22 ledna 2010

22/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil: Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader Saxo Bank

Obchodovanie v USA sa vcera skoncilo hlboko v cervenych cislach. Najvacsiu mieru na tom mal zverejneny plan americkej administrativy o novych regulacnych opatreniach a ocakavania vyraznejsieho obmedzenia poskytovania uverov potom co Cina zverejnila udaje o 10.7% raste za Q4 2010.

- Novy plan by mal vyrazne obmedzit spekulacne obchody bank v podobe zakazu propriatery trading (obchodovanie na vlastny ucet), investicii do hedzovych fondov a private equity. Co by malo vyustit do vypredaja jednotlivych divizii a rozdelenia bank.

- Nervozita investorov je spojena s mensimi prijmami bank s vynosnych investicnych operacii, rastom poplatkov a znizenim konkurencieschopnosti US bank na medzinarodnej urovni.

- Akcie JPMorgan Chase & Co. a Bank of America Corp. (minuly rok kupila Merrill Lynch & Co.) poklesli o viac ako 6%. Morgan Stanley a podobne aj Goldman Sachs Group Inc. poklesli aj napriek lepsim vysledkom ako boli ocakavania analytikov. Citigroup Inc. poklesla o 5.5%.

- Dnes doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni ku 5750 s cielom na 5717. Stop loss nad 5763.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni ku 5363 s cielom na 5335. Stop loss nad 5381.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1121 s cielom na 1115. Stop loss nad 1124.

- Dnesne doporucenie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): ASML Holding, Delhaize Group, Unibail-Rodamco, British Airways, Carnival, Reed Elsevier, Severn Trent.

- Dnesne doporucenie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, Allianz, Alstom, Anheuser-Busch I., ArcelorMittal, Banco Popolare, Amec, Anglo American, BAE Systems, BG Group, BP, British Land, Bunzl, Compass Group, Experian, Fresnillo.

Za posledne dni bolo kovy ovplyvnene ocakavanim vyvoja inflacie a vyraznym posilnenim USD.

- Vyhlad na najblizsich par dni: vyznamna uroven je na 1086. Po poklese ku 1060 vidime vyrazny posun vyssie.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj po prelomeni urovne 1088 s cielom na 1075 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1092.

Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Po zhodnoteni doporucujeme predaje smerom ku 17.65 s cielom na 17.40 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.75.

Ceny platiny za poslednom obdobi vyrazne rastli co bolo sposobene hlavne spustenim noveho ETF fondu, ktory nakupoval fyzicku platinu v objeme 10x vacsom ako bola denna produkcia. Momentalne dohadza ku prirodzenej korekcii.

- Pri obchodovani s platinou, paladiom a striebrom si musime uvedomit, ze je nizsia likvidita ako pri zlate. To znamena, ze ceny tychto kovov reaguju agresivnejsie na pozitivne/negativne spravy o vyvoji USD, inflaci a vyvoja na akciovych trhoch ako zlato.

Ceny ropy sa posunuli nizsie negativne podporene poklesom dopytu po palivach a vyuzitia rafineri. Sposobene to bolo hlavne vyraznym poklesom dopytu na Zapadnom pobrezi USA, kde je distribucny system izolovany od zbytku krajiny.

- Vyvoj cien ropy ako aj ostatnych komodit zavisia od vyvoja na akciovych trhoch a hodnoty USD, co budu aj dnes hlavne faktory ovplyvnujuce obchodovanie.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Po narastoch doporucujeme predaje smerom ku 77.30 s cielom na 75.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 78.00.

- Po vcerajsom oznameni US administrativy o novom regulacnom plane USD nedokazal profitovat z celosvetovej averzie k riziku. Nie je to prekvapujuce, kedze akekolvek obmedzenia US trhov znamenaju mensiu likviditu a tym pritazlivost USD.

- S dalsimi krokmi ohladne planu je spojena neistota, ktora nepomaha USD.

- Dnesne data o priemyselnej produkci by mali byt lepsie, ocakavania trhu 0.5% (Saxo Bank 0.9%), co by mohlo pomoct EUR sa docasne udrzat na 1.4000.

- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujeme nakupy po kazdom poklese smerom ku 1.4075 a narastom spat cez 1.4150 ku 1.4200 EURUSD. Stop pod 1.4025.

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Alright someone has to say it….

Barak Obama has gone stark raving mad!

Allow me to elaborate before the secret service swoop down into Copenhagen and lead me away in shackles….
Clearly anyone with a TV or access to a newspaper with even a passing interest in the market or world politics should by now be aware of the Presidents little tirade last night regarding the separation of retail/normal banking services and any and all risk taking or proprietary activity amongst American financial institutions. If only it was limited to a tirade perhaps I could take this in my stride, but no folks, this wasn’t just a diatribe for the cameras and world press this was the president introducing and trying to pass new laws to the effect. I’ll get to the obvious market reaction momentarily but in the interim allow me to speculate as to the genuine motivation behind this move.

This in my mind is nothing more than political game play from the incumbent administration in direct retaliation for the recent loss of a key democratic senate seat and the more than likely blockage of the Obama health reform bill. How? You ask… Simply put Obama (despite assurances to the contrary) has basically seen the playing field altered significantly and in a political game of tit for tat decided that if the Republicans are going to block his administrations flagship reform policy then he will not only handicap them by ensuring a drought of further political funding that has traditionally come from Wall street but also (apparently) keep his voters onside by striking a blow to the capitalist pigs that have brought his country to the brink of financial failure. He figures if I can’t get what’s important for my country (the health bill) then I will avenge all of middle America in one foul swoop by ensuring that those responsible for the demise of the economy will suffer accordingly and thus avoid a repeat of 2008/9 in future years.

The proposal is simple really, it means that he is pushing for a complete separation of any risk seeking behavior and the deposit taking modus operandi of American financial institutions. No longer (if passed) will a bank be allowed to take in customer funds with one hand and take practically limitless risk with the other. The ultimate Chinese wall along the lines of the fabled separation of church and state written into the American constitution. Now we all know how well that has worked in the past, just ask George W. Bush how he was able to be reelected, how the NRA thrives and survives etc etc. So no more hedge funds, prop desks, CDS’s etc sitting within the structure of banks, separate or die is the new mantra! Will it be passed? I’d like to think not but as it stands it’s almost a 50/50 call at this stage….

And now the market reaction…. The yardstick of market risk willingness, the VIX index has seen a 30% uptick trading at 17 before Obama and now (at print) shows 22.27. From this one thing we can clearly see the fact that no one really wants to be in this market and more importantly is prepared to wear any real portion of risk. Subsequently we saw all major equity indices lose up to 3% overnight on the move while all the major crosses saw exaggerated volatility all stemming from a market that simply didn’t know how to position itself. The DXY is now approaching resistance at 79 and while still looking strong to the upside, one can’t help but think that there is surely a retracement waiting in the wings.

On the majors;

USDJPY: Looks heavy and will likely now despite chatter of further QE out of Japan be testing immediate support and stops sitting under 89.80, once the clean out finishes (it might take a while) look to buy dips for a return to 91.50.

EURUSD: Greenback driven, I see this thing try once more to the upside and fail at 1.4200/30, from there sell it, sell your grandmother, sell whatever you’ve got and look to take it back below 1.4000.

GBPUSD: Still looks bid (sort of), but is having difficulty sustaining any gains above 1.6250/80 and to me signals further weakness to come looking for 1.6080 at first glance.

AUDUSD: This thing looks tired and is now going to see how the downside develops perhaps forming a base around 0.8950 in the run up to the next RBA meeting. I sell rallies and have now taken profit on my strategic short from 0.9290.

USDCAD: I was a buyer on dips in and around 1.0250 and now I stay the course looking for first resistance around 1.0550 to hold initially but get taken out in the near term.

GBPCHF: My strategic short from 1.7020 is still in play and I keep selling it if and when I see it around the 1.7100 level looking to average in. Thus far though we have already seen intermediate support taken out at 1.6880 (trading as low as 1.6845) confirming my view.

Good luck out there folks, it’s messy and will likely stay that way so don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

21 ledna 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Things are going well and the market looks good to me in the sense that I am picking trades and direction, one problem however and that is that this morning I am terribly hung-over!
So apologies if this seems a bit sketchy but Danish slow poured beer is definitely the culprit here.

On to markets and developments of note overnight… China! Having reported their CPI, Retail sales and GDP figures I am left scratching my head and thinking how essentially planned economies can pretty much report anything they like and defy the rest of the world to prove them wrong. You might have guessed that I don’t necessarily believe these awfully industrious chaps from China, but if they sell the idea and the rest of the market buys (albeit skeptically) then who am I to argue. Point is the data did give a small boost to recently waning risk appetite in that it perpetuates the notion of the global growth and recovery story and adds credence to those pitching that this is not a commodity “bubble” but genuinely demand driven…. Whatever….

Elsewhere the DXY and the greenback continue to march on ever higher and stronger with the EURUSD giving in further ground testing overnight lows of 1.4065/70 and wearing even more pain this morning with reported stops sitting below 1.4050/60. I feel that they will get taken out today and we end up seeing a print below 1.4000 and well enough to my intermediate target of 1.3900. Rallies in this cross need to be sold and I advise looking for the invariable short squeezes as opportunities to do so into 1.4150/70.

The Cable has followed suit and this morning finally taken out the 1.6250 level and the sops that have been building up below it, my target on this move is 1.6180 and depending on how the UK data reads later this morning we may well be through there also. However I do initially expect some good two way business to be seen around those levels. In order to express my view on further Cable weakness and avoid the inevitable volatility associated with the EURGBP, I am now strategically short the GBPCHF at 1.7020 looking for corrections to 1.6750 and 1.6600.

I have taken profit on my short AUDUSD from 0.9290 of last week around an average of 0.9090 and feel that from here while there is likely to be more downside it will be relatively limited until we see the outcome of the Feb 2nd. RBA meeting.

Data today brings us;

Euro zone PMI
UK Public Finance data
US Initial/continuing claims

On the employment data from the US I would be erring on the side of caution and suggest we could well see a worse number printed.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

20 ledna 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Ahhh the euphoria of a firmer Cable seems to have subsided and reality has finally set in. Looking at the factors as noted yesterday:

• The CPI data – over inflated on the back of higher VAT and December petrol prices
• Kraft has finally bought Cadbury’s
• Goldman Sachs talking their own long Cable book
• 3 separate occasions at which the BOE et al. have talked growth and inflation down over the coming years, need I mention the Inflation report of only 2 months ago…
• Oh and did I mention that the UK is in the toilet coupled with an election year… don’t believe the politicians!

So if you’re not quite convinced yet of a weaker Cable then I don’t think you ever will be. In the UK this morning we have the BOE minutes along with UK unemployment on tap, both of which should secure the above view and I look for 1.6250 to be taken out with first target of 1.6180.

Moving on let’s look at the massive Greenback move overnight starting with the EURUSD which took out long standing barriers into 1.4200 and triggered serious gamma covering all the way into an overnight low of 1.4166, we come in this morning to see a brief recovery as is always the case but I expect t his to be short-lived and don’t rule out a squeeze into 1.4230/50 at which point I am a big seller still looking for 1.3900 in the coming days.

The AUDUSD took an equally big hit overnight and I am moving in for my first target of 0.9115 from the 0.9290 sell. Having closed below the breakout and support of 0.9170 the direction is confirmed to the downside for the time being. Another commodity currency feeling some pain is the CAD but mainly only through the big dollar on the back of dovish commentary from Carney of the BOC yesterday. Having closed above 1.0320 I look for a test in the coming days of 1.4020/30 which for now is far more formidable resistance, for those long I recommend you stay that way as the risk reward for those that bought on dips as suggested into 1.0250 is improving with each passing day. Keep an eye on CAD CPI today for more direction, however be warned we may see a mixed signal to the market as it capitulates on which way to go.

Elsewhere today we have the US housing starts and PPI which will cause a small if not insignificant ruffle in the market. More interestingly though (and I’m still scratching my head to understand) the election of a Republican to Teddy Kennedy’s old senate seat has been widely received by the market as USD positive?????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I mean net/net all this means is the Democrats likely lose their senate majority and the recently introduced Obama healthcare bill gets scarpered, how this equates to dollar strength though is beyond me. I say just keep an eye on the DXY to get a better understanding of where the USD is likely to go in the coming days.

And finally the USDJPY…. I still think this thing goes higher and dips need to be bought, but until we decisively break the 91.30 upside pullbacks could be as deep as 90.30 so look to average into fresh longs strategically rather than haphazardly.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

19 ledna 2010

19/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Karol Piovarcsy, Saxo Bank

Rast cien na trhu komodít posilnil ropné a ťažobné spoločnosti. Spotová cena platina sa vyšplhala na 1 625 USD za tr. uncu, čo predstavuje najvyššiu úroveň od augusta 2008. Paládium sa dvihlo o 1,4 % ku hodnote 457 USD za uncu.

Aj ropa sa od včerajšieho dňa dostáva na vyššie úrovne. Pôsobia na ňu len očakávania investorov ohľadom zverejnenia ekonomických indikátorov z Číny alebo aj iné faktory? Aký posun očakávate pre dnešok?

• Americká ľahká ropa je naďalej pod 79 USD za barel.
• Včerajší nárast opäť postupne stráca na význame, keďže úroveň ceny ostáva pod vypredaným tlakom. Dôvodom sú najmä vyhlásenia OPEC-u o tom, že organizácia neuvažuje o zvýšení produkcie.
• Úrovne zásob ropy, s ktorými bol svet oboznámený minulý týždeň, potvrdili momentálny prebytok, na základe ktorého naďalej očakávame pokles hodnoty.

Aký je dnešný výhľad na cenu zlata. Čo bude jej vývoj pôsobiť?

• Po včerajšom dni, ktorý bol pomerne chudobný na udalosti (v dôsledku štátneho sviatku v USA), dnes očakávame na kapitálových trhoch viac pohybu. Náš odhad pre cenu zlata držíme v pásme 1125 až 1148 a momentálne preferujeme pohyby na spodnú hranicu tohto pásma.

Cena paládia a platiny sa dostala až na svoje niekoľkomesačné maximum. Čo stojí za rastom cien týchto kovov?

• Oba kovy lámali rekordy tohoročných komoditných rastov a za posledné dni narástli o viac ako 1,3 %.
• Svetové investičné banky sa momentálne predbiehajú v predikciách rastu cien paládia a platiny, čo vyvoláva ich zvyšujúce sa nákupy, najmä zo strany fondov ETF. Avšak fyzická spotreba oboch spomenutých komodít v automobilovom priemysle ostáva naďalej bez väčších zmien.

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Well its practically official Kraft has bought Cadbury and Goldman Sachs is on drugs! Those at Goldie’s please don’t take offense, but calling that the UK will recover faster than any of its major counterparts is quite frankly reckless, irresponsible and foolhardy. I am yet to see one single piece of data or macroeconomic fundamental measure to support this view. But nonetheless GS speaks and the world listens (or at least the UK Telegraph newspaper) and subsequently here we are in the Cable and more importantly on multi month lows in the EURGBP which has been the primary cross driving the Cable strength in recent weeks. Cryptic comments from Alistair Darling as to the possible revision of recent new tax changes have also added to the Cable buying frenzy, but in an election year (only about 5 months away now) punters need to be a little more discerning as to how messages like this are ultimately interpreted. Where to from here?

Well simply put Cable remains bid and until it conclusively fails at the 1.6450/80 zone I am not prepared to stand in its way nor am I yet willing to buy the EURGBP until it does what the Cable needs to do around the 0.8730/50 levels. I fear there will be more stops lined up under earlier cleared levels at 0.8760 which will invariably take us to test the 0.8750 zone. Countering this view although admittedly half heartedly is the fact that we may see a squeeze in the EURUSD into the ZEW data out this morning, although I think if we do see a move higher it will be limited to 1.4450. The other piece of data that will be drawing much attention is the UK CPI number at 10.30CET where a bad print will likely see the Cable run lower into 1.6320 on a knee jerk reaction.

Other data due to day of note is the BOC meeting where no change is broadly expected but a change in tone or rhetoric should see the USDCAD correct recent weakness into first and now substantial short term resistance at 1.0330. As a value play in the short to medium term I still like this cross higher and continue as I have been buying dips into 1.0210/30 looking for more upside.

The USDJPY is looking precarious at best and despite being sidelined for the most part in recent trading sessions and the JAL bankruptcy all but priced in, I have a sneaking suspicion that be it today or tomorrow we should see the 90.30 level broken on the downside and stops taken out triggering a grind (much would to chop) into 89.80/90. Keep an eye on spread differentials in the US/JPY 10yrs for a guide (currently trading at 2.32).

I don’t really have a focus on much else today (still short the AUDUSD) and feel that with both Citi and IBM reporting today the remainder of risk appetite will be driven by these results. Keep an eye on the screens at 14.00CET for Citi results.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

18 ledna 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Let’s start with the fact that it’s a US holiday today and coupled with the first trading day of a new week, we are likely to see range bound and choppy trading at best. Of most interest (at least to me for the moment) is the incredibly bid tone in the Cable that is causing a lot of traders out there (both interbank and retail) a lot of pain. For those not sure why the Cable is here and still looking strong, all the blame lies in my view with Cadbury’s, the related bids for a corporate takeover (M&A flow) and the EURGBP which has been hostage to all of this since the last 2 weeks of last year. Having closed below 0.8850 on Friday this pair is set to test today intermediate support at 0.8775 with much firmer support coming in at 0.8730. What this means for the Cable is that we will see a test of 1.6360/80 today with good offers and decent sized stops sitting around those levels. Look for a clean out today and then reevaluate before looking to get short the Cable.

The EURUSD to me as noted in Fridays comment is still heavy and as above will be range bound in the absence of the US and any real data of note today. I think moves into 1.4430 or close enough need to be sold with a greater move lower before the end of the week looking to test and break 1.4250. Truthfully when it comes to the other major crosses I still hold the same views expressed in my Friday piece and don’t really expect any major surprises today, although in thinner liquidity nothing will surprise. Only thing worth mentioning is that the price action in my strategic AUDUSD short is still supportive of the trade and that’s even despite better inflation data over the weekend from Australia.

Best bet today is to keep your head down and look for developments to play out during the coming week.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.