6/2: NOVINKY Z TRHŮ S RADIMEM DOHNALEM

Jak se aktuálně vyvýjí cena ropy?
Březnová nyní 40,65. Cena je ovlivněna daty o zásobách a dalšími opatřeními na stimulaci ekonomik, zejména americké. Kroky OPECU mají spíše malý dopad na cenu. Kupujeme směrem na 43 nebo prodáváme na zlomu 39.46.

Akcie jsou v poslední době jak na houpčce bez jasného trendu. Co by ste v této situaci doporučoval investorům?
Sledovat zprávy, nadále zejména z USA. Dnes to jsou data z amerického trhu práce, kdy my čekáme pokles počtu zaměstnanců o dalších 540 000.

Jak byste komentoval poslední vývoj české koruny?
Vysoká volatilita, i malé objednávky mohou posunout kursem. Proto ve středu odpoledne posílila o 40h. Včera po tiskové konferenci ČNB posílila o dalších 40h. Nyní aktuálně 27,67. Tato korekce o Korunu během dvou dní je velmi silná. My se v příštích měsících bojíme dalšího oslabení.

4/2: ZAUJÍMAVÝ DEŇ PRE EURO

Euro pod výpredajným tlakom

Trhy dnes prekvapilo oslabenie Eura, ku ktorému došlo krátko po dnešnom znížení dlhodobých ratingov Ruska v domácej aj zahraničnej mene na úroveň BBB, vyhlásených agentúrou Fitch.

Tohtoročný vývoj na trhu cudzích mien nám potvrdil, že EUR, USD a RUB sú v úzkej korelácii. Kvôli naviazanosti ruskej ekonomiky na ceny komodít a kvôli pokračujúcemu odlevu zahraničneho kapitálu (v doterajšom objeme zhruba $290mld) je RUB pod obrovským výpredajným tlakom.

Od júna minulého roka RUB stratil už viac ako 55%. Tieto výpredaje sa uskutočňujú najmä na menovom páre USD/RUB, teda ruské ruble sa predávajú za USD. To znamená, že USD sa stáva pre investorov predávajúcich Ruble atraktívnejšou menou než Euro.

Okrem toho Ruská Centrálna Banka nakupuje USD, aby spomalila pokles RUB. Zatiaľ banka použila zhruba 2/3 svojich rezerv, v celkovej hodnote $210mld.

Tento jav vysvetľuje, prečo tlaky na zvýšenie parity USD/RUB výrazne korelujú s tlakmi na zníženie kurzu EUR/USD.


EUR/JPY

V prípade EUR/JPY investori taktiež vidia priestor na ďalsie zníženie kurzu. Keďže JPY je už nízkoúročenou menou, kdežto v EU sa počíta s ešte ďalším znížením úrokových sadzieb, JPY je v tejto dobe považovaný za ‚bezpečnejší prístav‘ ako EUR.

LATIN DAY AHEAD: 2.February

Venezuela bonds fell the most in Latin America since December on Hugo Chavez’s bid to abolish term limits; Argentina’s tax revenue probably set a record in January; Rio Tinto is in talks to sell a stake to Chinalco to raise funds and crude oil futures fall on concern fuel demand is slowing.

Chavez Bonds Worst in Latin America Amid President-for-Life Bid: Bond investors are telling Hugo Chavez he should be voted out of office instead of winning his campaign to serve as Venezuela’s president another 10 years.

Argentine Tax Income Probably Set Record in January: Week Ahead: Argentina’s government revenue probably rose to a record in January as workers who had contributed to private pension funds, which were seized by the government in December, began paying into the state social security system.

Rio Tinto in Talks to Sell Stake to Chinalco to Raise Funds: Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, may raise cash from Aluminum Corp. of China, tapping its largest shareholder to reduce $38.9 billion of debt.

Crude Oil Futures Fall on Concern That Fuel Demand Is Slowing

Crude oil fell in New York on concern that further economic contraction in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, may limit fuel demand.

MAIN COMPANIES:

BRAZIL

Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4 BZ): Preferred shares were downgraded to “hold” on Jan. 30 by Banco Safra SA analyst Victor Martins. Bradesco, Brazil’s second-biggest bank after the merger between Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA (ITAU4 BS) and Uniao de Bancos Brasileiros SA (UBBR11 BS), fell 1.2 percent to 20.80 reais.

Banco Indusval SA (IDVL4 BS): HSBC Brasil Bank SA, the Brazilian unit of HSBC Holdings Plc, said it now holds 8.8 percent of the company. HSBC’s Brazilian unit also said it owns

15 percent of Sao Carlos Empreendimentos e Participacoes SA

(SCAR3 BS). Indusval was unchanged at 5 reais. Empreendimentos rose 0.9 percent to 10.09 reais.

CHILE Cap SA (CAP CI): Net income last year was $293 million, according to a regulatory filing. Cap had profit of $236 million in 2007, Bloomberg data show. Chile’s biggest steelmaker fell 0.4 percent to 8,002.4 pesos.

COLOMBIA

Bancolombia SA (BCOLO CB): The board of Colombia’s biggest lender agreed to pay a dividend of 624 pesos per share in quarterly installments. That’s a 9.9 percent increase on last year’s payments, the bank wrote in a Jan. 30 regulatory filing.  Bancolombia rose 0.9 percent to 12,980 pesos.

LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS:

·         Brazil: The trade deficit was $845 million in January, compared with a surplus of $2.3 billion during December, according to the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Trade Ministry will report the data at 8 a.m. New York time.

·         The real fell 1.3 percent to 2.323 per dollar.

·         The yield on the zero-coupon, real-denominated bond due in January 2010 fell 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to

·         11.27 percent, according to Banco Votorantim.

Other prices in Latin American markets:

Argentina: The peso dropped 0.1 percent to 3.4885 per dollar.

The yield on the country’s inflation-linked peso bonds due in December 2033 rose one basis point to 16.55 percent, according to Citigroup Inc.’s local unit.

Crude oil update: 2.february

Not much to add this morning as we have seen three days of quiet range bound trading towards the lower end of the current trading range. This range is today between $39.75 and $47.00 and is defined by recent lows on CLH9 and 50 days MA.

The two attempts we had on the upside last week (43.60 and 43.44) got rejected quite quickly which leaves the risk of further downside risk open. The near month roll has started to widen again (CLH9-CLJ9 at $4.54) as we approach the monthly roll by long only commodity funds.

A potential strike among The United Steelworkers Union could affect 8.7% of refinery capacity leaving the market worried about the supply of products.

Support:  39.75  36.90

Resistance:  43.40  44.70  47.00  48.60