Good morning,
Well my enthusiasm remains and for those that like me bought some USDCAD yesterday and/or sold some GBPJPY you should be indeed happy this morning. The GBPJPY in particular had quite the move overnight and some the daily trend line coming it at 146.12 tested and held, but even this should have been enough to secure a profit of around 1% (depending on entry).
Otherwise overnight it was a relatively quiet Asian session with few notable developments. The bulk of the interest came from better than forecast AUD building data and a 7% worse result of the NZD dairy auction which both in their respective ways had legitimate impact on both the southern antipodeans.
This morning we walked into early comments from the ECB’s Stark regarding their unwillingness to aid/bailout Greece from their current situation. Despite being old news (first heard around the 14th of Dec.) it took the EURUSD cross lower and took out some fairly weak stops around the 1.4330 level trading to a low this morning of 1.4285. On the day I still favor this thing lower and would suggest that 1.4450/80 holds the topside today and provides good selling on an intraday basis with stops going in above 1.4530 targeting a return move to 1.4280/50.
On the data front today we’ve got UK PMI as well as Euro zone PPI and of course later tonight the FPMC minutes. On the UK data I would expect (almost irrespective of result) a sell in the Cable and what we’re likely to see is a small squeeze lower before the release looking for around 1.5970/80 and then a move higher into 1.6060/80 at which point I would begin selling it (not ruling out a run higher on stops into 1.6100), the name of the game would be to start small and average in for intraday trades.
In my view the recent small correction of the USD being given back is now all but complete and I would anticipate starting with tonight’s minutes and finishing in Friday’s NFP a stronger showing for the greenback across the board.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the JPY in general and more importantly the JPY crosses, I personally (call it a gut feeling) feel that this currency is in the very near term about to capitulate and start taking back some of its recent losses. The AUDJPY maybe one way to express this view… stay tuned there may be an option strategy in the pipeline soon….
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
0 komentářů:
Okomentovat