23 února 2009


After all the market noise last week relating to the expiry of March the market can once again focus on a single contract for a while. At least until US Oil begin to roll their 95.000+ long position in April on the 6th March.

Looking at 1st month continuation contract the market has now been trading sideways since the middle of November while the demand has deteriorated. It indicates that OPEC has had some success in stabilizing prices. It remains to be seen if the recent narrowing of time spreads is a confirmation that a bottom has been made.

First major level of resistance can be found at $44,75/90 which is trend line resistance area on both CLJ9 and CLc1. Support is 37.00 followed by 33.10 and then 32.40 (the big one).

The EURUSD broke higher on Friday taking out resistance from the 1,4719 high. This could indicate some consolidation for the Euro near term which again should lend some support to Commodities.

Support: 37.00 33.10 32.40
Resistance: 41.35 43.45 44.75/90 46.34

Gold has made a small pull back from $1007.7 despite a weaker dollar. The continued flow into futures and especially ETF’s should keep the market supported for now. A pull back should find buyers well ahead of main support at $951 with both 970 and 962 offering support on route.

Resistance located at 1008 with nothing above that before the 2008 high at 1034 (1032.70 on spot).

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