20 listopadu 2009

20/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank


AKCIE

Americke akciove trhy boli negativne ovplyvnene obavami, ze ich rast predbehol vyhliadky na ozivenie ekonomiky.

- Kedze buduci tyzden vo stvrtok je v USA Thanksgiving Day a v piatok sa burzy uzavru o 13.00 NY casu, je mozne ze investori budu uzatvarat svoje pozicie a realizovat zisky. Nasledne by sme mohli vidiet narast pred Vianocnymi sviatkami.

- Dnes neocakavame ziadne vyznamne data zo ziadnej zo stran Atlantiku.

- Zostavame pozitivne naladeni na rizikovejsie aktiva a nas ciel je S&P500 na urovni 1121.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1090 s cielom na 1102. Stop pod 1085.

ROPA
- Pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania sme boli svedkami poklesu zaujmu o rizikovejsie aktiva co bolo vyvolane vlnou znizovania ratingov a odhadovanymi horsimi vysledkami niektorych spolocnosti. Pokles na akciovych trhoch nasledne vyvolal pokles aj cien ropy.

- Pocas azijskeho obchodovania sa trhy mierne korigovali, co by malo pokracovat aj pocas obchodovania v Europe. Kedze dnes neocakavame vyznamnejsie makrodata, obchodovanie by malo by pokojne.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. Vidime priestor pre dalsi pokles. Rezistencna uroven sa nachadza na 78.65 USD/barel. Kratkodoby ciel pri obchodovani vidime na 76.00.


ZLATO-
Zlato sa posuva na vyssie urovne aj vdaka vyssiemu dopytu spotrebitelov v Cine. Cina bola jediny trh kde rastol dopyt po zlatych sperkoch v 3Q. Na druhej strane sa dopyt na tradicnych trhoch v Indii a na Strednom Vychode vyrazne prepadol.

- Na trhoch vidiet zaujimavu situaciu, ked akciove trhy ako aj ceny zlata rastu, co je velmi nezvycajne. Skor alebo neskor pride ku korekcii a my si myslime ze to budu akcie, ktore sa posunu na nizsie urovne.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny.Vidime konsolidaciu v pasme 1140 -1150 USD/uncu.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je neutralny. Kratkodoba rezistencia je na urovni 18.60. V pripade posunu vyssie, by sme smerovali ku 18.80. Ak nie, tak obchodovanie by mohlo zostat v pasme 18.20-18.60 USD/uncu.

EUR/USD -
Celkovo sa pasmo, v ktorom sa obchoduje EURUSD ztensuje. Vzhladom na chybajuce makrodata by obchodovanie malo byt ovplyvnene len zaujmom/nezaujmom o rizikovejsie aktiva.

- Ani vsak horsia nalada na akciovych trh, by nemala pomoct USD vyrazne zhodnotit.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavane, ze narast by mal zostat na urovni 1.4935, alebo maximalne na 1.4975, pred poklesom ku 1.4845-50 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.5015.

19 listopadu 2009

19/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie poklesm z 13-mesacnych maxim na zaklade predpovedi o horsich hospodarskych vysledkov technologickych firiem Autodesk Inc. a Salesforce.com Inc .

- Negativne posobia aj udaje z trhu nehnutelnosti v USA kde tzv. Housing starts (nove zacate stavby domov) poklesli o 11% na mesacnej baze. Tento jav sposobili spekulacie o nepredlzeni danovych ulav pre prvokupcov domov a len potvrdilo ako je trh nehnutelnosti zavisly od vladnej podpory ozivenia pri stale rastucej nezamestnanosti.

- Dnes budu zverejnene udaje o malobchodnych trzbach (ocakavame narast), Leading Indicators (ocakavame pokles)a Philadelphia Fed. Index (ocakavame narast). Vsetky z uvedenych budu mat vplyv na pohyby na trhoch.

- Zostavame pozitivne naladeni na rizikovejsie aktiva a nas ciel je S&P500 na urovni 1121.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1114. Stop pod 1100.

ROPA
- Po vcerajsom zverejneni nizsich zasob ropy a paliv ako aj nizsej produkcie rafinerii a dovozu ropy do USA sa ceny posunuli na vyssie urovne.

- Cena zemneho plynu poklesla o viac ako 6% kedze mierne pocasie znizuje dopyt po vykurovacich olejoch a palivach.

- Dnes mame na ropu neutralny vyhlad. Ceny sa dotykaju trendovej rezistencnej urovne 79.90. Dnesne obchodovanie vidime v pasme 79 - 80.00 USD/barel.

ZLATO
- Zlato sa pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania opat posunulo na nove maxima na urovni okolo 1152 USD/uncu. Ako hlavne faktory vidime spekulacie, oslabovanie USD a snaha niektorych centralnych bank diverzifikovat svoje rezervy nakupom zlata.

- Zaujimavost: Britska kralovska mincovna zostvornasobila produkciu zlatych minci, kedze investori hladaju sposob ako sa hedzovat proti oslabovaniu USD.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Zatial co podporna uroven 1140 odolava, doporucujeme sa pozerat na znovuotestovanie urovni nad 1150 USD/uncu. Predtym vsak vidime moznost posunu ku 1132.

STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Ak by sme sa chceli posunut na uroven 18.75 bude dolezite aby podporna uroven 18.40 USD/uncu odolala. Vidime vsak aj riziko hlbsej korekcie smerom ku 18.10 USD/uncu.

EUR/USD -
Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Kratkodoba podporna uroven sa nachadza na 1.4880 a silna podporna uroven je na 1.4810 EURUSD pred navratom spat na 1.4980, mozno 1.5015.

18 listopadu 2009

18/11 Forex Market Commentary

John Hardy, Consulting FX Specialist, Saxo Bank

USD/risk divergence proves fleeting...
Yesterday's action saw a brief, if rather marked divergence in the USD direction relative to the direction of risk appetite, as the USD showed a rallying tendency (if still within the recent range) despite equities closing rather close to recent highs.

This drew considerable interest on our part, considering the degree to which the USD and risk have tended to move in complete negatively-correlated lockstep for months now. With the action in Asia and Europe so far today, however, it appears this was merely a fleeting development. Below we try to unravel the reasons behind the churning action in the USD.

Trying to make sense of the greenback
Technically speaking...or does the market speak that language at the moment?
Technically speaking, this market is a miserable mess as every attempt by the market to tip its hat in any direction proves fleeting and treacherous. The major USD crosses that had crossed to the strong USD side of their weekly pivots have now crossed back to the weak side of those pivots, eliminating what little upside momentum had developed for the greenback.

Since we seem to just be churning in a range here, the only thing we can do at present is glance over at coincident fundamental indicators: risk appetite and interest rate spreads. These two inputs reveal a conflicting story, perhaps a key reason why we're seeing an inability for the market to commit one way or another.

Risk appetite (high risk appetite supports USD carry trade): Risk appetite remains very high by some measures, with equities at highs for the cycle (both in the US and in emerging markets), junk bond spreads close to lows, and FX volatility also close to lows for the cycle.

Interesting to note, however, that the credit market is showing some signs of worry, with CDS prices (default insurance) having risen for a month now even as equities have rallied back from their recent sell-off. The credit market often led the broader market in risk in 2006-08.

Interest rate spreads: generally, the forward expectations for the major central banks have been falling over the last few weeks, and despite falling yields at the front end of the US yield curve, spreads have actually contracted slightly in favor of the USD for the likes of AUDUSD and USDCAD, while EUR vs. US spreads have remained relatively flat. This is acting as a brake for dramatic new lows for the USD, while risk appetite is trying to push the USD in the opposite direction.

Zooming out
So the only thing we can do here considering the above inputs is to zoom out a bit and look for the technical levels that indicate a bigger break of the range and try to identify any key event risk that could serve as a trigger for a bigger directional move. For EURUSD, the technical breakouts lie at 1.5063 and 1.4808 at the moment. On the event risk side of things, it's a bit of a tougher call. Nothing looks "big enough" for the remainder of this week and next week features the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday.

Just ahead of the holiday we have the first revision of the first estimate of US GDP and we have the monthly Conference Board confidence number, either of which could receive a lot of focus if the market continues to show signs of indecisiveness. We should also never forget the "Thanksgiving surprise" of 2006, when EURUSD rocketed above 1.3000 for the first time in 18 months on Thanksgiving Day. Still, if coincident indicators continue to show the type of confusion we are seeing at present, the market action could remain muddled and treacherous, with false breakouts, etc.

MPC Confusion
The Bank of England was out with an odd, split decision in which the two dissenters were on opposite sides of the majority. The dovish dissenter, Miles, voted for £40 billion in QE (vs. the £25 billion agreed upon) and the hawkish dissenter, Dale, voted for no QE. The MPC discussed changing the interest rate on excess reserves, which would be considered dovish and therefore pound-bearish. The market responded by strongly bidding up the 3-month short sterling STIRs, as less tightening was priced into the forward curve.

On the more pound-supportive side of the equation, the MPC raised its inflation forecasts to a 2.7% annualized rate in Q1 of next year. This is only 0.3% from the level requiring the bank to write a letter to parliament and makes current policy look extraordinarily accommodative if inflation does tick up to those levels. All in all, this may prove a relatively pound-supportive development despite the initial reaction, which perhaps focused on the dovish dissenter and the excess reserves debate.

US Data
The US data today not especially supportive of risk, with CPI coming in slightly above expected and more interesting, the housing starts and building permits numbers diving well below expectations and close to the lows for the cycle. The US housing story is not over with, as millions of sub-prime-like mortgages (Alt-A and Option ARMs) face a reset in the coming 18 months or so. A very high percentage of these will end in defaults/foreclosures and serve as a large potential supply for extra housing on the market.

Looking ahead
Again, we twiddle our thumbs and wait (not so) patiently for the market to show its hand. The US 10-year yield benchmark is worth of our attention as it is trading close to the trendline support and the 200-day moving average just below 3.30% today. It's perhaps interesting to watch the oil market today. Crude prices have banged on the 80-dollar per barrel door for a month now, never really managing to break above it. We're at that price level going into today's US inventory data. Also, look out for the SNB's Hildebrand out speaking later - EURCHF has done absolutely zilch of late and could be ripe for a surprise.

Chart: US 10-year note yields
Again, we note that 10-year yields are trading up against important support after having traded in a very constricted range for months. No even risk suggests a dramatic move here, but certainly an interesting level to watch as an indicator on overall risk appetite if yields are able to drop through this level (suggests more worry than we are seeing in other asset markets at present). This is especially important, as always, for JPY crosses.

18/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Akciove trhy sa potacali v priebehu vcerajsieho obchodovania medzi medzi ziskami a stratami, co bolo zapricinene rastom akcii producentov komodit a horsimi udajmi o priemyselnej produkcii v USA. Celkovo produkcia vzrastla len 0.1%, co bolo zapricinene prvym poklesom vyroby za posledne 4 mesiace.

- Spolocnosti Wal-Mart Stores a Exxon Mobil rastli potom ako Warren Buffett zverejnil nakup ich akcii.

- Akcie Caterpillar a ITT poklesli po tom ako boli zverejnene udaje o nizsej priemyslenej produkcii.

- Akcie Sprint Nextel (treti najvacsi mobilny operator v USA) rastli 13%, po tom ako spolocnost vyhlasila, ze splatila 1 mld. USD zo svojich dlhov v ramci „cistenia“ suvahy a poklese prijmov.

- Home Depot a Lowe’s Cos poklesli vzhladom na nizsie zisky z predaja.

- Akcie SunPower Corp. poklesli 19% po tom co spolocnost ohlasila, ze niektore produkcne naklady boli podcenene a zle zauctovane.

- Dnes budu zverejnene udaje o inflacii CPI a Core CPI (ocistene o potraviny a energie, ktore by mali byt o nieco nizsie ako su ocakavania).

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po prelomene hranice 1111 s cielom pri 1117. Stop pod 1109.


ROPA -
Aj napriek zverejneniu horsich udajov o priemyselnej produkcii a dalsich makroekonomickych dat v USA, komodity pocas vcerajsieho obchodovania rastli. Ropa sa posunula na vyssie urovne, co bolo zapricinene predpovedami o poklese zasob ropy v USA. Tieto udaje budu zverejnene zajtra.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne negativny vyhlad. V priebehu dnesneho dna je mozne, ze bude na dennych maximach pod urovnou 80.00 USD/barel. Obchodovanie s ropou sa podla nasho nazoru moze posunut spat na urovne 78.50.

ZLATO-
Zlato bolo v poslednom obdobi posuvane az na historicke maxima okolo urovne 1142 USD/uncu hlavne slabnucim USD a spekulaciami.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Je mozne, ze pre zlato bude tazke sa posunut cez uroven 1145 USD/uncu. Vidime riziko vacsej kratkodobej korekcie smerom k 1132 alebo az ku 1127.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 18.40 alebo po prelomeni hranice 18.30 s cielom na 18.20 USD/uncu.

EUR/USD -
Horsie zverejene vysledky a rastuca nezamestnanost ponukaju FED-u dost priestoru na ponechanie urokovych sadzieb na nizkych urovniach pocas dlhsieho obdobia.

- Zda sa, ze USD nedokaze najst dostatocnu podporu v negativnych spravach. Je to zapricinene spekulativnymi poziciami niektorych hracov. Trend jednoznacneho posunu EURUSD vyssie sa zda, ze vyprchava aspon nateraz. Na druhej strane nemozeme ocakavat vyrazny obrat vzhladom na stale zaujimavu poziciu USD ako Carry trade meny.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavame, ze EURUSD najde rezistenciu na urovni 1.4900-10 pred znovuotestovanim 1.4825 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.4950


EUR/CZK
- Posun na nizsie urovne je pre EURCZK stale limitovany. Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne makroekonomicke data.

- CZK sa obchoduje v uzkom pasme.

- Rezistencia je na 26.10 a podporna uroven na 25.301 EURCZK.

17 listopadu 2009

17/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Akciove trhy sa opat posunuli na 13-mesacne maxima. Boli podporene hlavne rastom malobchodnych trzieb a vyhlasenim azijskych krajin zoskupenych v APEC o ponechani stimulacneho balicka, co znamena zvysenu spotrebu v Azii.

- Pozitivny udaj pre akciove trhy, bolo zverejnenie poklesu priemyselnych zasob na stvorocne minima, co znamena narast priemyselnych objednavok v blizkej buducnosti.

- GM a Ford zaznamenali prvy narast predaja za posledne tri roky, co by mohlo naznacovat stabilizaciu v US automobilovom priemysle.

- US export vzrastol piaty mesiac v rade a spolu so slabym USD a nizkymi zasobami prispeje k narastu priemyselnej produkcie a ekonomickemu rastu.

- Negativne sa stale vynima spotreba domacnosti zapricinena rastom nezamestnanosti nad 10%, trend, ktory bude pokracovat aj v prvej polovici 2010.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1100 s cielom pri 1118. Stop pod 1096.


ROPA
- Rast malobchodnych trzieb, ponechanie stimulacneho balicka azijskymi krajinami a komentar sefa FED-u Bernankeho posunuli ceny ropy vyrazne na vyssie urovne. Ponechanie urokovych sadzieb na nizkych urovniach v USA pozitivne podporuje investicie do riskantnych aktiv ako su akciove trhy a komodity.

- Dnes mame na ropu mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 78.00 s cielom na 80.00 USD/barel. Stop pod 77.00.


ZLATO
- Vcerajsi narast zlata az na urovne 1139.80 USD/uncu odzrkadluje spekulacie, slabnuci USD a riziko inflacie v USA.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po prelomeni hranice 1144 s cielom n 1155 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1140.


STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakup po poklesoch smerom ku 18.05 s cielom na 18.35 USD/uncu. Stop pod 17.90.


EUR/USD

- Komentar sefa FED-u Bernankeho: financne podmienky sa zlepsia, stale su vsak pritomne „vyzvy“ pre ekonomiku, vidiet prve znamky ozivenia, ale stale je pritomna velka neistota pre rok 2010 a neskor, pristup k uverom je stale obmedzeny, pretrvavajuce problemy s nezamestnanostou a bankovym sektorom. FED si uvedomuje hrozby moznej bubliny na trhoch, sustredi sa na zamestnanost a cenovu stabilitu. FED podporuje silny USD, ktory je zakladom globalnej financnej stability.

- Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku podpornej urovni 1.4930, nasledne s testovanim urovne 1.5015 pripadne 1.5065. EURUSD. Stop/navrat spat pod 1.4900 smerom ku 1.4825.

EUR/CZK
Statny sviatok – 17. november 1989. Na trhu bude nizka likvidita, co by mohlo viest k vyraznejsim pohybom, podobne ako pocas posledneho statneho sviatku 28. oktobra.

- Rezistencia je na 26.10 a podporna uroven na 25.334 EURCZK.

www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk

16 listopadu 2009

16/11 Forex Market Update

Prepared by John Hardy, Consulting FX Specialist, Saxo Bank

Asian officials talk up the USD carry trade bubble Officials from China and Japan were out overnight complaining about US monetary policy and the risks it poses for the creation of asset bubbles - largely a fait accompli in our view, though the bubble can certainly worsen from here. Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that low rates in the US and a falling dollar could mean "new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy."

The Bank of Japan's Shirakawa said the emerging economies "might overheat and experience financial turmoil". These are the kinds of signals broadcast by officialdom as Obama continues his Asian tour. He is China through midweek, and will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao on Tuesday.

One might think that the situation would lead to the Chinese considering an appreciation of their currency vs. the greenback, but the imbalanced recovery in China is likely the reason for its maintenance of a virtual peg. Recent signals emerged suggesting that China is looking to move again on the yuan after freezing its level vs. the dollar since the beginning of the crisis.

(The cynic might chime in that the "signals" for yuan appreciation were merely an olive branch extended ahead of Obama's visit.) In any case, China's stance on its intention for the yuan were muddled by the Chinese Commerce Ministry's Yao overnight, who stated that a stronger yuan "is not conducive to a global economic recovery is not fair."

He also stated that "It's necessary for us to provide a stable and predictable environment in terms of macro-economic and exchange rate policies." He did NOT say 'we're petrified that the recovery will not materialize as hoped and that we risk a massive asset crash in China', though that might be closer to the truth...
Yao's very clear statement suggests that yuan policy is unlikely to change in the immediate future. This is actually EURUSD bullish as it presents the risk of additional reserve diversification pressures on the greenback. The situation in EURCNY, meanwhile, is becoming untenable, and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans treat the issue in coming months.

Whenever the Chinese finally do move on the yuan, it will actually be USD-bullish vs. Europe, as it could short-circuit the reserve diversification trade, even as the USD would decline vs. Asia. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn holds the view that the Chinese need to move on the yuan and stated last night that "Allowing the yuan and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labor share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment."

Other Asian news included a Japanese GDP report showing better than expected growth. JPY crosses have bounced back sharply higher from Friday's lows, choosing to follow the risk appetite rather than the moves in interest rates, which suggest that the JPY should be stronger here. EURJPY is one of the more interesting crosses to watch of late for JPY direction as it has mostly traded within a 200-pip range for eight trading days now and has failed to break in either direction.

US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data for the month of October showed an anemic rise ex Autos. So-called "Black Friday" - the first Friday after next Thursday's Thanksgiving - is fast approaching and is the next major indicator for the strength of holiday shopping in the US. It's hard to imagine a strong shopping season considering record real unemployment since WW II, dour "present situation" indicators for confidence, higher savings rates, anemic wage growth for those still with a job, and tighter credit conditions. Will this market ever see a reality check?

Looking ahead
We seem to be back in bubble inflation mode as we start this week. Gold has vaulted to new highs, the commodity currencies are rattling their cages once again, and equities are trading just off recent highs for the cycle. Last week's interesting move to USD strength failed to follow through and we're currently neutral in a narrow zone, looking at recent bubble highs to see if they will hold the market back from another round of risk appetite. To the downside on risk, we have last week's highs in the greenback that need to be breached to reinvigorate the argument for dollar strength again.

Watch out for the Fed's Bernanke out speaking in the US today. All signs are that the Fed is in a cautious, wait and see mode, but any turn of phrase can rock the boat.

16/11 - Ekonomický komentár

Prepared by Radim Dohnal, Saxo Bank

EURUSD
Dnešek obecně očekáváme spíše pozitivní, dále se budeme přibližovat našemu střednědobému cíli 1121 na SP500. Na EURUSD čekáme prolomení úrovně 1,50.

Ropa
Slabší dolar a pozitivní nálada na akciových trzích by měly posouvat ropu výše. Pro dnešek doporučujeme koupit po prolomení úrovně 77,80 a cílujeme na 79,50.

Zlato
I na zlatě slabší dolar a silnější akcie by měly vést k silnějšímu zlatu. Úroveň 1131 by měla být dosažena. Zlato je z techického pohledu krátkodobě překoupeno, je tedy nutno být obezřetný a používat stop lossy.