on the back of consistent M&A flows linked to Cadbury’s. Just like the AUD I fail to get taken with the rest of the crowd and look for 0.8800 to hold the downside producing a firm triple bottom with a lot of wood to chop below there for any further losses. The upside is the key here and a clearance on a daily close above 0.8880 opens the door for a larger move back to 0.9030, where in my mid we find the tops end of the recent declining range.
USDJPY: Still firmly in a range, but my bias is to the downside. It wouldn’t surprise me (and in part I’m almost betting on it)to see 90.30 tested and held and slowly from there we move higher back towards 92.70 over the course of the coming week. The first hurdle and confirmation for this move would a clearance and close above 91.30. Dips can be cautiously bought, but I don emphasize Cautiously!
EURJPY: Look for 130.60 to hold initially after what has been a solid move lower hitting a rising upward trend line. Some more downside is probable but likely to be very shallow and dips could provide good buying around the 129.00 area looking for moves back into 132.30. But again as above with the USDJPY be careful as the volatility on this pair is often very ugly.
As always on a Friday I say don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt!
Best regards,
Ken Veksler
14 ledna 2010
14/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Pod narast za podpisali optimizmus spojeny so sezonou zverejnovania hospodarskych vysledkov a zlepsovanim vyhladov pre jednotlive spolocnosti. Dlhopisy a ropa sa posunuli nizsie.
- Citanie tzv. Beige Book potvrdilo, ze US ekonomika sa zotavuje, ked sa v 10 z 12 oblasti FED zlepsila ekonomicka situacia. Narast akcii bol vsak limitovany obavami, ze FED pripravuje ekonomiku na zvysovanie sadzieb, ktore by chcel urobit skor ako nezamestnanost zacne klesat. To je podmienka, aby udrzal inflaciu na rozumnej urovni.
- Akcie spolocnosti Merck & Co. vzrastli potom co analytici doporucili nakup akcii.
- Spolocnost Google Inc. sa prepadla nasledne vyhlaseniu, ze sa moze stiahnut z cinskeho trhu potom co sa stala obetou utoku hackerov (so zazemim v Cine) na emaily aktivistov za ludske prava. Utok na Google je velmi citliva otazka spojena s ochranou dusevneho vlastnictva, co je v pripade technologickych spolocnosti rovne kradezi technologie a strate konkurencnej vyhody. Postup cinskych uradov vyvolava otazniky pre dalsie nielen technologicke spolocnosti o pripadnych dalsich investiciach v Cine, s ktorou su spojene neustale problemy s ochranou dusevneho vlastnictva.
- Spolocnosti Baidu Inc. (najvacsi cinsky server na vyhladavanie informacii) zhodnotil o 14% na zaklade informacii spojenych so spolocnostou Google Inc.
- US bankove tituly sa posunuli vyssie, potom co ich sefovia obhajovali postupy svojich spolocnosti pred krizou a upriamili pozornost na vladu, s tym ze kriza bolo zapricinena dlhodobymi nizkymi urokovymi sadzbami a politikou US vlady, ktora podporovala a subvencovala vlastnictvo nehnutelnosti.
- Dnesok bude zverejnenych par dolezitych dat. Rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb o 13:45 SEC a zasoby podnikatelskeho sektora za mesiac november v USA o 14:30 SEC kde ocakavame zlepsenie o 0.6%.
- Ocakavame, ze dnesny den bude nakloneny riziku, hlavne po zverejneni poklesu nezamestnanosti v Australii. Obchodovanie s akciami bude ovplyvnene aj ocakavaniami hospodarskych vysledkov Intel Corp., ktore budu zverejnene po ukonceni obchodovania v USA.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 6000 s cielom na 6065. Stop pod 5978.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5500 s cielom na 5550. Stop pod 5481.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1145 s cielom na 1155. Stop pod 1142.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Accor, Akzo Nobel, carefour, deutsche Boerse, Essilor, France Telecom, Inditex, Pernod-Picard, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Admiral Group Plc., Associated Briti., BSkyB, BT Group, Bunzl, Serco Group.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Banco Popular Es., BMW, Deutsche Bank, E.ON, EDF, Fortis, Fortum, GDF Suez, KPN, Amec, Anglo American, BP, Capita Group, Compass Group, Exprian, Inmarsat, International Po., Intertek Group, Intertek group, London Stock Exc.
ZLATO-
Zlato rastlo pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania na zaklade spekulacii, ze FED ponecha urokove sazdby dlhsie obdobie na nizkych urovniach co pomohlo posunut USD nizsie.
- Je mozne, ze by sa zlato dostalo na uroven 1200 USD/uncu v priebehu prveho polroka ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Dopyt po zlate zo strany Indie poklesol za minuly rok o 14% na uroven 343 metrickych ton. Bolo to zapricinene vysokymi cenami, ktore znizili dopyt zo strany zlatnikov a domacnosti.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj po prelomeni urovne 1140 alebo aj narast ku 1147 pred znovuotestovanim urovne 1133USD/uncu.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj na urovni 18.65 pre posunom na 18.45 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.85.
ROPA-
Ceny ropy sa posunuli vyrazne nizsie po zverejneni vyssich zasob ropy v USA: 3699K (zverejnene) vs. 1500K (ocakavane).
- Zasoby vzrastli viac ako dvojnasobne. Bolo to zapricinene spekulaciami rafineri ohladne danovych povinnosti pred koncom roka, kedy znizovali svoje zasoby a po novom roku ich zacali zvysovat.
- Ceny ropy boli negativne ovplyvnene aj doznievajucimi spravami o zvysovani povinnych bankovych rezerv v Cine.
- Na pokles cien ropy mali vplyv aj udaje o stagnacii GE ekonomiky.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Ocakavame, ze v pripade zotrvania po urovnou 80.10 sa ropa posunie nizsie. Odporucame tu predaje pri 79.93 s cielom na 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.15.
EUR/USD -
Najdolezitejsia udalost dnesneho dna bude rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb. Neocakavame zmenu. Takisto ECB si este nemoze dovolit zvysit sadzby. Jedine zaujimave informacie, moze byt komentara Jean-Claude Trichet-a o situacii v Grecku.
- Pre USD budu zaujimave udaje o malobchodnych predajoch a ziadostiach o podporu v nezamestnanosti. Oba udaje, aj ak by boli prekvapive, nesposobia zmenu trendu EURUSD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Zda sa, ze uroven 1.4580 zostava zachovana. Doporucujeme pockat a po poklese pod 1.4500 nakupovat. Taktiez doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni urovne 1.4595 s cielom na 1.4650 EURUSD.
EUR/CZK -
Nalada voci riziku sa zlepsila, ale zatial sme nevideli tento efekt mat vplyv na EURCZK. Vidime posun smerom dolu, ale chybaju nam vyraznejsie faktory, ktore by to podporili.
- CZK by sa malo darit najhorsie z celeho regionu, hlavne v porovnani s PLNCZK (vyssie urokove sadzby v PL).
- Vyhlad na 6 mesiacov: EURCZK 26-27.00; USDCZK: 18.20-50.
- Rezistencia je na 26.29/30 a podporna uroven na 26.06.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Pod narast za podpisali optimizmus spojeny so sezonou zverejnovania hospodarskych vysledkov a zlepsovanim vyhladov pre jednotlive spolocnosti. Dlhopisy a ropa sa posunuli nizsie.
- Citanie tzv. Beige Book potvrdilo, ze US ekonomika sa zotavuje, ked sa v 10 z 12 oblasti FED zlepsila ekonomicka situacia. Narast akcii bol vsak limitovany obavami, ze FED pripravuje ekonomiku na zvysovanie sadzieb, ktore by chcel urobit skor ako nezamestnanost zacne klesat. To je podmienka, aby udrzal inflaciu na rozumnej urovni.
- Akcie spolocnosti Merck & Co. vzrastli potom co analytici doporucili nakup akcii.
- Spolocnost Google Inc. sa prepadla nasledne vyhlaseniu, ze sa moze stiahnut z cinskeho trhu potom co sa stala obetou utoku hackerov (so zazemim v Cine) na emaily aktivistov za ludske prava. Utok na Google je velmi citliva otazka spojena s ochranou dusevneho vlastnictva, co je v pripade technologickych spolocnosti rovne kradezi technologie a strate konkurencnej vyhody. Postup cinskych uradov vyvolava otazniky pre dalsie nielen technologicke spolocnosti o pripadnych dalsich investiciach v Cine, s ktorou su spojene neustale problemy s ochranou dusevneho vlastnictva.
- Spolocnosti Baidu Inc. (najvacsi cinsky server na vyhladavanie informacii) zhodnotil o 14% na zaklade informacii spojenych so spolocnostou Google Inc.
- US bankove tituly sa posunuli vyssie, potom co ich sefovia obhajovali postupy svojich spolocnosti pred krizou a upriamili pozornost na vladu, s tym ze kriza bolo zapricinena dlhodobymi nizkymi urokovymi sadzbami a politikou US vlady, ktora podporovala a subvencovala vlastnictvo nehnutelnosti.
- Dnesok bude zverejnenych par dolezitych dat. Rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb o 13:45 SEC a zasoby podnikatelskeho sektora za mesiac november v USA o 14:30 SEC kde ocakavame zlepsenie o 0.6%.
- Ocakavame, ze dnesny den bude nakloneny riziku, hlavne po zverejneni poklesu nezamestnanosti v Australii. Obchodovanie s akciami bude ovplyvnene aj ocakavaniami hospodarskych vysledkov Intel Corp., ktore budu zverejnene po ukonceni obchodovania v USA.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 6000 s cielom na 6065. Stop pod 5978.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5500 s cielom na 5550. Stop pod 5481.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1145 s cielom na 1155. Stop pod 1142.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Accor, Akzo Nobel, carefour, deutsche Boerse, Essilor, France Telecom, Inditex, Pernod-Picard, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Admiral Group Plc., Associated Briti., BSkyB, BT Group, Bunzl, Serco Group.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Banco Popular Es., BMW, Deutsche Bank, E.ON, EDF, Fortis, Fortum, GDF Suez, KPN, Amec, Anglo American, BP, Capita Group, Compass Group, Exprian, Inmarsat, International Po., Intertek Group, Intertek group, London Stock Exc.
ZLATO-
Zlato rastlo pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania na zaklade spekulacii, ze FED ponecha urokove sazdby dlhsie obdobie na nizkych urovniach co pomohlo posunut USD nizsie.
- Je mozne, ze by sa zlato dostalo na uroven 1200 USD/uncu v priebehu prveho polroka ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Dopyt po zlate zo strany Indie poklesol za minuly rok o 14% na uroven 343 metrickych ton. Bolo to zapricinene vysokymi cenami, ktore znizili dopyt zo strany zlatnikov a domacnosti.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj po prelomeni urovne 1140 alebo aj narast ku 1147 pred znovuotestovanim urovne 1133USD/uncu.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj na urovni 18.65 pre posunom na 18.45 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.85.
ROPA-
Ceny ropy sa posunuli vyrazne nizsie po zverejneni vyssich zasob ropy v USA: 3699K (zverejnene) vs. 1500K (ocakavane).
- Zasoby vzrastli viac ako dvojnasobne. Bolo to zapricinene spekulaciami rafineri ohladne danovych povinnosti pred koncom roka, kedy znizovali svoje zasoby a po novom roku ich zacali zvysovat.
- Ceny ropy boli negativne ovplyvnene aj doznievajucimi spravami o zvysovani povinnych bankovych rezerv v Cine.
- Na pokles cien ropy mali vplyv aj udaje o stagnacii GE ekonomiky.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Ocakavame, ze v pripade zotrvania po urovnou 80.10 sa ropa posunie nizsie. Odporucame tu predaje pri 79.93 s cielom na 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.15.
EUR/USD -
Najdolezitejsia udalost dnesneho dna bude rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb. Neocakavame zmenu. Takisto ECB si este nemoze dovolit zvysit sadzby. Jedine zaujimave informacie, moze byt komentara Jean-Claude Trichet-a o situacii v Grecku.
- Pre USD budu zaujimave udaje o malobchodnych predajoch a ziadostiach o podporu v nezamestnanosti. Oba udaje, aj ak by boli prekvapive, nesposobia zmenu trendu EURUSD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Zda sa, ze uroven 1.4580 zostava zachovana. Doporucujeme pockat a po poklese pod 1.4500 nakupovat. Taktiez doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni urovne 1.4595 s cielom na 1.4650 EURUSD.
EUR/CZK -
Nalada voci riziku sa zlepsila, ale zatial sme nevideli tento efekt mat vplyv na EURCZK. Vidime posun smerom dolu, ale chybaju nam vyraznejsie faktory, ktore by to podporili.
- CZK by sa malo darit najhorsie z celeho regionu, hlavne v porovnani s PLNCZK (vyssie urokove sadzby v PL).
- Vyhlad na 6 mesiacov: EURCZK 26-27.00; USDCZK: 18.20-50.
- Rezistencia je na 26.29/30 a podporna uroven na 26.06.
14/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Pod narast za podpisali optimizmus spojeny so sezonou zverejnovania hospodarskych vysledkov a zlepsovanim vyhladov pre jednotlive spolocnosti. Dlhopisy a ropa sa posunuli nizsie.
- Citanie tzv. Beige Book potvrdilo, ze US ekonomika sa zotavuje, ked sa v 10 z 12 oblasti FED zlepsila ekonomicka situacia. Narast akcii bol vsak limitovany obavami, ze FED pripravuje ekonomiku na zvysovanie sadzieb, ktore by chcel urobit skor ako nezamestnanost zacne klesat. To je podmienka, aby udrzal inflaciu na rozumnej urovni.
- Akcie spolocnosti Merck & Co. vzrastli potom co analytici doporucili nakup akcii.
- Spolocnost Google Inc. sa prepadla nasledne vyhlaseniu, ze sa moze stiahnut z cinskeho trhu potom co sa stala obetou utoku hackerov (so zazemim v Cine) na emaily aktivistov za ludske prava. Utok na Google je velmi citliva otazka spojena s ochranou dusevneho vlastnictva, co je v pripade technologickych spolocnosti rovne kradezi technologie a strate konkurencnej vyhody. Postup cinskych uradov vyvolava otazniky pre dalsie nielen technologicke spolocnosti o pripadnych dalsich investiciach v Cine, s ktorou su spojene neustale problemy s ochranou dusevneho vlastnictva.
- Spolocnosti Baidu Inc. (najvacsi cinsky server na vyhladavanie informacii) zhodnotil o 14% na zaklade informacii spojenych so spolocnostou Google Inc.
- US bankove tituly sa posunuli vyssie, potom co ich sefovia obhajovali postupy svojich spolocnosti pred krizou a upriamili pozornost na vladu, s tym ze kriza bolo zapricinena dlhodobymi nizkymi urokovymi sadzbami a politikou US vlady, ktora podporovala a subvencovala vlastnictvo nehnutelnosti.
- Dnesok bude zverejnenych par dolezitych dat. Rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb o 13:45 SEC a zasoby podnikatelskeho sektora za mesiac november v USA o 14:30 SEC kde ocakavame zlepsenie o 0.6%.
- Ocakavame, ze dnesny den bude nakloneny riziku, hlavne po zverejneni poklesu nezamestnanosti v Australii. Obchodovanie s akciami bude ovplyvnene aj ocakavaniami hospodarskych vysledkov Intel Corp., ktore budu zverejnene po ukonceni obchodovania v USA.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 6000 s cielom na 6065. Stop pod 5978.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5500 s cielom na 5550. Stop pod 5481.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1145 s cielom na 1155. Stop pod 1142.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Accor, Akzo Nobel, carefour, deutsche Boerse, Essilor, France Telecom, Inditex, Pernod-Picard, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Admiral Group Plc., Associated Briti., BSkyB, BT Group, Bunzl, Serco Group.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Banco Popular Es., BMW, Deutsche Bank, E.ON, EDF, Fortis, Fortum, GDF Suez, KPN, Amec, Anglo American, BP, Capita Group, Compass Group, Exprian, Inmarsat, International Po., Intertek Group, Intertek group, London Stock Exc.
ZLATO-
Zlato rastlo pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania na zaklade spekulacii, ze FED ponecha urokove sazdby dlhsie obdobie na nizkych urovniach co pomohlo posunut USD nizsie.
- Je mozne, ze by sa zlato dostalo na uroven 1200 USD/uncu v priebehu prveho polroka ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Dopyt po zlate zo strany Indie poklesol za minuly rok o 14% na uroven 343 metrickych ton. Bolo to zapricinene vysokymi cenami, ktore znizili dopyt zo strany zlatnikov a domacnosti.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj po prelomeni urovne 1140 alebo aj narast ku 1147 pred znovuotestovanim urovne 1133USD/uncu.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj na urovni 18.65 pre posunom na 18.45 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.85.
ROPA-
Ceny ropy sa posunuli vyrazne nizsie po zverejneni vyssich zasob ropy v USA: 3699K (zverejnene) vs. 1500K (ocakavane).
- Zasoby vzrastli viac ako dvojnasobne. Bolo to zapricinene spekulaciami rafineri ohladne danovych povinnosti pred koncom roka, kedy znizovali svoje zasoby a po novom roku ich zacali zvysovat.
- Ceny ropy boli negativne ovplyvnene aj doznievajucimi spravami o zvysovani povinnych bankovych rezerv v Cine.
- Na pokles cien ropy mali vplyv aj udaje o stagnacii GE ekonomiky.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Ocakavame, ze v pripade zotrvania po urovnou 80.10 sa ropa posunie nizsie. Odporucame tu predaje pri 79.93 s cielom na 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.15.
EUR/USD -
Najdolezitejsia udalost dnesneho dna bude rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb. Neocakavame zmenu. Takisto ECB si este nemoze dovolit zvysit sadzby. Jedine zaujimave informacie, moze byt komentara Jean-Claude Trichet-a o situacii v Grecku.
- Pre USD budu zaujimave udaje o malobchodnych predajoch a ziadostiach o podporu v nezamestnanosti. Oba udaje, aj ak by boli prekvapive, nesposobia zmenu trendu EURUSD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Zda sa, ze uroven 1.4580 zostava zachovana. Doporucujeme pockat a po poklese pod 1.4500 nakupovat. Taktiez doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni urovne 1.4595 s cielom na 1.4650 EURUSD.
EUR/CZK -
Nalada voci riziku sa zlepsila, ale zatial sme nevideli tento efekt mat vplyv na EURCZK. Vidime posun smerom dolu, ale chybaju nam vyraznejsie faktory, ktore by to podporili.
- CZK by sa malo darit najhorsie z celeho regionu, hlavne v porovnani s PLNCZK (vyssie urokove sadzby v PL).
- Vyhlad na 6 mesiacov: EURCZK 26-27.00; USDCZK: 18.20-50.
- Rezistencia je na 26.29/30 a podporna uroven na 26.06.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v ciernych cislach. Pod narast za podpisali optimizmus spojeny so sezonou zverejnovania hospodarskych vysledkov a zlepsovanim vyhladov pre jednotlive spolocnosti. Dlhopisy a ropa sa posunuli nizsie.
- Citanie tzv. Beige Book potvrdilo, ze US ekonomika sa zotavuje, ked sa v 10 z 12 oblasti FED zlepsila ekonomicka situacia. Narast akcii bol vsak limitovany obavami, ze FED pripravuje ekonomiku na zvysovanie sadzieb, ktore by chcel urobit skor ako nezamestnanost zacne klesat. To je podmienka, aby udrzal inflaciu na rozumnej urovni.
- Akcie spolocnosti Merck & Co. vzrastli potom co analytici doporucili nakup akcii.
- Spolocnost Google Inc. sa prepadla nasledne vyhlaseniu, ze sa moze stiahnut z cinskeho trhu potom co sa stala obetou utoku hackerov (so zazemim v Cine) na emaily aktivistov za ludske prava. Utok na Google je velmi citliva otazka spojena s ochranou dusevneho vlastnictva, co je v pripade technologickych spolocnosti rovne kradezi technologie a strate konkurencnej vyhody. Postup cinskych uradov vyvolava otazniky pre dalsie nielen technologicke spolocnosti o pripadnych dalsich investiciach v Cine, s ktorou su spojene neustale problemy s ochranou dusevneho vlastnictva.
- Spolocnosti Baidu Inc. (najvacsi cinsky server na vyhladavanie informacii) zhodnotil o 14% na zaklade informacii spojenych so spolocnostou Google Inc.
- US bankove tituly sa posunuli vyssie, potom co ich sefovia obhajovali postupy svojich spolocnosti pred krizou a upriamili pozornost na vladu, s tym ze kriza bolo zapricinena dlhodobymi nizkymi urokovymi sadzbami a politikou US vlady, ktora podporovala a subvencovala vlastnictvo nehnutelnosti.
- Dnesok bude zverejnenych par dolezitych dat. Rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb o 13:45 SEC a zasoby podnikatelskeho sektora za mesiac november v USA o 14:30 SEC kde ocakavame zlepsenie o 0.6%.
- Ocakavame, ze dnesny den bude nakloneny riziku, hlavne po zverejneni poklesu nezamestnanosti v Australii. Obchodovanie s akciami bude ovplyvnene aj ocakavaniami hospodarskych vysledkov Intel Corp., ktore budu zverejnene po ukonceni obchodovania v USA.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 6000 s cielom na 6065. Stop pod 5978.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5500 s cielom na 5550. Stop pod 5481.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1145 s cielom na 1155. Stop pod 1142.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Accor, Akzo Nobel, carefour, deutsche Boerse, Essilor, France Telecom, Inditex, Pernod-Picard, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Admiral Group Plc., Associated Briti., BSkyB, BT Group, Bunzl, Serco Group.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Banco Popular Es., BMW, Deutsche Bank, E.ON, EDF, Fortis, Fortum, GDF Suez, KPN, Amec, Anglo American, BP, Capita Group, Compass Group, Exprian, Inmarsat, International Po., Intertek Group, Intertek group, London Stock Exc.
ZLATO-
Zlato rastlo pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania na zaklade spekulacii, ze FED ponecha urokove sazdby dlhsie obdobie na nizkych urovniach co pomohlo posunut USD nizsie.
- Je mozne, ze by sa zlato dostalo na uroven 1200 USD/uncu v priebehu prveho polroka ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Dopyt po zlate zo strany Indie poklesol za minuly rok o 14% na uroven 343 metrickych ton. Bolo to zapricinene vysokymi cenami, ktore znizili dopyt zo strany zlatnikov a domacnosti.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj po prelomeni urovne 1140 alebo aj narast ku 1147 pred znovuotestovanim urovne 1133USD/uncu.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj na urovni 18.65 pre posunom na 18.45 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.85.
ROPA-
Ceny ropy sa posunuli vyrazne nizsie po zverejneni vyssich zasob ropy v USA: 3699K (zverejnene) vs. 1500K (ocakavane).
- Zasoby vzrastli viac ako dvojnasobne. Bolo to zapricinene spekulaciami rafineri ohladne danovych povinnosti pred koncom roka, kedy znizovali svoje zasoby a po novom roku ich zacali zvysovat.
- Ceny ropy boli negativne ovplyvnene aj doznievajucimi spravami o zvysovani povinnych bankovych rezerv v Cine.
- Na pokles cien ropy mali vplyv aj udaje o stagnacii GE ekonomiky.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Ocakavame, ze v pripade zotrvania po urovnou 80.10 sa ropa posunie nizsie. Odporucame tu predaje pri 79.93 s cielom na 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.15.
EUR/USD -
Najdolezitejsia udalost dnesneho dna bude rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb. Neocakavame zmenu. Takisto ECB si este nemoze dovolit zvysit sadzby. Jedine zaujimave informacie, moze byt komentara Jean-Claude Trichet-a o situacii v Grecku.
- Pre USD budu zaujimave udaje o malobchodnych predajoch a ziadostiach o podporu v nezamestnanosti. Oba udaje, aj ak by boli prekvapive, nesposobia zmenu trendu EURUSD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Zda sa, ze uroven 1.4580 zostava zachovana. Doporucujeme pockat a po poklese pod 1.4500 nakupovat. Taktiez doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni urovne 1.4595 s cielom na 1.4650 EURUSD.
EUR/CZK -
Nalada voci riziku sa zlepsila, ale zatial sme nevideli tento efekt mat vplyv na EURCZK. Vidime posun smerom dolu, ale chybaju nam vyraznejsie faktory, ktore by to podporili.
- CZK by sa malo darit najhorsie z celeho regionu, hlavne v porovnani s PLNCZK (vyssie urokove sadzby v PL).
- Vyhlad na 6 mesiacov: EURCZK 26-27.00; USDCZK: 18.20-50.
- Rezistencia je na 26.29/30 a podporna uroven na 26.06.
13 ledna 2010
13/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v cervenych cislach. Hlavnymi pricinami negativneho postoja investorov boli horsie vysledky spolocnosti Alcoa Inc. a rozhodnutie Ciny o zvyseni povinnych rezerv pre banky o 0.5%. Tymto sposobom chce cinska vlada spomalit rychlo rastucu ekonomiku. Tento krok by mal pomoct odcerpat z cinskej ekonomiky 300 mld. Yuanov (43.9 mld. USD) a stlmit uverovu bublinu. Zvysenie povinnych rezerv by mohol byt indikator, ze Cinska centralna banka zvysi urokove sadzby skor ako sa ocakava.
- Americky obchodny deficit sa prehlbil. Import a export vzrastol, co je naznak zvysovania zahranicneho obchodu a ozivenia svetovej ekonomiky.
- 11% prepad akcii spolocnosti Alcoa bol sposobeny nielen horsimi hospodarskymi vysledkami, ale najma prehnanymi ocakavaniami investorov.
- US bankove tituly nemali dobry den, potom co nemenovany predstavitel US administrativy povedal, ze vlada ziska na bankovych poplatkoch 120 mld. USD na ciastocne pokrytie strat spojenych so zachranou bank (program TARP).
- Dnesok nie je bohaty na ekonomicke data, za zmienku vsak stoji zverejnenie tzv. Beige Book o 20:00 SEC.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5900 s cielom na 5960. Stop pod 5878.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy okolo urovne 5468 s cielom na 5508. Stop pod 5440.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1134 s cielom na 1143. Stop pod 1130.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Banco Popular Es., Heineken, KPN, Nokia, Snam Rete Gas, Assocaited Briti., Aviva, BG Group, Home Retail, Land Securities, Lloyds Banking G., Morrison Superma., Pearson, Standard Life, Tesco.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): ACS, Allianz, Alstom, Carrefour, Daimler, DSM, E.ON, EADS, ENI, Alliance Trust P., Amec, Autonomy Corp., BHP Biliton, BskyB, Cable & Wireless, Cairn Energy, Cobham, Fresnillo, G4S Plc.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy smerom ku 1125 pre znovuotestovanie urovni 1136-1139 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1120.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 18.20 pre znovuotestovanie urovne 18.40 USD/uncu. Stop pod 18.00.
ROPA
- Komodity boli negativne ovplyvnene rozhodnutim Ciny o zvyseni povinych bankovych rezerv. Toto rozhodnutie znamena spomalenie ekonomickeho rastu a mensi dopyt po komoditach.
- Vyznamny vplyv na cenu ropy maju aj rastuce zasoby ropy v USA. Analytici ocakavaju dalsi narast. Dnes budu zverejnene zasoby ropy v USA o 16:30 SEC.
- Ceny ropy su taktiez negtivne ovplyvnene aj teplejsim pocasim v USA a poklesom cien kukurice (z kukurice sa vyraba etanol, ktory sa pridava do paliv).
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 80.25 pre dalsi prepad ku 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.80.
EUR/USD -
Dnesne zverejnenie Beige Book zo strany FED bude plne zmiesany sprav (pozitivnych aj negativnych). Iste je, ze US ekonomika sa zotavuje. Co trh zaujima, je fakt ci toto zotavenie bude dostatocny argument pre FED aby zvysil urokove sadzby.
- Trh sa pripravuje na zajtrajsie rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb. Neocakavame zmenu.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1.4460 alebo po prelomeni urovne 1.4500 EURUSD. Smerujeme ku 1.4550, pripadne ku 1.4620. Stop pod 1.4400.
EUR/CZK
- Vcerajsie obchodovanie s CZK bolo ovplyvnene rozhodnuti Cinskej centralnej banky. Rezistencna uroven vsak zostala nedotknuta. CZK je nadalej pod vplyvom nalady na EURUSD trhu a akcii.
- Vyhlad na 6 mesiacov: EURCZK 26-27.00; USDCZK: 18.20-50.
- Rezistencia je na 26.38/40 a podporna uroven na 26.06/12
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo v cervenych cislach. Hlavnymi pricinami negativneho postoja investorov boli horsie vysledky spolocnosti Alcoa Inc. a rozhodnutie Ciny o zvyseni povinnych rezerv pre banky o 0.5%. Tymto sposobom chce cinska vlada spomalit rychlo rastucu ekonomiku. Tento krok by mal pomoct odcerpat z cinskej ekonomiky 300 mld. Yuanov (43.9 mld. USD) a stlmit uverovu bublinu. Zvysenie povinnych rezerv by mohol byt indikator, ze Cinska centralna banka zvysi urokove sadzby skor ako sa ocakava.
- Americky obchodny deficit sa prehlbil. Import a export vzrastol, co je naznak zvysovania zahranicneho obchodu a ozivenia svetovej ekonomiky.
- 11% prepad akcii spolocnosti Alcoa bol sposobeny nielen horsimi hospodarskymi vysledkami, ale najma prehnanymi ocakavaniami investorov.
- US bankove tituly nemali dobry den, potom co nemenovany predstavitel US administrativy povedal, ze vlada ziska na bankovych poplatkoch 120 mld. USD na ciastocne pokrytie strat spojenych so zachranou bank (program TARP).
- Dnesok nie je bohaty na ekonomicke data, za zmienku vsak stoji zverejnenie tzv. Beige Book o 20:00 SEC.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5900 s cielom na 5960. Stop pod 5878.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy okolo urovne 5468 s cielom na 5508. Stop pod 5440.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1134 s cielom na 1143. Stop pod 1130.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Banco Popular Es., Heineken, KPN, Nokia, Snam Rete Gas, Assocaited Briti., Aviva, BG Group, Home Retail, Land Securities, Lloyds Banking G., Morrison Superma., Pearson, Standard Life, Tesco.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): ACS, Allianz, Alstom, Carrefour, Daimler, DSM, E.ON, EADS, ENI, Alliance Trust P., Amec, Autonomy Corp., BHP Biliton, BskyB, Cable & Wireless, Cairn Energy, Cobham, Fresnillo, G4S Plc.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy smerom ku 1125 pre znovuotestovanie urovni 1136-1139 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1120.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 18.20 pre znovuotestovanie urovne 18.40 USD/uncu. Stop pod 18.00.
ROPA
- Komodity boli negativne ovplyvnene rozhodnutim Ciny o zvyseni povinych bankovych rezerv. Toto rozhodnutie znamena spomalenie ekonomickeho rastu a mensi dopyt po komoditach.
- Vyznamny vplyv na cenu ropy maju aj rastuce zasoby ropy v USA. Analytici ocakavaju dalsi narast. Dnes budu zverejnene zasoby ropy v USA o 16:30 SEC.
- Ceny ropy su taktiez negtivne ovplyvnene aj teplejsim pocasim v USA a poklesom cien kukurice (z kukurice sa vyraba etanol, ktory sa pridava do paliv).
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 80.25 pre dalsi prepad ku 77.45 USD/barel. Stop nad 80.80.
EUR/USD -
Dnesne zverejnenie Beige Book zo strany FED bude plne zmiesany sprav (pozitivnych aj negativnych). Iste je, ze US ekonomika sa zotavuje. Co trh zaujima, je fakt ci toto zotavenie bude dostatocny argument pre FED aby zvysil urokove sadzby.
- Trh sa pripravuje na zajtrajsie rozhodnutie ECB o vyske urokovych sadzieb. Neocakavame zmenu.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1.4460 alebo po prelomeni urovne 1.4500 EURUSD. Smerujeme ku 1.4550, pripadne ku 1.4620. Stop pod 1.4400.
EUR/CZK
- Vcerajsie obchodovanie s CZK bolo ovplyvnene rozhodnuti Cinskej centralnej banky. Rezistencna uroven vsak zostala nedotknuta. CZK je nadalej pod vplyvom nalady na EURUSD trhu a akcii.
- Vyhlad na 6 mesiacov: EURCZK 26-27.00; USDCZK: 18.20-50.
- Rezistencia je na 26.38/40 a podporna uroven na 26.06/12
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
Looks like the Chinese have done it again! Having raised reserve/liquidity requirements for their domestic lending institutions overnight they have also managed to wipe a significant chunk of risk appetite off the table taking with it the recent JPY weakness we have encountered. So what does that mean? Well in short it means that Japanese Minister Kan is not to be paid any attention to as the domestic currency gathers strength for starters. What it also means though is that the market in my view is becoming increasingly edgy about which way to be placing their bets and the fact that we are indeed in my mind headed towards a correction in many markets. Clearly this goes hand in hand with what I perceive as a stronger USD in the new year, but as always the timing is key…
Other overnight developments (not unlike the night before) came from various sound bites and speech excerpts delivered by Fed and BOE officials. On the Fed side we had everyone that’s not Ben Bernanke essentially telling the world that they’re looking at exit strategies already and not necessarily waiting for the unemployment rate to improve before doing so… More credence to the USD story in the new year (am I talking my own book here?), but with this I suggest caution because after nearly 2 ½ years as head of the Fed the market still isn’t entirely sure how to interpret what he has to say let alone reading too much into what his underlings mutter about. On the BoE side we had Sentance (and yes that is his name) telling us that the BoE is nearing a point at which it will have to stop bond purchases and reflect on how the stimulus is flowing into the economy. In short that signals (according to him) that even if the MPC decided not to increase the asset purchase program, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they would withdraw it entirely. Take from that what you will but in short it has given the Cable a temporary bid tone as the EURGBP gets sold off on perpetual rumors of LHS fixes and M&A flows through the market.
And finally for those of you that have read the latest Reuters headlines, the EC has made further mention that things could be even worse in Greece as (surprise surprise) their books don’t seem to be as transparent or clean as one might have hoped for. Goodbye Greece and thanks for all the Souvlaki!
On the majors today in light of a fairly data free day today,
The EURSD continues to find good support around the 1.4450 area and for those looking for spec trades on the day buying into that level could prove a decent day trade but stops need to be tight and join the multitude no doubt already sitting below 1.4440/35, the upside for the time being is capped at 1.4530.
The Cable is currently the thorn in my side and as mentioned above seems to be fairly decently bid with a floor under it sitting at around the 1.6150 area. This thing is determined to have a look above 1.6235 on the day and from there I would suggest fading the rally. Those getting involved here need to keep a watchful eye on what the EURGBP does, as my gut tells me we go lower before we run into good bids around the 0.8800 area.
USDJPY remains a sell on rallies and is the trade I’m probably most happiest with at the moment, having touched 90.70/80 support overnight anything running into 92.00 should be sold on the day.
USDCAD also looks well bid at the moment but will have some serious trouble overcoming the 1.0420/30 resistance currently sitting in front of it, so a buy on dips is suggested but the upside is going to be limited so be mindful of your risk/reward when entering the position.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Looks like the Chinese have done it again! Having raised reserve/liquidity requirements for their domestic lending institutions overnight they have also managed to wipe a significant chunk of risk appetite off the table taking with it the recent JPY weakness we have encountered. So what does that mean? Well in short it means that Japanese Minister Kan is not to be paid any attention to as the domestic currency gathers strength for starters. What it also means though is that the market in my view is becoming increasingly edgy about which way to be placing their bets and the fact that we are indeed in my mind headed towards a correction in many markets. Clearly this goes hand in hand with what I perceive as a stronger USD in the new year, but as always the timing is key…
Other overnight developments (not unlike the night before) came from various sound bites and speech excerpts delivered by Fed and BOE officials. On the Fed side we had everyone that’s not Ben Bernanke essentially telling the world that they’re looking at exit strategies already and not necessarily waiting for the unemployment rate to improve before doing so… More credence to the USD story in the new year (am I talking my own book here?), but with this I suggest caution because after nearly 2 ½ years as head of the Fed the market still isn’t entirely sure how to interpret what he has to say let alone reading too much into what his underlings mutter about. On the BoE side we had Sentance (and yes that is his name) telling us that the BoE is nearing a point at which it will have to stop bond purchases and reflect on how the stimulus is flowing into the economy. In short that signals (according to him) that even if the MPC decided not to increase the asset purchase program, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they would withdraw it entirely. Take from that what you will but in short it has given the Cable a temporary bid tone as the EURGBP gets sold off on perpetual rumors of LHS fixes and M&A flows through the market.
And finally for those of you that have read the latest Reuters headlines, the EC has made further mention that things could be even worse in Greece as (surprise surprise) their books don’t seem to be as transparent or clean as one might have hoped for. Goodbye Greece and thanks for all the Souvlaki!
On the majors today in light of a fairly data free day today,
The EURSD continues to find good support around the 1.4450 area and for those looking for spec trades on the day buying into that level could prove a decent day trade but stops need to be tight and join the multitude no doubt already sitting below 1.4440/35, the upside for the time being is capped at 1.4530.
The Cable is currently the thorn in my side and as mentioned above seems to be fairly decently bid with a floor under it sitting at around the 1.6150 area. This thing is determined to have a look above 1.6235 on the day and from there I would suggest fading the rally. Those getting involved here need to keep a watchful eye on what the EURGBP does, as my gut tells me we go lower before we run into good bids around the 0.8800 area.
USDJPY remains a sell on rallies and is the trade I’m probably most happiest with at the moment, having touched 90.70/80 support overnight anything running into 92.00 should be sold on the day.
USDCAD also looks well bid at the moment but will have some serious trouble overcoming the 1.0420/30 resistance currently sitting in front of it, so a buy on dips is suggested but the upside is going to be limited so be mindful of your risk/reward when entering the position.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
Looks like the Chinese have done it again! Having raised reserve/liquidity requirements for their domestic lending institutions overnight they have also managed to wipe a significant chunk of risk appetite off the table taking with it the recent JPY weakness we have encountered. So what does that mean? Well in short it means that Japanese Minister Kan is not to be paid any attention to as the domestic currency gathers strength for starters. What it also means though is that the market in my view is becoming increasingly edgy about which way to be placing their bets and the fact that we are indeed in my mind headed towards a correction in many markets. Clearly this goes hand in hand with what I perceive as a stronger USD in the new year, but as always the timing is key…
Other overnight developments (not unlike the night before) came from various sound bites and speech excerpts delivered by Fed and BOE officials. On the Fed side we had everyone that’s not Ben Bernanke essentially telling the world that they’re looking at exit strategies already and not necessarily waiting for the unemployment rate to improve before doing so… More credence to the USD story in the new year (am I talking my own book here?), but with this I suggest caution because after nearly 2 ½ years as head of the Fed the market still isn’t entirely sure how to interpret what he has to say let alone reading too much into what his underlings mutter about. On the BoE side we had Sentance (and yes that is his name) telling us that the BoE is nearing a point at which it will have to stop bond purchases and reflect on how the stimulus is flowing into the economy. In short that signals (according to him) that even if the MPC decided not to increase the asset purchase program, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they would withdraw it entirely. Take from that what you will but in short it has given the Cable a temporary bid tone as the EURGBP gets sold off on perpetual rumors of LHS fixes and M&A flows through the market.
And finally for those of you that have read the latest Reuters headlines, the EC has made further mention that things could be even worse in Greece as (surprise surprise) their books don’t seem to be as transparent or clean as one might have hoped for. Goodbye Greece and thanks for all the Souvlaki!
On the majors today in light of a fairly data free day today,
The EURSD continues to find good support around the 1.4450 area and for those looking for spec trades on the day buying into that level could prove a decent day trade but stops need to be tight and join the multitude no doubt already sitting below 1.4440/35, the upside for the time being is capped at 1.4530.
The Cable is currently the thorn in my side and as mentioned above seems to be fairly decently bid with a floor under it sitting at around the 1.6150 area. This thing is determined to have a look above 1.6235 on the day and from there I would suggest fading the rally. Those getting involved here need to keep a watchful eye on what the EURGBP does, as my gut tells me we go lower before we run into good bids around the 0.8800 area.
USDJPY remains a sell on rallies and is the trade I’m probably most happiest with at the moment, having touched 90.70/80 support overnight anything running into 92.00 should be sold on the day.
USDCAD also looks well bid at the moment but will have some serious trouble overcoming the 1.0420/30 resistance currently sitting in front of it, so a buy on dips is suggested but the upside is going to be limited so be mindful of your risk/reward when entering the position.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Looks like the Chinese have done it again! Having raised reserve/liquidity requirements for their domestic lending institutions overnight they have also managed to wipe a significant chunk of risk appetite off the table taking with it the recent JPY weakness we have encountered. So what does that mean? Well in short it means that Japanese Minister Kan is not to be paid any attention to as the domestic currency gathers strength for starters. What it also means though is that the market in my view is becoming increasingly edgy about which way to be placing their bets and the fact that we are indeed in my mind headed towards a correction in many markets. Clearly this goes hand in hand with what I perceive as a stronger USD in the new year, but as always the timing is key…
Other overnight developments (not unlike the night before) came from various sound bites and speech excerpts delivered by Fed and BOE officials. On the Fed side we had everyone that’s not Ben Bernanke essentially telling the world that they’re looking at exit strategies already and not necessarily waiting for the unemployment rate to improve before doing so… More credence to the USD story in the new year (am I talking my own book here?), but with this I suggest caution because after nearly 2 ½ years as head of the Fed the market still isn’t entirely sure how to interpret what he has to say let alone reading too much into what his underlings mutter about. On the BoE side we had Sentance (and yes that is his name) telling us that the BoE is nearing a point at which it will have to stop bond purchases and reflect on how the stimulus is flowing into the economy. In short that signals (according to him) that even if the MPC decided not to increase the asset purchase program, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they would withdraw it entirely. Take from that what you will but in short it has given the Cable a temporary bid tone as the EURGBP gets sold off on perpetual rumors of LHS fixes and M&A flows through the market.
And finally for those of you that have read the latest Reuters headlines, the EC has made further mention that things could be even worse in Greece as (surprise surprise) their books don’t seem to be as transparent or clean as one might have hoped for. Goodbye Greece and thanks for all the Souvlaki!
On the majors today in light of a fairly data free day today,
The EURSD continues to find good support around the 1.4450 area and for those looking for spec trades on the day buying into that level could prove a decent day trade but stops need to be tight and join the multitude no doubt already sitting below 1.4440/35, the upside for the time being is capped at 1.4530.
The Cable is currently the thorn in my side and as mentioned above seems to be fairly decently bid with a floor under it sitting at around the 1.6150 area. This thing is determined to have a look above 1.6235 on the day and from there I would suggest fading the rally. Those getting involved here need to keep a watchful eye on what the EURGBP does, as my gut tells me we go lower before we run into good bids around the 0.8800 area.
USDJPY remains a sell on rallies and is the trade I’m probably most happiest with at the moment, having touched 90.70/80 support overnight anything running into 92.00 should be sold on the day.
USDCAD also looks well bid at the moment but will have some serious trouble overcoming the 1.0420/30 resistance currently sitting in front of it, so a buy on dips is suggested but the upside is going to be limited so be mindful of your risk/reward when entering the position.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
12 ledna 2010
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
Interesting price action overnight on the back of what was predominantly a night led by comments and disclosures rather than any substantive flow action. Leading the verbal charge was a representative of the CIC (the Chinese Investment Corporation¬), essentially the Chinese sovereign investment fund who not so subtly indicated that the recent weakness encountered by the USD was all but over and that the only way from here was up for the greenback, this was coupled with remarks regarding the further purchase of gold and the unlikely chances of this happening at current “overpriced” levels. Clearly this gave the big dollar a boost and we saw the majors retrace yesterday’s gains on the back of it. Interestingly although not surprisingly no more than 40 minutes later there was another official statement from the CIC saying that the previous comments were of a personal nature and did not represent the official lien in the sand…. However, damage done and besides a slap on the wrist for the original comments the market interpreted this correctly as far as I’m concerned.
Further afield we had the BOC rep. Flaherty commenting that the recent strength in the CAD has done enough of its accord to ensure that the BOC doesn’t increase their rates at the next meeting held on the 19th (next week). He further implied that any more strength to the domestic currency will hamper the revival of an economy affected by the global crisis. I concur, but strangely almost every tier1 bank out there is instead calling the USDCAD lower and chooses to express this through the CAD crosses, preferring EURCAD and AUDCAD shorts. I just don’t see it myself and still buy the USDCAD on dips and consolidation towards 1.0250.
Data out of Australia pointed to a massive 5% decrease in new home loan numbers and while a lot of this can be explained away this is still a pretty ordinary result and if anything cements my current bearish view of the AUDUSD. Conversely the NZD showed good resolve on the back of strong capacity utilization data and this lends further support to my overall argument for a lower AUDNZD cross. Returning to the AUD briefly I just want to note the sensitivity of the currency at current levels to any piece of negative data, no matter how convincing, what does this mean? Fade the rally and look for significant retracements of recent strength. 0.9330/50 is the first zone in which to start initiating fresh shorts and this could extend to the recent highs of 0.9380. If concerned about the Chinese resource bubble and its impact on the commodity crosses, look to buy 1mth out to 3mth AUD downside in the form of low delta puts with strikes below 0.9000.
On the EURUSD, well basically it’s range bound with 1.4570 proving to be magnetic on the topside for the time being. I remain bearish but do concede that we’re likely to test higher before we do anything substantial on the downside. On the day I am a seller into 1.4530 and look to take these back around 1.4430/50.
The Cable is not in a dissimilar boat and while range bound and somewhat bid at the moment I am a firm seller into 1.6130/50 on a squeeze ahead of today’s trade balance data, looking for 1.6050/30 for limit orders. More Cadbury’s M&A chatter doing the rounds adding to the overall hype, but as Flavor Flave once so eloquently put it “Don’t believe the hype!”.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Interesting price action overnight on the back of what was predominantly a night led by comments and disclosures rather than any substantive flow action. Leading the verbal charge was a representative of the CIC (the Chinese Investment Corporation¬), essentially the Chinese sovereign investment fund who not so subtly indicated that the recent weakness encountered by the USD was all but over and that the only way from here was up for the greenback, this was coupled with remarks regarding the further purchase of gold and the unlikely chances of this happening at current “overpriced” levels. Clearly this gave the big dollar a boost and we saw the majors retrace yesterday’s gains on the back of it. Interestingly although not surprisingly no more than 40 minutes later there was another official statement from the CIC saying that the previous comments were of a personal nature and did not represent the official lien in the sand…. However, damage done and besides a slap on the wrist for the original comments the market interpreted this correctly as far as I’m concerned.
Further afield we had the BOC rep. Flaherty commenting that the recent strength in the CAD has done enough of its accord to ensure that the BOC doesn’t increase their rates at the next meeting held on the 19th (next week). He further implied that any more strength to the domestic currency will hamper the revival of an economy affected by the global crisis. I concur, but strangely almost every tier1 bank out there is instead calling the USDCAD lower and chooses to express this through the CAD crosses, preferring EURCAD and AUDCAD shorts. I just don’t see it myself and still buy the USDCAD on dips and consolidation towards 1.0250.
Data out of Australia pointed to a massive 5% decrease in new home loan numbers and while a lot of this can be explained away this is still a pretty ordinary result and if anything cements my current bearish view of the AUDUSD. Conversely the NZD showed good resolve on the back of strong capacity utilization data and this lends further support to my overall argument for a lower AUDNZD cross. Returning to the AUD briefly I just want to note the sensitivity of the currency at current levels to any piece of negative data, no matter how convincing, what does this mean? Fade the rally and look for significant retracements of recent strength. 0.9330/50 is the first zone in which to start initiating fresh shorts and this could extend to the recent highs of 0.9380. If concerned about the Chinese resource bubble and its impact on the commodity crosses, look to buy 1mth out to 3mth AUD downside in the form of low delta puts with strikes below 0.9000.
On the EURUSD, well basically it’s range bound with 1.4570 proving to be magnetic on the topside for the time being. I remain bearish but do concede that we’re likely to test higher before we do anything substantial on the downside. On the day I am a seller into 1.4530 and look to take these back around 1.4430/50.
The Cable is not in a dissimilar boat and while range bound and somewhat bid at the moment I am a firm seller into 1.6130/50 on a squeeze ahead of today’s trade balance data, looking for 1.6050/30 for limit orders. More Cadbury’s M&A chatter doing the rounds adding to the overall hype, but as Flavor Flave once so eloquently put it “Don’t believe the hype!”.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Market Commentary
AKCIOVE TRHY
- Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo zmiesane. Dow Jones a S&P 500 v ciernych, zatial co Nasdaq a Russell 2000 v cervenych cislach. US akcie profitovali z ocavania lepsich vysledkov spolocnosti Alcoa (co bolo nasledne sklamanie) a vyrazneho narastu importu a exportu v Cine (co potvrdzuje postupne ekonomicke ozivenie vo svete). Rast zahranicneho obchodu nebol taky vyrazny so zapadnym svetom ale skor s rozvijajucimi s trhmi. Celkovo rast za minuly rok: export +17.7% a import +55.9%.
- Spolocnost Alcoa ohlasila nizsi zisk za Q4, ktory predstavoval 1 cent/akciu (predpoved 6 centov/akciu). Vysledky boli negativne poznacene rastom cien energii ako aj rastom vstupnych nakladov aj napriek vyssim trzbam.
- Velmi dobre sa darilo spolocnosti Caterpillar Inc. po zverejneni dat z Ciny.
- Akcie spolocnosti Citigroup Inc. rastli potom co Saudsky miliardar princ Alwaleed bin Talal, ktory je najvacsim individualnym akcionarom Citigroup vyhlasil, ze banka ma uz najhorsie za sebou a pozitivne vidi buducnost banky. Rast bol utlmeny komentarom analytikov, ze Citigroup zverejni stratu vzhladom na vyssie naklady spojene so splatenim vladnej pomoci.
- Devalvacia venezuelskej meny bolivar o polovicu mala negativny vplyv na spolocnosti v sektore spotrebitelskeho tovaru: Procter&Gamble Co., Colgate-Palmolive Co. ako aj Avon Products Inc., Revlon Inc...atd. Spolocnosti budu mat v nasledujucom obdobi nizsie trzby.
- Technologicke spolocnosti tiez zaznamenali prepad co bolo prirodzene, kedze sa ich akcie za posledne obdobie znacne vzrastli a za cely minuly rok sa posunuli vyssie o 60%.
- Dnesne obchodovanie sa bude sustredit na udaje o zahranicnom obchode v USA, ktore budu zverejnene o 14:30 SEC.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 6022 s cielom na 6076. Stop pod 5984.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni hranice 5544 s cielom na 5575. Stop pod 5530.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1144 s cielom na 1152. Stop pod 1140.
- Dnesne doporucenie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Alstom, Axa, Banca Monte Dei., Fiat, groupe Bruxelles., Hermes, Inditex, ING Groep, LVMH, Michelin, Alliance Trust P., AstraZeneca, BP, British Land, BskyB, Bunzl, Cairn Energy, Capita Group, Carnival, Intercontinental.
- Dnesne doporucenie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Allianz, BMW, Danone, Deutsche Post, Essilor, France Telecom, K+S, Pernod-Ricard, Portugal Telecom, Admiral Group Plc, Anglo American, Diageo, Eurasian Natural., Liberty Internat., Prudential, SABMiller, Schroders, Standard Life.
ZLATO
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Momentalne vidime rast nad uroven nad 1160 obmedzeny. Doporucujeme nakupy okolo urovne 1165 s cielom hore okolo 1185 USD/uncu.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni 18.82 s cielom na 18.98 USD/uncu. Stop loss na 18.74.
ROPA
- Ropa sa prepadla na zaklade spekulacii o buducotyzdnovej zmene pocasia a vyraznejsom otepleni v Severnej Amerike, co by znamenalo znizenie dopytu po vykurovacich olejoch.
- Udaje z Ciny na druhej strane mali pozitivny vplyv na ceny ropy. Pri importe ropy do Ciny si treba uvedomit, ze rast je konstatny a podporeny rastom spotreby.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy okolo urovne 81.80 s cielom na 82.35 USD/barel. Stop na 81.52.
EUR/USD
- EUR sa nepodarilo udrazat zisky pocas azijskeho obchodovania a posunulo sa pod 1.4500. Nepomohla tomu ani hrozba inflacie a obrovskych deficitov v USA, kedze podobne problemy su aj v Europe.
- Urcite sklamanie okolo nezvysovania urokovych sadzieb v USA by mohlo pomoct EURUSD na vyssie urovne. Dolezita rezistencia je na 1.4570.
- Pripadne negativne udaje o novembrovom zahranicnom obchode USA by nemali mat negativny vplyv na USD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Vhodnou strategiou na dnes by mohli by takticke nakupy okolo urovne 1.4450 s miernymi ziskami. Celkovo vsak vidime obchdovanie v pasme pre stvrtkovym zasadanim ECB.
EUR/CZK
- EURCZK - vidime mierny posun na nizsie urovne, co je zapricinene celkovym vyvojom EURUSD. Prelomenie podpornej urovne 26.06/12 je malo pravdepododne.
- Vyhlad na 6 mesiacov: EURCZK 26-27.00; USDCZK: 18.20-50.
- Rezistencia je na 26.38/40 a podporna uroven na 26.06/12
- Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo zmiesane. Dow Jones a S&P 500 v ciernych, zatial co Nasdaq a Russell 2000 v cervenych cislach. US akcie profitovali z ocavania lepsich vysledkov spolocnosti Alcoa (co bolo nasledne sklamanie) a vyrazneho narastu importu a exportu v Cine (co potvrdzuje postupne ekonomicke ozivenie vo svete). Rast zahranicneho obchodu nebol taky vyrazny so zapadnym svetom ale skor s rozvijajucimi s trhmi. Celkovo rast za minuly rok: export +17.7% a import +55.9%.
- Spolocnost Alcoa ohlasila nizsi zisk za Q4, ktory predstavoval 1 cent/akciu (predpoved 6 centov/akciu). Vysledky boli negativne poznacene rastom cien energii ako aj rastom vstupnych nakladov aj napriek vyssim trzbam.
- Velmi dobre sa darilo spolocnosti Caterpillar Inc. po zverejneni dat z Ciny.
- Akcie spolocnosti Citigroup Inc. rastli potom co Saudsky miliardar princ Alwaleed bin Talal, ktory je najvacsim individualnym akcionarom Citigroup vyhlasil, ze banka ma uz najhorsie za sebou a pozitivne vidi buducnost banky. Rast bol utlmeny komentarom analytikov, ze Citigroup zverejni stratu vzhladom na vyssie naklady spojene so splatenim vladnej pomoci.
- Devalvacia venezuelskej meny bolivar o polovicu mala negativny vplyv na spolocnosti v sektore spotrebitelskeho tovaru: Procter&Gamble Co., Colgate-Palmolive Co. ako aj Avon Products Inc., Revlon Inc...atd. Spolocnosti budu mat v nasledujucom obdobi nizsie trzby.
- Technologicke spolocnosti tiez zaznamenali prepad co bolo prirodzene, kedze sa ich akcie za posledne obdobie znacne vzrastli a za cely minuly rok sa posunuli vyssie o 60%.
- Dnesne obchodovanie sa bude sustredit na udaje o zahranicnom obchode v USA, ktore budu zverejnene o 14:30 SEC.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 6022 s cielom na 6076. Stop pod 5984.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni hranice 5544 s cielom na 5575. Stop pod 5530.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1144 s cielom na 1152. Stop pod 1140.
- Dnesne doporucenie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Alstom, Axa, Banca Monte Dei., Fiat, groupe Bruxelles., Hermes, Inditex, ING Groep, LVMH, Michelin, Alliance Trust P., AstraZeneca, BP, British Land, BskyB, Bunzl, Cairn Energy, Capita Group, Carnival, Intercontinental.
- Dnesne doporucenie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Allianz, BMW, Danone, Deutsche Post, Essilor, France Telecom, K+S, Pernod-Ricard, Portugal Telecom, Admiral Group Plc, Anglo American, Diageo, Eurasian Natural., Liberty Internat., Prudential, SABMiller, Schroders, Standard Life.
ZLATO
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Momentalne vidime rast nad uroven nad 1160 obmedzeny. Doporucujeme nakupy okolo urovne 1165 s cielom hore okolo 1185 USD/uncu.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni 18.82 s cielom na 18.98 USD/uncu. Stop loss na 18.74.
ROPA
- Ropa sa prepadla na zaklade spekulacii o buducotyzdnovej zmene pocasia a vyraznejsom otepleni v Severnej Amerike, co by znamenalo znizenie dopytu po vykurovacich olejoch.
- Udaje z Ciny na druhej strane mali pozitivny vplyv na ceny ropy. Pri importe ropy do Ciny si treba uvedomit, ze rast je konstatny a podporeny rastom spotreby.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy okolo urovne 81.80 s cielom na 82.35 USD/barel. Stop na 81.52.
EUR/USD
- EUR sa nepodarilo udrazat zisky pocas azijskeho obchodovania a posunulo sa pod 1.4500. Nepomohla tomu ani hrozba inflacie a obrovskych deficitov v USA, kedze podobne problemy su aj v Europe.
- Urcite sklamanie okolo nezvysovania urokovych sadzieb v USA by mohlo pomoct EURUSD na vyssie urovne. Dolezita rezistencia je na 1.4570.
- Pripadne negativne udaje o novembrovom zahranicnom obchode USA by nemali mat negativny vplyv na USD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Vhodnou strategiou na dnes by mohli by takticke nakupy okolo urovne 1.4450 s miernymi ziskami. Celkovo vsak vidime obchdovanie v pasme pre stvrtkovym zasadanim ECB.
EUR/CZK
- EURCZK - vidime mierny posun na nizsie urovne, co je zapricinene celkovym vyvojom EURUSD. Prelomenie podpornej urovne 26.06/12 je malo pravdepododne.
- Vyhlad na 6 mesiacov: EURCZK 26-27.00; USDCZK: 18.20-50.
- Rezistencia je na 26.38/40 a podporna uroven na 26.06/12
11 ledna 2010
Market Commentary
Akciove trhy
- US akcie ukoncili minuly tyzden v pozitivnom teritoriu. Pomohli tomu hlavne ocakavania lepsich hospodarskych vysledkov firiem, ktorych zverejnenie zacina v pondelok spolocnostou Alcoa Inc. po ukoncenim obchodovania na Wall Street a spekulacie, ze FED ponecha urokove sadzby na nizkej urovni este dlho.
- Podarilo sa im uzavriet obchodovanie vyssie aj napriek neocakavanemu poklesu zamestnanosti (-85 000 pracovnych miest), zatial co analytici predpovedali vyrovnane cisla za mesiac december. Celkovo vsak trhy nevideli toto cislo az tak zle, kedze novembrove cisla boli revidovane a boli v pluse. To by mohlo potvrdit, ze investori sa pozeraju dalej do buducnosti, nielen na piatkove udaje.
- US akciam pomohli aj informacie, ze zasoby vo velkoobchode vzrastli, co by mohlo znamenat, ze objednavky sa zvysuju po nedavnom raste predajov.
- Akcie UPC Inc. sa posunuli vyssie, potom co spolocnost oznamila, ze jej zisk by mal byt vyssi ako predosly odhad a zaroven, ze prepusti 1800 zamestnancov aby bola schopna udrzat si terajsi podiel na US trhu.
- Akcie spolocnsoti Alcoa Inc. vzrastli potom co slabnuci USD pomohol rastu cien komodit.
- Podobne na tom boli aj spolocnosti AK Steel a U.S. Steel Corp. potom co JP Morgan zlepsila odhad pre tieto spolocnosti na zaklade predpokladov rastu cien ocele.
- Akcie spolocnosti Halliburton Co. vzrastli potom co Goldman Sachs Group Inc. zvysil vyhlad spolocnosit z neutralneho na nakup. Spolocnost je druhy najvacsi poskytovatel sluzieb a tazobnych zariadeni pre ropne spolocnosti na svete.
- Financne tituly poklesli potom co analytici Citigroup Inc. predpovedali pokles prijmov z obchodovania pre Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley Inc. Obchodovanie s dlhopismi, komoditami a FX pokleslo vo stvrtom stvrtroku a prijmi bank by mali tiez negativne ovplyvnene aj reformou financneho dohladu.
- Celkovo by hospodarske vysledky firiem mali byt lepsie v porovnani s rovnakym obdobim roku 2008. Dnesny vyhlad je pozitivny pre riziko, doporucujeme nakupy akcii po poklesoch.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 6058 s cielom pri 6110. Stop pod 6030.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5549 s cielom na 5600. Stop pod 5525.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1145 s cielom na 1154. Stop pod 1140.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Ahold, Banca Monte Dei., Banco Populare Es., BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Electricidade De., Enel, Fiat, Fortis, Hermes, BT Group, Cable & Wireless, Cairn Energy, Carnival, Eurasian Natural, HSBC Holdings, Kazakhyms Plc, Legal & General, Sainsbury, Standard Life.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Akzo Nobel, ASML Holding, Fortum, Groupe Bruxelles, Iberdrola, KPN, SES, Telecom Italia, Telefonica, Alliance Trust P., AstraZeneca, BP, Bunzl, Capita Group, Hammerson, Kingfisher, London Stock Ex., Man Group, Next.
ZLATO
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1146 s cielom na 1156 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1141.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy okolo urovne 18.60 s cielom na 18.77 USD/uncu. Stop pod 18.52.
ROPA
- Aj napriek horsim datam o zamestnanosti skoncila v ciernych cislach. Po zverejneni horsim ako ocakavanych dat ceny ropy poklesli ale nasledne sa vplyvom oslabujuceho USD vratili na vyssie urovne.
- Data neboli az tak zle, ak zohladnime ze 241 000 ludi nemohlo pracovat kvoli zlemu (velmi chladnemu) pocasiu.
- Tento tyzden by mohla cena ropy poklesnut na zaklade spekulacii, ze zasoby ropy by mohli tento tyzden opat vzrast zatial co spotreba paliv sa znizuje.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy okolo urovne 83.00 s cielom na 83.65 USD/barel. Stop pod 82.74.
EUR/USD
- USD zaznamenal najvacsi tyzdenny prepad od novembra pocas piatkoveho obchdovania co bolo vyvolane necakane horsimi datami z US trhu prace co vyvolalo spekulacie, ze FED moze rozsirit stimulacny balicek.
- Je potrebne sa vratit ku nedavno zverejenim Minutkam zo zasadania FED-u 15.-16. decembra, ked sa niektori predstavitelia preberali moznost zvysenia a rozsirenia stimulacneho programu ak by sa ekonomika oslabila.
- Nasledne tymto uvaham ako aj informaciam o prudkom raste exportov a importov z/do Ciny sa na FX trhy vratil zaujem investorov o riziko, ktory posuva EURUSD na vyssie urovne. Zaujimava bude uroven 1.4530/40, kde je velke mnozstvo cakajucich stopovych prikazov.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1.4470 s cielom na 1.4517 EURUSD. Stop loss pod 1.4456.
- US akcie ukoncili minuly tyzden v pozitivnom teritoriu. Pomohli tomu hlavne ocakavania lepsich hospodarskych vysledkov firiem, ktorych zverejnenie zacina v pondelok spolocnostou Alcoa Inc. po ukoncenim obchodovania na Wall Street a spekulacie, ze FED ponecha urokove sadzby na nizkej urovni este dlho.
- Podarilo sa im uzavriet obchodovanie vyssie aj napriek neocakavanemu poklesu zamestnanosti (-85 000 pracovnych miest), zatial co analytici predpovedali vyrovnane cisla za mesiac december. Celkovo vsak trhy nevideli toto cislo az tak zle, kedze novembrove cisla boli revidovane a boli v pluse. To by mohlo potvrdit, ze investori sa pozeraju dalej do buducnosti, nielen na piatkove udaje.
- US akciam pomohli aj informacie, ze zasoby vo velkoobchode vzrastli, co by mohlo znamenat, ze objednavky sa zvysuju po nedavnom raste predajov.
- Akcie UPC Inc. sa posunuli vyssie, potom co spolocnost oznamila, ze jej zisk by mal byt vyssi ako predosly odhad a zaroven, ze prepusti 1800 zamestnancov aby bola schopna udrzat si terajsi podiel na US trhu.
- Akcie spolocnsoti Alcoa Inc. vzrastli potom co slabnuci USD pomohol rastu cien komodit.
- Podobne na tom boli aj spolocnosti AK Steel a U.S. Steel Corp. potom co JP Morgan zlepsila odhad pre tieto spolocnosti na zaklade predpokladov rastu cien ocele.
- Akcie spolocnosti Halliburton Co. vzrastli potom co Goldman Sachs Group Inc. zvysil vyhlad spolocnosit z neutralneho na nakup. Spolocnost je druhy najvacsi poskytovatel sluzieb a tazobnych zariadeni pre ropne spolocnosti na svete.
- Financne tituly poklesli potom co analytici Citigroup Inc. predpovedali pokles prijmov z obchodovania pre Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley Inc. Obchodovanie s dlhopismi, komoditami a FX pokleslo vo stvrtom stvrtroku a prijmi bank by mali tiez negativne ovplyvnene aj reformou financneho dohladu.
- Celkovo by hospodarske vysledky firiem mali byt lepsie v porovnani s rovnakym obdobim roku 2008. Dnesny vyhlad je pozitivny pre riziko, doporucujeme nakupy akcii po poklesoch.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 6058 s cielom pri 6110. Stop pod 6030.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5549 s cielom na 5600. Stop pod 5525.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1145 s cielom na 1154. Stop pod 1140.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Ahold, Banca Monte Dei., Banco Populare Es., BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Electricidade De., Enel, Fiat, Fortis, Hermes, BT Group, Cable & Wireless, Cairn Energy, Carnival, Eurasian Natural, HSBC Holdings, Kazakhyms Plc, Legal & General, Sainsbury, Standard Life.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Akzo Nobel, ASML Holding, Fortum, Groupe Bruxelles, Iberdrola, KPN, SES, Telecom Italia, Telefonica, Alliance Trust P., AstraZeneca, BP, Bunzl, Capita Group, Hammerson, Kingfisher, London Stock Ex., Man Group, Next.
ZLATO
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1146 s cielom na 1156 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1141.
STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy okolo urovne 18.60 s cielom na 18.77 USD/uncu. Stop pod 18.52.
ROPA
- Aj napriek horsim datam o zamestnanosti skoncila v ciernych cislach. Po zverejneni horsim ako ocakavanych dat ceny ropy poklesli ale nasledne sa vplyvom oslabujuceho USD vratili na vyssie urovne.
- Data neboli az tak zle, ak zohladnime ze 241 000 ludi nemohlo pracovat kvoli zlemu (velmi chladnemu) pocasiu.
- Tento tyzden by mohla cena ropy poklesnut na zaklade spekulacii, ze zasoby ropy by mohli tento tyzden opat vzrast zatial co spotreba paliv sa znizuje.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy okolo urovne 83.00 s cielom na 83.65 USD/barel. Stop pod 82.74.
EUR/USD
- USD zaznamenal najvacsi tyzdenny prepad od novembra pocas piatkoveho obchdovania co bolo vyvolane necakane horsimi datami z US trhu prace co vyvolalo spekulacie, ze FED moze rozsirit stimulacny balicek.
- Je potrebne sa vratit ku nedavno zverejenim Minutkam zo zasadania FED-u 15.-16. decembra, ked sa niektori predstavitelia preberali moznost zvysenia a rozsirenia stimulacneho programu ak by sa ekonomika oslabila.
- Nasledne tymto uvaham ako aj informaciam o prudkom raste exportov a importov z/do Ciny sa na FX trhy vratil zaujem investorov o riziko, ktory posuva EURUSD na vyssie urovne. Zaujimava bude uroven 1.4530/40, kde je velke mnozstvo cakajucich stopovych prikazov.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1.4470 s cielom na 1.4517 EURUSD. Stop loss pod 1.4456.
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
I have opted this week to go without a weekly outlook and concentrate on the day’s events instead. Ironically though today is going to be the lightest data day for the whole week but nonetheless…
We have all now seen the Friday NFP numbers and while many in the market were seemingly disappointed by the print I for one wasn’t really surprised after the nonsensical print in the previous month. Net result of all of this has seen the USD sold off across the board and that trend continues this morning. With thin trade overnight in Asia (Japan on holiday) we saw the antipodeans take full advantage and both the AUD and NZD ticked higher, with the AUD in particular being helped along by better Job ad numbers. I think this AUD is still overdone and only really here on the back of this slightly sold off USD, so I continue to fader the rally looking for sells into 0.9330/70.
Elsewhere the temporary death of the USD has meant that commodities and in particular gold and oil have both surged higher and this has in turn had an offered effect on the USDCAD. Overnight we tested significant support around the 1.0250 level and have since then seen a small bounce out. I still think this thing is overdone and continue buying the pair on dips, stops need to be going in below 1.0225 looking for corrective moves back into 1.0420 with 1.0380 needing to be cleared as the first hurdle and indicator.
The USDJPY has failed to do anything really impressive on the downside in light of a weaker USD and this to me signals that for the short term dips are opportunities to get long. I appreciate that clearly this is a shift in my own sentiment, but you can’t argue with the market. I do however believe that the topside is still limited to 93.50/80, but in the mean time moves lower into 91.90 are seen to be good buying. The JPY crosses in general look like they are set to continue gaining for this week, but I advise caution as this might turn very quickly. I remain long of an AUDJPY Put option (strike 83, exp. 21/1/10).
On the EURUSD, well this thing is poised to go higher and at the very least take out stops that have been sitting above 1.4530/40 for about the last 2 weeks. Once these are cleaned out and the market wakes up a little, I think we’ll be seeing this thing coming back into 1.4250/4300. Till this happens I suggest spending some quality time on the sidelines.
The Cable is behaving similarly to the EUR in that its making the most of an offered USD, however, fundamentally clearly nothing has changed over there and if anything this thing is just being geared up to be sold off once more. Not surprising to see some retracement after the last 2 weeks price action, but all in all still a sell. On the day 1.6130 stops should be taken out and I would be a seller into 1.6180/6200.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
I have opted this week to go without a weekly outlook and concentrate on the day’s events instead. Ironically though today is going to be the lightest data day for the whole week but nonetheless…
We have all now seen the Friday NFP numbers and while many in the market were seemingly disappointed by the print I for one wasn’t really surprised after the nonsensical print in the previous month. Net result of all of this has seen the USD sold off across the board and that trend continues this morning. With thin trade overnight in Asia (Japan on holiday) we saw the antipodeans take full advantage and both the AUD and NZD ticked higher, with the AUD in particular being helped along by better Job ad numbers. I think this AUD is still overdone and only really here on the back of this slightly sold off USD, so I continue to fader the rally looking for sells into 0.9330/70.
Elsewhere the temporary death of the USD has meant that commodities and in particular gold and oil have both surged higher and this has in turn had an offered effect on the USDCAD. Overnight we tested significant support around the 1.0250 level and have since then seen a small bounce out. I still think this thing is overdone and continue buying the pair on dips, stops need to be going in below 1.0225 looking for corrective moves back into 1.0420 with 1.0380 needing to be cleared as the first hurdle and indicator.
The USDJPY has failed to do anything really impressive on the downside in light of a weaker USD and this to me signals that for the short term dips are opportunities to get long. I appreciate that clearly this is a shift in my own sentiment, but you can’t argue with the market. I do however believe that the topside is still limited to 93.50/80, but in the mean time moves lower into 91.90 are seen to be good buying. The JPY crosses in general look like they are set to continue gaining for this week, but I advise caution as this might turn very quickly. I remain long of an AUDJPY Put option (strike 83, exp. 21/1/10).
On the EURUSD, well this thing is poised to go higher and at the very least take out stops that have been sitting above 1.4530/40 for about the last 2 weeks. Once these are cleaned out and the market wakes up a little, I think we’ll be seeing this thing coming back into 1.4250/4300. Till this happens I suggest spending some quality time on the sidelines.
The Cable is behaving similarly to the EUR in that its making the most of an offered USD, however, fundamentally clearly nothing has changed over there and if anything this thing is just being geared up to be sold off once more. Not surprising to see some retracement after the last 2 weeks price action, but all in all still a sell. On the day 1.6130 stops should be taken out and I would be a seller into 1.6180/6200.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Ken Veksler's Market Commentary
Good morning,
I have opted this week to go without a weekly outlook and concentrate on the day’s events instead. Ironically though today is going to be the lightest data day for the whole week but nonetheless…
We have all now seen the Friday NFP numbers and while many in the market were seemingly disappointed by the print I for one wasn’t really surprised after the nonsensical print in the previous month. Net result of all of this has seen the USD sold off across the board and that trend continues this morning. With thin trade overnight in Asia (Japan on holiday) we saw the antipodeans take full advantage and both the AUD and NZD ticked higher, with the AUD in particular being helped along by better Job ad numbers. I think this AUD is still overdone and only really here on the back of this slightly sold off USD, so I continue to fader the rally looking for sells into 0.9330/70.
Elsewhere the temporary death of the USD has meant that commodities and in particular gold and oil have both surged higher and this has in turn had an offered effect on the USDCAD. Overnight we tested significant support around the 1.0250 level and have since then seen a small bounce out. I still think this thing is overdone and continue buying the pair on dips, stops need to be going in below 1.0225 looking for corrective moves back into 1.0420 with 1.0380 needing to be cleared as the first hurdle and indicator.
The USDJPY has failed to do anything really impressive on the downside in light of a weaker USD and this to me signals that for the short term dips are opportunities to get long. I appreciate that clearly this is a shift in my own sentiment, but you can’t argue with the market. I do however believe that the topside is still limited to 93.50/80, but in the mean time moves lower into 91.90 are seen to be good buying. The JPY crosses in general look like they are set to continue gaining for this week, but I advise caution as this might turn very quickly. I remain long of an AUDJPY Put option (strike 83, exp. 21/1/10).
On the EURUSD, well this thing is poised to go higher and at the very least take out stops that have been sitting above 1.4530/40 for about the last 2 weeks. Once these are cleaned out and the market wakes up a little, I think we’ll be seeing this thing coming back into 1.4250/4300. Till this happens I suggest spending some quality time on the sidelines.
The Cable is behaving similarly to the EUR in that its making the most of an offered USD, however, fundamentally clearly nothing has changed over there and if anything this thing is just being geared up to be sold off once more. Not surprising to see some retracement after the last 2 weeks price action, but all in all still a sell. On the day 1.6130 stops should be taken out and I would be a seller into 1.6180/6200.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
I have opted this week to go without a weekly outlook and concentrate on the day’s events instead. Ironically though today is going to be the lightest data day for the whole week but nonetheless…
We have all now seen the Friday NFP numbers and while many in the market were seemingly disappointed by the print I for one wasn’t really surprised after the nonsensical print in the previous month. Net result of all of this has seen the USD sold off across the board and that trend continues this morning. With thin trade overnight in Asia (Japan on holiday) we saw the antipodeans take full advantage and both the AUD and NZD ticked higher, with the AUD in particular being helped along by better Job ad numbers. I think this AUD is still overdone and only really here on the back of this slightly sold off USD, so I continue to fader the rally looking for sells into 0.9330/70.
Elsewhere the temporary death of the USD has meant that commodities and in particular gold and oil have both surged higher and this has in turn had an offered effect on the USDCAD. Overnight we tested significant support around the 1.0250 level and have since then seen a small bounce out. I still think this thing is overdone and continue buying the pair on dips, stops need to be going in below 1.0225 looking for corrective moves back into 1.0420 with 1.0380 needing to be cleared as the first hurdle and indicator.
The USDJPY has failed to do anything really impressive on the downside in light of a weaker USD and this to me signals that for the short term dips are opportunities to get long. I appreciate that clearly this is a shift in my own sentiment, but you can’t argue with the market. I do however believe that the topside is still limited to 93.50/80, but in the mean time moves lower into 91.90 are seen to be good buying. The JPY crosses in general look like they are set to continue gaining for this week, but I advise caution as this might turn very quickly. I remain long of an AUDJPY Put option (strike 83, exp. 21/1/10).
On the EURUSD, well this thing is poised to go higher and at the very least take out stops that have been sitting above 1.4530/40 for about the last 2 weeks. Once these are cleaned out and the market wakes up a little, I think we’ll be seeing this thing coming back into 1.4250/4300. Till this happens I suggest spending some quality time on the sidelines.
The Cable is behaving similarly to the EUR in that its making the most of an offered USD, however, fundamentally clearly nothing has changed over there and if anything this thing is just being geared up to be sold off once more. Not surprising to see some retracement after the last 2 weeks price action, but all in all still a sell. On the day 1.6130 stops should be taken out and I would be a seller into 1.6180/6200.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Přihlásit se k odběru:
Příspěvky (Atom)