22 prosince 2009

22/12 Trader's Diary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory

As the days unfold and bring us ever closer to Christmas, fewer and fewer things seem to be happening across the market unsurprisingly. The upside of this of course is that you all have to endure less reading and rambling from yours truly.

So in short, little if anything to report and for those that read yesterday’s comment all the same rules apply.

I will be sending one more comment tomorrow and that should do it until January 5th when hopefully the market starts to pick up a little bit more.

In the meantime;

USDJPY: Stay away.
GBPUSD: Sell rallies.
AUDUSD: Sell rallies.
EURUSD: Capped at 1.4370, sell rallies.

21 prosince 2009

21/12 Trader's Diary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Fairly quiet overnight as almost everyone expected the only exception to the rule was the EURCHF which had an ugly move lower trading into 1.4815 but then quickly rebounding into 1.4925 at the time of print.

Hard to know what (if anything) is going through the minds of the SNB but needless to say the market is now anxiously awaiting their involvement. I am not even prepared to offer an opinion here other than to say that this move in my view was long overdue and I’m happy to see it happen.

Moving swiftly on looking at the broader market and I have nothing for you, it’s the week leading into Christmas and to all I suggest getting the last bit of your shopping in and staying warm with loved ones. The last thing any of you should be doing is looking at this market with a view to getting involved.

However, for those of you that can’t help yourselves, here’s a brief synopsis;

EURUSD: Lower, look for 1.4280 to break and 1.4250 to be touched within the next few days.
GBPUSD: Keep selling it, 1.6350 marks the overall peak for now.
USDJPY: Play the range, 90.80 down to 88.80
AUDUSD: Sell rallies.

There will be more comments this week, but as you can plainly tell they’re not going to be as inflammatory or as exciting as my previous attempts.

21/12 Ekonomický komentár "Kúp, predaj, podrž"

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy zaznamenali vyrazny prepad pocas minulotyzdnoveho obchodovania. Hlavnymi pricinami boli predaj akci Citigroup Inc. s diskontom a predpokladany pokles ziskovosti spolocnosti Best Buy Co. a Fedex Corp. Na druhej strane vyssie ako ocakavane prijmy spolocnosti Oracle Corp. and lepsia predpoved pre Research In Motion Ltd. pomohli tlmit tento prepad.

- Niektore banky zacali predcasne splacat vladnu pomoc, ktoru dostali v ramci programu TARP. Robia to prostrednictvom predaja novych akcii, co nema velku podporu u existujucich akcionarov a zapricinuje vyrazny pokles cien bankovych titulov.

- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA okrem Chicago Fed National Activity Index o 14:30 SEC. Akekolvek udaje mensie ako nula znamenaju, ze US ekonomika rastie pomalsie ako je historicky trend.

- Celkovo vidime predaj a realizovanie ziskov z obchodovania s akciami ku koncu ropa.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5825 s cielom pri 5804. Stop nad 5835.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny.Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5190 s cielom na 5163. Stop nad 5205.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 1094 s cielom na 1087. Stop nad 1097.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): ASML Holding, Deutsche Boerse, Merck KGaA, Reed Elsevier, Ryanair, Sanofi-Aventis.

- Dnesne odporucane na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Allianz, Anheuser-Busch I., Axa, Banca Monte Dei., BMW, BNP Paribas, Capgemini, Carrefour, Crédit Agricole.

ROPA -
Rope sa zacina darit, kedze investori ocakavaju v buducom roku ekonomicke ozivenie, vyssi dopyt zo strany rozvijajucich sa ekonomik ako aj vyssi dopyt z USA.

- Ako zaujimavy tip by sme videli predaj februaroveho kontraktu na ropu WTI a nakup februaroveho kontraktu na ropu Brent. WTI ropa je mierne drahsie v porovnani s ropou Brent, kedze jedna z kanadskych rafinerii vdaka poziaru musela zastavit dodavky ropy do USA. To posunulo ceny ropy WTI vysse urovne oproti rope Brent, z coho sa crta kratkodoba moznost pre arbitraz.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny. Geopoliticka rizika pomahaju rastu cien ropy. Dnesne obchodovanie by malo by v pasme 74.10-75.30 USD/barel.

ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Horna hranica cien je limitovana na urovni 1119. Odporucame predaje s cielom testovat uroven 1100 s cielom na 1000 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1123.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.45 s cielom znovu otestovat uroven 17.20 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.55.

EUR/USD -
Silny trend posilnovania USD sa zda, ze pomalicky straca na sile, aspon nateraz. USD je pozitivne ovplyvneny niektorymi lepsimi datami z USA, co vyvolava spekulacie, ze FED by mohol zacat aktivnejsie presadzovat svoju menovu politiku (stahovanie penazi z obehu a urokove sadzby). Otazne je, ci FED bude naozaj taky razantny a zacne zvysovat urokove sadzby, co by znamenalo vyssie naklady na splacanie US dlhu (co si zadlzene USA nie velmi mozu dovolit), alebo bude riskovat vyssiu inflaciu.

- Tohto tyzdnove ekonomicke ukazovatele z USA by mali byt podporit USD.

- Na EURUSD mame neutralny vyhlad. Vidime konsolidaciu v pasme 1.4285-1.4380 EURUSD. Riziko prelomenia urovne 1.4450 predtym ako sa posunie nizsie.

EUR/CZK-
Vyhlad na CZK: EURCZK: 26.00-27.00 a USDCZK: 18.00-19.25.

- Pri obchodovani s CZK bude prevladat velmi nizka likvidita. CZK bude preto ovplyvnena vyvojom EURUSD a dianim na akciovych trhoch.

- Rezistencia je na 26.65 a podporna uroven na 26.06-26.12 EURCZK.

18 prosince 2009

18/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY
- Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v cervenych cislach. Hlavnymi faktormi poklesu cien boli predaj akcii Citigroup Inc., horsie hospodarske vysledky spolocnosti FedEx Corp. a neocakavany narast ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti v USA.

- Citigroup predava nove akcie aby ziskala dostatocne prostriedky na splatenie financnej pomoci od vlady. Vcerajsi predaj prebehol za vyrazne nizku cenu. Kedze predaj bol realizovany za nizsiu cenu ako US vlada zaplatila za akcie (pocas preberania kontroly a poskytovania pomoci), planovany predaj podielu vlady v Citigroup bol odlozeny o 90 dni.

- Akcie spolocnosti FedEx poklesli, ked horsie vysledky boli v ramci ocakavani analytikov. Spolocnost Fedex je „indikatorom“ ekonomickej aktivity po celom svete, kedze prepravuje vsetko od drobnych zasielok az po stroje. Horsie vysledky svedcia a mensej ekonomickej aktivite vo svete.

- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA, ale doporucujeme sledovat udaje o IFO (Index podnikatelskej aktivity) z GE o 10:00 SEC.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Deutsche Boerse, Fiat, Fortum, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Saipem, Vallourec.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ASML Holding, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, ENI.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj okolo urovne 5834 s cielom pri 5775. Stop nad 5860.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame pedaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 5220 s cielom na 5176. Stop nad 5238.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1102 s cielom na 1093. Stop nad 1106.

ROPA -
V poslednych dnoch ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD, ktory vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochrana pred inflaciou.

- Na druhej strane vcerajsi narast bol zapricineny lepsimi vyhliadkami US ekonomiky a vacsim poklesom oficialnych zasob ropy.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 73.00 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.70.

ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1116 s cielom na 1098 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1122.

ZLATO – vyhlad 2010-2014-
Ako hlavny faktor poklesu cien zlata vidime vyrazne posilnenie USD. Kedze zlato, podobne ako aj ostatne komodity sa ocenuje v USD, tak sa rast USD automaticky premietol do poklesu cien.

- Je to dane takisto aj dalsimi faktormi ako mensi zaujem investorov o zlato a komodity ako ochrany pred inflaciou.

- Rast cien zlata do roku 2014 na uroven 1500 USD/uncu moze byt realny, ak by USA zaznamenali vyssiu inflaciu, ktora by viedla k znehodnoteniu USD a vyraznemu rastu cien. Toto nemusi byt az take nepravdepodobne vzhladom na obrovsky objem USD, ktory bol „napumpovany“ do ekonomiky v podobe zachrannych balickov.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.50 s cielom na 17.10 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.70.

EUR/USD
- EURUSD je stale ovplyvnene posilnovanim USD. EUR nepomaha situacia spojena s rozpoctovymi problemami Grecka.

- Zaujimavy vyvoj je medzi EURCHF. V Eurozone je velky prebytok likvidity po nedavnom 12-mesacnom tendri ECB co tlaci urokove sadzby na nizsie urovne. Nasledne investori predavaju EUR a nakupuju CHF, co vyvolava tlak na zhodnotenie CHF. SNB zatial nezasiahla, ale je zaujimave sledovat tento vyvoj. Z kratkodobeho hladiska long EURCHF moze byt zaujimavy obchod, dlhodobo sme vsak naladeny na short EURCHF.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Mozeme vidiet posun na 1.4410, s moznostou dalsej korekcie ku 1.4480 pred dalsim prepadom nizsie. Cielovu uroven vidime na 1.4300 EURUSD.

17 prosince 2009

17/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Nalada investorov sa niesla v znameni neistoty spojenej s rastom urokovych sadzieb, lepsich vysledkov novych zacatych stavieb domov a stabilnej spotrebitelskej inflacie v USA.

- Producenti kovov a energii ako aj spolocnosti z financneho sektora rastli, co by mohlo zamenat, ze inflacia predstavuje riziko do buducna.

- Trh reagoval na vyssiu PPI (rast cien v priemysle) a zaroven protichodny komentar FED-u, ze ponecha urokove sadzby na nizkych urovniach pocas dostatocne dlheho obdobia.

- Dnes doporucujeme sledovat udaje o vyske ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti (14:30 SEC) a tzv. Leading Indicators (16:00 SEC), ktore priamo ovplyvnia akciove trhy.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Ahold, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, Daimler.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatori): France Telecom, L‘Oréal.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5860 s cielom pri 5920. Stop pod 6835.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5280 s cielom na 5330. Stop pod 5260.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1115. Stop pod 1099.


ROPA
- Ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD. Pokles bol vyssi ako narast zapricineny poklesom zasob ropy o 3689k versus ocakavany pokles o 2000k.

- Posilnujuci USD vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochranu pred inflaciou.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 72.50 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.25.

ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1135 s cielom na 1115 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1143.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.65 s cielom na 17.35 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.80.

EUR/USD
- Vcerajsi komentar FOMC bol potvrdenim, ze FED sa stale riadi podla starych pravidiel. Stabilizacia v oblasti zamestnanosti a v bankovom a financnom sektore podporuje snahy FED-u o postupne stahovanie likvidity z obehu podla planu.

- FED vychadza z politiky prekonania financnej krizy, podpory rastu ekonomiky a minimalizacie inflacneho rizika.

- Vcerajsi komentar nenaznacil casovy horizont zacatia stahovania nadbytocnej likvidity, vyvratil vsak obavy z dlhodobeho znehodnotenia USD. Toto by mohlo znamenat zmenu trendu v EURUSD.

- EUR nepomohlo znizenie ratingu Grecka (Fitch nedavno, dnes v noci aj Standard & Poor) co znamena mensi zaujem investorov o aktiva v Grecku, menej kapitalu, drahsie uvery a zhorsujuce sa podmienky v ekonomike.

- EUR sa stava neatraktivne aj vdaka vyhlaseniam z Bruselu a z niektorych velky krajin EU o moznej pomoci Grecku v pripade potreby (Bail-out). To je fakt, ktory vytvara dalsi tlak na EUR.

- Na EURUSD mame negativny vyhlad. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni k urovni 1.4430-50 s dalsim posunom ku 1.43. Vyraznejsie zhodnotenie vidime len nad urovnou 1.4520.

17/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Nalada investorov sa niesla v znameni neistoty spojenej s rastom urokovych sadzieb, lepsich vysledkov novych zacatych stavieb domov a stabilnej spotrebitelskej inflacie v USA.

- Producenti kovov a energii ako aj spolocnosti z financneho sektora rastli, co by mohlo zamenat, ze inflacia predstavuje riziko do buducna.

- Trh reagoval na vyssiu PPI (rast cien v priemysle) a zaroven protichodny komentar FED-u, ze ponecha urokove sadzby na nizkych urovniach pocas dostatocne dlheho obdobia.

- Dnes doporucujeme sledovat udaje o vyske ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti (14:30 SEC) a tzv. Leading Indicators (16:00 SEC), ktore priamo ovplyvnia akciove trhy.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Ahold, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, Daimler.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatori): France Telecom, L‘Oréal.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5860 s cielom pri 5920. Stop pod 6835.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5280 s cielom na 5330. Stop pod 5260.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1115. Stop pod 1099.


ROPA
- Ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD. Pokles bol vyssi ako narast zapricineny poklesom zasob ropy o 3689k versus ocakavany pokles o 2000k.

- Posilnujuci USD vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochranu pred inflaciou.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 72.50 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.25.

ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1135 s cielom na 1115 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1143.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.65 s cielom na 17.35 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.80.

EUR/USD
- Vcerajsi komentar FOMC bol potvrdenim, ze FED sa stale riadi podla starych pravidiel. Stabilizacia v oblasti zamestnanosti a v bankovom a financnom sektore podporuje snahy FED-u o postupne stahovanie likvidity z obehu podla planu.

- FED vychadza z politiky prekonania financnej krizy, podpory rastu ekonomiky a minimalizacie inflacneho rizika.

- Vcerajsi komentar nenaznacil casovy horizont zacatia stahovania nadbytocnej likvidity, vyvratil vsak obavy z dlhodobeho znehodnotenia USD. Toto by mohlo znamenat zmenu trendu v EURUSD.

- EUR nepomohlo znizenie ratingu Grecka (Fitch nedavno, dnes v noci aj Standard & Poor) co znamena mensi zaujem investorov o aktiva v Grecku, menej kapitalu, drahsie uvery a zhorsujuce sa podmienky v ekonomike.

- EUR sa stava neatraktivne aj vdaka vyhlaseniam z Bruselu a z niektorych velky krajin EU o moznej pomoci Grecku v pripade potreby (Bail-out). To je fakt, ktory vytvara dalsi tlak na EUR.

- Na EURUSD mame negativny vyhlad. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni k urovni 1.4430-50 s dalsim posunom ku 1.43. Vyraznejsie zhodnotenie vidime len nad urovnou 1.4520.

16 prosince 2009

16/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Radim Dohnal, Saxo Bank

ZLATO
I na dnešek jsme naladěni negativně. Bojíme se dalšího posilování dolaru, což většinou vede ke slabšímu zlatu. Pro dnešek bychom doporučili opatrný prodej pokud se zlato dostane na 1135, s cílem 1115.

ROPA
Na cenu ropy má aktuálně vliv situace v Nigérii a samozřejmě vztah k riziku. I ropu doporučujeme prodávat, to od úrovně 71,28, s cílem 70 UDS/barel. Jistě bude záležet na dnešním komentáři FOMC dnes večer.

16/12 Trader's Diary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory

A great night to be an Australian mortgage holder as deputy RBA Governor Battelino commented in no uncertain terms that thanks to the greed of local Australian banks the job of the RBA in raising rates has effectively been done….

Well sort of. What he did really say was that due to the local institutions hiking rates over and above recent official rises the OCR has now moved into “fair value” or a normal range and that there should now be a leveling out of further moves by the RBA.

This was enough to send the AUD into a tail spin and the cross that I have been bearish for some time on tripped stop orders sitting below the 0.9000 handle and was further helped on its way with disappointing GDP data. Needless to say “Merry Christmas” for me. Looking ahead for this pair I see small squeezes higher that are on a corrective path but I remain bearish and target 0.8780 before the end of this week.

Right enough of my unadulterated happiness, let’s look at the central bank mania that is today. We’ve started off with the Swedish Riks bank which has left rates unchanged and release a more dovish comment this morning than expected but to little avail to the EURSEK cross which at the time of print remains relatively unmoved. Next on the agenda is the Norges bank which promises to hold a surprise 25bps hike, and if failing to deliver on that will undoubtedly provide hawkish commentary that will serve the purpose.

Otherwise we have the FOMC tonight which should leave us breathless… Well not really, our man Ben most likely will not deviate from recent language and continue on the low rates for an extended period rhetoric…. Either way I remain a dollar bull and look for further upside out of the greenback. We also have EZ CPI and UK Unemployment, both of which should ensure that the respective crosses remain capped on small corrective moves higher.

With regard the majors I see the following today;

EURUSD: Capped at 1.4570/80, and I’m a cautious seller into those levels, but warn punters out there to be wary of ugly stops sitting just above.

GBPUSD: Sell, sell, sell…. 1.6350 is the level today if you even see it there and I continue to target 1.6150/00

USDCAD: Play the range, if aint broke don’t fix it. Sell into 1.0650/80 and take them back around 1.0580

USDJPY: Look for a nasty squeeze into 90.30 and from there sell your grandmother, this thing is going lower and I look for 89.30 as the first target followed by clean outs of weak stops into 88.80

AUDUSD: Refer above but the short message is SELL!

AUDNZD: I remain short 25% of my original position and now firmly target 1.2470/50 for limit orders.

15 prosince 2009

15/12 Trader's Diary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Tight ranges prevail overnight as the theme of tighter volume/liquidity continues and if anything gathers momentum. Everything was confined overnight to practically 40/50 point ranges and the only pairs showing any signs of life were the antipodeans with the AUD touched by RBA minutes highlighting the possibility of a pause in the hike cycle and the CAD reacting in small to the Exxon XTO deal done yesterday with oil moving a little as well.

Elsewhere it was all quiet on the western front and only this morning we walk in to see the EUR, Cable and a few others squeeze ahead of a day jammed with data (mainly out of the US).

On the day look for 1.4550 to hold the downside in EURUSD and the squeeze we’re currently experiencing could well be related to the ZEW data first off the rank this morning. Following this we have a raft of US data as well as the beginning of the 2 day FOMC meeting.

In all fairness I expect the recent recovery in the greenback to continue if not with the same pace as it has thus far. What does this mean for the majors over the coming days? Well in simple terms it means testing the bottom end of recent ranges and the Cable of all pairs to be feeling the pressure the most. I look for 1.6150 to be tested much sooner than most anticipate.

The trade of the day yesterday was to play the range in the USDCAD and it paid well, will it again today? Perhaps is the short answer, but in the meantime I suggest looking at scaling into shorts around the 1.0650/80 levels and look to place stops above 1.0730 with targets to the downside being 1.0570 and below.

To all of you there I say safe helmet wearing and good luck.

15/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v ciernych cislach. Ako hlavny faktor bol tzv. Bail-out vo vyske 10 mld. USD spolocnosti Nakheel PJSC (sucast Dubai World, ktora sa zaobera investiciami do nehnutelnosti) a informacia, ze Exxon Corp. suhlasila s kupou spolocnosti XTO Energy Inc. (producent zemneho plynu). Dana operacia sa pohybuje v rovine 31 mld. USD, co predstavuje najvacsie prevzatie energetickej spolocnosti od roku 2006.

- Akcie Citigroup Inc. poklesli po tom co, spolocnost vyhlasila, ze sa dohodla s regulacnymi organmi na splateni 20 mld. USD financnej pomoci od US vlady prostrednictvom emisie novych akcii a dlhopisov. Tato sprava spolu s informaciou o zaujme U.S. Treasury Department predat akcie v hodnote 5 mld. USD, ktore vlastni US vlada a nasledne aj zvysok v priebehu dalsich 12 mesiacov vyrazne posunulo ceny akcii Citigroup na trojmesacne minima.

- Dnesny den bude velmi rusny vzhladom na zverejnenie mnozstva dolezitych ekonomickych ukazovatelov na oboch stranach Atlantiku.

- Dnesne doporucenie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Akzo Nobel, Allianz, Bayer, EADS, Enel, Essilor, Finmeccanica, Fortum, France Telecom, GDF Suez.

- Dnesne doporucenie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Banco Santander, Fortis, Siemens, Sodexho.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 5793 s cielom pri 5764. Stop nad 5811.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 5298 s cielom na 5260. Stop nad 5318.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1117 s cielom na 1110. Stop nad 1117.

ROPA -
Zaujem investorov o nakup ropy, ktorej cena bola pod urovnou 70 USD/barel ako dobrej prilezistosti pomohol rope sa vysplhat z dvojmesacnych minim. Ropa spadla na tieto urovne na zaklade udajov o poklese priemyselnej produkcie v Europe a malom zlepseni sa spotrebitelskej dovery v Japonsku.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je neutralny. Je pravdepodobne, ze sa ropa bude obchodovat v pasme 69.50-70.25 USD/barel. Ocakavame vsak prelomenie tohto pasma oboma smermi.

ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny. Je pravdepodobne, ze sa bude obchodovat v pasme 1120 - 1128 USD/uncu. Je pritomne aj riziko prelomenia tohto pasma smerom k podpornej urovni 1110.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 17.27 smerom ku 17.10 USD/uncu. Ak nie, obchodovanie zostane v pasme 17.27-17.43.

EUR/USD
- Reakcia EURUSD na bail-out Dubai World bola velmi vlazna. Ziaden vyrazny narast EURUSD nenastal, co len potvrdzuje, ze vplyv averzie k riziku na EURUSD je mensi ako bol v minulosti.

- Tento tyzden nam poskytne dostatok ekonomicky dat, z ktorych by hlavne dnesne data mohli podporit USD.

- Udaje o PPI (ukazovat rastu cien v priemysle) by mohli byt klucove, kedze vyrazny narast by mohol znamet, ze FED by bol nuteny v pripade vyssej inflacie zacat zvysovat urokove sadzby podstatne skor ako sa predpokladalo.

- Je vsak mozne, ze tieto udaje nebudu mat velky vplyv na EURUSD, kedze trhy sa sustredia na zatrajsi komentar FED-u, ktory by mohol naznacit dalsie smerovanie urokovaj politiky.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavame dalsiu konsolidaciu v pasme 1.4600-80, ale doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni. V pripade posunu nad 1.4715 doporucujeme prestat predavat po zhodnoteni.

EUR/CZK -
Zakladne predpoklady obchodovania s CZK zostavaju nezmene. Zajtrajsie zasadanie CNB by mohlo priniest zaujimavy vyvoj v oblasti vysky urokovych sazdieb.

- CZK je pod vplyvom obchodovania na akciovych trhoch a USD, a obchodovanie zostava v uzkom pasme pred zajtrajsim komentarom FED-u, ktory by mohol priniest ozivenie.

- Rezistencia je na 26.168 a podporna uroven na 25.66 EURCZK.

14 prosince 2009

14/12 Daily market commentary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Apologies for the delay in writing this but as the last full trading week of the year begins so too does my yearning for it to be over…

It’s been a long year and no doubt much the same for many of you. The usual rules apply this week as they have for many year ends in recent times and that is thin liquidity on the back of lower volumes and subsequently increased volatility with small orders being enough to really shift this market. So where does that leave the view for the week….

Put your helmets on folks it’s going to be boring for the most part, whippy in brief periods and when it does actually move most of all ugly. There will be a series of data/event risks that might light some fireworks which include;

• RBA meeting minutes
• UK CPI and Unemployment
• US PPI
• US and Euro Zone CPI
• FOMC

None of the above should hold any real surprises in store for the market, but there is the ever slim chance that the FOMC hints not at a tightening, but more so simply changes the tone of the language used. Looking to perhaps for the first time in months not use the phrase “for an extended period of time”. Clearly this will give the greenback some more impetus on its recent road to small recovery, but in all likelihood I wouldn’t hold my breath.

So rather than boring you with ranting on about what may or may not happen this week on the data front, I will instead turn straight to the major pairs:

EURUSD: As noted in my daily comment on Friday this thing is range bound and the risk remains to the downside. I would be a seller of rallies all the way into 1.4750 and 1.4800 looking for a final (although improbable) move into 1.4500.

GBPUSD: Cable remains a screaming sell and the cross will find it tough to breach the 1.6500 zone. I sell into rallies and look for potentially sub 1.6100 this week although conservatively 1.6180 should hold the downside.

USDJPY: As per my comments last week, I too am bearish this cross and think that rallies need to be faded. Look for 90.30/80 to cap the up side and more sideways action around the 88 base.

AUDUSD: Equally boring and also sideways… Sound familiar? Fade rallies!

USDCAD: Range 1.0750 to 1.0430. Trade it.


Once more I offer apologies for the delay and rather informal content, but as you can no doubt tell by my tone, it’s deathly quiet out there.

This will be the last weekly outlook for 2009 and shall return in January of the new year, until then I will continue with the daily comments until next week.

14/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Karol Piovarcsy, Saxo Bank

KOMODITY
V priebehu poslednych dvoch tyzdnov sme boli svedkami znacneho prepadu cien zlata, dokonca o viac ako 9%. Ostatne komodity sa nachadzaju v podobnom klesajucom trende. Ide o pokles trhu, ktory je charakteristicky pre obdobie Vianoc a konca roka. Medzi hlavne vplyvy patri navrat rizikovych investicii do akciovych trhov, po tom co data z USA nadalej potvrdzuju lepsie ako ocakavane vysledky US ekonomiky. Samozrejme, s tym je spojeny aj posilnujuci USD, ktory je uzko negativne korelovany s komoditnym trhom.

ZLATO
Zlato dnes koriguje svoje minulotyzdnove straty, kde vidime pozitivne signaly dosiahnutia spodnych hranic a pripravy na rast v buducom roku. Za klucove momentalne pokladame hranice okolo 1100 alebo potencialne 1085 USD/u, kde odporucame zlato kupovat.

Vianocne sviatky su charakteristicke nizkou likviditou a vyskou volatilitou. Pre komoditne trhy su typicke fluktuacie cien medzi 10 – 20%. Momentalna nalada na trhu sa vyznacuje zdrzanlivostou velkych hracov, ktori cakaju na potvrdenie sucasnych cien. Ak tento trend potrva, zlato by mohlo tento tyzden oscilovat medzi urovnou 1100 – 1160 USD/u.

ROPA
Okrem posilnujuceho USD cenu ropy tiahnu smerom nadol aj prebytok zasob ropy v USA a rastuca ponuka. Ropna skupina SHELL ziskala minuly tyzden pristup k novym zdrojom irackej ropy, co taktiez potvrdzuje potencial zvysenej ponuky v buducnosti. Ropa sa momentalne pohybuje okolo 70 USD/b. Pokial sa jej podari vratit nad uroven 70, budeme ocakavat pasmo medzi 70 -75 USD/b, avsak pokial ostane pod 70 USD/b, ocakavame dalsi vypredaj.

11 prosince 2009

11/12 Ekonomický komentár

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v ciernych cislach. Hlavnym faktorom bol pokles ziadosti o registraciu nezamestnanych a lepsie udaje o deficite zahranicneho obchodu USA. Tieto dva udaje investorom naznacili, ze ekonomicky rast sa zvysuje.

- Deficit zahranicneho obchodu sa znizil, co bolo zapricinene hlavne slabym USD. Podobne profitovali zo slabuceho USD aj spolocnosti FedEx Corp. a United Parcel Service Inc. vdaka vyraznemu rastu trzieb na zahranicnych trhoch.

- Spolocnost Coca-Cola zhodnotila o 1.3% potom ako oznamila, ze bude znovu predavat svoje vyrobky cez siet najvacsieho svetoveho velkoobchodoneho predajcu Costco, potom ako obe strany vyriesili nezhody ohladne cien.

- Dnesne obchodovanie bude pozitivne ovplyvnene relativne dost dobrymi udajmi o hospodarskom raste ako aj udajmi o priemyselnej produkcii v Cine, ktore boli zverejnene dnes v noci a udajmi o malobchodnych trzbach za mesiac november v USA (mozu urcit smerovanie trhu).

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Ahold, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, BASF, CRH, EDF, Electricidade De., Fortum, GDF Suez, Gropue Bruxelles.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatori): Abertis Infraest.; ACS, Adidas, Air Liquide, Banca Monte Dei., Banco de Sabadel., Banco Popolare, BBVA, Daimler.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup po prelomeni urovne 1105 s cielom na 1110. Stop pod 1101.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup pro prelomeni urovne 5735 s cielom pri 5770. Stop pod 5722.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup po prelomeni urovne 5257 s cielom na 5288. Stop pod 5241.

ROPA
- Obchodovanie s ropou bude pozitivne ovplyvnene relativne dost dobrymi udajmi o hospodarskom raste ako aj udajmi o priemyselnej produkcii v Cine, ktore boli zverejnene dnes v noci.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je pozitivny. Odporucame nakup okolo urovne 71 s cielom na 73.00 USD/barel. Stop pod 70.10.

ZLATO-
Nalada na trhu sa po vyraznom vypredaji zlata minuly piatok pravdepodobne zmeni a mozeme vidiet znovu otestovanie urovne 1170 USD/uncu.

- Hlavny faktor je narast zaujmu o rizikovejsie aktiva a s tym spojeny pokles hodnoty USD.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup okolo urovne 1135 s cielom na 1150 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1129.

ZLATO vyhlad ku koncu roka

- Na zaklade technickych indikatorov sa zlato stale nachadza ovela vyssie ako by malo byt, co vytvara tlak na korekciu. Ta bude zavisiet od zaujmu investorov zrealizovat zisky a uzavriet dlhe pozicie alebo ci budu otvarat nove dlhe pozicie aj nadalej.

- Tradicny koncorocny predaj zlata zo strany centralnych bank a tazobnych spolocnosti neexistuje a prevlada zaujem investorov o zlato ako ochranu pred inflaciou a slabnucim USD.

- Ku koncu roka nevidime vyrazny rast alebo pokles cien zlata, ale skor obchodovanie v pasme 1125-1175 USD/uncu ako pripravu na rast v buducom roku. Velky pohyb smerom dolu, by vsak mohlo sposobit posilnenie USD, kedze na trhu cakat vela kratkych pozici v EURUSD.

STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakukp po prelomeni urovne 17.50 s cielom na 17.70 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.40.

EUR/USD
- Je mozne, ze zaujem o rizikovjesie aktiva sa v najblizsich dnoch vrati na trhy. To by mohlo nastat ked sa bude EURUSD opat obchodovat nad 55 DMA (55-dnovy Denny Klzavy Priemer), momentalne okolo 1.4856.

- Odporucame sledovat dnesne udaje o malobchodnych trzbach za mesiac november v USA, ktore mozu urcit smerovanie trhu.

- Na EURUSD mame negativny vyhlad. Odporucame kratke pozicie pod 1.4760/80. Klucova podporna uroven je okolo 1.4670, po ktore nie je nic zaujimve az ku 1.4500 a nizsie.

11/12 Daily market commentary

Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advsisory, Saxo Bank

And indeed it is a good morning, it’s Friday, the sun is shining (even in Copenhagen, sort of) and the weekend beckons oh and of course there was a raft of fantastic Chinese data overnight.

If you’re anything like me you’ll be taking this with a bucket of salt (the Chinese data I mean), but nonetheless it has given the markets a little bit of a kick in the pants and the risk willingness of market participants has resumed if only a little bit. Asian bourses also lifted a little overnight in what was otherwise a relatively quiet session.

The Cable found somewhat of a bid on the back of Moody’s reassuring the market they weren’t going to downgrade the UK (at least not this week) while everything else pretty much languished in apathy with (for the tenth time this week) everyone slowly winding down to the end of the year.

On the day we are light on the European data front with only the UK PPI out, whereas the US session promises some more interest with Advanced retail sales, Import prices and of course the Uni. Of Michigan survey out. I don’t expect too much more topside in the equities today and think the S&P is likely to top out around the 1112 mark on the day. The DXY seems to have taken a pause on its corrective rally for the time being and this too will perhaps add some excitement to the mix, although don’t put your pillows away just yet.

With regard the crosses today and into early next week, from the top I see the following;

EURUSD: Looking tired and levels to watch are stops above the 1.4750 level with moves into 1.4830 not to be ruled out. Having said that though I firmly believe the risk lies in the downside on this pair and it would not surprise me to see it trade through 1.4620/30 and slowly take us down to the 1.4500’s. In short I am a cautious seller of rallies looking for at the very least more sideways consolidation rather than anything explosive.

GBPUSD: As you should all well know by now I am a Cable bear and nothing has changed. Rallies in this cross offer fresh shorting opportunities, but I warn ahead of time that squeezes higher are on the menu at the moment. I would expect 1.6350 and the associated stops to get taken out today and we could see a print into 1.6380 before the day is out, but again these are just more chances to sell or improve averages. 1.6430 and a close above in the very short term (intraday) to me marks a sit and wait to see where the upside settles.

USDCAD: The old chestnut holds true the trend is your friend and in this instance that trend just happens to be sideways range trading and/or consolidation. With that in mind look for 1.0430 on the downside to buy and the topside is 1.0700/50, but in intraday terms 1.0630/50 is just a good a place to sell as any other.

AUDNZD: I have taken back the bulk of my short in this cross and the trailing stop currently sits just above 1.2630, the downside still has 1.2530 and 1.2470 in sight. While we’re in this neck of the woods, it’s worth mentioning the AUDUSD, which I have been calling lower for some time, rallies are opportunities to fade the strength and moves into 0.9250/0.9300 allow fresh shorts to be established looking for 0.9050.

USDJPY: Remains in my view heavy and the price action of the last week is a dead giveaway. Rallies in this cross are capped into 90.30/80 and I am a firm seller at least for the next week or so. I’m hard pressed to be a buyer but would encourage punters to have a look at the range and make up their own minds.

EURGBP: This cross to me is interesting and in the very short term I feel that a break lower is quite likely. Stops below 0.9030 are primed to be taken out and today is likely to be the day for it, which then takes us into 0.9000 and a nice gap from there sees 0.8975/50 open up. It is here that I begin buying the cross or at the very least looking very closely at it. On the topside 0.9070 marks first resistance and thus far has been formidable, which to me says “hello stops” and the break of this level opens the door for a quick move to 0.9100/20.

That should wrap it up for today, to all a good weekend and as always safe helmet wearing.

10 prosince 2009

10/12 Ekonomický komentář

Připravil Luboš Spousta, Saxo Bank

ZLATO
Zlato dnes opět ztrácí, stále na něj působí posílení dolaru, které očekáváme i dnes. Proto i dnes máme negativní výhled na zlato, když naše stanovisko je prodávat při růstu k 1135 dolarům.

ROPA
Ropa klesla až k 70-ti dolarům. Cenu ropy dnes vedle vývoje dolaru budou ovlivňovat data z US trhů práce, především počáteční žádosti v nezaměstnanosti by mohly negativně překvapit proto je náš náhled na všechna riziková akiva včetně ropy negativní.

EURCZK
Koruna se aktuálně obchoduje za 25,75. Po včerejších datech o HDP a inflaci, které byly podle očekávávní, nedošlo k žádným výrazným posunům. Koruna tak momentálně stagnuje stejně jako ostatní měny v regionu.

10/12 Daily Comment

Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Slightly livelier night last night starting with the afternoon of the US session in which we saw (truthfully not entirely sure why) the greenback come in quite offered for all of 15 minutes and the majors had a small rally higher on the back of this. This was however, short-lived and subsequently the EUR and Cable settled back into familiar ranges.

More interest was held by the moves in the NZD and AUD which for their very own reasons had interesting nights. Starting with the RBNZ which despite leaving rates unchanged (as expected) did have a far more hawkish statement which made it fairly clear that they were going to be moving the tightening bias to sometime in Q2 of next year rather than the previously thought far end of the curve.

This immediately gave the Kiwi a bid tone and we shot strongly higher on the back of it, sending my AUDNZD trade into profit (more on that later). A few hours later we had the employment numbers out of Australia and these were indeed significantly better than expected adding over 100k of new full time jobs and sending the official rate to 5.7% (5.8% exp).

Clearly this also gave the AUD quite a bid tone, but at least in my eyes the cross really failed to make the most of it and right now I still feel that we are indeed in a range on the cross.

With regard my AUDNZD trade I remain short only a small portion of the original trade size and look for 1.2470/50 now for further profit taking.

On the day data wise we have the SNB with official rates, clearly no move but there is the risk that they discuss the notion of removing the extraordinary monetary policy they have been instigating and the CHF moves on the back it. However the immediate risk is that this move strengthens the currency and we see the USDCHF and EURCHF mainly take a short dive….

Otherwise BoE out today and after yesterdays PBR no surprise are left of the table really, they’re in the toilet and those that weren’t sure should be by now. If anything the risk is they raise the QE measures and the Cable sinks even further taking out intermediate support at 1.6170 and taking us lower into the 1.6050 zone.

No comment on the EURUSD today…. It still looks heavy and the market wants to see 1.4620 at least or at least close enough to it.

Good luck out there today…. It’s getting ugly as the festive season and all that goes with it starts to really gain momentum.

09 prosince 2009

9/12 Daily Comment

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Fairly quiet night again overnight, however worth noting is the underperformance in Asian equity markets and the slightly offered tone on US equity indices also. Not surprising in the scheme of things really as more bad news hit the wires over the last 18 hours all of which relating in most part to the down grading of sovereign credit ratings, notably Greece. Equally important in this recent bout of “risk off” were renewed fears on the health of Dubai and its mounting debt problems.

Subsequently we have seen the DXY push to fresh highs as the EUR and Cable were sold off heavily. The only real positive movers were the AUD and NZD dollars. Price action here is a little confusing given the second month in a row of worse than expected consumer sentiment in Australia, I do think though that all of this does need to be taken with a pinch of salt and as far as these currencies are concerned tonight marks crunch time for them as the RBNZ speaks and the Australians have their unemployment data out.

Elsewhere the USDJPY has given back all the gains it made post NFP last week and now continues to look heavy reaching in the interim for the 87.30 support and further out even lower into 86.50. Cable though has been the standout with the downside cleanout being helped along by renewed sovereign debt/rating fears as well as a multitude of stops from a retail market that has been stubbornly long the cross until now. I still think this thing pitches lower and while it may find some very short term support this will only serve as a small short term tech correction before we continue lower.

I target 1.5700 by the end of January. Today we have Darling speaking and giving the preliminary budget report with talk that he’ll be far more verbose today than usual and this could give more impetus for a sell on rallies in the Cable.

The EURUSD is bouncing at the time of print but similarly to the Cable I use this as an opportunity to sell the cross looking for a decisive move towards 1.4620 initial medium term support.

On the USDCAD the price action seems to be erratic at best but I hold off doing anything of real value until we exhaust this move higher into 1.0700/30 and then look to sell all the way back down to 1.0430/50.

All quiet on the western front otherwise at the moment and if nothing else liquidity issues as starting to play a role in the lead up to the year end.

www.saxobank.cz

9/10 Ekonomický komentář

Připravil Luboš Spousta, Saxo Bank

ZLATO
Na zlato stále působí vývoj dolaru, který posiloval a výprodeje investorů, kteří vybírají svoje zisky. Proto máme dnes výhled na zlato negativní, když bychom se mohli podívat až k hranici 1110 dolarů.

ROPA
Vedle vývoje dolaru na ropu působí to, že pod určitým tlakem jsou všechna riziková aktiva například akcie, ale i ropa, proto máme dnes na ropu výhled negativní, když bychom se mohli přiblížit k hranici 70,50.

EURCZK
Koruna se aktuálně obchoduje kolem 25,71, když včera byla pod tlakem jako všechny měny v regionu a dnešní data o HDP a inflaci dopadla podle očekávání.

www.saxobank.cz

08 prosince 2009

Daily comment

Slightly whippy night last night in large part thanks to comments from Bernanke. Although of interest is the fact that he didn’t actually say anything new, instead simply reiterating his low rates for an extended period comments that he’s been singing for the last 6 months or so. However in a market that is still doing its best to recover from the events on Friday it was enough to give the greenback an offered tone and squeeze out a market which is at best undecided on further direction. We saw the USD sold off across the board for about 20 minutes and the EURUSD squeezed about 80pips as a result. All in all the price action was short-lived and quickly settled back into the rhythm that we saw all day yesterday.

We had data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight that beat street expectations, but only by a small margin, which means that my short AUDNZD remains in no man’s land, but fingers crossed is on the verge of breaking lower.

On the day the only real data of note is the UK Industrial production data and the BOC decision. Neither of which is likely to prove to be market moving or earth shattering. Worth looking at though is the 1.6325 level in Cable which is broken opens the door to 1.6270/80 and lower, however this level has been well protected already this morning so…..

Kenneth Veksler

07 prosince 2009

Weekly Outlook

The world looks like a decisively different place this morning and I can assure you none of it has to do with the monster hangover I dealt with all day yesterday after the bank’s Christmas party on Saturday night. What I am referring to is the market’s reaction to the NFP data out of the US on Friday afternoon. Now I have never been one for conspiracy theories but something in my view is certainly rotten in the state of Denmark. I refer specifically to 3 independent factors that together make me think that there is more to this number than at first meets the eye, in chronological order they are:

1. A White House comment/statement made on the eve of the report purporting that the data will be staggeringly better than previous releases (bare in mind that no such statement had ever been made)
2. The data is released 30 seconds too early, taking the market a little by surprise.
3. And finally of course the number itself! How does that happen? How does such a major reversal of fortune occur, seemingly overnight?

Anyway you paint this thing there is clearly something wrong and of course the ensuing price action confirmed just this. Now I know I’ve spoken about the correlation matrix previously and the fact that risk and USD have been inversely correlated for nearly 18 months now, but we saw a massive decoupling of this relationship on Friday and to a smaller degree a continuation this morning. While I welcome this movement I am not entirely ready to ring in the changes as being permanent. If you look at the IMM positioning as of the close of last week you may just get a feel for why the market has moved the way it has, in fact simply cleaning out record short USD positions.

So the obvious question is where to from here, honestly I don’t really know. Year end is fast approaching and moves are going to become even more erratic as the obvious liquidity and holiday issues begin to play a bigger part. My conservative advice is to start saving your pennies for next year and limit yourself to fundamental moves should you be able to find them. For the record I favor the following for the week ahead:

AUDNZD: Still short, still waiting.
GBPUSD: Still short, counting my profit.
USDCAD: Waiting to sell on rallies into 1.07/0800
USDJPY: Seller into 90.30/80 with stops above 91.30.

On the data front it is central bank focus all the way with the likes of Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland and England all announcing official cash rates this week. Of these most interest and potential market movement will come on the back of the SNB and quite possibly Canada so as per the above comments look to sell the rally in the USDCAD.

04 prosince 2009

4/12 Watch out for Non-farm payrolls this afternoon (daily comment)

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory

Feeling a little more subdued this morning and quite happy that it's Friday, and better still a Friday that features the NFP numbers this afternoon. All in all that simply means that a market which was deathly quiet overnight will continue in the same vein until this afternoon when the market gets all giddy with nervous anticipation waiting to find out just how deep in the proverbial toilet the US really is.

Estimates on the street are pointing to a smaller (better) number on the actual change, but also a worse number on the overall official rate rising towards 10.3/4%. I (surprisingly even for me) expect a rather flat number and somewhat of an anticlimax to the whole event.

I think the rate will stay around the same level while the number might actually print a larger positive than the market anticipates (chances are though this will be eroded with revisions).

It really is all quiet on the western front otherwise, as the market is in no rush to commit to anything really fundamental relating to FX moves and the equity markets are running out of puff but still showing a bid tone coming into year end.

With regard the majors I see the following unfold into the weekend and perhaps into the early parts of next week;

USDJPY: It seems like the jawboning continues out of the officials down there, but for a change there seems to be some (if not limited) back up to it in the form of additional liquidity being thrown into the system. They claim this isn’t the end of it but until I see anything more firm I believe that further Yen weakness is limited and what we’ve seen so far t his week is simply a small clean out. We need to see 90.30/80 cleared and closed above on a daily basis to confirm that this intermediate downtrend is in fact over. I remain skeptical and therefore bearish the cross, sell rallies is the call and don’t be shy about scaling in. Targets remain the previous lows into 85.00

GBPUSD: I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today the Cable trades a range and I am a seller of the Cable strength into 1.6750/6800 targets on the bottom end are 1.6550 and 1.6470. It worked yesterday and believe it will continue to work, a seemingly easy way to earn approximately 1.75% on the move. The only cautionary note is that while it is indeed a range, I only play the sell side, as I fundamentally believe that the risk is for a breakout from 1.6470 into at least 1.6250.

EURUSD: This puppy is running out of puff, but having said that as I have maintained all week, pullbacks may prove to be deeper than anticipated into 1.4850, but even these provide good opportunities to gear up again into fresh longs with the topside limited into 1.5160/5200.

AUDUSD: Topside is limited at 0.9330/60 and I fade the move higher looking for retracements into 0.9150 and lower. There is plenty of hype around this cross, but being Australian myself I am naturally hesitant to believe it all or get caught up in the euphoria.

USDCAD: The good thing about coming into year end is that without any real commitment from market participants crosses naturally fall into ranges, and in the case of the USDCAD there is no exception I still sell 1.0700/0800 and buy it back at 1.0430/50. Not unlike the Cable though I only play this range from the short side.

To all I say a good weekend and safe helmet wearing.

4/12 Ekonomický komentář

Pripravil Luboš Spousta, Saxo Bank

ZLATO se dnes po několika dnech, kdy pravidelně každé ráno zdolávalo nové rekordy, drží kolem 1210ti dolarů.

Dnesni vyhled na zlato mame negativni. V prvni rade dnes ocekavame posileni dolaru, coz by melo byt pro zlato podporou a pak samozrejme ani zlato nemuze nepretrzite rust a po tech narustech se jevilo jiz jako prekoupene.


ROPA se stále drží hladiny 77mi dolarů.

I na ropu mame dnes negativni vyhled. Jako zasadni vidime predevsim ohlaseni dat z trhu prace, kde ocekavame negativni prekvapeni a proto pokles rizikovych aktiv vcetne ropy, proto by se mohla ropa podrzet pod 77 dolary

EURCZK
Koruna tento týden posiluje s růstem rizikových aktiv aktuálně až na hranici 25,78.

03 prosince 2009

3/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Dow Jones uzavrel mierne nizsie, ked 2% prepad cien ropy stiahol so sebou akcie Exxon Mobil Corp. a Chevron Corp. JPMorgan Chase & Co. poklesla na zaklade neistoty spojenej so zmenami pravidiel obchodovania s derivatmi, ktore by mohli znizit prijmy z tychto obchodov.

- Mozna strategia pre dnesny den: Nakupy po poklesoch pred zverejnenim udajov o nezmestnanosti a nasledne uzatvaranie dlhych pozicii pred zverejnenim udajov o ISM Non-Manufacturing.

- Vysvetlenie: Kedze minuly tyzden bol kratky a nezamestnani mali len tri dni na registraciu, tak udaje by mohli byt lepsie, co by mohlo podporit rast akciovych trhov podobne ako aj informacia o tom, ze Bank of America splati 45 mld. USD vladnej pomoci (program TARP) co by mohlo znamenat, ze BoA ma dobry cashflow. Na druhej strane ocakavame horsie udaje o ISM Non-Manufacturing, co by mohlo znamenat korekciu.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1111 s cielom na 1120. Stop pod 1107.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5771 s cielom pri 5834. Stop pod 5730.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5322 s cielom na 5371. Stop pod 5300.

ROPA
- Ropa sa posunula na nizsie urovne po vcerajsom zverejneni vyssich zasob tejto suroviny (zverejnene 2091K vs. -400K ocakavane)

- Vyvoj cien je stale pod vplyvom nejednoznacnosti ekonomickeho ozivenia a mozneho konca recesie.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 77.10 s cielom na 79.00 USD/barel. Stop pod 76.10.

ZLATO-
Zlato sa posunulo na rekordne urovne okolo 1221 USD/uncu ako alternativa k USD.

- Je vela investorov a spekulantov, ktori sa pozeraju na zlato ako ochranu pred slabnucim USD, ale je potrebne si uvedomit, ze svetove zasoby tohto kovu nie su neobmedzene.

- Vyvoj cien zlata bude aj do buducna vo velkej miere zavisie na vyvoji USD.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1213 s cielom na 1223 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1210.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj po prelomeni urovne 19.09 s cielom na 18.88 USD/uncu. Stop nad 19.17.

EUR/USD
- Obchodovanie s EURUSD by dnes malo byt v znameni udajov z Eurozony. O 13:45 (SEC) ocakavame vyhlasenie ECB o urokovych sadzbach a o 14:30 (SEC) bude mat prejav prezident ECB Jean-Claude Trichet.

- Dalsie udaje, ktore ovplyvnia obchodovanie: EU: Composite PMI (10:00), Odhad HDP (11:00), Maloobchodne trzby (11:00).

- Obchodovanie s tymto parom bude pocas dna velmi volatilne.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Uroven 1.5145 by mala zostat ako horna hranica aspon nateraz. Doporucujeme obchodovanie v pasme 1.5065-1.5140 a doporucujem nakup po prelomeni tohto pasma s cielom na 1.5220 EURUSD.

EUR/CZK -
Obchodovanie s CZK bude ovplyvnene nizkou likviditou na trhu. Ako sme si mali moznost vsimnut aj vcera – nizka likvidita, velke kurzove pohyby.

- Dnes nebudu zverejene ziadne ekonomicke udaje. Nevidime velky priestor na posilnenie CZK.

- Rezistencia je na 26.24 a podporna uroven na 25.75-25.80 EURCZK.

USD/CAD-
Je pravdepodobne, ze export stavebneho dreva z Kanady do Ciny sa zvysi, kedze v Shanghaii zacal platit stavebny kodex pre stavby z dreva. To by spolu s podporou novych stavieb mohlo pomoct posunut CAD pod paritu s USD.

3/12 Daily Comment

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory

Today promises to be an important day not so much as a result of the raft of data we have ahead, but more so because several crosses and indices are at the precipice of either breaking major levels or staging significant retracements of recent gains.

In detail on the data front we have the ECB out and of most interest will be what (if anything) they decide to do on the 1yr refinance rate. Any mention of an increase in the price or alternatively a shortening of the loan duration window will send the EURUSD into a hissy fit of unbridled volatility, and my money firmly sits on stops being taken out at the 1.5125/30 level and a strong drive into 1.5165, from there expect some serious profit taking into 1.5050/30. But as I said it will be volatile out there today folks.

On the USDJPY we took out the much anticipated stops above the 87.50 level and got 87.90 on the move. The cross still looks bid but I prefer to fade the move and sell on rallies looking for stops to be placed above 88.30. There should be an orderly (read as boring) move back into 87.20/00 over the course of the remaining week.

We also have the initial and continuing claims out of the US today, and truly expect a mixed bag that will most likely leave the market a little confused, the timing of the release isn’t helped by coinciding with the Trichet press conference.

Euro zone GDP will also be worth keeping an eye on, although at first glance I would think that any negative sentiment expressed in the EURUSD as a result should be used as an opportunity to initiate spec longs.

The AUDUSD is in my view approaching the spot where I would think about starting to fade the rally and I am a seller into 0.9330/50, I think this market is due a squeeze and small clean out.

And finally the Cable is also looking overbought and I look at scaling into shorts between 1.6730 and 1.6825, stops above 1.6865 and limits around 1.6550 and 1.6470. Obviously this is not an intraday trade, but one worth looking at a little closer as this thing is simply now trading a sideways range.

02 prosince 2009

2/12 Daily Comment

Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).

However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.

In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.

We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.

Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.

Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.

On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.

01 prosince 2009

1/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Karol Piovarcsy, Saxo Bank

KOVY
Svetove trhy pochytila chut k riziku, ktora sa preniesla najma do obchodovania na komoditnych trhoch. Z hladiska investovania su tieto trhy vhodnym prostriedkom pre diverzifikaciu portfolia a rovnako sluzia aj ako ochrana voci padu USD. Dnes vidime potencial rast k hodnote $1192/tr.uncu.
Obchodovanie tento tyzden sa vsak bude niest v ocakavani Non.Farm payrolls, ktore budu vyhlasene v piatok.

ZLATO
Za posledne tri mesiace zlato stuplo o viac ako 17 percent. Rast dopytu po tejto komodite ukazuje nielen priama cena zlata. Prudko rastie aj cena prepravy, co znamena ze nejde len o operacie financnych trhov, ale ide aj o silny zaujem o fyzicke dodavky, najma zo strany rozvijajucich sa trhov. Ocakavame, ze najblizsi mesiac bude pomerne volatilny, co bude aj dosledkom slavenia vianocnych sviatkov, pocas ktorych zvycajne dochadza k ubytku likvidity. V buducich mesiacoch vsak ocakavame rastuci trend, v ktorom zlato moze otestovat $1300/tr.uncu.


ROPA

Reralny dopyt po rope a energiach je nadalej slaby, no ocakavania investorov udrzuju ropu stale v mierne rastucom pasme. Pokial sa ropa udrzi nad urovnou $75/barrel, vidime potencial dalsieho rastu.

1/12 Daily Market Commentary

Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

Interesting news and movements overnight led by two factors out of the APAC region. First cab off the rank was the RBA which as the market had already priced in hiked rates by another 25bps (for what was historically the third consecutive month in a row). However this news coupled with a relatively dovish (neutral) accompanying comment and worse than expected building approval data meant that the AUDUSD was quickly sold off on the back of the release and has since then failed to really come back and leave any positive impression on the market.

I remain bearish the cross and look for spikes especially into year end towards 0.9330/50 as good opportunities to sell with what I believe a range of 0.8850/90 to 0.9250 being established into January.

Otherwise we had the BOJ call for an extraordinary meeting at which the idea of emergency QE was being touted with more liquidity measures to be added. Not to be forgotten the topic of a weaker Yen was also on everyone’s lips and that dirty word “intervention” was bandied around quite a bit too.

The long and short of it is that there will be an official press conference at 8am London time today to shed more light on the topic. Initially we had USDJPY spike fairly strongly tot eh tune of a big figure hitting natural supply at the 87.50 level. I still feel that this level should hold for now unless we actually see definitive measures being adopted by the bank. If we do then be assured there are significant stop orders sitting all the way between 87.50 and 87.80/90 which if triggered could see us run another 75bps quite quickly.

On the day we are a little data heavy and the Euro zone leads the charge with unemployment and PMI numbers. The market is currently relatively bullish but I personally think we’ll be seeing a worse unemployment rate printed which could halt the EURUSD progress in its tracks around resistance at 1.5065/70. A break here (unlikely) would take us back (slowly) to 1.5130.

We also have US data in the form of ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending, the ISM number here is of most importance, but as always risk appetite dictates the USD direction.

For your guide I remain short the AUDNZD and now look for 1.2670 to break to confirm the appropriateness of this trade.

And finally as a side note I believe it’s worth keeping an eye on the GBPCAD which has now definitely broken 1.7390 and is firmly setting its sights lower.

www.saxobank.cz

1/12 Daily Market Commentary

Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

Interesting news and movements overnight led by two factors out of the APAC region. First cab off the rank was the RBA which as the market had already priced in hiked rates by another 25bps (for what was historically the third consecutive month in a row).

However this news coupled with a relatively dovish (neutral) accompanying comment and worse than expected building approval data meant that the AUDUSD was quickly sold off on the back of the release and has since then failed to really come back and leave any positive impression on the market. I remain bearish the cross and look for spikes especially into year end towards 0.9330/50 as good opportunities to sell with what I believe a range of 0.8850/90 to 0.9250 being established into January.

Otherwise we had the BOJ call for an extraordinary meeting at which the idea of emergency QE was being touted with more liquidity measures to be added. Not to be forgotten the topic of a weaker Yen was also on everyone’s lips and that dirty word “intervention” was bandied around quite a bit too.

The long and short of it is that there will be an official press conference at 8am London time today to shed more light on the topic. Initially we had USDJPY spike fairly strongly tot eh tune of a big figure hitting natural supply at the 87.50 level. I still feel that this level should hold for now unless we actually see definitive measures being adopted by the bank. If we do then be assured there are significant stop orders sitting all the way between 87.50 and 87.80/90 which if triggered could see us run another 75bps quite quickly.

On the day we are a little data heavy and the Euro zone leads the charge with unemployment and PMI numbers. The market is currently relatively bullish but I personally think we’ll be seeing a worse unemployment rate printed which could halt the EURUSD progress in its tracks around resistance at 1.5065/70. A break here (unlikely) would take us back (slowly) to 1.5130.

We also have US data in the form of ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending, the ISM number here is of most importance, but as always risk appetite dictates the USD direction.

For your guide I remain short the AUDNZD and now look for 1.2670 to break to confirm the appropriateness of this trade.

And finally as a side note I believe it’s worth keeping an eye on the GBPCAD which has now definitely broken 1.7390 and is firmly setting its sights lower.

30 listopadu 2009

30/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank

ROPA
Zostava stale po vplyvom nie velmi vyrazneho ekonomickeho ozivenia a pokracujom raste nezamestnanosti v USA. Mierne posuny v cene zapricinuje postoj investorov k riziku a a celkovo vyvoj cien komodit. Obchodovanie vidime stale v pasme 75-80.00 USD/barel.

Dnes mame na ropu mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Doporucujeme nakup po prelomeni urovne 76.70 s cielom na 78.50 USD/barel. Stop pod 75.75.

ZLATO
Zlato sa posunulo mierne nizsie pocas piatkoveho obchodovania, co bolo zapricinene posilnenim USD.

V priebehu tyzdna by zlato malo profitovat z oslabenia USD a posunut sa vyssie urovne. Nevylucujeme vsak korekciu k urovniam 1120 – 1100 USD/uncu s naslednym posunom na 1300 v priebehu nasledujucich tyzdnov.

Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujem nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1165 s cielom na 1180 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1158.

Zlato v priebehu posledneho mesiaca atakovalo urovne okolo 1195 USD/uncu. Hlavnym dovodom bolo vyrazne oslabenie USD co bolo zapricinene moznostou vykonavania tzv. Carry Trade obchodov, spekulaciami ako aj diverzifikaciou aktiv niektorymi centralnymi bankami.

Investori si poziciavaju peniaze v mene s nizkymi urokmi (USD), nasledne predavaju USD a investuju do vynosnejsich nedolarovych aktiv. To vedie k velkemu vypredaju USD a jeho oslabeniu.

Zlato predstavovalo v minulom mesiaci vybornu ochranu proti slabnucemu USD co potvrdzuje aj jeho zhodnotenie.


STRIEBRO
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 18.00 s cielom na 17.75 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.10.

www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk

30/11 Weekly comment

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Trader, Saxo Bank

Last week came to an interesting end and this week promises to offer similar if not slightly more subdued price action. The excitement all stemmed from thin liquidity while the American’s were stuffing themselves full of turkey and Dubai was slowly sinking under the weight of the Palm’s development and mounting unserviceable debt. Neither event should come as a shock to anyone (definitely not the former), at least not to anyone that has a concept of global macroeconomic developments.

Most people should have at least been aware if not entirely wary of the fact that the cranes in Dubai have stood still and silent for almost 9 months now with life practically coming to a standstill in what was going to be the fastest developing economic zone/region of the world.

The lonely emirate was caught up in all the excitement of an overheating economy and decided that now was the time to capitalize and begin massive capital works projects including building the world’s biggest airport to service the hordes of people they were expecting to come through the nation in the coming years.

But as we all know things took a definitive nosedive and understandably this demand that they had counted on had waned significantly, so it should come as no surprise (although clearly on Thurs/Fri it did) that things we going to fall down sooner or later. Things were further complicated not only by thin liquidity and nervous markets not wanting to give away gains made over the last 9 months but also a religious holiday in the region that left no one minding the shop front and able to offer any comment on the issue. Understandably risk firmly fell off the menu and the greenback made a stellar recovery…..

We walk in this morning to the tune of overnight news from the UAE that they will not let the tiny sovereign nation fail and in fact have heard pledges from the UAE central bank regarding helping with liquidity and evaluating on an ad hoc basis the need to cover the odd monthly payment in order to help Dubai out. Shock me! And of course everything has come back in on the news meaning that the greenback is sold off once more (hello risk, my old friend), Dubai CDS have tightened by a factor of about 10% and the markets now look for the ominous month end fixing due later this afternoon.

The week ahead….

Well in a nut shell I expect more volatility, this time however it will focus on data/event risk rather than American’s on holiday or nations’ reneging on debt payments. Otherwise for the most part it should be business as usual, the S&P will slowly grind its way towards 1121, the EURUSD will move accordingly but will be rejected on first attempt at 1.5150/60 and the DXY will very likely look for the lows it found recently.

Data wise as noted above we’re going to be fairly busy this week and the highlights include;

Monday: CAD GDP
Euro Zone CPI

Tuesday: RBA Rate decision (market is 60% pricing in another 25bps)
US ISM Manufacturing

Thursday: ECB Rate decision
UK PMI
Euro zone GDP

Friday: US NFP
CAD Unemployment

So I hear you all ask, what’s my view on the majors? Well I’m glad you asked because here it is;

EURUSD: As noted above this thing is still a buy on dips but I warn of deeper corrections, happy to start averaging in longs from 1.4950 down to 1.4830, looking for 1.5164

GBPUSD: Still a sell on rallies and even these rallies are beginning to finally look tired. 1.6700/50 presents great selling and I look for a return to 1.6250.

USDJPY: Still looks ugly and anything into 87.00/50 is just begging to get hit. No matter the amount of verbal intervention the JPY government is still not prepared to do anything and while this is the case the cross is going looking for 85 and perhaps even lower.

AUDUSD: Strange to keep repeating myself but I sell the cross on rallies into the safety of the previously rejected zone around 0.9300/50 and recommend trading the range looking to pick it back up into 0.9000.

EURGBP: Despite what I wrote above and intuitively you would expect this cross higher, but I suggest keeping an eye on it this week as I think 0.9190/00 marks solid enough resistance to see this thing correct short term into 0.9050.

USDCAD: Looks healthy if you enjoy playing a range based on good macro rationale. 1.0700/50 is great selling territory as I noted late last week and traders should look for the bottom of the range 1.0450/80 to fix profits.

GBPCHF: I remain short half of original position and look to fade the move lower probably closing out the rest of the position gradually looking for 1.6420/50 as the average for profit taking.

AUDNZD: Those following my commentaries will be aware that I am now short this cross at an average of 1.2755 and look for the move below 1.2670 to confirm my suspicions.

www.saxobank.cz

27 listopadu 2009

27/11 Daily Comment

Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

The world has turned on its ear overnight and its all down to one very important story that has by my estimations been blown a little out of proportion. Clearly everyone has heard and read about the Dubai debt fears and this sentiment has completely taken out any enthusiasm in the risk markets for now. This story couple with thin liquidity on the back of an absent US market and yearend profit fixing after tremendous equity market growth is leading to massive sell off’s across the board.

All the usual suspects in terms of risk currencies are suffering and without going into extended detail now is definitely not the time to panic. Only one thing can in some part allay current fears and that is an official comment of some sort out of Dubai.

Problem here though is the fact that that part of the world is in the middle of their most religious holiday period and no such statement is going to be forthcoming any time too soon. In equity terms we need 1062/65 to hold on the S&P for any semblance of risk appetite returning in the coming days otherwise we’ll quickly be down at 1042/30 and looking a whole lot worse.

A quick rundown of overnight action in the majors looks a little like this:

USDJPY: HORRIBLE! This pair continues lower and is now looking for 84.70 having traded as low as 84.90 overnight. Natural supply comes in at 86.50. No amount of jawboning is helping this cross and despite best efforts to scare the market into thinking of mass global intervention the Japanese government is powerless to do anything.

USDCAD: Trades to the upper end of the recent downward corridor helped in large part to gold gapping and oil following suit. I am still a seller (cautiously albeit) into 1.0800 with stops about 1% above looking for an orderly if not boring return into 1.0550/0480.

EURUSD: This thing is looking for and will soon find 1.4750 at which point I would think long and hard about initiating any new longs.

AUDNZD: Despite last night’s mess, this cross and my short are looking ok for now and continue to consolidate (run out of steam) on the top end.

GBPUSD: Refer below, but in short this thing is still a massive sell on rallies.

Of all those exposed most heavily to Dubai, the UK is worst off (refer below) and that in a major way explains the Cable decline overnight not least of which coupled with the broad based gains in the greenback overnight. Looking at the Dollar index we have recovered major losses and are now looking to press the top end of the recent downward channel in this index.

Gold also took a hit this morning gapping the better part of $20 with major stops being taken out of an overextended long market. Next target to the downside here 1125/30 and I must admit I have it firmly in my sights in the next 48 hours.

The view for the day is to stay the hell out of trouble and avoid the carnage that is presently the market. This thing is not over yet and the dust will only potentially begin to settle early next week.

European banks exposure to United Arab Emirates Billion of USD as of June 2009
Total 87.3

UK
49.5
France
11.3
Germany
10.2
Netherlands
4.7
Switzerland
4.3
Italy
1.9
Belgium
1.3
US
9.9
Japan
8.6

27/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy boli pre sviatok Thanksgiving uzavrete. Obchodovanie pocas dnesneho dna bude prebiehat iba dopoludnia lokalneho casu.

- Vcerajsi pokles na svetovych akciovych trhoch bol zapricineny informaciami o problemoch vladou vlastnenej spolocnosti Dubai World, ktora ma tazkosti splacat uvery vo vyske 59 mld. USD a snazi sa o dohodu o odlozeni splatok. Tieto informacie vzhladom na nizku likviditu na trhu mali vyznamny vplyv a viedli k zvyseniu rizikovych premii pri investovani na rozvijajucich sa trhoch (tzv. Emerging Markets).

- Neistota okolo Dubai World by nemala mat vyznamny vplyv svetove trhy, kedze ide o realativne maly objem prostriedkov. Na druhej vyvolava urcitu neistotu, ale kedze celkovo azijske ekonomiky maju dobre fundamenty, tak by vplyv mal byt limitovany.

- Finacny sektor zaznamenal pokles vedeny hlavne britskymi bankami, ktore poskytli najvacsi objem uverov Dubai World.

- Klucova trendova podporna uroven, ktora pravdepodobne bude dnes otestovana vytvori velmi dobre vstupny bod pre otvorenie dlhych pozicii. Je to 1063 pre S&P500, 5500 pre DAX, 1.4813 pre EURUSD a 1166 pre zlato.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup okolo urovne 1056 s cielom na 1074. Stop pod 1060.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup okolo urovne 5500 s cielom pri 5553. Stop pod 5489.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup okolo urovne 5082 s cielom na 5140. Stop pod 5068.

ROPA -
Neistota ohladne situaciou okolo Dubai World a s nou spojene posilnenie USD posunulo ceny ropy na nizsie urovne.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 75.00 s cielom na 73.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 76.00.

ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny. Zatial este neodporucame nakupy po poklesoch. Ak by posuny na nizsie urovne pokracovali je mozne, ze budeme testovat uroven 1131 USD/uncu.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 18.35 s cielom na 18.10 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.50.

EUR/USD -
Dnesne udaje ekonomicke udaje z Eurozony budu mat druhorady vplyv na obchodovanie. Odporucame opatrnost, kedze na trhu je nizka likvidita a US trhy este „nestravili“ vcerajsie udalosti spojene s neschopnostou Dubai World splacat svoje dlhy nacas.

- Na EURUSD mame neutralny vyhlad. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklese smerom ku 1.4800 s cielom na 1.4900 EURUSD. Stop pod 1.4790.

EUR/CZK -
Trhy su ovplyvnene viac negativnymi spravami ako pozitivnymi. CZK je pod tlakom pretrvavajucim z neistoty okolo Dubai World.

- Vyrazny posun na vyssie urovne by mohol byt moznostou pre zrealizovanie casti ziskov z dlhych EURCZK pozicii.

- Rezistencia je na 26.62 a podporna uroven na 26.087 EURCZK.

www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk

26 listopadu 2009

26/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY
- Akciove trhy ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie v ciernych cislach podporene zverejnenymi lepsimi datami o predaji domov, spotrebitelskej dovere a ziadostiam o podporu v nezamestnanosti. Tu je dolezite uvedomit si, ake vyznamne su udaje o spotrebitelskej dovere v US ekonomike, kedze 70% US HDP je zalozeneho na spotrebe. Inymi slovami, cim vyssia spotreba v USA, vacsia sanca na ekonomicke ozivenie po celom svete.

- Rast bol limitovany informaciami o problemoch vladou vlastnenej spolocnosti Dubai World, ktora ma tazkosti splacat uvery vo vyske 59 mld. USD a snazi sa o dohodu o odlozeni splatok.

- Klucova rezistencia pre S&P500 je 1114 a 5843 pre DAX.

- Doporucujeme predaje po narastoch, kedze na trhoch je potrebna urcita konsolidacia a kvoli nizkej likvidite nebudu mat obchodnici zaujem o prelomenie dolezitych urovni.

- Na US trhoch sa neobchoduje kvoli sviatku Thanksgiving.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5784 s cielom na 5744. Stop nad 5826.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5349 s cielom na 5318. Stop nad 5346.

ROPA -
Ceny ropy vzrastli o takmer 2 USD po zverejneni udajov, ze dopyt po rope rastol uz druhy tyzden po sebe. Zasoby ropy boli zverejnene na urovni 1019k vs. 1500k ocakavanych.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 77.50 s cielom na 75.50 USD/barel. Stop nad 78.20.

ZLATO-
Zlato rastlo k novym maximam podporene dopytom po aktivach poskytujucich ochranu pred slabnucim USD.

- Zlatu pomohli taktiez informacie o tom, ze India by mohla kupit dalsie zlato od IMF. Po precitani si tychto informacii sa zda, ze centralne banky prestavaju verit USD a nakupuju zlato (tu s jedna o prirodzenu diverzifikaciu zo strany centralnych bank), ale treba si uvedomit, ze IMF je nuteny predavat svoje zlate rezervy aby mal dostatok hotovosti na poskytovanie uverov.

- Zlato je o 34% vyssie od zaciatku roku.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je negativny. Odporucame zrealizovat zisky na dlhych poziciach.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 18.48 s cielom na 18.20 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.70.

EUR/USD -
Vcerajsie oslabenie USD sa neda pripisat lepsim eknomickym udajom z USA. Jedine vysvetlenie bola nizka likvidita na trhu, na ktoru sme vcera upozornovali ako aj spekulacie, ze objem USD Carry trades moze este narast.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1.5100 s cielom na 1.5000 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.5150.

EUR/CZK -
Vyvoj zavisi od postoja investorov k riziku, obchodovania na akciovych trhoch a vyvoja EURUSD.

- Pokles EURCZK zostava stale limitovany.

- Podnikatelska dovera ako aj nalada spotrebitelov zaznamenali narast, ale este su stale vyznamne nizsie ako pred krizou.

- Podnitalsky sektor bude este celit problemom s postupnym pomalym ozivenim, zatial co spotrebitelia sa budu musiet vysporiadat s rastucou nezamestnanostou.

- Rezistencia je na 26.65 a podporna uroven na 25.75 EURCZK.

www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk

26/11 Daily commentary

Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving central banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.

Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.

It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.

Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?

Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.

America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.

I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.

Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.

23 listopadu 2009

23/11 Ekonomický komentář

Připravil Radim DOhnal, Saxo Bank

Zlato
Zlato nadále láme rekordy, myšleno cena jedné trojské unce v dolarech. Právě to, že je cena vyjádřena v dolarech, znamená, že slabší dolar vykazuje dražší zlato. Poslední dny jsou ve ze znamení pokračujících obav o budoucnost dolaru znamená dražší zlato i stříbro. V pondělí dopoledne se dostalo až ba 1165, čímž velmi rychle překonalo náš cíl pro pondělí.

Ropa
Cena ropy je nadále tažená očekáváním zlepšující se ekonomické situace rozvíjejících se trhů Asie, kde nadále panuje vysoká energetická náročnost a také oslabujícím dolarem, což jde ruku v ruce. Pro pondělí jsme na ropu pozitivně naladěni, čekáme posilování k úrovni 80 USD/barel.

www.saxobank.cz

20 listopadu 2009

20/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank


AKCIE

Americke akciove trhy boli negativne ovplyvnene obavami, ze ich rast predbehol vyhliadky na ozivenie ekonomiky.

- Kedze buduci tyzden vo stvrtok je v USA Thanksgiving Day a v piatok sa burzy uzavru o 13.00 NY casu, je mozne ze investori budu uzatvarat svoje pozicie a realizovat zisky. Nasledne by sme mohli vidiet narast pred Vianocnymi sviatkami.

- Dnes neocakavame ziadne vyznamne data zo ziadnej zo stran Atlantiku.

- Zostavame pozitivne naladeni na rizikovejsie aktiva a nas ciel je S&P500 na urovni 1121.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1090 s cielom na 1102. Stop pod 1085.

ROPA
- Pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania sme boli svedkami poklesu zaujmu o rizikovejsie aktiva co bolo vyvolane vlnou znizovania ratingov a odhadovanymi horsimi vysledkami niektorych spolocnosti. Pokles na akciovych trhoch nasledne vyvolal pokles aj cien ropy.

- Pocas azijskeho obchodovania sa trhy mierne korigovali, co by malo pokracovat aj pocas obchodovania v Europe. Kedze dnes neocakavame vyznamnejsie makrodata, obchodovanie by malo by pokojne.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Vidime priestor pre dalsi pokles. Rezistencna uroven sa nachadza na 78.65 USD/barel. Kratkodoby ciel pri obchodovani vidime na 76.00.


ZLATO-
Zlato sa posuva na vyssie urovne aj vdaka vyssiemu dopytu spotrebitelov v Cine. Cina bola jediny trh kde rastol dopyt po zlatych sperkoch v 3Q. Na druhej strane sa dopyt na tradicnych trhoch v Indii a na Strednom Vychode vyrazne prepadol.

- Na trhoch vidiet zaujimavu situaciu, ked akciove trhy ako aj ceny zlata rastu, co je velmi nezvycajne. Skor alebo neskor pride ku korekcii a my si myslime ze to budu akcie, ktore sa posunu na nizsie urovne.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny.Vidime konsolidaciu v pasme 1140 -1150 USD/uncu.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je neutralny. Kratkodoba rezistencia je na urovni 18.60. V pripade posunu vyssie, by sme smerovali ku 18.80. Ak nie, tak obchodovanie by mohlo zostat v pasme 18.20-18.60 USD/uncu.

EUR/USD -
Celkovo sa pasmo, v ktorom sa obchoduje EURUSD ztensuje. Vzhladom na chybajuce makrodata by obchodovanie malo byt ovplyvnene len zaujmom/nezaujmom o rizikovejsie aktiva.

- Ani vsak horsia nalada na akciovych trh, by nemala pomoct USD vyrazne zhodnotit.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavane, ze narast by mal zostat na urovni 1.4935, alebo maximalne na 1.4975, pred poklesom ku 1.4845-50 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.5015.

19 listopadu 2009

19/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie poklesm z 13-mesacnych maxim na zaklade predpovedi o horsich hospodarskych vysledkov technologickych firiem Autodesk Inc. a Salesforce.com Inc .

- Negativne posobia aj udaje z trhu nehnutelnosti v USA kde tzv. Housing starts (nove zacate stavby domov) poklesli o 11% na mesacnej baze. Tento jav sposobili spekulacie o nepredlzeni danovych ulav pre prvokupcov domov a len potvrdilo ako je trh nehnutelnosti zavisly od vladnej podpory ozivenia pri stale rastucej nezamestnanosti.

- Dnes budu zverejnene udaje o malobchodnych trzbach (ocakavame narast), Leading Indicators (ocakavame pokles)a Philadelphia Fed. Index (ocakavame narast). Vsetky z uvedenych budu mat vplyv na pohyby na trhoch.

- Zostavame pozitivne naladeni na rizikovejsie aktiva a nas ciel je S&P500 na urovni 1121.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1114. Stop pod 1100.

ROPA
- Po vcerajsom zverejneni nizsich zasob ropy a paliv ako aj nizsej produkcie rafinerii a dovozu ropy do USA sa ceny posunuli na vyssie urovne.

- Cena zemneho plynu poklesla o viac ako 6% kedze mierne pocasie znizuje dopyt po vykurovacich olejoch a palivach.

- Dnes mame na ropu neutralny vyhlad. Ceny sa dotykaju trendovej rezistencnej urovne 79.90. Dnesne obchodovanie vidime v pasme 79 - 80.00 USD/barel.

ZLATO
- Zlato sa pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania opat posunulo na nove maxima na urovni okolo 1152 USD/uncu. Ako hlavne faktory vidime spekulacie, oslabovanie USD a snaha niektorych centralnych bank diverzifikovat svoje rezervy nakupom zlata.

- Zaujimavost: Britska kralovska mincovna zostvornasobila produkciu zlatych minci, kedze investori hladaju sposob ako sa hedzovat proti oslabovaniu USD.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Zatial co podporna uroven 1140 odolava, doporucujeme sa pozerat na znovuotestovanie urovni nad 1150 USD/uncu. Predtym vsak vidime moznost posunu ku 1132.

STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Ak by sme sa chceli posunut na uroven 18.75 bude dolezite aby podporna uroven 18.40 USD/uncu odolala. Vidime vsak aj riziko hlbsej korekcie smerom ku 18.10 USD/uncu.

EUR/USD -
Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Kratkodoba podporna uroven sa nachadza na 1.4880 a silna podporna uroven je na 1.4810 EURUSD pred navratom spat na 1.4980, mozno 1.5015.

18 listopadu 2009

18/11 Forex Market Commentary

John Hardy, Consulting FX Specialist, Saxo Bank

USD/risk divergence proves fleeting...
Yesterday's action saw a brief, if rather marked divergence in the USD direction relative to the direction of risk appetite, as the USD showed a rallying tendency (if still within the recent range) despite equities closing rather close to recent highs.

This drew considerable interest on our part, considering the degree to which the USD and risk have tended to move in complete negatively-correlated lockstep for months now. With the action in Asia and Europe so far today, however, it appears this was merely a fleeting development. Below we try to unravel the reasons behind the churning action in the USD.

Trying to make sense of the greenback
Technically speaking...or does the market speak that language at the moment?
Technically speaking, this market is a miserable mess as every attempt by the market to tip its hat in any direction proves fleeting and treacherous. The major USD crosses that had crossed to the strong USD side of their weekly pivots have now crossed back to the weak side of those pivots, eliminating what little upside momentum had developed for the greenback.

Since we seem to just be churning in a range here, the only thing we can do at present is glance over at coincident fundamental indicators: risk appetite and interest rate spreads. These two inputs reveal a conflicting story, perhaps a key reason why we're seeing an inability for the market to commit one way or another.

Risk appetite (high risk appetite supports USD carry trade): Risk appetite remains very high by some measures, with equities at highs for the cycle (both in the US and in emerging markets), junk bond spreads close to lows, and FX volatility also close to lows for the cycle.

Interesting to note, however, that the credit market is showing some signs of worry, with CDS prices (default insurance) having risen for a month now even as equities have rallied back from their recent sell-off. The credit market often led the broader market in risk in 2006-08.

Interest rate spreads: generally, the forward expectations for the major central banks have been falling over the last few weeks, and despite falling yields at the front end of the US yield curve, spreads have actually contracted slightly in favor of the USD for the likes of AUDUSD and USDCAD, while EUR vs. US spreads have remained relatively flat. This is acting as a brake for dramatic new lows for the USD, while risk appetite is trying to push the USD in the opposite direction.

Zooming out
So the only thing we can do here considering the above inputs is to zoom out a bit and look for the technical levels that indicate a bigger break of the range and try to identify any key event risk that could serve as a trigger for a bigger directional move. For EURUSD, the technical breakouts lie at 1.5063 and 1.4808 at the moment. On the event risk side of things, it's a bit of a tougher call. Nothing looks "big enough" for the remainder of this week and next week features the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday.

Just ahead of the holiday we have the first revision of the first estimate of US GDP and we have the monthly Conference Board confidence number, either of which could receive a lot of focus if the market continues to show signs of indecisiveness. We should also never forget the "Thanksgiving surprise" of 2006, when EURUSD rocketed above 1.3000 for the first time in 18 months on Thanksgiving Day. Still, if coincident indicators continue to show the type of confusion we are seeing at present, the market action could remain muddled and treacherous, with false breakouts, etc.

MPC Confusion
The Bank of England was out with an odd, split decision in which the two dissenters were on opposite sides of the majority. The dovish dissenter, Miles, voted for £40 billion in QE (vs. the £25 billion agreed upon) and the hawkish dissenter, Dale, voted for no QE. The MPC discussed changing the interest rate on excess reserves, which would be considered dovish and therefore pound-bearish. The market responded by strongly bidding up the 3-month short sterling STIRs, as less tightening was priced into the forward curve.

On the more pound-supportive side of the equation, the MPC raised its inflation forecasts to a 2.7% annualized rate in Q1 of next year. This is only 0.3% from the level requiring the bank to write a letter to parliament and makes current policy look extraordinarily accommodative if inflation does tick up to those levels. All in all, this may prove a relatively pound-supportive development despite the initial reaction, which perhaps focused on the dovish dissenter and the excess reserves debate.

US Data
The US data today not especially supportive of risk, with CPI coming in slightly above expected and more interesting, the housing starts and building permits numbers diving well below expectations and close to the lows for the cycle. The US housing story is not over with, as millions of sub-prime-like mortgages (Alt-A and Option ARMs) face a reset in the coming 18 months or so. A very high percentage of these will end in defaults/foreclosures and serve as a large potential supply for extra housing on the market.

Looking ahead
Again, we twiddle our thumbs and wait (not so) patiently for the market to show its hand. The US 10-year yield benchmark is worth of our attention as it is trading close to the trendline support and the 200-day moving average just below 3.30% today. It's perhaps interesting to watch the oil market today. Crude prices have banged on the 80-dollar per barrel door for a month now, never really managing to break above it. We're at that price level going into today's US inventory data. Also, look out for the SNB's Hildebrand out speaking later - EURCHF has done absolutely zilch of late and could be ripe for a surprise.

Chart: US 10-year note yields
Again, we note that 10-year yields are trading up against important support after having traded in a very constricted range for months. No even risk suggests a dramatic move here, but certainly an interesting level to watch as an indicator on overall risk appetite if yields are able to drop through this level (suggests more worry than we are seeing in other asset markets at present). This is especially important, as always, for JPY crosses.