27 listopadu 2009

27/11 Daily Comment

Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

The world has turned on its ear overnight and its all down to one very important story that has by my estimations been blown a little out of proportion. Clearly everyone has heard and read about the Dubai debt fears and this sentiment has completely taken out any enthusiasm in the risk markets for now. This story couple with thin liquidity on the back of an absent US market and yearend profit fixing after tremendous equity market growth is leading to massive sell off’s across the board.

All the usual suspects in terms of risk currencies are suffering and without going into extended detail now is definitely not the time to panic. Only one thing can in some part allay current fears and that is an official comment of some sort out of Dubai.

Problem here though is the fact that that part of the world is in the middle of their most religious holiday period and no such statement is going to be forthcoming any time too soon. In equity terms we need 1062/65 to hold on the S&P for any semblance of risk appetite returning in the coming days otherwise we’ll quickly be down at 1042/30 and looking a whole lot worse.

A quick rundown of overnight action in the majors looks a little like this:

USDJPY: HORRIBLE! This pair continues lower and is now looking for 84.70 having traded as low as 84.90 overnight. Natural supply comes in at 86.50. No amount of jawboning is helping this cross and despite best efforts to scare the market into thinking of mass global intervention the Japanese government is powerless to do anything.

USDCAD: Trades to the upper end of the recent downward corridor helped in large part to gold gapping and oil following suit. I am still a seller (cautiously albeit) into 1.0800 with stops about 1% above looking for an orderly if not boring return into 1.0550/0480.

EURUSD: This thing is looking for and will soon find 1.4750 at which point I would think long and hard about initiating any new longs.

AUDNZD: Despite last night’s mess, this cross and my short are looking ok for now and continue to consolidate (run out of steam) on the top end.

GBPUSD: Refer below, but in short this thing is still a massive sell on rallies.

Of all those exposed most heavily to Dubai, the UK is worst off (refer below) and that in a major way explains the Cable decline overnight not least of which coupled with the broad based gains in the greenback overnight. Looking at the Dollar index we have recovered major losses and are now looking to press the top end of the recent downward channel in this index.

Gold also took a hit this morning gapping the better part of $20 with major stops being taken out of an overextended long market. Next target to the downside here 1125/30 and I must admit I have it firmly in my sights in the next 48 hours.

The view for the day is to stay the hell out of trouble and avoid the carnage that is presently the market. This thing is not over yet and the dust will only potentially begin to settle early next week.

European banks exposure to United Arab Emirates Billion of USD as of June 2009
Total 87.3

UK
49.5
France
11.3
Germany
10.2
Netherlands
4.7
Switzerland
4.3
Italy
1.9
Belgium
1.3
US
9.9
Japan
8.6

27/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy boli pre sviatok Thanksgiving uzavrete. Obchodovanie pocas dnesneho dna bude prebiehat iba dopoludnia lokalneho casu.

- Vcerajsi pokles na svetovych akciovych trhoch bol zapricineny informaciami o problemoch vladou vlastnenej spolocnosti Dubai World, ktora ma tazkosti splacat uvery vo vyske 59 mld. USD a snazi sa o dohodu o odlozeni splatok. Tieto informacie vzhladom na nizku likviditu na trhu mali vyznamny vplyv a viedli k zvyseniu rizikovych premii pri investovani na rozvijajucich sa trhoch (tzv. Emerging Markets).

- Neistota okolo Dubai World by nemala mat vyznamny vplyv svetove trhy, kedze ide o realativne maly objem prostriedkov. Na druhej vyvolava urcitu neistotu, ale kedze celkovo azijske ekonomiky maju dobre fundamenty, tak by vplyv mal byt limitovany.

- Finacny sektor zaznamenal pokles vedeny hlavne britskymi bankami, ktore poskytli najvacsi objem uverov Dubai World.

- Klucova trendova podporna uroven, ktora pravdepodobne bude dnes otestovana vytvori velmi dobre vstupny bod pre otvorenie dlhych pozicii. Je to 1063 pre S&P500, 5500 pre DAX, 1.4813 pre EURUSD a 1166 pre zlato.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup okolo urovne 1056 s cielom na 1074. Stop pod 1060.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup okolo urovne 5500 s cielom pri 5553. Stop pod 5489.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup okolo urovne 5082 s cielom na 5140. Stop pod 5068.

ROPA -
Neistota ohladne situaciou okolo Dubai World a s nou spojene posilnenie USD posunulo ceny ropy na nizsie urovne.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 75.00 s cielom na 73.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 76.00.

ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny. Zatial este neodporucame nakupy po poklesoch. Ak by posuny na nizsie urovne pokracovali je mozne, ze budeme testovat uroven 1131 USD/uncu.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 18.35 s cielom na 18.10 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.50.

EUR/USD -
Dnesne udaje ekonomicke udaje z Eurozony budu mat druhorady vplyv na obchodovanie. Odporucame opatrnost, kedze na trhu je nizka likvidita a US trhy este „nestravili“ vcerajsie udalosti spojene s neschopnostou Dubai World splacat svoje dlhy nacas.

- Na EURUSD mame neutralny vyhlad. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklese smerom ku 1.4800 s cielom na 1.4900 EURUSD. Stop pod 1.4790.

EUR/CZK -
Trhy su ovplyvnene viac negativnymi spravami ako pozitivnymi. CZK je pod tlakom pretrvavajucim z neistoty okolo Dubai World.

- Vyrazny posun na vyssie urovne by mohol byt moznostou pre zrealizovanie casti ziskov z dlhych EURCZK pozicii.

- Rezistencia je na 26.62 a podporna uroven na 26.087 EURCZK.

www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk

26 listopadu 2009

26/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY
- Akciove trhy ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie v ciernych cislach podporene zverejnenymi lepsimi datami o predaji domov, spotrebitelskej dovere a ziadostiam o podporu v nezamestnanosti. Tu je dolezite uvedomit si, ake vyznamne su udaje o spotrebitelskej dovere v US ekonomike, kedze 70% US HDP je zalozeneho na spotrebe. Inymi slovami, cim vyssia spotreba v USA, vacsia sanca na ekonomicke ozivenie po celom svete.

- Rast bol limitovany informaciami o problemoch vladou vlastnenej spolocnosti Dubai World, ktora ma tazkosti splacat uvery vo vyske 59 mld. USD a snazi sa o dohodu o odlozeni splatok.

- Klucova rezistencia pre S&P500 je 1114 a 5843 pre DAX.

- Doporucujeme predaje po narastoch, kedze na trhoch je potrebna urcita konsolidacia a kvoli nizkej likvidite nebudu mat obchodnici zaujem o prelomenie dolezitych urovni.

- Na US trhoch sa neobchoduje kvoli sviatku Thanksgiving.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5784 s cielom na 5744. Stop nad 5826.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 5349 s cielom na 5318. Stop nad 5346.

ROPA -
Ceny ropy vzrastli o takmer 2 USD po zverejneni udajov, ze dopyt po rope rastol uz druhy tyzden po sebe. Zasoby ropy boli zverejnene na urovni 1019k vs. 1500k ocakavanych.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 77.50 s cielom na 75.50 USD/barel. Stop nad 78.20.

ZLATO-
Zlato rastlo k novym maximam podporene dopytom po aktivach poskytujucich ochranu pred slabnucim USD.

- Zlatu pomohli taktiez informacie o tom, ze India by mohla kupit dalsie zlato od IMF. Po precitani si tychto informacii sa zda, ze centralne banky prestavaju verit USD a nakupuju zlato (tu s jedna o prirodzenu diverzifikaciu zo strany centralnych bank), ale treba si uvedomit, ze IMF je nuteny predavat svoje zlate rezervy aby mal dostatok hotovosti na poskytovanie uverov.

- Zlato je o 34% vyssie od zaciatku roku.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je negativny. Odporucame zrealizovat zisky na dlhych poziciach.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 18.48 s cielom na 18.20 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.70.

EUR/USD -
Vcerajsie oslabenie USD sa neda pripisat lepsim eknomickym udajom z USA. Jedine vysvetlenie bola nizka likvidita na trhu, na ktoru sme vcera upozornovali ako aj spekulacie, ze objem USD Carry trades moze este narast.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1.5100 s cielom na 1.5000 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.5150.

EUR/CZK -
Vyvoj zavisi od postoja investorov k riziku, obchodovania na akciovych trhoch a vyvoja EURUSD.

- Pokles EURCZK zostava stale limitovany.

- Podnikatelska dovera ako aj nalada spotrebitelov zaznamenali narast, ale este su stale vyznamne nizsie ako pred krizou.

- Podnitalsky sektor bude este celit problemom s postupnym pomalym ozivenim, zatial co spotrebitelia sa budu musiet vysporiadat s rastucou nezamestnanostou.

- Rezistencia je na 26.65 a podporna uroven na 25.75 EURCZK.

www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk

26/11 Daily commentary

Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving central banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.

Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.

It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.

Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?

Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.

America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.

I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.

Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.

23 listopadu 2009

23/11 Ekonomický komentář

Připravil Radim DOhnal, Saxo Bank

Zlato
Zlato nadále láme rekordy, myšleno cena jedné trojské unce v dolarech. Právě to, že je cena vyjádřena v dolarech, znamená, že slabší dolar vykazuje dražší zlato. Poslední dny jsou ve ze znamení pokračujících obav o budoucnost dolaru znamená dražší zlato i stříbro. V pondělí dopoledne se dostalo až ba 1165, čímž velmi rychle překonalo náš cíl pro pondělí.

Ropa
Cena ropy je nadále tažená očekáváním zlepšující se ekonomické situace rozvíjejících se trhů Asie, kde nadále panuje vysoká energetická náročnost a také oslabujícím dolarem, což jde ruku v ruce. Pro pondělí jsme na ropu pozitivně naladěni, čekáme posilování k úrovni 80 USD/barel.

www.saxobank.cz