02 března 2009

2/3 Oil manages to hold onto last week's gains

After the shift higher last week CLJ9 has traded sideways in a new range between 20 and 50 days moving average which today comes in at $42.55 and $45.40 respectively.

Despite the continued economic weakness and dollar strength Crude has managed to hold onto last week’s gains, a continued sign that the demand and supply situation is getting more balanced.

The long only funds will begin to roll their April position on Friday and it will last between 4 and 5 days. The US Oil fund will roll its 87,000 lots over four days from Friday after having been accused of destabilising the market with their previous decision to roll their whole position in just one day. The recent barrage of negative news about this fund has seen their position shrink from above 95,000 lots last week.

Risk adversity in the market is still high so do not expect any major move higher near term from current levels.

Support: 42.55 41.50 40.00
Resistance: 45.40 48.00

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