Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY
- Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v cervenych cislach. Hlavnymi faktormi poklesu cien boli predaj akcii Citigroup Inc., horsie hospodarske vysledky spolocnosti FedEx Corp. a neocakavany narast ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti v USA.
- Citigroup predava nove akcie aby ziskala dostatocne prostriedky na splatenie financnej pomoci od vlady. Vcerajsi predaj prebehol za vyrazne nizku cenu. Kedze predaj bol realizovany za nizsiu cenu ako US vlada zaplatila za akcie (pocas preberania kontroly a poskytovania pomoci), planovany predaj podielu vlady v Citigroup bol odlozeny o 90 dni.
- Akcie spolocnosti FedEx poklesli, ked horsie vysledky boli v ramci ocakavani analytikov. Spolocnost Fedex je „indikatorom“ ekonomickej aktivity po celom svete, kedze prepravuje vsetko od drobnych zasielok az po stroje. Horsie vysledky svedcia a mensej ekonomickej aktivite vo svete.
- Dnes nebudu zverejnene ziadne vyznamne udaje z USA, ale doporucujeme sledovat udaje o IFO (Index podnikatelskej aktivity) z GE o 10:00 SEC.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Deutsche Boerse, Fiat, Fortum, PPR, Reed Elsevier, Saipem, Vallourec.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Accor, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ASML Holding, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, ENI.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaj okolo urovne 5834 s cielom pri 5775. Stop nad 5860.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame pedaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 5220 s cielom na 5176. Stop nad 5238.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1102 s cielom na 1093. Stop nad 1106.
ROPA -
V poslednych dnoch ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD, ktory vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochrana pred inflaciou.
- Na druhej strane vcerajsi narast bol zapricineny lepsimi vyhliadkami US ekonomiky a vacsim poklesom oficialnych zasob ropy.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 73.00 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.70.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1116 s cielom na 1098 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1122.
ZLATO – vyhlad 2010-2014-
Ako hlavny faktor poklesu cien zlata vidime vyrazne posilnenie USD. Kedze zlato, podobne ako aj ostatne komodity sa ocenuje v USD, tak sa rast USD automaticky premietol do poklesu cien.
- Je to dane takisto aj dalsimi faktormi ako mensi zaujem investorov o zlato a komodity ako ochrany pred inflaciou.
- Rast cien zlata do roku 2014 na uroven 1500 USD/uncu moze byt realny, ak by USA zaznamenali vyssiu inflaciu, ktora by viedla k znehodnoteniu USD a vyraznemu rastu cien. Toto nemusi byt az take nepravdepodobne vzhladom na obrovsky objem USD, ktory bol „napumpovany“ do ekonomiky v podobe zachrannych balickov.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.50 s cielom na 17.10 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.70.
EUR/USD
- EURUSD je stale ovplyvnene posilnovanim USD. EUR nepomaha situacia spojena s rozpoctovymi problemami Grecka.
- Zaujimavy vyvoj je medzi EURCHF. V Eurozone je velky prebytok likvidity po nedavnom 12-mesacnom tendri ECB co tlaci urokove sadzby na nizsie urovne. Nasledne investori predavaju EUR a nakupuju CHF, co vyvolava tlak na zhodnotenie CHF. SNB zatial nezasiahla, ale je zaujimave sledovat tento vyvoj. Z kratkodobeho hladiska long EURCHF moze byt zaujimavy obchod, dlhodobo sme vsak naladeny na short EURCHF.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Mozeme vidiet posun na 1.4410, s moznostou dalsej korekcie ku 1.4480 pred dalsim prepadom nizsie. Cielovu uroven vidime na 1.4300 EURUSD.
18 prosince 2009
17 prosince 2009
17/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Nalada investorov sa niesla v znameni neistoty spojenej s rastom urokovych sadzieb, lepsich vysledkov novych zacatych stavieb domov a stabilnej spotrebitelskej inflacie v USA.
- Producenti kovov a energii ako aj spolocnosti z financneho sektora rastli, co by mohlo zamenat, ze inflacia predstavuje riziko do buducna.
- Trh reagoval na vyssiu PPI (rast cien v priemysle) a zaroven protichodny komentar FED-u, ze ponecha urokove sadzby na nizkych urovniach pocas dostatocne dlheho obdobia.
- Dnes doporucujeme sledovat udaje o vyske ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti (14:30 SEC) a tzv. Leading Indicators (16:00 SEC), ktore priamo ovplyvnia akciove trhy.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Ahold, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, Daimler.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatori): France Telecom, L‘Oréal.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5860 s cielom pri 5920. Stop pod 6835.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5280 s cielom na 5330. Stop pod 5260.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1115. Stop pod 1099.
ROPA
- Ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD. Pokles bol vyssi ako narast zapricineny poklesom zasob ropy o 3689k versus ocakavany pokles o 2000k.
- Posilnujuci USD vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochranu pred inflaciou.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 72.50 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.25.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1135 s cielom na 1115 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1143.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.65 s cielom na 17.35 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.80.
EUR/USD
- Vcerajsi komentar FOMC bol potvrdenim, ze FED sa stale riadi podla starych pravidiel. Stabilizacia v oblasti zamestnanosti a v bankovom a financnom sektore podporuje snahy FED-u o postupne stahovanie likvidity z obehu podla planu.
- FED vychadza z politiky prekonania financnej krizy, podpory rastu ekonomiky a minimalizacie inflacneho rizika.
- Vcerajsi komentar nenaznacil casovy horizont zacatia stahovania nadbytocnej likvidity, vyvratil vsak obavy z dlhodobeho znehodnotenia USD. Toto by mohlo znamenat zmenu trendu v EURUSD.
- EUR nepomohlo znizenie ratingu Grecka (Fitch nedavno, dnes v noci aj Standard & Poor) co znamena mensi zaujem investorov o aktiva v Grecku, menej kapitalu, drahsie uvery a zhorsujuce sa podmienky v ekonomike.
- EUR sa stava neatraktivne aj vdaka vyhlaseniam z Bruselu a z niektorych velky krajin EU o moznej pomoci Grecku v pripade potreby (Bail-out). To je fakt, ktory vytvara dalsi tlak na EUR.
- Na EURUSD mame negativny vyhlad. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni k urovni 1.4430-50 s dalsim posunom ku 1.43. Vyraznejsie zhodnotenie vidime len nad urovnou 1.4520.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Nalada investorov sa niesla v znameni neistoty spojenej s rastom urokovych sadzieb, lepsich vysledkov novych zacatych stavieb domov a stabilnej spotrebitelskej inflacie v USA.
- Producenti kovov a energii ako aj spolocnosti z financneho sektora rastli, co by mohlo zamenat, ze inflacia predstavuje riziko do buducna.
- Trh reagoval na vyssiu PPI (rast cien v priemysle) a zaroven protichodny komentar FED-u, ze ponecha urokove sadzby na nizkych urovniach pocas dostatocne dlheho obdobia.
- Dnes doporucujeme sledovat udaje o vyske ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti (14:30 SEC) a tzv. Leading Indicators (16:00 SEC), ktore priamo ovplyvnia akciove trhy.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Ahold, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, Daimler.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatori): France Telecom, L‘Oréal.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5860 s cielom pri 5920. Stop pod 6835.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5280 s cielom na 5330. Stop pod 5260.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1115. Stop pod 1099.
ROPA
- Ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD. Pokles bol vyssi ako narast zapricineny poklesom zasob ropy o 3689k versus ocakavany pokles o 2000k.
- Posilnujuci USD vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochranu pred inflaciou.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 72.50 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.25.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1135 s cielom na 1115 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1143.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.65 s cielom na 17.35 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.80.
EUR/USD
- Vcerajsi komentar FOMC bol potvrdenim, ze FED sa stale riadi podla starych pravidiel. Stabilizacia v oblasti zamestnanosti a v bankovom a financnom sektore podporuje snahy FED-u o postupne stahovanie likvidity z obehu podla planu.
- FED vychadza z politiky prekonania financnej krizy, podpory rastu ekonomiky a minimalizacie inflacneho rizika.
- Vcerajsi komentar nenaznacil casovy horizont zacatia stahovania nadbytocnej likvidity, vyvratil vsak obavy z dlhodobeho znehodnotenia USD. Toto by mohlo znamenat zmenu trendu v EURUSD.
- EUR nepomohlo znizenie ratingu Grecka (Fitch nedavno, dnes v noci aj Standard & Poor) co znamena mensi zaujem investorov o aktiva v Grecku, menej kapitalu, drahsie uvery a zhorsujuce sa podmienky v ekonomike.
- EUR sa stava neatraktivne aj vdaka vyhlaseniam z Bruselu a z niektorych velky krajin EU o moznej pomoci Grecku v pripade potreby (Bail-out). To je fakt, ktory vytvara dalsi tlak na EUR.
- Na EURUSD mame negativny vyhlad. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni k urovni 1.4430-50 s dalsim posunom ku 1.43. Vyraznejsie zhodnotenie vidime len nad urovnou 1.4520.
17/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Nalada investorov sa niesla v znameni neistoty spojenej s rastom urokovych sadzieb, lepsich vysledkov novych zacatych stavieb domov a stabilnej spotrebitelskej inflacie v USA.
- Producenti kovov a energii ako aj spolocnosti z financneho sektora rastli, co by mohlo zamenat, ze inflacia predstavuje riziko do buducna.
- Trh reagoval na vyssiu PPI (rast cien v priemysle) a zaroven protichodny komentar FED-u, ze ponecha urokove sadzby na nizkych urovniach pocas dostatocne dlheho obdobia.
- Dnes doporucujeme sledovat udaje o vyske ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti (14:30 SEC) a tzv. Leading Indicators (16:00 SEC), ktore priamo ovplyvnia akciove trhy.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Ahold, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, Daimler.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatori): France Telecom, L‘Oréal.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5860 s cielom pri 5920. Stop pod 6835.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5280 s cielom na 5330. Stop pod 5260.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1115. Stop pod 1099.
ROPA
- Ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD. Pokles bol vyssi ako narast zapricineny poklesom zasob ropy o 3689k versus ocakavany pokles o 2000k.
- Posilnujuci USD vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochranu pred inflaciou.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 72.50 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.25.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1135 s cielom na 1115 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1143.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.65 s cielom na 17.35 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.80.
EUR/USD
- Vcerajsi komentar FOMC bol potvrdenim, ze FED sa stale riadi podla starych pravidiel. Stabilizacia v oblasti zamestnanosti a v bankovom a financnom sektore podporuje snahy FED-u o postupne stahovanie likvidity z obehu podla planu.
- FED vychadza z politiky prekonania financnej krizy, podpory rastu ekonomiky a minimalizacie inflacneho rizika.
- Vcerajsi komentar nenaznacil casovy horizont zacatia stahovania nadbytocnej likvidity, vyvratil vsak obavy z dlhodobeho znehodnotenia USD. Toto by mohlo znamenat zmenu trendu v EURUSD.
- EUR nepomohlo znizenie ratingu Grecka (Fitch nedavno, dnes v noci aj Standard & Poor) co znamena mensi zaujem investorov o aktiva v Grecku, menej kapitalu, drahsie uvery a zhorsujuce sa podmienky v ekonomike.
- EUR sa stava neatraktivne aj vdaka vyhlaseniam z Bruselu a z niektorych velky krajin EU o moznej pomoci Grecku v pripade potreby (Bail-out). To je fakt, ktory vytvara dalsi tlak na EUR.
- Na EURUSD mame negativny vyhlad. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni k urovni 1.4430-50 s dalsim posunom ku 1.43. Vyraznejsie zhodnotenie vidime len nad urovnou 1.4520.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie zmiesane. Nalada investorov sa niesla v znameni neistoty spojenej s rastom urokovych sadzieb, lepsich vysledkov novych zacatych stavieb domov a stabilnej spotrebitelskej inflacie v USA.
- Producenti kovov a energii ako aj spolocnosti z financneho sektora rastli, co by mohlo zamenat, ze inflacia predstavuje riziko do buducna.
- Trh reagoval na vyssiu PPI (rast cien v priemysle) a zaroven protichodny komentar FED-u, ze ponecha urokove sadzby na nizkych urovniach pocas dostatocne dlheho obdobia.
- Dnes doporucujeme sledovat udaje o vyske ziadosti o podporu v nezamestnanosti (14:30 SEC) a tzv. Leading Indicators (16:00 SEC), ktore priamo ovplyvnia akciove trhy.
- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Ahold, Akzo Nobel, Alcatel – Lucent, Alstom, ArcelorMittal, Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, Daimler.
- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatori): France Telecom, L‘Oréal.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5860 s cielom pri 5920. Stop pod 6835.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 5280 s cielom na 5330. Stop pod 5260.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch smerom ku 1104 s cielom na 1115. Stop pod 1099.
ROPA
- Ceny ropy poklesli ako reakcia na posilnujuci sa USD. Pokles bol vyssi ako narast zapricineny poklesom zasob ropy o 3689k versus ocakavany pokles o 2000k.
- Posilnujuci USD vyvolava mensi zaujem investorov o komodity ako ochranu pred inflaciou.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje okolo urovne 72.50 s cielom na 71.00 USD/barel. Stop nad 73.25.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni ku 1135 s cielom na 1115 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1143.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 17.65 s cielom na 17.35 USD/uncu. Stop nad 17.80.
EUR/USD
- Vcerajsi komentar FOMC bol potvrdenim, ze FED sa stale riadi podla starych pravidiel. Stabilizacia v oblasti zamestnanosti a v bankovom a financnom sektore podporuje snahy FED-u o postupne stahovanie likvidity z obehu podla planu.
- FED vychadza z politiky prekonania financnej krizy, podpory rastu ekonomiky a minimalizacie inflacneho rizika.
- Vcerajsi komentar nenaznacil casovy horizont zacatia stahovania nadbytocnej likvidity, vyvratil vsak obavy z dlhodobeho znehodnotenia USD. Toto by mohlo znamenat zmenu trendu v EURUSD.
- EUR nepomohlo znizenie ratingu Grecka (Fitch nedavno, dnes v noci aj Standard & Poor) co znamena mensi zaujem investorov o aktiva v Grecku, menej kapitalu, drahsie uvery a zhorsujuce sa podmienky v ekonomike.
- EUR sa stava neatraktivne aj vdaka vyhlaseniam z Bruselu a z niektorych velky krajin EU o moznej pomoci Grecku v pripade potreby (Bail-out). To je fakt, ktory vytvara dalsi tlak na EUR.
- Na EURUSD mame negativny vyhlad. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni k urovni 1.4430-50 s dalsim posunom ku 1.43. Vyraznejsie zhodnotenie vidime len nad urovnou 1.4520.
16 prosince 2009
16/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Radim Dohnal, Saxo Bank
ZLATO
I na dnešek jsme naladěni negativně. Bojíme se dalšího posilování dolaru, což většinou vede ke slabšímu zlatu. Pro dnešek bychom doporučili opatrný prodej pokud se zlato dostane na 1135, s cílem 1115.
ROPA
Na cenu ropy má aktuálně vliv situace v Nigérii a samozřejmě vztah k riziku. I ropu doporučujeme prodávat, to od úrovně 71,28, s cílem 70 UDS/barel. Jistě bude záležet na dnešním komentáři FOMC dnes večer.
ZLATO
I na dnešek jsme naladěni negativně. Bojíme se dalšího posilování dolaru, což většinou vede ke slabšímu zlatu. Pro dnešek bychom doporučili opatrný prodej pokud se zlato dostane na 1135, s cílem 1115.
ROPA
Na cenu ropy má aktuálně vliv situace v Nigérii a samozřejmě vztah k riziku. I ropu doporučujeme prodávat, to od úrovně 71,28, s cílem 70 UDS/barel. Jistě bude záležet na dnešním komentáři FOMC dnes večer.
16/12 Trader's Diary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
A great night to be an Australian mortgage holder as deputy RBA Governor Battelino commented in no uncertain terms that thanks to the greed of local Australian banks the job of the RBA in raising rates has effectively been done….
Well sort of. What he did really say was that due to the local institutions hiking rates over and above recent official rises the OCR has now moved into “fair value” or a normal range and that there should now be a leveling out of further moves by the RBA.
This was enough to send the AUD into a tail spin and the cross that I have been bearish for some time on tripped stop orders sitting below the 0.9000 handle and was further helped on its way with disappointing GDP data. Needless to say “Merry Christmas” for me. Looking ahead for this pair I see small squeezes higher that are on a corrective path but I remain bearish and target 0.8780 before the end of this week.
Right enough of my unadulterated happiness, let’s look at the central bank mania that is today. We’ve started off with the Swedish Riks bank which has left rates unchanged and release a more dovish comment this morning than expected but to little avail to the EURSEK cross which at the time of print remains relatively unmoved. Next on the agenda is the Norges bank which promises to hold a surprise 25bps hike, and if failing to deliver on that will undoubtedly provide hawkish commentary that will serve the purpose.
Otherwise we have the FOMC tonight which should leave us breathless… Well not really, our man Ben most likely will not deviate from recent language and continue on the low rates for an extended period rhetoric…. Either way I remain a dollar bull and look for further upside out of the greenback. We also have EZ CPI and UK Unemployment, both of which should ensure that the respective crosses remain capped on small corrective moves higher.
With regard the majors I see the following today;
EURUSD: Capped at 1.4570/80, and I’m a cautious seller into those levels, but warn punters out there to be wary of ugly stops sitting just above.
GBPUSD: Sell, sell, sell…. 1.6350 is the level today if you even see it there and I continue to target 1.6150/00
USDCAD: Play the range, if aint broke don’t fix it. Sell into 1.0650/80 and take them back around 1.0580
USDJPY: Look for a nasty squeeze into 90.30 and from there sell your grandmother, this thing is going lower and I look for 89.30 as the first target followed by clean outs of weak stops into 88.80
AUDUSD: Refer above but the short message is SELL!
AUDNZD: I remain short 25% of my original position and now firmly target 1.2470/50 for limit orders.
A great night to be an Australian mortgage holder as deputy RBA Governor Battelino commented in no uncertain terms that thanks to the greed of local Australian banks the job of the RBA in raising rates has effectively been done….
Well sort of. What he did really say was that due to the local institutions hiking rates over and above recent official rises the OCR has now moved into “fair value” or a normal range and that there should now be a leveling out of further moves by the RBA.
This was enough to send the AUD into a tail spin and the cross that I have been bearish for some time on tripped stop orders sitting below the 0.9000 handle and was further helped on its way with disappointing GDP data. Needless to say “Merry Christmas” for me. Looking ahead for this pair I see small squeezes higher that are on a corrective path but I remain bearish and target 0.8780 before the end of this week.
Right enough of my unadulterated happiness, let’s look at the central bank mania that is today. We’ve started off with the Swedish Riks bank which has left rates unchanged and release a more dovish comment this morning than expected but to little avail to the EURSEK cross which at the time of print remains relatively unmoved. Next on the agenda is the Norges bank which promises to hold a surprise 25bps hike, and if failing to deliver on that will undoubtedly provide hawkish commentary that will serve the purpose.
Otherwise we have the FOMC tonight which should leave us breathless… Well not really, our man Ben most likely will not deviate from recent language and continue on the low rates for an extended period rhetoric…. Either way I remain a dollar bull and look for further upside out of the greenback. We also have EZ CPI and UK Unemployment, both of which should ensure that the respective crosses remain capped on small corrective moves higher.
With regard the majors I see the following today;
EURUSD: Capped at 1.4570/80, and I’m a cautious seller into those levels, but warn punters out there to be wary of ugly stops sitting just above.
GBPUSD: Sell, sell, sell…. 1.6350 is the level today if you even see it there and I continue to target 1.6150/00
USDCAD: Play the range, if aint broke don’t fix it. Sell into 1.0650/80 and take them back around 1.0580
USDJPY: Look for a nasty squeeze into 90.30 and from there sell your grandmother, this thing is going lower and I look for 89.30 as the first target followed by clean outs of weak stops into 88.80
AUDUSD: Refer above but the short message is SELL!
AUDNZD: I remain short 25% of my original position and now firmly target 1.2470/50 for limit orders.
15 prosince 2009
15/12 Trader's Diary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Tight ranges prevail overnight as the theme of tighter volume/liquidity continues and if anything gathers momentum. Everything was confined overnight to practically 40/50 point ranges and the only pairs showing any signs of life were the antipodeans with the AUD touched by RBA minutes highlighting the possibility of a pause in the hike cycle and the CAD reacting in small to the Exxon XTO deal done yesterday with oil moving a little as well.
Elsewhere it was all quiet on the western front and only this morning we walk in to see the EUR, Cable and a few others squeeze ahead of a day jammed with data (mainly out of the US).
On the day look for 1.4550 to hold the downside in EURUSD and the squeeze we’re currently experiencing could well be related to the ZEW data first off the rank this morning. Following this we have a raft of US data as well as the beginning of the 2 day FOMC meeting.
In all fairness I expect the recent recovery in the greenback to continue if not with the same pace as it has thus far. What does this mean for the majors over the coming days? Well in simple terms it means testing the bottom end of recent ranges and the Cable of all pairs to be feeling the pressure the most. I look for 1.6150 to be tested much sooner than most anticipate.
The trade of the day yesterday was to play the range in the USDCAD and it paid well, will it again today? Perhaps is the short answer, but in the meantime I suggest looking at scaling into shorts around the 1.0650/80 levels and look to place stops above 1.0730 with targets to the downside being 1.0570 and below.
To all of you there I say safe helmet wearing and good luck.
Tight ranges prevail overnight as the theme of tighter volume/liquidity continues and if anything gathers momentum. Everything was confined overnight to practically 40/50 point ranges and the only pairs showing any signs of life were the antipodeans with the AUD touched by RBA minutes highlighting the possibility of a pause in the hike cycle and the CAD reacting in small to the Exxon XTO deal done yesterday with oil moving a little as well.
Elsewhere it was all quiet on the western front and only this morning we walk in to see the EUR, Cable and a few others squeeze ahead of a day jammed with data (mainly out of the US).
On the day look for 1.4550 to hold the downside in EURUSD and the squeeze we’re currently experiencing could well be related to the ZEW data first off the rank this morning. Following this we have a raft of US data as well as the beginning of the 2 day FOMC meeting.
In all fairness I expect the recent recovery in the greenback to continue if not with the same pace as it has thus far. What does this mean for the majors over the coming days? Well in simple terms it means testing the bottom end of recent ranges and the Cable of all pairs to be feeling the pressure the most. I look for 1.6150 to be tested much sooner than most anticipate.
The trade of the day yesterday was to play the range in the USDCAD and it paid well, will it again today? Perhaps is the short answer, but in the meantime I suggest looking at scaling into shorts around the 1.0650/80 levels and look to place stops above 1.0730 with targets to the downside being 1.0570 and below.
To all of you there I say safe helmet wearing and good luck.
15/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v ciernych cislach. Ako hlavny faktor bol tzv. Bail-out vo vyske 10 mld. USD spolocnosti Nakheel PJSC (sucast Dubai World, ktora sa zaobera investiciami do nehnutelnosti) a informacia, ze Exxon Corp. suhlasila s kupou spolocnosti XTO Energy Inc. (producent zemneho plynu). Dana operacia sa pohybuje v rovine 31 mld. USD, co predstavuje najvacsie prevzatie energetickej spolocnosti od roku 2006.
- Akcie Citigroup Inc. poklesli po tom co, spolocnost vyhlasila, ze sa dohodla s regulacnymi organmi na splateni 20 mld. USD financnej pomoci od US vlady prostrednictvom emisie novych akcii a dlhopisov. Tato sprava spolu s informaciou o zaujme U.S. Treasury Department predat akcie v hodnote 5 mld. USD, ktore vlastni US vlada a nasledne aj zvysok v priebehu dalsich 12 mesiacov vyrazne posunulo ceny akcii Citigroup na trojmesacne minima.
- Dnesny den bude velmi rusny vzhladom na zverejnenie mnozstva dolezitych ekonomickych ukazovatelov na oboch stranach Atlantiku.
- Dnesne doporucenie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Akzo Nobel, Allianz, Bayer, EADS, Enel, Essilor, Finmeccanica, Fortum, France Telecom, GDF Suez.
- Dnesne doporucenie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Banco Santander, Fortis, Siemens, Sodexho.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 5793 s cielom pri 5764. Stop nad 5811.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 5298 s cielom na 5260. Stop nad 5318.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1117 s cielom na 1110. Stop nad 1117.
ROPA -
Zaujem investorov o nakup ropy, ktorej cena bola pod urovnou 70 USD/barel ako dobrej prilezistosti pomohol rope sa vysplhat z dvojmesacnych minim. Ropa spadla na tieto urovne na zaklade udajov o poklese priemyselnej produkcie v Europe a malom zlepseni sa spotrebitelskej dovery v Japonsku.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je neutralny. Je pravdepodobne, ze sa ropa bude obchodovat v pasme 69.50-70.25 USD/barel. Ocakavame vsak prelomenie tohto pasma oboma smermi.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny. Je pravdepodobne, ze sa bude obchodovat v pasme 1120 - 1128 USD/uncu. Je pritomne aj riziko prelomenia tohto pasma smerom k podpornej urovni 1110.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 17.27 smerom ku 17.10 USD/uncu. Ak nie, obchodovanie zostane v pasme 17.27-17.43.
EUR/USD
- Reakcia EURUSD na bail-out Dubai World bola velmi vlazna. Ziaden vyrazny narast EURUSD nenastal, co len potvrdzuje, ze vplyv averzie k riziku na EURUSD je mensi ako bol v minulosti.
- Tento tyzden nam poskytne dostatok ekonomicky dat, z ktorych by hlavne dnesne data mohli podporit USD.
- Udaje o PPI (ukazovat rastu cien v priemysle) by mohli byt klucove, kedze vyrazny narast by mohol znamet, ze FED by bol nuteny v pripade vyssej inflacie zacat zvysovat urokove sadzby podstatne skor ako sa predpokladalo.
- Je vsak mozne, ze tieto udaje nebudu mat velky vplyv na EURUSD, kedze trhy sa sustredia na zatrajsi komentar FED-u, ktory by mohol naznacit dalsie smerovanie urokovaj politiky.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavame dalsiu konsolidaciu v pasme 1.4600-80, ale doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni. V pripade posunu nad 1.4715 doporucujeme prestat predavat po zhodnoteni.
EUR/CZK -
Zakladne predpoklady obchodovania s CZK zostavaju nezmene. Zajtrajsie zasadanie CNB by mohlo priniest zaujimavy vyvoj v oblasti vysky urokovych sazdieb.
- CZK je pod vplyvom obchodovania na akciovych trhoch a USD, a obchodovanie zostava v uzkom pasme pred zajtrajsim komentarom FED-u, ktory by mohol priniest ozivenie.
- Rezistencia je na 26.168 a podporna uroven na 25.66 EURCZK.
AKCIOVE TRHY-
Americke akciove trhy ukoncili obchodovanie v ciernych cislach. Ako hlavny faktor bol tzv. Bail-out vo vyske 10 mld. USD spolocnosti Nakheel PJSC (sucast Dubai World, ktora sa zaobera investiciami do nehnutelnosti) a informacia, ze Exxon Corp. suhlasila s kupou spolocnosti XTO Energy Inc. (producent zemneho plynu). Dana operacia sa pohybuje v rovine 31 mld. USD, co predstavuje najvacsie prevzatie energetickej spolocnosti od roku 2006.
- Akcie Citigroup Inc. poklesli po tom co, spolocnost vyhlasila, ze sa dohodla s regulacnymi organmi na splateni 20 mld. USD financnej pomoci od US vlady prostrednictvom emisie novych akcii a dlhopisov. Tato sprava spolu s informaciou o zaujme U.S. Treasury Department predat akcie v hodnote 5 mld. USD, ktore vlastni US vlada a nasledne aj zvysok v priebehu dalsich 12 mesiacov vyrazne posunulo ceny akcii Citigroup na trojmesacne minima.
- Dnesny den bude velmi rusny vzhladom na zverejnenie mnozstva dolezitych ekonomickych ukazovatelov na oboch stranach Atlantiku.
- Dnesne doporucenie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Akzo Nobel, Allianz, Bayer, EADS, Enel, Essilor, Finmeccanica, Fortum, France Telecom, GDF Suez.
- Dnesne doporucenie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Banco Santander, Fortis, Siemens, Sodexho.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 5793 s cielom pri 5764. Stop nad 5811.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po prelomeni urovne 5298 s cielom na 5260. Stop nad 5318.
- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1117 s cielom na 1110. Stop nad 1117.
ROPA -
Zaujem investorov o nakup ropy, ktorej cena bola pod urovnou 70 USD/barel ako dobrej prilezistosti pomohol rope sa vysplhat z dvojmesacnych minim. Ropa spadla na tieto urovne na zaklade udajov o poklese priemyselnej produkcie v Europe a malom zlepseni sa spotrebitelskej dovery v Japonsku.
- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je neutralny. Je pravdepodobne, ze sa ropa bude obchodovat v pasme 69.50-70.25 USD/barel. Ocakavame vsak prelomenie tohto pasma oboma smermi.
ZLATO-
Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny. Je pravdepodobne, ze sa bude obchodovat v pasme 1120 - 1128 USD/uncu. Je pritomne aj riziko prelomenia tohto pasma smerom k podpornej urovni 1110.
STRIEBRO-
Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po prelomeni urovne 17.27 smerom ku 17.10 USD/uncu. Ak nie, obchodovanie zostane v pasme 17.27-17.43.
EUR/USD
- Reakcia EURUSD na bail-out Dubai World bola velmi vlazna. Ziaden vyrazny narast EURUSD nenastal, co len potvrdzuje, ze vplyv averzie k riziku na EURUSD je mensi ako bol v minulosti.
- Tento tyzden nam poskytne dostatok ekonomicky dat, z ktorych by hlavne dnesne data mohli podporit USD.
- Udaje o PPI (ukazovat rastu cien v priemysle) by mohli byt klucove, kedze vyrazny narast by mohol znamet, ze FED by bol nuteny v pripade vyssej inflacie zacat zvysovat urokove sadzby podstatne skor ako sa predpokladalo.
- Je vsak mozne, ze tieto udaje nebudu mat velky vplyv na EURUSD, kedze trhy sa sustredia na zatrajsi komentar FED-u, ktory by mohol naznacit dalsie smerovanie urokovaj politiky.
- Na EURUSD mame mierne negativny vyhlad. Ocakavame dalsiu konsolidaciu v pasme 1.4600-80, ale doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni. V pripade posunu nad 1.4715 doporucujeme prestat predavat po zhodnoteni.
EUR/CZK -
Zakladne predpoklady obchodovania s CZK zostavaju nezmene. Zajtrajsie zasadanie CNB by mohlo priniest zaujimavy vyvoj v oblasti vysky urokovych sazdieb.
- CZK je pod vplyvom obchodovania na akciovych trhoch a USD, a obchodovanie zostava v uzkom pasme pred zajtrajsim komentarom FED-u, ktory by mohol priniest ozivenie.
- Rezistencia je na 26.168 a podporna uroven na 25.66 EURCZK.
14 prosince 2009
14/12 Daily market commentary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Apologies for the delay in writing this but as the last full trading week of the year begins so too does my yearning for it to be over…
It’s been a long year and no doubt much the same for many of you. The usual rules apply this week as they have for many year ends in recent times and that is thin liquidity on the back of lower volumes and subsequently increased volatility with small orders being enough to really shift this market. So where does that leave the view for the week….
Put your helmets on folks it’s going to be boring for the most part, whippy in brief periods and when it does actually move most of all ugly. There will be a series of data/event risks that might light some fireworks which include;
• RBA meeting minutes
• UK CPI and Unemployment
• US PPI
• US and Euro Zone CPI
• FOMC
None of the above should hold any real surprises in store for the market, but there is the ever slim chance that the FOMC hints not at a tightening, but more so simply changes the tone of the language used. Looking to perhaps for the first time in months not use the phrase “for an extended period of time”. Clearly this will give the greenback some more impetus on its recent road to small recovery, but in all likelihood I wouldn’t hold my breath.
So rather than boring you with ranting on about what may or may not happen this week on the data front, I will instead turn straight to the major pairs:
EURUSD: As noted in my daily comment on Friday this thing is range bound and the risk remains to the downside. I would be a seller of rallies all the way into 1.4750 and 1.4800 looking for a final (although improbable) move into 1.4500.
GBPUSD: Cable remains a screaming sell and the cross will find it tough to breach the 1.6500 zone. I sell into rallies and look for potentially sub 1.6100 this week although conservatively 1.6180 should hold the downside.
USDJPY: As per my comments last week, I too am bearish this cross and think that rallies need to be faded. Look for 90.30/80 to cap the up side and more sideways action around the 88 base.
AUDUSD: Equally boring and also sideways… Sound familiar? Fade rallies!
USDCAD: Range 1.0750 to 1.0430. Trade it.
Once more I offer apologies for the delay and rather informal content, but as you can no doubt tell by my tone, it’s deathly quiet out there.
This will be the last weekly outlook for 2009 and shall return in January of the new year, until then I will continue with the daily comments until next week.
Apologies for the delay in writing this but as the last full trading week of the year begins so too does my yearning for it to be over…
It’s been a long year and no doubt much the same for many of you. The usual rules apply this week as they have for many year ends in recent times and that is thin liquidity on the back of lower volumes and subsequently increased volatility with small orders being enough to really shift this market. So where does that leave the view for the week….
Put your helmets on folks it’s going to be boring for the most part, whippy in brief periods and when it does actually move most of all ugly. There will be a series of data/event risks that might light some fireworks which include;
• RBA meeting minutes
• UK CPI and Unemployment
• US PPI
• US and Euro Zone CPI
• FOMC
None of the above should hold any real surprises in store for the market, but there is the ever slim chance that the FOMC hints not at a tightening, but more so simply changes the tone of the language used. Looking to perhaps for the first time in months not use the phrase “for an extended period of time”. Clearly this will give the greenback some more impetus on its recent road to small recovery, but in all likelihood I wouldn’t hold my breath.
So rather than boring you with ranting on about what may or may not happen this week on the data front, I will instead turn straight to the major pairs:
EURUSD: As noted in my daily comment on Friday this thing is range bound and the risk remains to the downside. I would be a seller of rallies all the way into 1.4750 and 1.4800 looking for a final (although improbable) move into 1.4500.
GBPUSD: Cable remains a screaming sell and the cross will find it tough to breach the 1.6500 zone. I sell into rallies and look for potentially sub 1.6100 this week although conservatively 1.6180 should hold the downside.
USDJPY: As per my comments last week, I too am bearish this cross and think that rallies need to be faded. Look for 90.30/80 to cap the up side and more sideways action around the 88 base.
AUDUSD: Equally boring and also sideways… Sound familiar? Fade rallies!
USDCAD: Range 1.0750 to 1.0430. Trade it.
Once more I offer apologies for the delay and rather informal content, but as you can no doubt tell by my tone, it’s deathly quiet out there.
This will be the last weekly outlook for 2009 and shall return in January of the new year, until then I will continue with the daily comments until next week.
14/12 Ekonomický komentár - Kúp, predaj, podrž
Pripravil Karol Piovarcsy, Saxo Bank
KOMODITY
V priebehu poslednych dvoch tyzdnov sme boli svedkami znacneho prepadu cien zlata, dokonca o viac ako 9%. Ostatne komodity sa nachadzaju v podobnom klesajucom trende. Ide o pokles trhu, ktory je charakteristicky pre obdobie Vianoc a konca roka. Medzi hlavne vplyvy patri navrat rizikovych investicii do akciovych trhov, po tom co data z USA nadalej potvrdzuju lepsie ako ocakavane vysledky US ekonomiky. Samozrejme, s tym je spojeny aj posilnujuci USD, ktory je uzko negativne korelovany s komoditnym trhom.
ZLATO
Zlato dnes koriguje svoje minulotyzdnove straty, kde vidime pozitivne signaly dosiahnutia spodnych hranic a pripravy na rast v buducom roku. Za klucove momentalne pokladame hranice okolo 1100 alebo potencialne 1085 USD/u, kde odporucame zlato kupovat.
Vianocne sviatky su charakteristicke nizkou likviditou a vyskou volatilitou. Pre komoditne trhy su typicke fluktuacie cien medzi 10 – 20%. Momentalna nalada na trhu sa vyznacuje zdrzanlivostou velkych hracov, ktori cakaju na potvrdenie sucasnych cien. Ak tento trend potrva, zlato by mohlo tento tyzden oscilovat medzi urovnou 1100 – 1160 USD/u.
ROPA
Okrem posilnujuceho USD cenu ropy tiahnu smerom nadol aj prebytok zasob ropy v USA a rastuca ponuka. Ropna skupina SHELL ziskala minuly tyzden pristup k novym zdrojom irackej ropy, co taktiez potvrdzuje potencial zvysenej ponuky v buducnosti. Ropa sa momentalne pohybuje okolo 70 USD/b. Pokial sa jej podari vratit nad uroven 70, budeme ocakavat pasmo medzi 70 -75 USD/b, avsak pokial ostane pod 70 USD/b, ocakavame dalsi vypredaj.
KOMODITY
V priebehu poslednych dvoch tyzdnov sme boli svedkami znacneho prepadu cien zlata, dokonca o viac ako 9%. Ostatne komodity sa nachadzaju v podobnom klesajucom trende. Ide o pokles trhu, ktory je charakteristicky pre obdobie Vianoc a konca roka. Medzi hlavne vplyvy patri navrat rizikovych investicii do akciovych trhov, po tom co data z USA nadalej potvrdzuju lepsie ako ocakavane vysledky US ekonomiky. Samozrejme, s tym je spojeny aj posilnujuci USD, ktory je uzko negativne korelovany s komoditnym trhom.
ZLATO
Zlato dnes koriguje svoje minulotyzdnove straty, kde vidime pozitivne signaly dosiahnutia spodnych hranic a pripravy na rast v buducom roku. Za klucove momentalne pokladame hranice okolo 1100 alebo potencialne 1085 USD/u, kde odporucame zlato kupovat.
Vianocne sviatky su charakteristicke nizkou likviditou a vyskou volatilitou. Pre komoditne trhy su typicke fluktuacie cien medzi 10 – 20%. Momentalna nalada na trhu sa vyznacuje zdrzanlivostou velkych hracov, ktori cakaju na potvrdenie sucasnych cien. Ak tento trend potrva, zlato by mohlo tento tyzden oscilovat medzi urovnou 1100 – 1160 USD/u.
ROPA
Okrem posilnujuceho USD cenu ropy tiahnu smerom nadol aj prebytok zasob ropy v USA a rastuca ponuka. Ropna skupina SHELL ziskala minuly tyzden pristup k novym zdrojom irackej ropy, co taktiez potvrdzuje potencial zvysenej ponuky v buducnosti. Ropa sa momentalne pohybuje okolo 70 USD/b. Pokial sa jej podari vratit nad uroven 70, budeme ocakavat pasmo medzi 70 -75 USD/b, avsak pokial ostane pod 70 USD/b, ocakavame dalsi vypredaj.
Přihlásit se k odběru:
Příspěvky (Atom)