Good morning,
Well the FOMC came and went and pretty much as expected no change in rhetoric or tone. The DXY is holding onto precarious support and the risk appetite seems to be in play for the time being as equities continue their grind higher. We had the BOJ decision and also nothing changed as expected, the only exception an increase to the size of the liquidity program with no change to the tenor of the program. It stays at the 3 month mark.
So what does that mean for the majors… Well just like the FOMC the Euro meeting yesterday gave us nothing, not even headlines really and yet the EURUSD is streaming higher looking to test that almighty pivot at 1.3840. Hearing good offers just ahead and after getting to 1.3817 overnight we come off a little this morning. I remain a firm believer that we will be through this level in the next 24hrs and the myriad of stops sitting between 1.3855 and 1.3870 should take us to 1.3900 on first attempt of cleanout. The downside looks well bid in and around the 1.3770 level with more significant bids coming just under 1.3750. I am neither a buyer nor seller today but as noted look for more upside on the day. Currently getting splinters from sitting on the fence.
The Cable storms ahead this morning and more upside cleanout is expected on what is no longer a dead cat bounce. I look for 1.5330850 to be tested before the end of this week and in all likelihood to hold whereby I would suggest initiating fresh shorts. On the day look for dips into 1.5160/70 to be relatively well supported with good bids sitting around there.
The USDJPY is more boredom in a teacup and I remain equally bored….. Same story different day, sell rallies and look for a break below 89.80 for more downside excitement.
The AUD and in turn NZD had an interesting night on the back of data and technical levels/stops getting taken out in the AUDNZD. The AUD ramped out to a high of 0.9215 while the NZD was the clear outperformer on the night taking a high of 0.7133. My AUDNZD position look healthier this morning and having cleared my watermark of confirmation (the 20 period moving average) I now look for further downside and take back remaining shorts around the 1.2850 and 1.2800 levels. Don’t be fooled this AUD is still well bid and won’t rest until we see 0.9250, but I remain bearish and look to fade the rally selling into it today and taking back shorts in the medium term around 0.9130 and 0.9050.
On the data front today we have UK unemployment and US PPI. I don’t expect either to have a huge impact but would imagine there is some buy the rumor sell the fat price action currently in the Cable ahead of this release.
That about does it folks….
I fly tomorrow and won’t be back in the office until mid April at which point (after a couple of days to get back into the market) I will resume my regular commentary.
Good luck out there and happy trading… I’ll be on a beach drinking cocktails.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
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