24/6 Market update

Today, the ECB and SNB have been engaged in some pretty heavy, market-moving activities. The ECB in a 1-year repo offered to lend 442B EUR on a 1-year basis, putting a downward pressure on shorter interest rates. Rumors had it that the SNB was intervening either directly or indirectly in the FX market to curb the strongish CHF after comments last week from governor Roth. The repo contributed to put risk back on the table and we saw stocks and Eastern European assets rising in the aftermath – especially HUF, which is lifted higher due to the big share of Hungarian mortgages that are CHF-financed.

22/6 FOREX on the NY close

FX on NY Close: an ugly day on Wall Street seemed to inflict the most damage on commodity currencies in FX-land, as the World Bank's pessimistic world growth projections and a resurgent greenback also weighed. Momentum faded a bit later in the day as perhaps as the market is unwilling to make too decisive a move ahead of this Wednesday's important FOMC meeting.

GBP's torrid rally vs. the Euro was finally halted, perhaps as banking stocks have come under heavy fire today.

EURGBP posted a bullish reversal in the daily candlesticks. Scandies were flushed down the toilet on emerging market weakness and risk aversion, with NOK one of the weakest of all the G-10 in today's trading - perhaps on very weak oil market? We are longer term NOK bulls.... The USD looks like it may be on the verge of explosive upside - let's see if the FOMC meeting encourages or rejects that appearance...this could be a very interesting week for FX. Next Update: pre-European FX Market Update.

John Hardy, Consulting FX Strategist, Saxo Bank

10/6 US Fed's Lacker speaking right now

Sees consumer resilience, worst of manufacturing decline has passed, Fed faces challenge of cutting assets to curb inflation...

But…
Dismal news on exports, some constructcion, fiscal stimulus may only have marginal impact, labor market may continue to weaken

John Hardy, Consulting FX Specialist, Saxo Bank

4/6 Forexové trhy

FX: Potom co ECB aj Bank of England nechali úrokové sadzby nezmenené (v súlade s očakávaniami), USD zaznamenal pomerne výrazné posilnenie. Dôvodom boli najmä Trichetove slová o tom, že USA podporujú silnejší dolár. To posunulo EURUSD takmer na doležitú hranicu supportu 1,4070 (support 1,4050). A GBPUSD až k hranici 1,6090. Následne došlo k miernej korekcii.

XAUUSD: zlato sa taktiež dostalo k dôležitej úrovni 960, avšak support ostal neprekonaný. Aj preto zlato znovu na hranici 970. Momentálny vývoj je silne ovlpyvnení eurodolárovým pohybom.

3/6 Crude Oil close to major resistance

Crude Oil close to major resistance
By: Ole S Hansen, Senior Manager, Saxo Bank

Crude oil is up 10% since we broke the 200 daily moving average last week. That was the trigger for the additional strength we have seen recently, combined with the continued weakness in the US dollar.

Also playing in is the verbal intervention we saw at the Opec meeting last week. The meeting agreed to leave production levels unchanged (although there is some suspicion that some countries are producing more than the agreed level) but the Saudis said that the improvement in the global economy suggests a price level of $75 -$80 a barrel may be supportable.

As far as the market is concerned we are approaching a critical level in the low 70s. The Relative Strength Index is as high as it has been for some time suggesting the market is overbought. That means there is an increased near-term risk of a correction.

An RSI above 70 indicates the market might be over stretched and we have seen levels as high as 78.

We expect today’s Department of Energy figures to show an increase in Crude stocks of 1.5 million, compared with a fall of 5.4 million last week.

For Gasoline, to be up 650,000, compared with 248,000 last week.For Distillates, up 900,000 compared with 2.4 million last week.Refinery utilisation is expected to be around 0.5%, compared to 3.3% last week

The market needs a weak number to test the strength of the upside. If the market doesn’t go up we know we are close to the break point.

The near-term upside is around 69 and we could see it reaching 72 but not higher. The increasing downside risk is now defined by the 200 DMA support at 61 with initial support before then at 66.

1/6 Trhy futures, priemyselné kovy

Futures: Cena medi (HGN9) rovnako ako všetky kovy rastie. Dôvodom je oslabujúci dolár ako aj rast priemyslu v Číne. Index nákupných manažérov v Číne (ako najväčšej spotrebnej ekonomiky čo sa týka kovov) bol na úrovni 53,1 bodov čo predčilo očakávania analytikov. Index 6 priemyselných kovov na londýnskej burze tento rok si už polepšil o 31%.

1/6 Trhy futures

Futures: Cena ropy znovu výrazne stúpa a júlový kontrakt CLN9 sa už dostal cez hranicu 68 USD/brl. Podobne rastúci trend pokračuje na zlate (GCQ9), kde sa pomaly blížime k úrovni 1000 usd/oz. Jedným z hlavných faktorov je stále oslabujúci USD, ked dnes znovu stráca voči všetkým hlavným menám.