29 ledna 2010

29/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kup, prodej, drž

Připravil Radim Dohnal, Saxo Bank

ROPA
Ceny ropy se už týden pohybují v klesajícím trendu. Na dnešek máme opatrný výhled, kdyš se bojíme negativního překvapení v datech HDP USA za 4Q. Nicméně předchozí výprodeje by mohli podpořit korekci nahoru, a proto ropu na dnešek cílujeme na 75.

DRAHÉ KOVY
Drahé kovy zažívají od dvacátého ledna pokles ceny. V dohledné době se nějakého zlepšení asi nedočkáme. Na zlatě nadále držíme náš střednědobý cíl 870 USD/unce a podobně jsme negativní i dnes.

ZLATO
Zlato je nejkomplexnější komodita, kdy cena je ovlivněna jak reálnou poptávkou průmyslu, klenotníků; dále jako uchovatel bohatství a ochrana před nejistotou. Faktory jsou tedy objednávky z průmyslu, poptávka klenotníků a nabídka obyčejných lidí. Určitě nejvýznamějším faktorem jsou prodeje a nákupy centrálních bank, kdy zlato je nadále jednou z významných součástí devizových rezerv.

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Bernanke reconfirmed for a second term!
Hoorah! Scratch that off the long list of likely events hitting risk aversion.

Outside of this overnight as we have seen all week were more comments out of Davos hitting the wires from the World Economic Forum. Utter nonsense that serve no purpose other than to swing the market back and forth violently. All of a sudden every country under the sun is paying lip service to new proposals and variations on the theme of Obama’s plan to overhaul banking regulation. And yes we’ve all heard it many times before predominantly in the months following the collapse of Lehman’s and even later when all government’s were scurrying to cover their behinds from the systemic risk inherent in a globalised system. But folks what of it? We’re now the better part of 2 years on from the focal point of this crisis and little if anything has fundamentally changed in the regulatory framework, so what makes anyone think that its all of a sudden going to start happening now.

Personally I think it’s all smoke and mirrors but what it does in fact do is serve to highlight the nervous nature of a massively overbought market. Bulls remain in control but only sort of right now and that control is slipping more and more with each passing day. The big question for everyone now is will they after all this manage to wrangle back full control or are we set for the bears to have their time to shine in the medium term… Time will tell.

Elsewhere a macro think tank reported overnight that there should be no rate hike in Australia next week which also didn’t help an ailing domestic cross in the face of commodity and China uncertainty coupled with a strengthening USD. We were able to take out the 0.8930 support and trade as low as 0.8885 with a small bounce back this morning but only as far as the previous breakout level. The USDCAD suffered a similar fate in the face of slipping gold and oil prices printing a high of 1.0700 where it ran into small offers but only as far as 1.0620 where it still looks bid.

The EURUSD on the back of all of the above has seen fresh multi month lows printed overnight trading as low as 1.3911, bouncing from there but overall still looking heavy in the near term. Bounces higher into 1.4030 to 1.4100 provide good chances to get short for a deeper move into 1.3850.

The Cable still looks heavy and as you might have guessed I am still a greenback bull for now. Rallies in the Cable need to be sold and anything you see into 1.6250 is definitely the place to be getting short. I remain strategically short the GBPCHF from a new average of 1.7070 and look for moves back into 1.6750 and lower.

USDJPY?!?!?!? Well toss a coin right now. I do think in the longer term we have more upside into 95 but for now on all of this risk aversion I think we’ll be seeing 88.50 printing sooner rather than later.

Next on my radar in the coming week or so is the NZDJPY and/or AUDNZD for new strategic positions. I’ll keep you posted.

Data wise today important release include US GDP, Euro zone CPI and CAD GDP. Briefly commenting on the US figure, it’s worth noting that all tier 1 banks have been calling a vast improvement in this number and as always I remain the contrarian and think that consensus of 4.5% should probably be the best number we see printed, if not even a little lower. Bare in mid Goldman Sachs has been calling 5.3/5%!!!!!

As always on a Friday I say don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

28 ledna 2010

28/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akcie ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie vyssie. Hlavnymi udalostami dna bolo rozhodnutie FED-u o nezmeneni urokovych sadzieb a rast akcii spolocnosti Apple Inc.

- Obchodovanie sa nezacalo pozitivne, ale po potvrdeni nizkych urokovych sadzieb FED-om pocas dostatocne dlheho obdobia a predstaveni noveho vyrobku spolocnosti Apple Inc. sa nalada na trhu vyrazne zlepsila.

- Komentar FED-u neprinisiel nic nove, len informacie o postupnom ozivovani US ekonomiky a nizkych sadzbach na urovni 0-0.25%. FED zaroven potvrdil ukoncenie programu na nakup MBS (Mortgage Back Securities) v marci, tak ako bolo planovane podobne ako aj likviditu, ktorou zaplavili trh po krachu Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. v septembri 2008. Rast sadzieb nenastane v dohladnej dobe, kedze ekonomika nie je dostatocne silna aj napriek relativne dobrym fundamentom a hospodarskym vysledkom firiem.

- Apple Inc. navodil pozitivnu naladu na trhu po zverejneni noveho produktu iPad, ktory by mal vyrazne zmenit knizny trh podobne ako iPod zmenil hudobny. Apple Inc. spravne nastavil cenu, ktora by mala umoznit pristup iPadu velkemu mnozstvu spotrebitelov, co potvrdila aj reakcia verejnosti pri zverejneni. Cena zakladneho modelu je na urovni 499 USD, co je polovica odhadovanej ceny analytikmi.

- Akcie U.S. Steel Corp. opat poklesli potom co ratingova agentura Fitch Ratings znizila zakladny rating na neinvesticny. Stalo sa tak den potom ako vyrobca ocele zverejnil stvrtu stvrtrocnu stratu kvoli poklesu zisku zapricineho pomalym ozivovanim ekonomiky.

- Akcie spolocnosti Berkshire Hathaway Inc. vzrastli, potom co spolocnost vlastnena Warrenom Buffettom bola vybrana aby bola zahrnuta do S&P 500 indexu.

- Boeing Inc. ukoncil obchodovanie vyssie po zverejneni zisku za Q4 2009.

- Celkovo nalada na trhu je pro-rizikova po vcerajsom zasadnuti FOMC a prejav US prezidenta Barracka Obamu o stave unie, kde slubil riesit vysoku nezamestnanost v USA.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 5670 s cielom na 5700. Stop loss pod 5655.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 5249 s cielom na 5280. Stop loss pod 5233.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 1098 s cielom na 1104. Stop loss pod 1094.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Anheuser-Busch I., Banco Popular es., Hermes, SES, Sodexho, Associated Briti., Tesco.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): ACS, Alstom, BMW, Carrefour, Crédit Agricole, Daimler, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Post, 3I Group, Anglo American, Antofagasta, AstraZeneca, Autonomy Corp, Aviva, BG Group, BHP Billiton, BP, BT Group.

ZLATO-
Zlato zostava stale pod vplyvom vyovja USD. Podporna uroven je na 1086, nasledne 1075 a rozhodujuca podporna uroven je na 1060 USD/uncu. Celkovo ma trh byciu naladu vdaka fundamentalnym faktorom.

- Celkovo vsak odporucame opatrnost pri otvarani dlhych pozicii, kedze USD je hlavnym faktorom ovplyvnujucim ceny zlata.

- Zaujimave obchody s relativnou hodnotou mozu byt zlato/striebro a zlato/platina.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1092 s cielom na 1104 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1088.

STRIEBRO
- Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je neutralny.

ROPA
- Ceny ropy boli nizsie aj napriek poklesu zasob tejto suroviny v USA za posledny tyzden (pokles zasob -3888K vs. +1500K ocakavane). Rast zasob paliv bola hlavna pricina poklesu ceny ropy, pretoze to znamena mensi dopyt po palivach (zasoby + 1985K vs. 900K ocakavane).

- V priebehu najblizsieho mesiaca vidime ropy v pasme 73 – 88 USD/barel. Celkovy trend vyssie je zatial nedotknuty. Podporna uroven je na 75.25 (100-dnovy klzavy priemer) zatial co rezistencia sa nachadza na 77.80 a 80.70 USD/barel.

- Trend smerom hore by nemal byt ovplyvneny ani nedavno ohlasenymi obmedzeniami na obchodovanie s komoditami US bankami, obmedzovanim uverovej expanzie v Cine ako aj posilnenim USD.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne pozitivny ako aj na rizikovejsie aktiva po vcerajsom zasadani FOMC. Doporucujeme nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 73.50 s cielom na 75.00 USD/barel. Stop pod 72.80.

EUR/USD -
Zasadanie FED-u neprinieslo ziadne prekvapenie: urokove sadzby zostanu na nizkych urovniach dostatocne dlho, ukoncenie nakupu MBS koncom marca (ako bolo planovane), stahovanie poskytnutej likvidity, US ekonomika sa postupne zotavuje ale je ozivenie je velmi krehke.

- Mierne pozitivnejsi komentar predstavuje moznost zvysovania sadzieb v septembri (tato moznost je uz plne zaratana v cenach FED Fund Futures).

- Grecko poprelo vcerajsie spravy, ze Cina nakupila grecke dlhopisy v objeme 25 mld. EUR, co by znamenalo dalsiu diverzifikaciu mimo USD. Situacia okoo mozneho statneho bankrotu Grecka negativne vplyva na EUR.

- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 1.3980 s cielom na 1.4065. Stop pod 1.3925.

27 ledna 2010

27/1 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akcie ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie v cervenych cislach. Bolo to zapricinene hlavne spekulaciami okolo zacatia postupneho stahovania likvidity FED-om. Akcie poklesli aj napriek ovela lepsim udajom o spotrebitelskej dovere a lepsim hospodarskym vysledkom firiem.

- Alcoa Inc. sa posunula vyssie na zaklade zlepsienia odporucania analytikov.

- Apple Inc. zhodnotil po zverejneni lepsich vysledkov vdaka rekordnym predajom pocitacov Macintosh a iPhones. Dnes pripravuje predstavenie noveho vyrobku tzv. „tablet“.

- Akcie U.S. Steel Corp. poklesli potom co vyrobca ocele zverejnil stvrtu stvrtrocnu stratu kvoli poklesu zisku zapricineho pomalym ozivovanim ekonomiky.

- Podobne je na tom aj spolocnost Yahoo! Inc., ktora taktiez zverejnila horsie ako ocakavane vysledky vdaka slabemu ekonomickemu rastu a nizsim prijmom.

- General Motors Co. suhlasil s predajom svedskej automobilky Saab holandskemu vyrobcovi luxusnych aut Spyker Cars NV za cenu 74 mil. USD. GM bude mat takisto prioritne akcie v hodnote 326 mil. USD v automobilke Saab.

- Kedze znovuzvolenie Bena Bernankeho na post sefa FED-u je takmer iste, dnesne obchodovanie sa bude niest v znameni zverejnovania hospodarskych vysledkov spolocnosti Boeing, Caterpillar, ConocoPhilips, zasadanim FOMC a prejavom US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithnera a dalsich predstavitelov US administrativy v spojitosti s pomocou (bail-out) AIG Group, co by mohlo vyvolat pochybnosti o spravnosti postupu a viest k odstupeniu Timothy Geithnera.

- Ocakavame zverejnenie lepsich udajov o predajoch novych domov v USA, ktore spolu aj so znovuzvolenim Bena Bernankeho budu predstavovat pozitivum pre riziko. Odporucame si otvorit dlhe pozicie v akciach a nakupy po poklesoch pred rozhodnuti FOMC o urokovej miere.

- Taktiez odporucame sledovat komentar FOMC k vyvoju US ekonomiky, ktory bude velmi dolezity pre dalsie smerovanie.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 5640 s cielom na 5680. Stop loss pod 5625.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 5250 s cielom na 5290. Stop loss pod 5230.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po zhodnoteni ku 1088 s cielom na 1100. Stop loss pod 1084.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Alcatel – Lucent, BBVA, Danone, Delhaize Group, Finmeccanica, Fortis, Hermes, Inditex, MunichRe, Philips Electron, AstraZeneca, Autonomy Corp., BAT, BG Group, Experian, G4S Plc, Reckitt Benckise, Shire, United Utilities.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): ArcelorMittal, Axa, Banco Santander, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Post, Fiat, Heineken, ING Groep, Intesa Sanpaolo, BAE Systems, BHP Billiton, Cobham, Fresnillo, Intertek Group, Kingfisher, Lloyds Banking G., London Stock exc., Lonmin, Next.

ZLATO-
Pocas vcerajsieho dna sa zlato posunulo vyssie na zaklade spekulacii, ze bude nasledovat opat dlhodobejsia rally na trhu. Zlatu sa podarilo udrzat nad 100-dnovym klzavym priemerom na urovni 1085 USD/uncu po vyraznom poklese minuly tyzden.

- Pri pohlade na ostatne kovy s vacsim priemyselnym pouzitim sme zaznamenali pokles sposobeny hlavne restriktivnejsou uverovou politikou zo strany Ciny.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 1105 s cielom na 1115 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1100.

STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj po prelomeni urovne 16.70 s cielom na 16.50 USD/uncu. Stop nad 16.80.

ROPA-
Ceny ropy boli nizsie, co bolo sposobene posilnenim USD. Takisto vyznamny faktor je snaha Ciny spomalit ekonomicku a uverovu expanziu.

- Analytici ocakavaju, ze zasoby ropy v US opat vzrastli.

- Saudsko-arabsky minister pre ropu vyhlasil, ze ceny ropy v pasme 70-80 USD/barel su optimalne (poskytuju dostatok prijmov a nebmedzuju ekonomicky rast vo svete). Bolo pocut aj spekulacie o nutnosti znizenia tazby OPEC-om.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je neutralny.

EUR/USD -
EUR nepomohli ani omnoho lepsie udaje GE IFO indexu co potvrdilo, ze cisto ekonomicke ozivenie nic neznamena oproti rozpoctovym problemom niektorych krajin Eurozony.

- Takisto aj vcerajsie predstavenie portugalskeho rozpoctu nepomohlo vyvratit pochybnosti o financnom zdravi krajiny.

- Je mozne, ze EUR sa bude pozerat na urovne okolo 1.400, mozno nizsie po FOMC komentaroch.

- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je neutralny. V priebehu dna ocakavame konsolidaciu v pasme 1.4020-1.4120 EURUSD, ktora bude nasledovana prelomenin tohto pasma. Odporucame uzavretie pozicii pred rozdhodnutim FOMC o urokovych sadzbach o 20:15 SEC (neocakavame zmenu). Mimoriadne dolezity vsak bude komentar k ekonomickemu vyvoju.

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Risk, risk, risk!

I must admit I was kind of hoping that this year would get off to a slightly different start in that the equity markets would play less of a leading role in the FX markets and that there would (if not immediately then certainly sooner rather than later) a more than moderate decoupling of the risk trade from the major crosses with a return to fundamentals, then again I was also hoping to be owning a Porsche at some point this year, sadly however it looks like neither will be happening.

So let’s briefly revisit if we will the factors currently affecting risk;

• Bernanke reelection
• China tightening credit lines, CAR
• Obama’s new legislative changes
• North Korea fires on South Korean waters, South Korea fires back

And naturally as a result the equity markets are firmly under pressure and unless we see a legitimate move higher before (in my view before next Tuesday) the fear is for a far deeper correction than what we’ve seen thus far. But enough doom and gloom let’s look at what we had out overnight and what lies ahead for the day at hand.

Comments were the main catalyst overnight for the price action we saw, with the likes of Roubini stating that the Euro zone is far worse a shape than anyone readily acknowledges and points directly to Spain as the next ticking time bomb, EURUSD goes lower on this. The Euro groups Juncker stated his displeasure with the overvalued EUR and strongly undervalued USD and Yuan.
The Australian CPI data came in a little better than expected, the AUDUSD failed to impress with its subsequent move, however all local pundits are now calling an almost definite 4th rate rise from the RBA next Tuesday, AUD still goes lower.

Looking to the day today we have little on tap other than US new home sales and of course later tonight the FOMC decision. Now we all know quite well rates will stay on hold and I’m prepared to wager almost anything that the rhetoric also remains unchanged. Low rates for an extended period…. But nonetheless all eyes will be firmly set on Bernanke’s disposition and tone.

On the majors there is little to add today that I haven’t already written in the last few days…
At the time of print the EURUSD has broken below 1.4050 and taken out some weak stops, further progress lower is likely to be hampered by 1.4000 barrier protection, but I would expect that this level will likely break after the FOMC washout later tonight.

The USDCAD continues its grind higher and will make (a successful) attempt at talking at good offers around the 1.0680/90 level driving it into 1.0720 targets.
Cable is practically an enigma to me at the moment and I maintain my bearish stance but rather than get caught in the all the whippiness that it brings I remain strategically short in my GBPCHF looking to add more above 1.0720/30.

USDJPY broke below the 89.30 Fibo level overnight and now puts pressure on 88.80/90 where I would be considering initiating short term speculative longs targeting 90.70.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

26 ledna 2010

Kúp, predaj, podrž... (aktuálne prognózy trhov)

Aktuálne prognózy Saxo Bank k dennému vývoju na akciových, menových a komoditných trhoch
(26. januára 2010)

Americké akciové trhy včera posilnili v dôsledku špekulatívnych teórii. Dnes nás ešte čaká zverejnenie údajov z US trhu nehnuteľností, informácie o spotrebiteľskej dôvere a index podnikateľskej nálady v GE. Na čo by ste odporúčali investorom sústrediť sa a ktoré zverejnené dáta by si nemali nechať ujsť? Aký je dnešný výhľad na komoditný a akciový trh?

• Hlavným faktorom včerajšieho rastu amerických akcií boli špekulácie o znovuzvolení terajšieho šéfa FED-u Bena Bernankeho. Špekulácie mali väčší vplyv na trh ako rekordný prepad predaja existujúcich domov v decembri 2009. Pokles bol v hlavnej miere zapríčinený plánovaným zrušením daňových úľav pre prvokupcov vo výške 8 000 USD v novembri (výhody však boli predĺžené).
• Finančný sektor sa posunul vyššie, keď sa aj niektorí republikáni v US Senáte vyslovili za znovuzvolenie terajšieho šéfa FED-u.
• Akcie spoločnosti Intel Corp. rástli po tom, čo investori začali špekulovať o profitovaní najväčšieho výrobcu mikročipov na svete z nárastu predaja nových modelov počítačov, ktorými si domácnosti a firmy nahradia staršie. Tomu by mala výrazne pomôcť výmena operačných systémov u zákazníkov za Windows 7 a uvedenie nových mikročipov.
• Akcie spoločnosti Johnson Controls Inc. rástli po informáciách o zlepšení výhľadu tohtoročných hospodárskych výsledkov.
• Čína pokračuje v obmedzovaní poskytovania úverov a nálada na trhoch sa vyznačuje averziou k riziku.
• Dnes bude zverejnených niekoľko dôležitých údajov z trhu nehnuteľností a spotrebiteľskej dôvery v USA, ako aj index podnikateľskej nálady v GE. Hospodárske výsledky dnes zverejnia: Du Pont, Johnson & Johnson, Yahoo!
• Na ceny medi majú vplyv obrovské zásoby v Číne, ktorých veľká časť sa používa v priemysle a stavebníctve. Za posledne obdobie sme videli rast cien medi sprevádzaný korekciami. Nie každá korekcia cien medi bola po nárastoch sprevádzaná poklesom pod predošlú najvyššiu hodnotu. To by mohlo znamenať, že med je zrelá na otvorenie krátkych pozícií. Na druhej strane je však dopyt po komoditách veľký, čo bude pomáhať aj cenám medi.
• Výhľad na dnešný deň pre DAX je mierne negatívny. Odporúčame predaje po zhodnotení ku 5640 s cieľom na 5600. Stop loss nad 5652.
• Výhľad na dnešný deň pre FTSE je mierne negatívny. Odporúčame predaje po zhodnotení ku 5260 s cieľom na 5220. Stop loss nad 5275.
• Výhľad na dnešný deň pre S&P500 je mierne negatívny. Odporúčame predaje po zhodnotení ku 1196 s cieľom na 1087. Stop loss nad 1091.
• Dnešné odporúčanie na nákup (technické indikátory): Akzo Nobel, Philips Electron, Barclays.
• Dnešné odporúčanie na predaj (technické indikátory): Adidas, Air Liquide, Alcatel – Lucent, Allianz, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, Axa, Banco Popolare, Banco Santander, 3I Group, Allaince Trust P., Anglo American, Asociated Briti., BG Group, BHP Billiton, Cobham, Fresnillo, G4S Plc, Home Retail.
• Dnešný výhľad na striebro je mierne negatívny. Odporúčame predaj po prelomení úrovne 16,86 s cieľom na 16,50 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17,00.

Po minulotýždňovom poklese a stratách možno aj na trhu so zlatom sledovať nárast cien. Aký ďalší vývoj očakávame?
• Počas včerajšieho dňa sa zlato posunulo vyššie na základe špekulácií o oslabovaní USD. USD bude aj v nasledujúcich dňoch hlavný faktor vplývajúci na ceny zlata.
• Minulotýždňový pokles cien zlata môže byť zaujímavý pre investorov na otvorenie nových dlhých pozícií. Dopyt po fyzickom zlate bude do určitej miery podporený aj rastúcim dopytom v Číne pred oslavami Nového lunárneho roku.
• Dnešný výhľad na zlato je mierne negatívny. Odporúčame predaj po prelomení úrovne 1 092 s cieľom na 1 083 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1 096.

Ceny ropy vzrástli. Čo vplývalo na toto posilnenie? Aký dnešný vývoj pre zlato predpokladáte?
• Ceny ropy boli pozitívne ovplyvnené rastom akcií na základe špekuláciami o znovuzvolení terajšieho šéfa FED-u.
• Rope pomohlo aj neprelomenie podpornej úrovne 74 USD/barel, ako aj špekulácie o prehnanosti minulotýždňových predajov.
• Ďalším vplývajúcim faktorom, ktorý posunul úroveň vyššie boli informácie o úniku ropy z tankera na vodnom kanáli v Texase. Počas odstraňovania havárie je kanál uzavretý, čo znemožňuje zásobovanie tamojších rafinérií.
• Dnešný výhľad na ropu je mierne negatívny. Odporúčame predaje po nárastoch smerom ku 75,00 s cieľom na 73,00 USD/barel. Stop nad 75,50.

Čo dnes sa udialo a čo môžeme očakávať na eurodolárovom trhu?
• Obchodovanie s EURUSD je ovplyvnené celkovou averziou k riziku. Veľmi dôležitý udaj o podnikateľskej nálade v GE bude zverejnený o 10:00 SEC. Akékoľvek pozitívne čísla znamenajú hospodárske oživenie v Európe a následne vyšší hospodársky rast, čo by mohlo pôsobiť ako pozitívum pre grécku ekonomiku pri splácaní dlhov a zvyšovaní daní.
• Prípadné opätovné nezvolenie Bena Bernankeho za šéfa FED-u, by vyvolalo turbulencie na finančných trhoch, averziu k riziku a pokles USD. FX trhy sú výrazne ovplyvnené touto neistotou. US Senát ma rozhodnúť do piatku.
• Dnešný výhľad na EURUSD je mierne negatívny. Vidíme, že EURUSD sa nepodarí prekonať úroveň 1,4130 pred opätovným otestovaním nedávnych dolných úrovni na 1,4030 EURUSD. Stop nad 1,4185.

Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

It seems that relative value is not only appropriate but also timely given the developments we’ve seen overnight in markets.
Where to begin?

Ok let’s start with the fact that risk aversion is now the new black with all major indices, led by Asia, sold down on average 3% lower overnight, thanks in large part to more talk of China going down the tightening path (albeit indirectly) using the old chestnut of increasing capital reserve requirements for a number of its largest domestic banks. The usual suspects were moved as a result including a fresh bid tone in the JPY predominantly through the crosses with the AUDJPY and EURJPY giving up most ground while USDJPY understandably was essentially sidelined caught between the normal rush to buy the greenback (despite Obama) as well as the JPY. Nonetheless the USDJPY is looking more precariously at the bottom end of recent ranges and in all likelihood will be testing overnight lows once more at 89.55.

Giving the JPY some more impetus was of course last night’s BOJ decision which left rates unchanged and not much said about further QE. So from this we take that QE remains unchanged for the time being but the jawboning is set to continue with fresh talk hitting the wires from the press conference held this morning, truthfully sending nothing but mixed messages (what else is new from Japan?), I still remain JPY bullish in the near term given recent developments and would feel far more comfortable expressing this view in the respective crosses rather than direct through USDJPY. Adding a little more confusion to the overall picture is the fact that Japan received another downgrade overnight to a negative outlook from S&P…. Interesting but in times of risk aversion one thing has been proven JPY remains bid.

In the Cable we’re looking for the GDP number due this morning and the market as a whole is looking for confirmation that the recession did in fact end in Q4 of last year. Anything resembling a print on expectations will see the Cable retain its very bid tone and as you can imagine anything better than 0.4 will see this thing fly higher with small stops above 1.6280 and 1.6320 being the first targets to get taken out. Given how the market has positioned itself over the last 24hrs though a print of anything even slightly worse will see this cross hit and hit hard with 1.6080 being the next intuitive target on the downside. I don’t think the recession is over and I remain bearish the cross, but today of all days’ play it cautiously and perhaps add to my GBPCHF short again should come into that sell zone once more.

On the EURUSD, this thing is being hit like everything else on the back of risk aversion and the downside continues to look vulnerable. Plenty of stops line up below 1.4050 and today could be the day we see the 1.3900 handle printed at some point. I remain a seller of rallies into 1.4150/1.4230 but suggest keeping an eye on the US data in Consumer Confidence, Case-Shiller and the Richmond Fed numbers to get a better guide as to where we’re likely to go on the day.

USDCAD remains well bid and is now still looking higher towards the 1.0650/1.0720 mark, if you’re not long already buying dips is recommended but the risk reward scenario at present levels isn’t the most rewarding so be careful. Likewise the AUDUSD continues to go lower and now looks for the important breakout level of 0.8930. Don’t expect too much more upside ahead of next week’s RBA meeting.

Good luck out there today and to all those that care (other Australians like me) happy Australia day!

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

25 ledna 2010

How to get more Bang for your Buck trading FX

Good afternoon,

Apologies for the absolute cliché that is the subject line of this email but at the heart of what I’m going to be writing below is the very simple principle that all of us apply to our everyday lives and in most instances do it as naturally and unconsciously as drawing breath. I’m talking, of course, about the natural human instinct to seek value in anything and everything we do and especially buy or sell.
Ultimately no one wants to give anything away for less than they believe it’s worth and equally so you’ll be hard pressed to find anyone (perhaps the occasional billionaire) that is prepared to pay more for something than they intrinsically think it should cost.

So the obvious question is why is the same principle not fundamentally utilized when it comes to trading financial markets and more specifically FX?

Don’t get me wrong of course there are those out there that do, but for the most part it seems many traders particularly those in the retail sector fail to look for good value trades and just follow the herd when it comes to the major (or even in some instances minor) pairs.

In a nutshell what I’m talking about is the “Relative Value Trade”, simply put the concept here is to look to trade pairs that for fundamental reasons are either over or undervalued against one another. I know this sounds painfully obvious, but sitting where I do and have done now for the better part of 16 years, you would be shocked to see how little this is actually (literally and effectively) put into practice.

Starting at the beginning, let’s consider the characteristics of what an average RV trade looks like;

• An average (min) 3-4 trade horizon
• Have significantly less volatility than other pairs
• Technical indicators need to confirm in a clearly recognizable (textbook manner) the correctness of the trade
• Entry and exit will be within a predefined region/zone thereby giving an average entry and exit level, but only one stop loss for the whole position
• One currency will be overbought/sold against another in spite of genuine economic fundamentals proving otherwise

It is actually the last of these points that is perhaps the most relevant because you are evaluating a trade based on the fact that everything is pointing to another outcome yet the market finds itself in this position. I illustrate all this rhetoric with the simple example below.

Recently I sent out 2 strategic trade recommendations within days of one another, in which on the first I was a seller of the CHF/JPY while on the other I was a seller of GBP/CHF. So if we look at these individually;

Short CHF/JPY In this case I am a seller of the CHF and buy the JPY
Short GBP/CHF In this case I am a seller of the GBP and buy the CHF

Logically most would look at that and say that I’m either confused or have something wrong, because first I sell the CHF and within days I buy the CHF, but obviously it’s against different crosses and in both instances I look for the relative value in that I think the GBP on fundamentals has been overbought and while I still believe the CHF has room to go lower I think that the GBP will depreciate much faster than the CHF. For those of you that have been following my daily comments you’ll remember that while I sold the CHF/JPY I was happy to be long of the USD/JPY, which again intuitively sounds counterproductive, but in relative value terms makes perfect sense.

So what to take form all of this as a client looking to increase your overall returns while mitigating as much risk as possible;
Simple really, spend a bit more time examining macroeconomic fundamentals and put them in a comparative light to look for opportunities (discrepancies) whereby despite all other measure a currency is either overbought or oversold against another and as always use technical indicators (the fewer the better) to confirm the timing of entry, exit, stop loss and limit levels.

I hope this in some way helps, because in markets and conditions such as the current one simply trading intraday for the sake of 30/40 pips is not only seldom rewarding but more often than not quite risky and costly especially in the major crosses.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

We’re going to be in for a relatively quiet day today as we remain light on the data front, in fact virtually completely free of any event risk save for the US existing home sales later this afternoon. So what does that mean for a market that was shaken up rather significantly towards the tail end of last week?

In simple terms increased risk aversion and small flows across the board. The contributing factors are of course President Obama’s legislative tirade, the uncertainty (although now waning) over Bernanke’s second term confirmation and chatter that China is now looking at the start of a new tightening cycle. In the scheme of things I feel that all these factors will come to pass in the coming weeks and on reflection will prove to be but a small speed bump on the road. At worst Obama’s plans will end up being a watered down version of their former selves if even at all passed, Bernanke will be there for another shot at getting an ailing economy off the ground and China will find a way to seemingly tighten without causing even the hint of a crack in the current resource bubble.

So while today is going to prove to be fairly quiet I’ll take a closer look at the following crosses;

GBPUSD: I remain bearish the cross and now see the tide turning. The only thing giving the Cable any sort of bid tone is the EURGBP which currently remains under pressure. Nevertheless I think rallies into 1.6190/6200 (on the off chance 1.6150/60 breaks) need to be sold and once 1.6080 is broken on the downside this will act as further confirmation of more downside.

EURUSD: Just like the Cable above I am still bearish here too, but honestly probably a little less certain if only there seems to be more work to be done here before we do legitimately go any lower. 1.4210/30 holds the key and 1.4250/60 the ultimate upside resistance to confirm that we’re still on our way lower. A retest and break of 1.4090 is now necessary for me to feel more comfortable of my 1.3900 intermediate target.

USDJPY: It’s an interesting one this one, the market is calling it lower (for obvious risk aversion fears) while the technicals paint an ever so slightly different picture. Where do I see it? Well in simple terms I think in the interim 90.70/80 caps the upside while 89.80/70 is potentially and looks a little vulnerable to be broken. Some are calling a break here the signal for a retest of 85, personally I think that’s a little too farfetched in the current climate.

AUDUSD: I hold my bearish view while the market now awaits the RBA on Feb 2nd. I think 0.8980/90 will form and maintain a base in the lead up to the meeting while 0.9135/50 should keep the upside capped.

USDCAD: I like it higher and my target for now remains 1.0625/30. Pullbacks into 1.0470 present good buying for more upside.


Best regards,

Ken Veksler