Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Interesting news and movements overnight led by two factors out of the APAC region. First cab off the rank was the RBA which as the market had already priced in hiked rates by another 25bps (for what was historically the third consecutive month in a row).
However this news coupled with a relatively dovish (neutral) accompanying comment and worse than expected building approval data meant that the AUDUSD was quickly sold off on the back of the release and has since then failed to really come back and leave any positive impression on the market. I remain bearish the cross and look for spikes especially into year end towards 0.9330/50 as good opportunities to sell with what I believe a range of 0.8850/90 to 0.9250 being established into January.
Otherwise we had the BOJ call for an extraordinary meeting at which the idea of emergency QE was being touted with more liquidity measures to be added. Not to be forgotten the topic of a weaker Yen was also on everyone’s lips and that dirty word “intervention” was bandied around quite a bit too.
The long and short of it is that there will be an official press conference at 8am London time today to shed more light on the topic. Initially we had USDJPY spike fairly strongly tot eh tune of a big figure hitting natural supply at the 87.50 level. I still feel that this level should hold for now unless we actually see definitive measures being adopted by the bank. If we do then be assured there are significant stop orders sitting all the way between 87.50 and 87.80/90 which if triggered could see us run another 75bps quite quickly.
On the day we are a little data heavy and the Euro zone leads the charge with unemployment and PMI numbers. The market is currently relatively bullish but I personally think we’ll be seeing a worse unemployment rate printed which could halt the EURUSD progress in its tracks around resistance at 1.5065/70. A break here (unlikely) would take us back (slowly) to 1.5130.
We also have US data in the form of ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending, the ISM number here is of most importance, but as always risk appetite dictates the USD direction.
For your guide I remain short the AUDNZD and now look for 1.2670 to break to confirm the appropriateness of this trade.
And finally as a side note I believe it’s worth keeping an eye on the GBPCAD which has now definitely broken 1.7390 and is firmly setting its sights lower.
0 komentářů:
Okomentovat