12 března 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

The week looks like it will end pretty much the way it started…. Boring and dull.
That said today does hold some event risk in the form of US retail sales, Uni. Of Michigan confidence and Euro Zone Industrial Production data.
Will the market move? Not really!
Let’s start putting everything in perspective looking at the overall macro picture and more importantly price action in the majors over the last few days.

EURUSD: This puppy is range bound and has been for some time, this clearly is not news to anyone and we all know too well that 1.3840 is the upside resistance/pivot and the key to the downside is held firmly by 1.3470/3500. So what happens in between all of that? Well Tuesday next week we have the meeting that everyone’s been waiting for a final showdown between Greece and the rest of Europe. Will they or won’t they help bail those poor Olympians out… Well truly who really cares anymore, the reality of it the only thing getting the EURUSD above 1.3840 is going to be headline rhetoric and a clean out. When and I do mean when we break 1.3840 we should clean out to around 1.4200 at a stretch and then it’s all bets off as we start the long and windy road lower, much lower. For the week I remain a seller of rallies into 1.3750 all the way into 1.3800 with stops (along with everyone else’s above 1.3840).
On the day I look for a clean out of 1.3730 stops and good offers coming in at 1.3750 but the move will be ugly at best and 40 pips is the best anyone should get out of the intraday market.

Cable: This cross is going higher and I defy any of you to tell me otherwise. I was a cautious buyer a couple of days ago and its proven to be a good trade that I’m hanging onto for the time being. Nothing has fundamentally changed and England is still in the toilet, however with big bad Gordon calling a May 6 election and this move being a corrective bounce there is still some legs left in the old dart up to 1.5230 or 50 at a stretch, anything higher is now overbought and more reason to sell strategically when you see it up there.

USDJPY: Are the Japanese…. Nothing has changed in 2 weeks, we’re range bound and I prefer selling rallies. I target 90.80 and 91.30 as the first point of strategic entry but would expect to see 92.50 print over the course of the next week at which point my grandmother goes on sales to fund my short USDJPY position.

AUDUSD: As much as it pains me to see it and admit it, this cross is going to test 0.9250, all the price action points that way and then we run out of steam and revert to the mean. I remain selling this move and catching a falling knife trying to fade the rally. Nonetheless I hold by my conviction and remain a firm seller especially with the local data starting to fade a little.

USDCAD: When everyone starts calling parity, you know it’s time to buy. As I wrote a couple of days ago this commodity move will revert and we’ll have gold and oil giving up gains which should see the USDCAD run higher into 1.0550. I continue to buy dips.

EURGBP: Snooze, I prefer to play this cross through the legs and avoid the across the ditch rivalry that is driving this cross at the moment. We all know it needs to be higher but is having a hard time getting there…

AUDNZD: And of course my beleaguered pair…. Well as I wrote the other day I now look to cut shorts on dips and start considering fresh shorts at around the 1.3100 handle looking for the AUD to slowly start retracing as per above comment.

Friends I wish you a good weekend and am officially on countdown mode till my return home next week. Fear not I’ll still be on deck for the first few days next week.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

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