Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
Feeling a little more subdued this morning and quite happy that it's Friday, and better still a Friday that features the NFP numbers this afternoon. All in all that simply means that a market which was deathly quiet overnight will continue in the same vein until this afternoon when the market gets all giddy with nervous anticipation waiting to find out just how deep in the proverbial toilet the US really is.
Estimates on the street are pointing to a smaller (better) number on the actual change, but also a worse number on the overall official rate rising towards 10.3/4%. I (surprisingly even for me) expect a rather flat number and somewhat of an anticlimax to the whole event.
I think the rate will stay around the same level while the number might actually print a larger positive than the market anticipates (chances are though this will be eroded with revisions).
It really is all quiet on the western front otherwise, as the market is in no rush to commit to anything really fundamental relating to FX moves and the equity markets are running out of puff but still showing a bid tone coming into year end.
With regard the majors I see the following unfold into the weekend and perhaps into the early parts of next week;
USDJPY: It seems like the jawboning continues out of the officials down there, but for a change there seems to be some (if not limited) back up to it in the form of additional liquidity being thrown into the system. They claim this isn’t the end of it but until I see anything more firm I believe that further Yen weakness is limited and what we’ve seen so far t his week is simply a small clean out. We need to see 90.30/80 cleared and closed above on a daily basis to confirm that this intermediate downtrend is in fact over. I remain skeptical and therefore bearish the cross, sell rallies is the call and don’t be shy about scaling in. Targets remain the previous lows into 85.00
GBPUSD: I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today the Cable trades a range and I am a seller of the Cable strength into 1.6750/6800 targets on the bottom end are 1.6550 and 1.6470. It worked yesterday and believe it will continue to work, a seemingly easy way to earn approximately 1.75% on the move. The only cautionary note is that while it is indeed a range, I only play the sell side, as I fundamentally believe that the risk is for a breakout from 1.6470 into at least 1.6250.
EURUSD: This puppy is running out of puff, but having said that as I have maintained all week, pullbacks may prove to be deeper than anticipated into 1.4850, but even these provide good opportunities to gear up again into fresh longs with the topside limited into 1.5160/5200.
AUDUSD: Topside is limited at 0.9330/60 and I fade the move higher looking for retracements into 0.9150 and lower. There is plenty of hype around this cross, but being Australian myself I am naturally hesitant to believe it all or get caught up in the euphoria.
USDCAD: The good thing about coming into year end is that without any real commitment from market participants crosses naturally fall into ranges, and in the case of the USDCAD there is no exception I still sell 1.0700/0800 and buy it back at 1.0430/50. Not unlike the Cable though I only play this range from the short side.
To all I say a good weekend and safe helmet wearing.
04 prosince 2009
4/12 Ekonomický komentář
Pripravil Luboš Spousta, Saxo Bank
ZLATO se dnes po několika dnech, kdy pravidelně každé ráno zdolávalo nové rekordy, drží kolem 1210ti dolarů.
Dnesni vyhled na zlato mame negativni. V prvni rade dnes ocekavame posileni dolaru, coz by melo byt pro zlato podporou a pak samozrejme ani zlato nemuze nepretrzite rust a po tech narustech se jevilo jiz jako prekoupene.
ROPA se stále drží hladiny 77mi dolarů.
I na ropu mame dnes negativni vyhled. Jako zasadni vidime predevsim ohlaseni dat z trhu prace, kde ocekavame negativni prekvapeni a proto pokles rizikovych aktiv vcetne ropy, proto by se mohla ropa podrzet pod 77 dolary
EURCZK
Koruna tento týden posiluje s růstem rizikových aktiv aktuálně až na hranici 25,78.
ZLATO se dnes po několika dnech, kdy pravidelně každé ráno zdolávalo nové rekordy, drží kolem 1210ti dolarů.
Dnesni vyhled na zlato mame negativni. V prvni rade dnes ocekavame posileni dolaru, coz by melo byt pro zlato podporou a pak samozrejme ani zlato nemuze nepretrzite rust a po tech narustech se jevilo jiz jako prekoupene.
ROPA se stále drží hladiny 77mi dolarů.
I na ropu mame dnes negativni vyhled. Jako zasadni vidime predevsim ohlaseni dat z trhu prace, kde ocekavame negativni prekvapeni a proto pokles rizikovych aktiv vcetne ropy, proto by se mohla ropa podrzet pod 77 dolary
EURCZK
Koruna tento týden posiluje s růstem rizikových aktiv aktuálně až na hranici 25,78.
03 prosince 2009
3/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Dow Jones uzavrel mierne nizsie, ked 2% prepad cien ropy stiahol so sebou akcie Exxon Mobil Corp. a Chevron Corp. JPMorgan Chase & Co. poklesla na zaklade neistoty spojenej so zmenami pravidiel obchodovania s derivatmi, ktore by mohli znizit prijmy z tychto obchodov.
- Mozna strategia pre dnesny den: Nakupy po poklesoch pred zverejnenim udajov o nezmestnanosti a nasledne uzatvaranie dlhych pozicii pred zverejnenim udajov o ISM Non-Manufacturing.
- Vysvetlenie: Kedze minuly tyzden bol kratky a nezamestnani mali len tri dni na registraciu, tak udaje by mohli byt lepsie, co by mohlo podporit rast akciovych trhov podobne ako aj informacia o tom, ze Bank of America splati 45 mld. USD vladnej pomoci (program TARP) co by mohlo znamenat, ze BoA ma dobry cashflow. Na druhej strane ocakavame horsie udaje o ISM Non-Manufacturing, co by mohlo znamenat korekciu.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1111 s cielom na 1120. Stop pod 1107.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5771 s cielom pri 5834. Stop pod 5730.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5322 s cielom na 5371. Stop pod 5300.
ROPA
- Ropa sa posunula na nizsie urovne po vcerajsom zverejneni vyssich zasob tejto suroviny (zverejnene 2091K vs. -400K ocakavane)
- Vyvoj cien je stale pod vplyvom nejednoznacnosti ekonomickeho ozivenia a mozneho konca recesie.
- Dnes mame na ropu mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 77.10 s cielom na 79.00 USD/barel. Stop pod 76.10.
ZLATO-
Zlato sa posunulo na rekordne urovne okolo 1221 USD/uncu ako alternativa k USD.
- Je vela investorov a spekulantov, ktori sa pozeraju na zlato ako ochranu pred slabnucim USD, ale je potrebne si uvedomit, ze svetove zasoby tohto kovu nie su neobmedzene.
- Vyvoj cien zlata bude aj do buducna vo velkej miere zavisie na vyvoji USD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1213 s cielom na 1223 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1210.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj po prelomeni urovne 19.09 s cielom na 18.88 USD/uncu. Stop nad 19.17.
EUR/USD
- Obchodovanie s EURUSD by dnes malo byt v znameni udajov z Eurozony. O 13:45 (SEC) ocakavame vyhlasenie ECB o urokovych sadzbach a o 14:30 (SEC) bude mat prejav prezident ECB Jean-Claude Trichet.
- Dalsie udaje, ktore ovplyvnia obchodovanie: EU: Composite PMI (10:00), Odhad HDP (11:00), Maloobchodne trzby (11:00).
- Obchodovanie s tymto parom bude pocas dna velmi volatilne.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Uroven 1.5145 by mala zostat ako horna hranica aspon nateraz. Doporucujeme obchodovanie v pasme 1.5065-1.5140 a doporucujem nakup po prelomeni tohto pasma s cielom na 1.5220 EURUSD.
EUR/CZK -
Obchodovanie s CZK bude ovplyvnene nizkou likviditou na trhu. Ako sme si mali moznost vsimnut aj vcera – nizka likvidita, velke kurzove pohyby.
- Dnes nebudu zverejene ziadne ekonomicke udaje. Nevidime velky priestor na posilnenie CZK.
- Rezistencia je na 26.24 a podporna uroven na 25.75-25.80 EURCZK.
USD/CAD-
Je pravdepodobne, ze export stavebneho dreva z Kanady do Ciny sa zvysi, kedze v Shanghaii zacal platit stavebny kodex pre stavby z dreva. To by spolu s podporou novych stavieb mohlo pomoct posunut CAD pod paritu s USD.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Dow Jones uzavrel mierne nizsie, ked 2% prepad cien ropy stiahol so sebou akcie Exxon Mobil Corp. a Chevron Corp. JPMorgan Chase & Co. poklesla na zaklade neistoty spojenej so zmenami pravidiel obchodovania s derivatmi, ktore by mohli znizit prijmy z tychto obchodov.
- Mozna strategia pre dnesny den: Nakupy po poklesoch pred zverejnenim udajov o nezmestnanosti a nasledne uzatvaranie dlhych pozicii pred zverejnenim udajov o ISM Non-Manufacturing.
- Vysvetlenie: Kedze minuly tyzden bol kratky a nezamestnani mali len tri dni na registraciu, tak udaje by mohli byt lepsie, co by mohlo podporit rast akciovych trhov podobne ako aj informacia o tom, ze Bank of America splati 45 mld. USD vladnej pomoci (program TARP) co by mohlo znamenat, ze BoA ma dobry cashflow. Na druhej strane ocakavame horsie udaje o ISM Non-Manufacturing, co by mohlo znamenat korekciu.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1111 s cielom na 1120. Stop pod 1107.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5771 s cielom pri 5834. Stop pod 5730.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5322 s cielom na 5371. Stop pod 5300.
ROPA
- Ropa sa posunula na nizsie urovne po vcerajsom zverejneni vyssich zasob tejto suroviny (zverejnene 2091K vs. -400K ocakavane)
- Vyvoj cien je stale pod vplyvom nejednoznacnosti ekonomickeho ozivenia a mozneho konca recesie.
- Dnes mame na ropu mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 77.10 s cielom na 79.00 USD/barel. Stop pod 76.10.
ZLATO-
Zlato sa posunulo na rekordne urovne okolo 1221 USD/uncu ako alternativa k USD.
- Je vela investorov a spekulantov, ktori sa pozeraju na zlato ako ochranu pred slabnucim USD, ale je potrebne si uvedomit, ze svetove zasoby tohto kovu nie su neobmedzene.
- Vyvoj cien zlata bude aj do buducna vo velkej miere zavisie na vyvoji USD.
- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1213 s cielom na 1223 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1210.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaj po prelomeni urovne 19.09 s cielom na 18.88 USD/uncu. Stop nad 19.17.
EUR/USD
- Obchodovanie s EURUSD by dnes malo byt v znameni udajov z Eurozony. O 13:45 (SEC) ocakavame vyhlasenie ECB o urokovych sadzbach a o 14:30 (SEC) bude mat prejav prezident ECB Jean-Claude Trichet.
- Dalsie udaje, ktore ovplyvnia obchodovanie: EU: Composite PMI (10:00), Odhad HDP (11:00), Maloobchodne trzby (11:00).
- Obchodovanie s tymto parom bude pocas dna velmi volatilne.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Uroven 1.5145 by mala zostat ako horna hranica aspon nateraz. Doporucujeme obchodovanie v pasme 1.5065-1.5140 a doporucujem nakup po prelomeni tohto pasma s cielom na 1.5220 EURUSD.
EUR/CZK -
Obchodovanie s CZK bude ovplyvnene nizkou likviditou na trhu. Ako sme si mali moznost vsimnut aj vcera – nizka likvidita, velke kurzove pohyby.
- Dnes nebudu zverejene ziadne ekonomicke udaje. Nevidime velky priestor na posilnenie CZK.
- Rezistencia je na 26.24 a podporna uroven na 25.75-25.80 EURCZK.
USD/CAD-
Je pravdepodobne, ze export stavebneho dreva z Kanady do Ciny sa zvysi, kedze v Shanghaii zacal platit stavebny kodex pre stavby z dreva. To by spolu s podporou novych stavieb mohlo pomoct posunut CAD pod paritu s USD.
3/12 Daily Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
Today promises to be an important day not so much as a result of the raft of data we have ahead, but more so because several crosses and indices are at the precipice of either breaking major levels or staging significant retracements of recent gains.
In detail on the data front we have the ECB out and of most interest will be what (if anything) they decide to do on the 1yr refinance rate. Any mention of an increase in the price or alternatively a shortening of the loan duration window will send the EURUSD into a hissy fit of unbridled volatility, and my money firmly sits on stops being taken out at the 1.5125/30 level and a strong drive into 1.5165, from there expect some serious profit taking into 1.5050/30. But as I said it will be volatile out there today folks.
On the USDJPY we took out the much anticipated stops above the 87.50 level and got 87.90 on the move. The cross still looks bid but I prefer to fade the move and sell on rallies looking for stops to be placed above 88.30. There should be an orderly (read as boring) move back into 87.20/00 over the course of the remaining week.
We also have the initial and continuing claims out of the US today, and truly expect a mixed bag that will most likely leave the market a little confused, the timing of the release isn’t helped by coinciding with the Trichet press conference.
Euro zone GDP will also be worth keeping an eye on, although at first glance I would think that any negative sentiment expressed in the EURUSD as a result should be used as an opportunity to initiate spec longs.
The AUDUSD is in my view approaching the spot where I would think about starting to fade the rally and I am a seller into 0.9330/50, I think this market is due a squeeze and small clean out.
And finally the Cable is also looking overbought and I look at scaling into shorts between 1.6730 and 1.6825, stops above 1.6865 and limits around 1.6550 and 1.6470. Obviously this is not an intraday trade, but one worth looking at a little closer as this thing is simply now trading a sideways range.
Today promises to be an important day not so much as a result of the raft of data we have ahead, but more so because several crosses and indices are at the precipice of either breaking major levels or staging significant retracements of recent gains.
In detail on the data front we have the ECB out and of most interest will be what (if anything) they decide to do on the 1yr refinance rate. Any mention of an increase in the price or alternatively a shortening of the loan duration window will send the EURUSD into a hissy fit of unbridled volatility, and my money firmly sits on stops being taken out at the 1.5125/30 level and a strong drive into 1.5165, from there expect some serious profit taking into 1.5050/30. But as I said it will be volatile out there today folks.
On the USDJPY we took out the much anticipated stops above the 87.50 level and got 87.90 on the move. The cross still looks bid but I prefer to fade the move and sell on rallies looking for stops to be placed above 88.30. There should be an orderly (read as boring) move back into 87.20/00 over the course of the remaining week.
We also have the initial and continuing claims out of the US today, and truly expect a mixed bag that will most likely leave the market a little confused, the timing of the release isn’t helped by coinciding with the Trichet press conference.
Euro zone GDP will also be worth keeping an eye on, although at first glance I would think that any negative sentiment expressed in the EURUSD as a result should be used as an opportunity to initiate spec longs.
The AUDUSD is in my view approaching the spot where I would think about starting to fade the rally and I am a seller into 0.9330/50, I think this market is due a squeeze and small clean out.
And finally the Cable is also looking overbought and I look at scaling into shorts between 1.6730 and 1.6825, stops above 1.6865 and limits around 1.6550 and 1.6470. Obviously this is not an intraday trade, but one worth looking at a little closer as this thing is simply now trading a sideways range.
02 prosince 2009
2/12 Daily Comment
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).
However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.
In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.
We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.
Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.
Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.
On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.
Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).
However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.
In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.
We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.
Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.
Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.
On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.
01 prosince 2009
1/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Karol Piovarcsy, Saxo Bank
KOVY
Svetove trhy pochytila chut k riziku, ktora sa preniesla najma do obchodovania na komoditnych trhoch. Z hladiska investovania su tieto trhy vhodnym prostriedkom pre diverzifikaciu portfolia a rovnako sluzia aj ako ochrana voci padu USD. Dnes vidime potencial rast k hodnote $1192/tr.uncu.
Obchodovanie tento tyzden sa vsak bude niest v ocakavani Non.Farm payrolls, ktore budu vyhlasene v piatok.
ZLATO
Za posledne tri mesiace zlato stuplo o viac ako 17 percent. Rast dopytu po tejto komodite ukazuje nielen priama cena zlata. Prudko rastie aj cena prepravy, co znamena ze nejde len o operacie financnych trhov, ale ide aj o silny zaujem o fyzicke dodavky, najma zo strany rozvijajucich sa trhov. Ocakavame, ze najblizsi mesiac bude pomerne volatilny, co bude aj dosledkom slavenia vianocnych sviatkov, pocas ktorych zvycajne dochadza k ubytku likvidity. V buducich mesiacoch vsak ocakavame rastuci trend, v ktorom zlato moze otestovat $1300/tr.uncu.
ROPA
Reralny dopyt po rope a energiach je nadalej slaby, no ocakavania investorov udrzuju ropu stale v mierne rastucom pasme. Pokial sa ropa udrzi nad urovnou $75/barrel, vidime potencial dalsieho rastu.
KOVY
Svetove trhy pochytila chut k riziku, ktora sa preniesla najma do obchodovania na komoditnych trhoch. Z hladiska investovania su tieto trhy vhodnym prostriedkom pre diverzifikaciu portfolia a rovnako sluzia aj ako ochrana voci padu USD. Dnes vidime potencial rast k hodnote $1192/tr.uncu.
Obchodovanie tento tyzden sa vsak bude niest v ocakavani Non.Farm payrolls, ktore budu vyhlasene v piatok.
ZLATO
Za posledne tri mesiace zlato stuplo o viac ako 17 percent. Rast dopytu po tejto komodite ukazuje nielen priama cena zlata. Prudko rastie aj cena prepravy, co znamena ze nejde len o operacie financnych trhov, ale ide aj o silny zaujem o fyzicke dodavky, najma zo strany rozvijajucich sa trhov. Ocakavame, ze najblizsi mesiac bude pomerne volatilny, co bude aj dosledkom slavenia vianocnych sviatkov, pocas ktorych zvycajne dochadza k ubytku likvidity. V buducich mesiacoch vsak ocakavame rastuci trend, v ktorom zlato moze otestovat $1300/tr.uncu.
ROPA
Reralny dopyt po rope a energiach je nadalej slaby, no ocakavania investorov udrzuju ropu stale v mierne rastucom pasme. Pokial sa ropa udrzi nad urovnou $75/barrel, vidime potencial dalsieho rastu.
1/12 Daily Market Commentary
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Interesting news and movements overnight led by two factors out of the APAC region. First cab off the rank was the RBA which as the market had already priced in hiked rates by another 25bps (for what was historically the third consecutive month in a row). However this news coupled with a relatively dovish (neutral) accompanying comment and worse than expected building approval data meant that the AUDUSD was quickly sold off on the back of the release and has since then failed to really come back and leave any positive impression on the market.
I remain bearish the cross and look for spikes especially into year end towards 0.9330/50 as good opportunities to sell with what I believe a range of 0.8850/90 to 0.9250 being established into January.
Otherwise we had the BOJ call for an extraordinary meeting at which the idea of emergency QE was being touted with more liquidity measures to be added. Not to be forgotten the topic of a weaker Yen was also on everyone’s lips and that dirty word “intervention” was bandied around quite a bit too.
The long and short of it is that there will be an official press conference at 8am London time today to shed more light on the topic. Initially we had USDJPY spike fairly strongly tot eh tune of a big figure hitting natural supply at the 87.50 level. I still feel that this level should hold for now unless we actually see definitive measures being adopted by the bank. If we do then be assured there are significant stop orders sitting all the way between 87.50 and 87.80/90 which if triggered could see us run another 75bps quite quickly.
On the day we are a little data heavy and the Euro zone leads the charge with unemployment and PMI numbers. The market is currently relatively bullish but I personally think we’ll be seeing a worse unemployment rate printed which could halt the EURUSD progress in its tracks around resistance at 1.5065/70. A break here (unlikely) would take us back (slowly) to 1.5130.
We also have US data in the form of ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending, the ISM number here is of most importance, but as always risk appetite dictates the USD direction.
For your guide I remain short the AUDNZD and now look for 1.2670 to break to confirm the appropriateness of this trade.
And finally as a side note I believe it’s worth keeping an eye on the GBPCAD which has now definitely broken 1.7390 and is firmly setting its sights lower.
www.saxobank.cz
Interesting news and movements overnight led by two factors out of the APAC region. First cab off the rank was the RBA which as the market had already priced in hiked rates by another 25bps (for what was historically the third consecutive month in a row). However this news coupled with a relatively dovish (neutral) accompanying comment and worse than expected building approval data meant that the AUDUSD was quickly sold off on the back of the release and has since then failed to really come back and leave any positive impression on the market.
I remain bearish the cross and look for spikes especially into year end towards 0.9330/50 as good opportunities to sell with what I believe a range of 0.8850/90 to 0.9250 being established into January.
Otherwise we had the BOJ call for an extraordinary meeting at which the idea of emergency QE was being touted with more liquidity measures to be added. Not to be forgotten the topic of a weaker Yen was also on everyone’s lips and that dirty word “intervention” was bandied around quite a bit too.
The long and short of it is that there will be an official press conference at 8am London time today to shed more light on the topic. Initially we had USDJPY spike fairly strongly tot eh tune of a big figure hitting natural supply at the 87.50 level. I still feel that this level should hold for now unless we actually see definitive measures being adopted by the bank. If we do then be assured there are significant stop orders sitting all the way between 87.50 and 87.80/90 which if triggered could see us run another 75bps quite quickly.
On the day we are a little data heavy and the Euro zone leads the charge with unemployment and PMI numbers. The market is currently relatively bullish but I personally think we’ll be seeing a worse unemployment rate printed which could halt the EURUSD progress in its tracks around resistance at 1.5065/70. A break here (unlikely) would take us back (slowly) to 1.5130.
We also have US data in the form of ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending, the ISM number here is of most importance, but as always risk appetite dictates the USD direction.
For your guide I remain short the AUDNZD and now look for 1.2670 to break to confirm the appropriateness of this trade.
And finally as a side note I believe it’s worth keeping an eye on the GBPCAD which has now definitely broken 1.7390 and is firmly setting its sights lower.
www.saxobank.cz
1/12 Daily Market Commentary
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Interesting news and movements overnight led by two factors out of the APAC region. First cab off the rank was the RBA which as the market had already priced in hiked rates by another 25bps (for what was historically the third consecutive month in a row).
However this news coupled with a relatively dovish (neutral) accompanying comment and worse than expected building approval data meant that the AUDUSD was quickly sold off on the back of the release and has since then failed to really come back and leave any positive impression on the market. I remain bearish the cross and look for spikes especially into year end towards 0.9330/50 as good opportunities to sell with what I believe a range of 0.8850/90 to 0.9250 being established into January.
Otherwise we had the BOJ call for an extraordinary meeting at which the idea of emergency QE was being touted with more liquidity measures to be added. Not to be forgotten the topic of a weaker Yen was also on everyone’s lips and that dirty word “intervention” was bandied around quite a bit too.
The long and short of it is that there will be an official press conference at 8am London time today to shed more light on the topic. Initially we had USDJPY spike fairly strongly tot eh tune of a big figure hitting natural supply at the 87.50 level. I still feel that this level should hold for now unless we actually see definitive measures being adopted by the bank. If we do then be assured there are significant stop orders sitting all the way between 87.50 and 87.80/90 which if triggered could see us run another 75bps quite quickly.
On the day we are a little data heavy and the Euro zone leads the charge with unemployment and PMI numbers. The market is currently relatively bullish but I personally think we’ll be seeing a worse unemployment rate printed which could halt the EURUSD progress in its tracks around resistance at 1.5065/70. A break here (unlikely) would take us back (slowly) to 1.5130.
We also have US data in the form of ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending, the ISM number here is of most importance, but as always risk appetite dictates the USD direction.
For your guide I remain short the AUDNZD and now look for 1.2670 to break to confirm the appropriateness of this trade.
And finally as a side note I believe it’s worth keeping an eye on the GBPCAD which has now definitely broken 1.7390 and is firmly setting its sights lower.
Interesting news and movements overnight led by two factors out of the APAC region. First cab off the rank was the RBA which as the market had already priced in hiked rates by another 25bps (for what was historically the third consecutive month in a row).
However this news coupled with a relatively dovish (neutral) accompanying comment and worse than expected building approval data meant that the AUDUSD was quickly sold off on the back of the release and has since then failed to really come back and leave any positive impression on the market. I remain bearish the cross and look for spikes especially into year end towards 0.9330/50 as good opportunities to sell with what I believe a range of 0.8850/90 to 0.9250 being established into January.
Otherwise we had the BOJ call for an extraordinary meeting at which the idea of emergency QE was being touted with more liquidity measures to be added. Not to be forgotten the topic of a weaker Yen was also on everyone’s lips and that dirty word “intervention” was bandied around quite a bit too.
The long and short of it is that there will be an official press conference at 8am London time today to shed more light on the topic. Initially we had USDJPY spike fairly strongly tot eh tune of a big figure hitting natural supply at the 87.50 level. I still feel that this level should hold for now unless we actually see definitive measures being adopted by the bank. If we do then be assured there are significant stop orders sitting all the way between 87.50 and 87.80/90 which if triggered could see us run another 75bps quite quickly.
On the day we are a little data heavy and the Euro zone leads the charge with unemployment and PMI numbers. The market is currently relatively bullish but I personally think we’ll be seeing a worse unemployment rate printed which could halt the EURUSD progress in its tracks around resistance at 1.5065/70. A break here (unlikely) would take us back (slowly) to 1.5130.
We also have US data in the form of ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending, the ISM number here is of most importance, but as always risk appetite dictates the USD direction.
For your guide I remain short the AUDNZD and now look for 1.2670 to break to confirm the appropriateness of this trade.
And finally as a side note I believe it’s worth keeping an eye on the GBPCAD which has now definitely broken 1.7390 and is firmly setting its sights lower.
30 listopadu 2009
30/11 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Saxo Bank
ROPA
Zostava stale po vplyvom nie velmi vyrazneho ekonomickeho ozivenia a pokracujom raste nezamestnanosti v USA. Mierne posuny v cene zapricinuje postoj investorov k riziku a a celkovo vyvoj cien komodit. Obchodovanie vidime stale v pasme 75-80.00 USD/barel.
Dnes mame na ropu mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Doporucujeme nakup po prelomeni urovne 76.70 s cielom na 78.50 USD/barel. Stop pod 75.75.
ZLATO
Zlato sa posunulo mierne nizsie pocas piatkoveho obchodovania, co bolo zapricinene posilnenim USD.
V priebehu tyzdna by zlato malo profitovat z oslabenia USD a posunut sa vyssie urovne. Nevylucujeme vsak korekciu k urovniam 1120 – 1100 USD/uncu s naslednym posunom na 1300 v priebehu nasledujucich tyzdnov.
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujem nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1165 s cielom na 1180 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1158.
Zlato v priebehu posledneho mesiaca atakovalo urovne okolo 1195 USD/uncu. Hlavnym dovodom bolo vyrazne oslabenie USD co bolo zapricinene moznostou vykonavania tzv. Carry Trade obchodov, spekulaciami ako aj diverzifikaciou aktiv niektorymi centralnymi bankami.
Investori si poziciavaju peniaze v mene s nizkymi urokmi (USD), nasledne predavaju USD a investuju do vynosnejsich nedolarovych aktiv. To vedie k velkemu vypredaju USD a jeho oslabeniu.
Zlato predstavovalo v minulom mesiaci vybornu ochranu proti slabnucemu USD co potvrdzuje aj jeho zhodnotenie.
STRIEBRO
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 18.00 s cielom na 17.75 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.10.
www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk
ROPA
Zostava stale po vplyvom nie velmi vyrazneho ekonomickeho ozivenia a pokracujom raste nezamestnanosti v USA. Mierne posuny v cene zapricinuje postoj investorov k riziku a a celkovo vyvoj cien komodit. Obchodovanie vidime stale v pasme 75-80.00 USD/barel.
Dnes mame na ropu mierne pozitivny vyhlad. Doporucujeme nakup po prelomeni urovne 76.70 s cielom na 78.50 USD/barel. Stop pod 75.75.
ZLATO
Zlato sa posunulo mierne nizsie pocas piatkoveho obchodovania, co bolo zapricinene posilnenim USD.
V priebehu tyzdna by zlato malo profitovat z oslabenia USD a posunut sa vyssie urovne. Nevylucujeme vsak korekciu k urovniam 1120 – 1100 USD/uncu s naslednym posunom na 1300 v priebehu nasledujucich tyzdnov.
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne pozitivny. Doporucujem nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1165 s cielom na 1180 USD/uncu. Stop pod 1158.
Zlato v priebehu posledneho mesiaca atakovalo urovne okolo 1195 USD/uncu. Hlavnym dovodom bolo vyrazne oslabenie USD co bolo zapricinene moznostou vykonavania tzv. Carry Trade obchodov, spekulaciami ako aj diverzifikaciou aktiv niektorymi centralnymi bankami.
Investori si poziciavaju peniaze v mene s nizkymi urokmi (USD), nasledne predavaju USD a investuju do vynosnejsich nedolarovych aktiv. To vedie k velkemu vypredaju USD a jeho oslabeniu.
Zlato predstavovalo v minulom mesiaci vybornu ochranu proti slabnucemu USD co potvrdzuje aj jeho zhodnotenie.
STRIEBRO
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 18.00 s cielom na 17.75 USD/uncu. Stop nad 18.10.
www.saxobank.cz www.saxobank.sk
30/11 Weekly comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Trader, Saxo Bank
Last week came to an interesting end and this week promises to offer similar if not slightly more subdued price action. The excitement all stemmed from thin liquidity while the American’s were stuffing themselves full of turkey and Dubai was slowly sinking under the weight of the Palm’s development and mounting unserviceable debt. Neither event should come as a shock to anyone (definitely not the former), at least not to anyone that has a concept of global macroeconomic developments.
Most people should have at least been aware if not entirely wary of the fact that the cranes in Dubai have stood still and silent for almost 9 months now with life practically coming to a standstill in what was going to be the fastest developing economic zone/region of the world.
The lonely emirate was caught up in all the excitement of an overheating economy and decided that now was the time to capitalize and begin massive capital works projects including building the world’s biggest airport to service the hordes of people they were expecting to come through the nation in the coming years.
But as we all know things took a definitive nosedive and understandably this demand that they had counted on had waned significantly, so it should come as no surprise (although clearly on Thurs/Fri it did) that things we going to fall down sooner or later. Things were further complicated not only by thin liquidity and nervous markets not wanting to give away gains made over the last 9 months but also a religious holiday in the region that left no one minding the shop front and able to offer any comment on the issue. Understandably risk firmly fell off the menu and the greenback made a stellar recovery…..
We walk in this morning to the tune of overnight news from the UAE that they will not let the tiny sovereign nation fail and in fact have heard pledges from the UAE central bank regarding helping with liquidity and evaluating on an ad hoc basis the need to cover the odd monthly payment in order to help Dubai out. Shock me! And of course everything has come back in on the news meaning that the greenback is sold off once more (hello risk, my old friend), Dubai CDS have tightened by a factor of about 10% and the markets now look for the ominous month end fixing due later this afternoon.
The week ahead….
Well in a nut shell I expect more volatility, this time however it will focus on data/event risk rather than American’s on holiday or nations’ reneging on debt payments. Otherwise for the most part it should be business as usual, the S&P will slowly grind its way towards 1121, the EURUSD will move accordingly but will be rejected on first attempt at 1.5150/60 and the DXY will very likely look for the lows it found recently.
Data wise as noted above we’re going to be fairly busy this week and the highlights include;
Monday: CAD GDP
Euro Zone CPI
Tuesday: RBA Rate decision (market is 60% pricing in another 25bps)
US ISM Manufacturing
Thursday: ECB Rate decision
UK PMI
Euro zone GDP
Friday: US NFP
CAD Unemployment
So I hear you all ask, what’s my view on the majors? Well I’m glad you asked because here it is;
EURUSD: As noted above this thing is still a buy on dips but I warn of deeper corrections, happy to start averaging in longs from 1.4950 down to 1.4830, looking for 1.5164
GBPUSD: Still a sell on rallies and even these rallies are beginning to finally look tired. 1.6700/50 presents great selling and I look for a return to 1.6250.
USDJPY: Still looks ugly and anything into 87.00/50 is just begging to get hit. No matter the amount of verbal intervention the JPY government is still not prepared to do anything and while this is the case the cross is going looking for 85 and perhaps even lower.
AUDUSD: Strange to keep repeating myself but I sell the cross on rallies into the safety of the previously rejected zone around 0.9300/50 and recommend trading the range looking to pick it back up into 0.9000.
EURGBP: Despite what I wrote above and intuitively you would expect this cross higher, but I suggest keeping an eye on it this week as I think 0.9190/00 marks solid enough resistance to see this thing correct short term into 0.9050.
USDCAD: Looks healthy if you enjoy playing a range based on good macro rationale. 1.0700/50 is great selling territory as I noted late last week and traders should look for the bottom of the range 1.0450/80 to fix profits.
GBPCHF: I remain short half of original position and look to fade the move lower probably closing out the rest of the position gradually looking for 1.6420/50 as the average for profit taking.
AUDNZD: Those following my commentaries will be aware that I am now short this cross at an average of 1.2755 and look for the move below 1.2670 to confirm my suspicions.
www.saxobank.cz
Last week came to an interesting end and this week promises to offer similar if not slightly more subdued price action. The excitement all stemmed from thin liquidity while the American’s were stuffing themselves full of turkey and Dubai was slowly sinking under the weight of the Palm’s development and mounting unserviceable debt. Neither event should come as a shock to anyone (definitely not the former), at least not to anyone that has a concept of global macroeconomic developments.
Most people should have at least been aware if not entirely wary of the fact that the cranes in Dubai have stood still and silent for almost 9 months now with life practically coming to a standstill in what was going to be the fastest developing economic zone/region of the world.
The lonely emirate was caught up in all the excitement of an overheating economy and decided that now was the time to capitalize and begin massive capital works projects including building the world’s biggest airport to service the hordes of people they were expecting to come through the nation in the coming years.
But as we all know things took a definitive nosedive and understandably this demand that they had counted on had waned significantly, so it should come as no surprise (although clearly on Thurs/Fri it did) that things we going to fall down sooner or later. Things were further complicated not only by thin liquidity and nervous markets not wanting to give away gains made over the last 9 months but also a religious holiday in the region that left no one minding the shop front and able to offer any comment on the issue. Understandably risk firmly fell off the menu and the greenback made a stellar recovery…..
We walk in this morning to the tune of overnight news from the UAE that they will not let the tiny sovereign nation fail and in fact have heard pledges from the UAE central bank regarding helping with liquidity and evaluating on an ad hoc basis the need to cover the odd monthly payment in order to help Dubai out. Shock me! And of course everything has come back in on the news meaning that the greenback is sold off once more (hello risk, my old friend), Dubai CDS have tightened by a factor of about 10% and the markets now look for the ominous month end fixing due later this afternoon.
The week ahead….
Well in a nut shell I expect more volatility, this time however it will focus on data/event risk rather than American’s on holiday or nations’ reneging on debt payments. Otherwise for the most part it should be business as usual, the S&P will slowly grind its way towards 1121, the EURUSD will move accordingly but will be rejected on first attempt at 1.5150/60 and the DXY will very likely look for the lows it found recently.
Data wise as noted above we’re going to be fairly busy this week and the highlights include;
Monday: CAD GDP
Euro Zone CPI
Tuesday: RBA Rate decision (market is 60% pricing in another 25bps)
US ISM Manufacturing
Thursday: ECB Rate decision
UK PMI
Euro zone GDP
Friday: US NFP
CAD Unemployment
So I hear you all ask, what’s my view on the majors? Well I’m glad you asked because here it is;
EURUSD: As noted above this thing is still a buy on dips but I warn of deeper corrections, happy to start averaging in longs from 1.4950 down to 1.4830, looking for 1.5164
GBPUSD: Still a sell on rallies and even these rallies are beginning to finally look tired. 1.6700/50 presents great selling and I look for a return to 1.6250.
USDJPY: Still looks ugly and anything into 87.00/50 is just begging to get hit. No matter the amount of verbal intervention the JPY government is still not prepared to do anything and while this is the case the cross is going looking for 85 and perhaps even lower.
AUDUSD: Strange to keep repeating myself but I sell the cross on rallies into the safety of the previously rejected zone around 0.9300/50 and recommend trading the range looking to pick it back up into 0.9000.
EURGBP: Despite what I wrote above and intuitively you would expect this cross higher, but I suggest keeping an eye on it this week as I think 0.9190/00 marks solid enough resistance to see this thing correct short term into 0.9050.
USDCAD: Looks healthy if you enjoy playing a range based on good macro rationale. 1.0700/50 is great selling territory as I noted late last week and traders should look for the bottom of the range 1.0450/80 to fix profits.
GBPCHF: I remain short half of original position and look to fade the move lower probably closing out the rest of the position gradually looking for 1.6420/50 as the average for profit taking.
AUDNZD: Those following my commentaries will be aware that I am now short this cross at an average of 1.2755 and look for the move below 1.2670 to confirm my suspicions.
www.saxobank.cz
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