Good morning,
Apologies up front for yesterday’s lack of communication but I forgot to mention on Wednesday that I would be travelling on business yesterday. Anyway yesterday we obviously had the BoE and ECB both out and both not changing a solitary thing. The BoE left the door open (sort of) to more QE down the road, while my friend and yours Mr. Trichet dodged questions about Greece like Keanu Reeves dodged bullets in The Matrix….
Headlines were the main highlight of the day and the persistent questions about whether or not Greece will survive the week and if Prudential really is going to buy the Asian arm of AIG kept hitting the market. Subsequently we saw both the EURUSD and Cable do a merry little dance only at the end of the day to end up roughly where they had originally started. I still hold the view that the Cable move is nothing but a corrective one and a little bit of a dead cat bounce especially in light of information overnight that the Singapore Wealth fund amongst others would be underwriting a massive chunk (if not all) of the Pru. deal.
Today the market sits nervously on pins and needles looking for the NFP data this afternoon, all of which is going to be messy thanks in large part to bad weather distorting the number as well as extra people being hired part time for the decade census event in the states. Any way you look at it I still like to think that the event risk will play into USD positive and we should see the greenback trade higher.
On my AUDNZD well what to say, yes I’ve been stopped out and no I don’t think I’m wrong! I still think this AUDUSD is overdone to the topside and I think that in a week where the NZDUSD has been the worst performing cross I’ve been short and caught. But on the other side I sell again (prop book) and look to make my money back.
It’s been a very long week and I hope that I have more inspiration for you next week after I’ve had some rest. Don’t ruin your Friday with a crappy trade today because it’s going to be ugly out there.
Best regards and a good weekend,
Ken Veksler.
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