08 března 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

We will fight them on the beaches!
Well almost…. Merkel and Sarkozy lend their moral support and nothing else…. A weekend of talks and that’s all the Greeks have to show for it. The EURUSD finds a small bid tone but this is more to do with a small USD sell off rather than anything directly related to the Greek tragedy. At the end of the day the austerity package released last week and a lack of commitment from the weekend does little to quell the real trouble still facing the Euro zone and with Portugal stating that any potential austerity package they come forth with will in no way mirror that of Greece (no higher taxes, no freezes on pensions) we still sit in basically the same picture we’ve had for the last 2 weeks. That is to say that the EURUSD still faces downward pressure especially with the new major pivot of 1.3840 being anything but threatened to date.

Amongst the other majors we have Cable staging a nice recovery despite in no change on the bad news front. But ultimately what goes down must come back up and I see this as a corrective (dead cat) bounce rather than a major change in sentiment. 1.5230/50 now holds the key to any real substantive upside or more likely allows for new strategic shorts to be opened. The JPY crosses took a beating on Friday night and subsequently USDJPY and more importantly ERUJPY are both higher this morning. Risk is back (albeit temporarily) and the crosses mirror this. I remain a seller of the USDJPY and prefer not to go near the EURJPY at all at the moment.

My AUDNZD trade is now starting to look a little healthier and persistence pays off as the NZDUSD starts to pare back some gains after being heavily overdone to the downside last week. 1.2980/50 now marks an important level for this cross and with the NZD set to continue its upward correction I look for more positive gains on this trade.

Data wise its deathly quiet today and as such I think the market will look to slowly grind its way back into something more formidable for the remainder of the week rather than anything earth shattering happening today.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

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