02 února 2009

Crude oil update: 2.february

Not much to add this morning as we have seen three days of quiet range bound trading towards the lower end of the current trading range. This range is today between $39.75 and $47.00 and is defined by recent lows on CLH9 and 50 days MA.

The two attempts we had on the upside last week (43.60 and 43.44) got rejected quite quickly which leaves the risk of further downside risk open. The near month roll has started to widen again (CLH9-CLJ9 at $4.54) as we approach the monthly roll by long only commodity funds.

A potential strike among The United Steelworkers Union could affect 8.7% of refinery capacity leaving the market worried about the supply of products.

Support:  39.75  36.90

Resistance:  43.40  44.70  47.00  48.60

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