11 února 2009


Crude Oil failed the upside once again yesterday after the passage of the stimulus plan led to some “Sell the fact” unwinding of long position. The subsequent break through $38 support did not trigger any follow through selling indicating continued range trading.

The monthly roll by long only commodity funds come to an end tomorrow and the spread yesterday settled at $6.21. Today we have the weekly storage numbers and a rise of 2750k in Crude inventories is expected while a modest rise of 500k is expected for Gasoline.

OPEC has once again said that they are determined in working towards restoring balance to the market. In other words they are ready to take whatever decisions that may be necessary during their next scheduled meeting in Vienna on March 15th.

Support: 3735 3500 3295
Resistance: 4175 4355 4500

Gasoline and Crude stands top and bottom of the commodity return ranking so far this year with RBOB Gasoline showing a gain of 19.4% while Crude is showing a loss of 19.3% (see below).

Gold (GCJ9) rallied strongly yesterday after recent bout of profit taking. The $890 level is for now confirmed as the line in the sand and that gave the market enough confidence to re establish long positions.

Flows into ETF funds continues at record pace with the biggest, SPDR Gold Trust, now holding a record 894.74 metric tons.

The passage of the U.S. stimulus plan yesterday increases the risk of inflation boosting the appeal of Gold as a hedge. As the uncertainty and anxiety among investors are growing they turn to Gold for its perceived safety.

Support: 907 901 890
Resistance: 920 927 938

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