19 března 2009

19/3 Expiry: April Crude oil (CLJ9) expires this Friday 20th

Expiry: April Crude oil (CLJ9) expires this Friday 20th . Volume is migrating to the May contract (CLK9). We will be closing out open positions Friday 20th at 17:00 GMT. Please roll or close ahead of this time.

19/3 Gold update B/C - Gold fell back in Asia after making a high of $948

Investors took profit after yesterday nights big move last night making the gold decline 1.2% to $932 after rising to more than $948 after the Fed pledged to buy debt to loosen credit and bolster the housing market..

Gold for April delivery is trading around the $930 level…

Technically we’re right back into the trading range of March where strong support is seen at $912 $900 $880 and resistance at $945 $960 $978

19/3 Crude oil Update - oil gains on Fed buy back debt and weaker USD

Crude oil rebounded on renewed optimism that Fed is seeking to purchase about $1 trillion U.S. treasuries, mortgage-backed bonds and other debt. Also the dollar traded near a two-month low ag. The Euro, prompting investors to buy oil as a traditional hedge against inflation..

Despite increasing stockpiles (+1.94 mln barrels yesterday to 353.3 mln) which should be very bearish for oil the factors driving oil up is Fed buy back and weaker dollar and the continuous rally in the stock market.

Oil is trading $48.80.. up 1.4%..

Support is seen at 48.03 46.90 45.90
Resistance (strong) 49.90-50.00

19/3 Crude oil Update - oil gains on Fed buy back debt and weaker USD

Crude oil rebounded on renewed optimism that Fed is seeking to purchase about $1 trillion U.S. treasuries, mortgage-backed bonds and other debt. Also the dollar traded near a two-month low ag. The Euro, prompting investors to buy oil as a traditional hedge against inflation..

Despite increasing stockpiles (+1.94 mln barrels yesterday to 353.3 mln) which should be very bearish for oil the factors driving oil up is Fed buy back and weaker dollar and the continuous rally in the stock market.

Oil is trading $48.80.. up 1.4%..

Support is seen at 48.03 46.90 45.90
Resistance (strong) 49.90-50.00

19/3 A bit of analysis on the FOMC meeting

The Fed shocked the markets last night with aggressive moves to further support credit markets and lower interest rates all along the US yield curve. It massively expanded mortgage backed security purchases, it announced earlier today that the TALF would also be moving into, and most significantly it announced that the Fed would be buying up to $300 billion worth of treasuries – the most direction route to printing money available and not something that the market was looking for. What effect is this having on markets?

EQUITIES – initial reaction is for equities to rally as it helps the rates pictures, which was beginning to look a bit scary as Treasury yields were nearing key levels. This is a bit odd considering the cycnicism we have seen in the past on every move by US officialdom. Today was a bit of shock and awe it seems… 800-808 is a key are in the S&P500.

FIXED INCOME – obviously massively supportive for government treasuries in the short turn – the long end was not ready for this and treasuries have absolutely exploded

CURRENCIES – this goes right to the heart of the theme of competitive devaluation – avoiding deflation by devaluing the currency, which the Fed is engaging in with all guns blazing here. The market has already learned a lesson from the BoE’s similar move at their last meeting, when they also moved aggressively into debt monetization. USDJPY is one of the main movers here as this move brings massive relief to the pressures on interest rate differentials all along the comparative yield curves.

GOLD – gold broke key support before the Fed announcement, only to gain spectacularly after the very aggressive Fed statement with a shocking 40+ dollar gain. This makes sense in light of the theme of competitive devaluation mentione above – that all countries with overwhelming debt burdens (most advanced economies…) are in a race to devalue their currencies in an effort to create inflation and avoid the trap of debt deflation. This drives all currencies weaker versus the world’s only real hard currency….

OUTLOOK: while many will see this aggressive move by the Fed as another nail in the US greenback’s coffin, we are certain of one thing on a macro level: that all rallies in risk appetite/hope are premature at this stage of the game, and that the USD move thus far still seems to be allied with increasing risk appetite. IF the USD is still able to sell-off when equities turn tail further down the road, then USD bears would have a point. Until then, we are suspicious that a return to USD strength may occur as soon as the rally in equities plays itself out. Still, the near term surprise in the Fed’s aggressive stance could push EURUSD toward 1.37-1.39 whereas before we suspected that the upside potential was more limited as we were not anticipating that the Fed would move so aggressively at this time.

18 března 2009

18/3 Oil Inventories out 14:30GMT today

Survey shows 1500K ag 749K last week. Inventories clearly shows that supply is a major problem/factor considering that the demand is not likely to be boosted in the nearest time and most acteers remain bearish on that behalf…

Remember: WTI Crude oil contracts expire on Friday 20th and contracts must be closed or rolled to the May contract (CLK9) before 16:00GMT on Friday.

Support is seen around $46.25 and $45.50
Resistance $50

18/3 Gold update

Gold are trading lower on the third day in London on the rising equities and thereby minimizing the demand for safe haven investments. U.S. economic releases, which showed low producer-price growth and a surprice bounce in housing starts, boosted investor risk appetite and helped undermine safe-harbour demand for gold.

Support at $900 $890
Resistance around $920 $935 $950

17 března 2009

17/3 CEE markets under pressure

Today, the CE3 markets are all under pressure. Earlier today Polish President was reported saying on Reuters that Poland will not be able to adopt the EUR in 2012. There doesn't seem to be much new here as the benefits of joining the EUR for CE3 are no longer a clear cut case. But hedge funds have bought EM for short-term rallies in the recent past, (or some others just getting out of EM shorts) and have been selling USD ag CE3 (as well as in USDMXN) this could push some fresh positions if EM continues to get squeezed

17/3 Komentář

Akcie skončily denní obchodování malým poklesem – s&p500 je níže o 0,4%, ale –Asie ukazuje silný burzovní den podnícený pokračujícím zlepšováním finančních společností a i přes včerejší nové minimum u ukazatele Empire Manufacturing.
Banky se však zdráhají půjčovat a Fed bude muset během doby zvýšit svoji rozvahu, což zvýší inflační očekávání. 10letý TIP se nyní oceňuje při 1,12% inflaci v průměru během dalších 10 let v porovnání s 0,83% minulý týden.
Spolu s klesajícími rozpětími CDS– index Saxo hlavích 100 globálních akcií CDS je nyní na 119, to může mít nepříznivý účinek na posilování USD. Roth z SNB řekl, že SNB bude pokračovat v souvislém bránění posilování CHF, a zdůraznil odhodlání bránit riziku deflace.

17/3 Komentář

Akcie skončily denní obchodování malým poklesem – s&p500 je níže o 0,4%, ale –Asie ukazuje silný burzovní den podnícený pokračujícím zlepšováním finančních společností a i přes včerejší nové minimum u ukazatele Empire Manufacturing.
Banky se však zdráhají půjčovat a Fed bude muset během doby zvýšit svoji rozvahu, což zvýší inflační očekávání. 10letý TIP se nyní oceňuje při 1,12% inflaci v průměru během dalších 10 let v porovnání s 0,83% minulý týden.
Spolu s klesajícími rozpětími CDS– index Saxo hlavích 100 globálních akcií CDS je nyní na 119, to může mít nepříznivý účinek na posilování USD. Roth z SNB řekl, že SNB bude pokračovat v souvislém bránění posilování CHF, a zdůraznil odhodlání bránit riziku deflace.

16 března 2009

16/3 EURGBP

FX: EURGBP’s recent break to the upside saw many shorts covered on the break above 0.9080/85, and prompted a rush to 0.9317/20 last Thursday. Price action has slowed down since then, and the pair now needs to hold above 0.9135 and that 0.9080 level in order to maintain bullish expectations. A warning (to bulls) may be seen on a break back under the 0.9165 level (Friday morning’s low). Further slippage back into the 0.9165/9135 zone should not be discounted, but a break below 0.9110 seems unlikely at this stage. Resistance seen at 0.9240/45, then 0.9295, with supports at 0.9165, 0.9135 and 0.9110.

16/3 EURUSD makes a steady recovery

FX: EURUSD has made a steady recovery from its early March lows near 1.2450 but now looks to be struggling near the 50-day MA, seen around 1.2932. Supports now noted at 1.2833/35 (last night’s low), and further down at 1.2760 and 1.2725, and resistance seen at 1.2957/60, 1.2990/00 (fairly strong) and then at 1.3075/90. Day-traders are likely to continue to favour the upside while above 1.2925.